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aryobarzan

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How much do you think Israel is behind this pan-Turk push in Azerbaijan.

Aliyev has essentially declared Iran the #1 enemy of the Republic of Baku, in the video I saw of him today, no longer Armenia, and I have a sense that Israel is trying to fan flames, and encouraging them to incite problems on our norther border to keep us occupied. They could provide all kinds of support in exchange for this. Their is no doubt that many Baku people are pro-Israel and their infiltration is as clear as day.

Khamenei calls it the "Khake Islam" and respectfully he is either putting up a front, or he badly misinformed, because this is "Khake Zion" full of their equipment.

Sooner or later we are going to have to deal with this problem in some way. It cannot be ignored.

It is likely the Artesh and Sepah will be deployed in the North indefinitely, likely for months....
Fully agree Israelis are the main culprits in this..part of plan "B"..Benny has talked about...Turks I am not sure they know their also have a big soft belly and iran can easily make trouble for them with kurds...
 

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How much do you think Israel is behind this pan-Turk push in Azerbaijan.

Aliyev has essentially declared Iran the #1 enemy of the Republic of Baku, in the video I saw of him today, no longer Armenia, and I have a sense that Israel is trying to fan flames, and encouraging them to incite problems on our norther border to keep us occupied. They could provide all kinds of support in exchange for this. Their is no doubt that many Baku people are pro-Israel and their infiltration is as clear as day.

Khamenei calls it the "Khake Islam" and respectfully he is either putting up a front, or he badly misinformed, because this is "Khake Zion" full of their equipment.

Sooner or later we are going to have to deal with this problem in some way. It cannot be ignored.

It is likely the Artesh and Sepah will be deployed in the North indefinitely, likely for months....
It would be really stupid of them not to push Azerbaijan into getting into a conflict with Iran over Pan-Turkish aspirations. This was always going to rear its ugly head sooner or later and the Israelis are desperate to get something going as their cards to hold against Iran are quickly falling away from them.

So as far as I'm concerned, we can safely say with 100000% surety Israel plans on continuing to use Azerbaijan as a means of pressure on Iran.

Now whether or not this manifests into a kinetic-conflict is up for debate as Iranian military forces, especially IRGC aerospace forces will completely level any Azeri threat within the first week if necessary. So it's not really in Azerbaijans best interest to start another conflict right after the one they just had in Nagarno-Karabahk (which was still quite costly in terms of man-power).

Idk, one would hope that Azerbaijan sees the impracticality of all this and their leaders (Aliyev is an ambitious idiot) will not sign-off on such an endeavor but I don't have high-hopes for a peaceful resolution at all. The main driving force for Pan-Turkism has and will be this idea that "turks" the region-over will just up and join their cause and fight against Iran (or whomever) in the name of Pan-Turkish goals. Hopefully this isn't the case and they will find that they're woefully outnumbered.

Maybe Iran should conduct another missile-exercise but use 100s instead of dozens. That should send a resolute message....

Azerbaijan is a problem for Iran no matter how one looks at it. They make zero effort to hide their want to expand "Reclaiming Turkish" lands and their ties to enemy states are clear-cut for all to see.

P.S.: I have nothing against Azerbaijan personally as they are our kin and we share the same history, so I don't want to see a bloody-conflict arise from this at all.
 
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Stryker1982

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It would be really stupid of them not to push Azerbaijan into getting into a conflict with Iran over Pan-Turkish aspirations. This was always going to rear its ugly head sooner or later and the Israelis are desperate to get something going as their cards to hold against Iran are quickly falling away from them.

So as far as I'm concerned, we can safely say with 100000% surety Israel plans on continuing to use Azerbaijan as a means of pressure on Iran.

Now whether or not this manifests into a kinetic-conflict is up for debate as Iranian military forces, especially IRGC aerospace forces will completely level any Azeri threat within the first week if necessary. So it's not really in Azerbaijans best interest to start another conflict right after the one they just had in Nagarno-Karabahk (which was still quite costly in terms of man-power).

Idk, one would hope that Azerbaijan sees the impracticality of all this and their leaders (Aliyev is an ambitious idiot) will not sign-off on such an endeavor but I don't have high-hopes for a peaceful resolution at all. The main driving force for Pan-Turkism has and will be this idea that "turks" the region-over will just up and join their cause and fight against Iran (or whomever) in the name of Pan-Turkish goals. Hopefully this isn't the case and they will find that they're woefully outnumbered.

Maybe Iran should conduct another missile-exercise but use 100s instead of dozens. That should send a resolute message....

Azerbaijan is a problem for Iran no matter how one looks at it. They make zero effort to hide their want to expand "Reclaiming Turkish" lands and their ties to enemy states are clear-cut for all to see.

