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Iranian Chill Thread

aryobarzan

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Now for beter news..

Adrebil city in north west Iran under the winter snow.
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Oldman1

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The Russian tanks have reactive armor and active protection systems. Not to mention the tank in the video looked like an old rusted out T-54, which was also stationary. Using infrared sensors, Russian tanks and drones will likely spot these ATGM teams before they can make a move. The Ukrainians may destroy a few tanks here and there, but in the end Ukraine will get steamrolled badly.

LOL! If the Russians can trust their reactive armor and active protection system they wouldn't need to put a cage on top of their tanks unless they don't have the confidence to protect the top weakness part of the tank, any tank in any country in that matter. Trust me, the Javelin won't have a hard time hitting a moving tank either.

First missile was a French Milan, similar to the TOW. Second missile launch was the Javelin. You can see why the Russians want to put the cage on the roof of the turret. And the Ukranians are showing in the video that the cage is still useless again it.

This will go about as well for the US as the Afghan army vs Taliban. It might be even more embaressing. Last time, when Russia invaded Crimea, the majority of Ukrainian troops joined Russia. In a recent survey, 40% of Ukrainians responded that Ukraine and Russia are one people, one nation. Russia has sabotage units embedded inside the Ukrainian army. Ukraine has no chance against Russia.

The Ukrainians can't even beat Russian separatists after 10 years and the US has a terrible track record when it comes to training foreign armies. Look what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is likely to be another embarrassment for Washington. Most military analysts believe that the Ukrainian military will last a few days to a few weeks at most. Many believe that the Russians could take Kiev in a matter of hours if they set that as an objective.

Btw Ukraine only has about 50 Javelin launchers and a few hundred missiles. Realistically their own Stugna-P ATGMs are more lethal. Their range exceeds that of the Javelin and the Ukrainas have hundreds of launchers. However in the end it won't change the outcome.

If the Ukranians want to join Russia then go ahead, don't need to launch an invasion under the guise of protecting the Russian people or use Green Men and claim they are not Russian but local Ukrainians like last time. All we know is that the Russians seem to be ready to fire on their brothers.
 

Stryker1982

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LOL! If the Russians can trust their reactive armor and active protection system they wouldn't need to put a cage on top of their tanks unless they don't have the confidence to protect the top weakness part of the tank, any tank in any country in that matter. Trust me, the Javelin won't have a hard time hitting a moving tank either.

First missile was a French Milan, similar to the TOW. Second missile launch was the Javelin. You can see why the Russians want to put the cage on the roof of the turret. And the Ukranians are showing in the video that the cage is still useless again it.



If the Ukranians want to join Russia then go ahead, don't need to launch an invasion under the guise of protecting the Russian people or use Green Men and claim they are not Russian but local Ukrainians like last time. All we know is that the Russians seem to be ready to fire on their brothers.

They will take losses that's for sure, which of course is to be expected, but it is also expected that they will be able to sieze control of the sky, and as you know well given your knowledge of USAF. Once a country takes control of the airspace over their battalions, it's pretty much over for anyone attempting to confront armour on armour.

Hence, I believe the prevalence of these javelins is to compensate for this weakness (low footprint, highly lethal, but low overall firepower), but it is doubtful they can actually stop a major offensive. Once they expose themselves when firing, ISR aircraft might pick up their firing positions.

In my opinion, their best bet is to do everything they can to deny Russia from ease of access of the airspace over their units and then they may be able to stop them with special forces equipped with javelins and armour but if you observe on paper, Russia has an advantage in virtually ever metric, so some brilliant strategy & logistics will be required here. I'm not confident they can succeed overall.
 

Oldman1

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They will take losses that's for sure, which of course is to be expected, but it is also expected that they will be able to sieze control of the sky, and as you know well given your knowledge of USAF. Once a country takes control of the airspace over their battalions, it's pretty much over for anyone attempting to confront armour on armour.

Hence, I believe the prevalence of these javelins is to compensate for this weakness (low footprint, highly lethal, but low overall firepower), but it is doubtful they can actually stop a major offensive. Once they expose themselves when firing, ISR aircraft might pick up their firing positions.

In my opinion, their best bet is to do everything they can to deny Russia from ease of access of the airspace over their units and then they may be able to stop them with special forces equipped with javelins and armour but if you observe on paper, Russia has an advantage in virtually ever metric, so some brilliant strategy & logistics will be required here. I'm not confident they can succeed overall.