P.S.: I have nothing against Azerbaijan personally as they are our kin and we share the same history, so I don't want to see a bloody-conflict arise from this at all.
One can't expect them to stay passive while Iran-back forces encircle them. As you say this was and has been a problem from Reza Shah time, time and time again, it rears it's vicious and ugly head around the corner, and we've had to repeatedly batter it back down over the decades, and seems like the head is rearing again.

They will continue to boost their military equipment, and probably train with them as well in air and land drills in the future no doubt.

I like how you call him an ambitious idiot, because that is so true. He is ambitious certainly but he may be Idiotic to the point of making a unrepairable mistake vis a vis Iran. Iran cannot stay idle while being repeated poked by this reared head and some reaction must be shown. We can't be stupid and assume they will somehow drop their ambitions just for the sake of it, this ambition requires push back, and we as Iranians are very good at our foreign policy and more importantly, achieving foreign policy goals. This northfront will likely for the foreseeable future be a thorn that we will have to deal with, and although I am sure the government is reluctant to make military action, it shouldn't be ruled out as the cards are on our side there in terms of the escalation ladder. As long as the Aliyev government remains, this pan-turk aspiration remains, which will be pushed with the military support of Israel. The trick is exactly how to deal with it smartly.

If they try to cut the Armenia-Iran border, they need to be dealt with frankly . When it comes to other countries, we show teeth, but when it comes to them, the leadership has sheathed them. I hope they have smart plans that we cannot see yet.

A little thought experiment, if a resounding response is required for a serious anti-Iran action. Kyurdamir Airbase in central Azerbaijan. can be targeted - To completely destroy the base - assuming a 50m lethal radius, some 94 missiles (some with cluster munitions) are required.

1632802230333.png
 

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Blue In Green

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One can't expect them to stay passive while Iran-back forces encircle them. As you say this was and has been a problem from Reza Shah time, time and time again, it rears it's vicious and ugly head around the corner, and we've had to repeatedly batter it back down over the decades, and seems like the head is rearing again.

They will continue to boost their military equipment, and probably train with them as well in air and land drills in the future no doubt.

I like how you call him an ambitious idiot, because that is so true. He is ambitious certainly but he may be Idiotic to the point of making a unrepairable mistake vis a vis Iran. Iran cannot stay idle while being repeated poked by this reared head and some reaction must be shown. We can't be stupid and assume they will somehow drop their ambitions just for the sake of it, this ambition requires push back, and we as Iranians are very good at our foreign policy and more importantly, achieving foreign policy goals. This northfront will likely for the foreseeable future be a thorn that we will have to deal with, and although I am sure the government is reluctant to make military action, it shouldn't be ruled out as the cards are on our side there in terms of the escalation ladder. As long as the Aliyev government remains, this pan-turk aspiration remains, which will be pushed with the military support of Israel. The trick is exactly how to deal with it smartly.

If they try to cut the Armenia-Iran border, they need to be dealt with frankly . When it comes to other countries, we show teeth, but when it comes to them, the leadership has sheathed them. I hope they have smart plans that we cannot see yet.

A little thought experiment, if a resounding response is required for a serious anti-Iran action. Kyurdamir Airbase in central Azerbaijan. can be targeted - To completely destroy the base - assuming a 50m lethal radius, some 94 missiles (some with cluster munitions) are required.

View attachment 780557
Fully agreed, and well said!

This might be a case where the destruction of one big Azerbaijani military installation by IRGC Aerospace forces (it should be them as this would show all the region that Iran's missiles can and will decimate targets) might be enough to put a stop to any future plans through harsh example. Although I get the feeling Azeri military planers already know this and are hedging their bets that if they get involved in a conflict with Iran, others will step-in on their behalf (or something to that affect). Again, Iran has the overwhelming advantage here, Azerbaijan just had a costly war with a small region that was aligned with Armenia. They would be facing a massive country with vast military resources and battle-proven methods of which they don't have adequate defenses against. It would literally be like shooting fish in a barrel.

It's so sad to even contemplate that blood-kin (Azeris) would be so brainwashed to think that waging a campaign against their own is a good idea. As we've seen with Nagarno-Karabakh. If Azerbaijan loses (and it will), they will be back again later with vengeance, so it's best for Iran to completely quell the problem sooner rather than allowing a potentially hostile entity to grow too much in strength. My hope is that Iran finds a lasting diplomatic solution with Azerbaijan and that behind the scenes, Iran is working intently to make-sure a hot-conflict doesn't arise from this land dispute.

Iran isn't Israel, and it can absorb/take on a small state like Azerbaijan relatively easily. But their will be ramification regardless. One plus is that America's position globally will have less of a bight than it did under Trump or Obama, so this conflict should be more manageable (I think).

My apologies dadash, I don't like to talk in jingoistic fashion as a find it to be completely uncouth and barbaric but this situation leaves me with a feeling of dread.
 

Stryker1982

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Fully agreed, and well said!

This might be a case where the destruction of one big Azerbaijani military installation by IRGC Aerospace forces (it should be them as this would show all the region that Iran's missiles can and will decimate targets) might be enough to put a stop to any future plans through harsh example. Although I get the feeling Azeri military planers already know this and are hedging their bets that if they get involved in a conflict with Iran, others will step-in on their behalf (or something to that affect). Again, Iran has the overwhelming advantage here, Azerbaijan just had a costly war with a small region that was aligned with Armenia. They would be facing a massive country with vast military resources and battle-proven methods of which they don't have adequate defenses against. It would literally be like shooting fish in a barrel.

It's so sad to even contemplate that blood-kin (Azeris) would be so brainwashed to think that waging a campaign against their own is a good idea. As we've seen with Nagarno-Karabakh. If Azerbaijan loses (and it will), they will be back again later with vengeance, so it's best for Iran to completely quell the problem sooner rather than allowing a potentially hostile entity to grow too much in strength. My hope is that Iran finds a lasting diplomatic solution with Azerbaijan and that behind the scenes, Iran is working intently to make-sure a hot-conflict doesn't arise from this land dispute.

Iran isn't Israel, and it can absorb/take on a small state like Azerbaijan relatively easily. But their will be ramification regardless. One plus is that America's position globally will have less of a bight than it did under Trump or Obama, so this conflict should be more manageable (I think).

My apologies dadash, I don't like to talk in jingoistic fashion as a find it to be completely uncouth and barbaric but this situation leaves me with a feeling of dread.
I think we'll just have to play this wack-a-mole game for a while as Israel is clearly the main threat here and would love to see blood-kin fighting each other. It would be a great mistake, but it can't be avoided if one brother provokes another.
 

aryobarzan

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Being a half Azari Persian myself I can say that if Baku republic wants to play in Israeli hands they are up for a very serious surprise..Historically speaking Azaris are part of the original population that created a land called Persia...they were not conquered people or people who joined the empire later on..They were part of the ORIGINAL group that made up the Persians..and they have remained so for thousands of years to this day.. We should start thinking about how we can re-join this separated piece of land back to the motherland....it was separated from the Iranian mother land only less than 200 years ago by foreign force so it is not that hard to bring her back and that is what Iran should explore..we have time in our side..


Now here is what made me laugh today..

.Why Taliban do not like girls to go to school
1632832469352.png
 
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dani92

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It would be really stupid of them not to push Azerbaijan into getting into a conflict with Iran over Pan-Turkish aspirations. This was always going to rear its ugly head sooner or later and the Israelis are desperate to get something going as their cards to hold against Iran are quickly falling away from them.

So as far as I'm concerned, we can safely say with 100000% surety Israel plans on continuing to use Azerbaijan as a means of pressure on Iran.

Now whether or not this manifests into a kinetic-conflict is up for debate as Iranian military forces, especially IRGC aerospace forces will completely level any Azeri threat within the first week if necessary. So it's not really in Azerbaijans best interest to start another conflict right after the one they just had in Nagarno-Karabahk (which was still quite costly in terms of man-power).

Idk, one would hope that Azerbaijan sees the impracticality of all this and their leaders (Aliyev is an ambitious idiot) will not sign-off on such an endeavor but I don't have high-hopes for a peaceful resolution at all. The main driving force for Pan-Turkism has and will be this idea that "turks" the region-over will just up and join their cause and fight against Iran (or whomever) in the name of Pan-Turkish goals. Hopefully this isn't the case and they will find that they're woefully outnumbered.

Maybe Iran should conduct another missile-exercise but use 100s instead of dozens. That should send a resolute message....

Azerbaijan is a problem for Iran no matter how one looks at it. They make zero effort to hide their want to expand "Reclaiming Turkish" lands and their ties to enemy states are clear-cut for all to see.

P.S.: I have nothing against Azerbaijan personally as they are our kin and we share the same history, so I don't want to see a bloody-conflict arise from this at all.
The others say the republic of Baku can fight Iran just because they have some junk they bought from Israel and they forgot that Iran is a major drone power and Iran’s artillery alans can massacre the republic of Baku army they think they beat Armenia with is weaker and poorer then baku now they can bark at Iran and Russia lol.
Being a half Azari Persian myself I can say that if Baku republic wants to play in Israeli hands they are up for a very serious surprise..Historically speaking Azaris are part of the original population that created a land called Persia...they were not conquered people or people who joined the empire later on..They were part of the ORIGINAL group that made up the Persians..and they have remained so for thousands of years to this day.. We should start thinking about how we can re-join this separated piece of land back to the motherland....it was separated from the Iranian mother land only less than 200 years ago by foreign force so it is not that hard to bring her back and that is what Iran should explore..we have time in our side..