Best thing to do is pretty much guerilla warfare and fighting in urban combat. As you saw in Syria the Russians avoided fighting that and allow the Syrian Army handle most of the dirty work along with the Iranian advisors and other militias supported by Iran and Syria. Inflict enough casualties and the Russian people will pressure Putin to get out of there.
 

Stryker1982

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Best thing to do is pretty much guerilla warfare and fighting in urban combat. As you saw in Syria the Russians avoided fighting that and allow the Syrian Army handle most of the dirty work along with the Iranian advisors and other militias supported by Iran and Syria. Inflict enough casualties and the Russian people will pressure Putin to get out of there.
I think they will probably be very finesse about it, and avoid cities and urban fighting precisely for the reason you said.

If they can confidently control large parts of the airspace. They can rapidly seize small towns, roads and villages and seek out Ukrainian units to envelop and destroy while avoiding city urban combat, and instead encircling them with reserve units or lighter armoured units?
 

Oldman1

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I think they will probably be very finesse about it, and avoid cities and urban fighting precisely for the reason you said.

If they can confidently control large parts of the airspace. They can rapidly seize small towns, roads and villages and seek out Ukrainian units to envelop and destroy while avoiding city urban combat, and instead encircling them with reserve units or lighter armoured units?

Controlling large parts of airspace is still not controlling the ground, still have to have boots on the ground hence Russia is sending more than 150k troops in to occupy their objectives. In Syria its the same thing, they would bomb from the air while Syrian Army would take land inch by inch. Same thing happened in Iraq where the U.S. led air force and artillery provide most of the bombing while the Iraqi Army and Iran backed militias as well as the Kurds took ground.
 

sha ah

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How delusional are you ? Russia took Crimea without firing a shot. Most of the Ukrainians defected to Russia.

Mark my words, Russia will annihilate anything that moves and once they swarm in, nothing will stop their advance.

The Ukrainian units that actually try putting up a fight will be enveloped and quickly forced to surrender. Once Kiev is surrounded its basically game over. The government will have no choice but to concede to Russia's demands and even pay repairations if that's what Russia wants.

EU and NATO can't do a damn thing. The EU depends on Russia for all of their energy needs. Silly Germans just shut down half of their nuclear plants as well. They are in a very vulnerable spot with the cold weather.

Analysts are saying that before Russia goes in, they will shut off Ukraine's supply of gas so that when the Russians do roll in, they will be cheered and seen as liberators. Once Russia shuts off the heat, that by itself might make the Ukrainians surrender but we will see how tough the Ukranian neo Nazis are once once they run out of warmth.

The Russians tried being reasonable but NATO keeps expanding and trying to surround Russia. The Russians want to keep Ukraine as a buffer between NATO and Russia. The Russians are trying to avoid conflict. It seems that NATO is looking to slowly surround Russia from all sides. Well guess what, Russia is not going to let that happen. They will now launch a pre-emptive strike to secure their flanks. Georgia was once move, Crimea another and this one will happen just as easily.

Look at these maps and tell me, who is threatening whose security ? It's pretty obvious. Russia can't allow Belarus, Georgia or Ukraine to join the western sphere. Putin is actually promoting peace, the west, US and NATO are the warmongers here. The US has been at war 92% of the time since 1776. Don't tell me that the US/NATO are promoting peace.

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Controlling large parts of airspace is still not controlling the ground, still have to have boots on the ground hence Russia is sending more than 150k troops in to occupy their objectives. In Syria its the same thing, they would bomb from the air while Syrian Army would take land inch by inch. Same thing happened in Iraq where the U.S. led air force and artillery provide most of the bombing while the Iraqi Army and Iran backed militias as well as the Kurds took ground.
 

sha ah

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In the last 6 days Iran has administered 9.2 million Covid-19 vaccine inoculations. That's an average of approximately 1.5 million shots a day, the highest since the campaign began. Booster shots saw a huge surge at 8.5 million shots in the last 6 days. It seems as if no more than 70% or so of Iran's total population will be fully vaccinated. That's pretty standard among developed nations, with many western nations having lower rates. Among Iran's eligible population the rate of vaccination seems to be at 80-90% easily.

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scimitar19

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Hence, I believe the prevalence of these javelins is to compensate for this weakness (low footprint, highly lethal, but low overall firepower), but it is doubtful they can actually stop a major offensive. Once they expose themselves when firing, ISR aircraft might pick up their firing positions.
I can't stress enough the lethality of Javelin as AT weapon or against infantry that is entrenched. Direct link with a low cost drone and well trained several Javelin teams can massacre entire battalion. Even direct line of sight is now needed when operating this weapon as long as you have a drone to link to Javelin guidance system.
 

925boy

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I think they will probably be very finesse about it, and avoid cities and urban fighting precisely for the reason you said.

If they can confidently control large parts of the airspace. They can rapidly seize small towns, roads and villages and seek out Ukrainian units to envelop and destroy while avoiding city urban combat, and instead encircling them with reserve units or lighter armoured units?
this @Oldman1 seems to have same mentality as F22 raptor guy - they are living on the assumption that AMerica's military power today is the same as it was (relative to other powers) like 10-15 years ago, BUT THAT IS A LIE. THey behave like biden - they talk tough, but AT THE LAST MINUTE, they buckle, or concede.....bluffers!!!! I love how Americans today talk about other countries being weaker or not up to something, because the truth is, they're just projecting the US's current situation - its US today taht is broke and has little space to manuever- US military is avoiding ANY military engagement now that would expose it as unprepared or weak. Let PDF's cyber generals keep talking though.
 

sha ah

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A Houthi drone strike kills 3 at Abu Dhabi airport. The is the furthest the Houthis have been able to strike the Saudi/UAE coalition. The Houthis are increasing their capabilities.

 

Oldman1

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How delusional are you ? Russia took Crimea without firing a shot. Most of the Ukrainians defected to Russia.

You're the one who is delusional. Russia took Crimea without firing a shot under the guise of Green Men and claiming to be local security forces when in reality they were Russians in disguise. Now many Russians are getting killed under the guise of volunteering in fighting in Ukraine.

Mark my words, Russia will annihilate anything that moves and once they swarm in, nothing will stop their advance.

Just like trying to fight the Mujahadeen?

The Ukrainian units that actually try putting up a fight will be enveloped and quickly forced to surrender. Once Kiev is surrounded its basically game over. The government will have no choice but to concede to Russia's demands and even pay repairations if that's what Russia wants.

Considering the current fighting and more advanced weaponry provided by allies in Europe and U.S. don't think they will surrender.



The Russians tried being reasonable but NATO keeps expanding and trying to surround Russia. The Russians want to keep Ukraine as a buffer between NATO and Russia. The Russians are trying to avoid conflict. It seems that NATO is looking to slowly surround Russia from all sides. Well guess what, Russia is not going to let that happen. They will now launch a pre-emptive strike to secure their flanks. Georgia was once move, Crimea another and this one will happen just as easily.

Look at these maps and tell me, who is threatening whose security ? It's pretty obvious. Russia can't allow Belarus, Georgia or Ukraine to join the western sphere. Putin is actually promoting peace, the west, US and NATO are the warmongers here. The US has been at war 92% of the time since 1776. Don't tell me that the US/NATO are promoting peace.

Are the Russians going to invade Finland and Sweden who may want to join NATO? Russia can't tell them what to do. Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO because it prevents them from invading in the future, and since it forces Russia to speed up the timetable, they want to take on Ukraine now before it could be under NATO protection.


Swedish Foreign Minister: Joining NATO Is Up to Us
Russian threats to Ukraine have spurred security conversations in northern Europe.

Ahead of a series of talks next week between Russian officials and NATO, Sweden’s top diplomat underscored that Moscow has no right to dictate which countries can apply to join the trans-Atlantic military alliance.

Sweden, along with neighboring Finland, is not a member of the security alliance. Although Sweden has no current plans to join NATO, it has deepened its cooperation with the bloc in recent years. Russia’s recent threats to Ukraine have spurred conversations about regional security in northern Europe and the Baltic states.

“It should not be up to Russia if we could join or if we could not join NATO,” said Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs Ann Linde in an interview with Foreign Policy on Friday. Linde described Moscow’s demands to curtail NATO’s activity as “astonishing,” noting they would have profound consequences for Sweden’s security if they were accepted.

U.S and European officials are set to meet with their Russian counterparts in a variety of high-stakes meetings as the West looks for diplomatic off-ramps amid fears of a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has demanded a sweeping series of security guarantees, including a halt to any eastward expansion of the bloc and limits on its deployments to recent member states.[/quote][/quote]
 
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