Now here is what made me laugh today..

.Why Taliban do not like girls to go to school
View attachment 780661
It’s funny when they bark and the others while Iran Georgia Russia and Armenia can easily invade them and divide them based on ethnic groups.
There is this afghan donkey who said that the baki republic can defeat Iran I think he confused his assgani army with the taliban with the Iranian army😂.
 
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Being a half Azari Persian myself I can say that if Baku republic wants to play in Israeli hands they are up for a very serious surprise..Historically speaking Azaris are part of the original population that created a land called Persia...they were not conquered people or people who joined the empire later on..They were part of the ORIGINAL group that made up the Persians.
No Foreign force can separate nation.

By the way,is there any serious territorial dispute between Iran and Azerbaijan? If no,then these small skirmishs are not any serious threat i guess.
they forgot that Iran is a major drone power a
Don't forget Azerbaijan's friend" Turkey" they will play decisive role in any Azerbaijan's war
Man what is your dispute? Any territorial issue?
 

dani92

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No Foreign force can separate nation.

By the way,is there any serious territorial dispute between Iran and Azerbaijan? If no,then these small skirmishs are not any serious threat i guess.

Don't forget Azerbaijan's friend" Turkey" they will play decisive role in any Azerbaijan's war
Man what is your dispute? Any territorial issue?
I don’t forget Iran can play the same dirty games against the osmanli clown.

As for territory they claim lands of Iraq and Iran belong to them.
 
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I was thinking today that if iran tests its Atomic Bomb,he will lose all these missiles advantage he has and will have to build strong conventional force.Forexample ,all major world powers are compelled to develop conventional forces because they can't launch Ballistic Missiles on conventional targets.
So if Iran,a declared nuclear state,launches a Ballistic missile on Israel,he will probably panic and will launch Jerico on Iran and in only minutes,Bani Israel and persians will disappear from the face of earth.
So do you want to test nuclear Bomb at sacrifice of this advantage? You will not want to sacrifice it i guess.
As for territory they claim lands of Iraq and Iran belong to them.
Really? I have never heard of it from an azeri.
 

Stryker1982

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I was thinking today that if iran tests its Atomic Bomb,he will lose all these missiles advantage he has and will have to build strong conventional force.Forexample ,all major world powers are compelled to develop conventional forces because they can't launch Ballistic Missiles on conventional targets.
So if Iran,a declared nuclear state,launches a Ballistic missile on Israel,he will probably panic and will launch Jerico on Iran and in only minutes,Bani Israel and persians will disappear from the face of earth.
So do you want to test nuclear Bomb at sacrifice of this advantage? You will not want to sacrifice it i guess.

Really? I have never heard of it from an azeri.
This is the primarily dilemma. If you announce you have a nuclear force of even 5 warheads the idea of simply launching hundreds of ballistic missiles in a major operation is out of the question. The enemy would not know if you used a nuclear or not as we all know if you have enough missiles and clear targets you may be able to wipe out a national military organization in one surgical strike.

It’s not out of the question that Iran could have secret facilities in military bases and mountain bases where IAEA inspectors do not have access to. With tests (known to be completed 20 years ago) and modern day simulations you can probably estimate with a sufficient amount of confidence that the nuclear warhead design works. So it is possible Iran already has the warheads but has not tested them and will keep them as a secret trump card.

In case of conflict where Israel threatens to use nuclear weapons as you mentioned…..Iran announces to the world it has them to create nuclear parity or in fact create conditions for a ceasefire. This of course assumes Iran already has untested warheads and a secret but small stock of uranium and small facility in a mountain military base. Even if discovered access can be denied.
 
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In case of conflict where Israel threatens to use nuclear weapons
I don't think Israel will go nuclear with any country.they have USA on their back so they will simply keep air and naval superiority.
What I am saying is that after iran tests nuclear bomb publicly,he will no longer be able to use Ballistic Missiles on US & Israel in conventional wars due to obvious reasons.
 

Stryker1982

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I don't think Israel will go nuclear with any country.they have USA on their back so they will simply keep air and naval superiority.
What I am saying is that after iran tests nuclear bomb publicly,he will no longer be able to use Ballistic Missiles on US & Israel in conventional wars due to obvious reasons.
I see, in my opinion, only time I’d ever see Iran testing a nuclear warhead as an announcement to the world is to end a war that has already started. In which case, the missiles have already been largely used by that point. Especially if the fighting lasts a few weeks, thousands would’ve been fired by that point. Would be a good way to end a war.

Iran would then only be able to used depressed trajectory missiles, cruise missiles and drones as conventional tools and leave vertical launched ballistic missiles strictly as a nuclear counter force should a 2nd attack occur.
 

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