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Iranian Chill Thread

sha ah

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One of the reasons why Evergrande is facing a crisis now is because the Chinese government set 3 red lines and effectively put the brakes on Evargrande's plans to expand further and attain further financing. Home ownership in China is at 90%, whereas in the US it's at 60% and a large portion of homeowners in China own 2 homes.

The Chinese government will most likely confiscate Evergrande and its assets along with the assets and funds of the greedy tycoons who caused this mess to prevent a massive meltdown. In China everything is planned, nothing happens by accident. With Lehman Brothers, everyone was in the dark until the last minute. This is not the case with Evergrande.

The Chinese reaction to this crisis will be the exact opposite of the American reaction to the recession, which was to use taxpayers money to bailout large corporations. The people behind the 2008 crisis not only got away with it, they all got their bonuses as well, funded for by the US taxpayer. In China, the Communist party reigns supreme, whereas in the US, capitalists reign supreme.

Yes in the last 2 years the USA has printed more money than in the last 100 years. Many western countries have reacted to Covid by borrowing a ton of money and have been giving out money to their citizens like candy. This has led to higher prices and inflation on many household items / staples.

Honestly if the US economy does end up facing some kind of great depression scenario then surely China will take the opportunity to ask export consumers for various kinds of currency instead of only USD as they do now. I'm predicting they might ask Europe for Euros, North America for USD and Asia/Africa for their own RMB (Yuan).

Of course in that case, the USA will feel enraged seeing China as an existential threat to it's position as the worlds sole super power. US war hawks and defense contractors, after Afghanistan, are also clamoring for a war with China and if you recall last time there was a depression in the US it was followed by WW2, which got the US to bounce back from the depression if you recall.

The US will seek a war with China to get out of its slump and retain global hegemony. That is simply their natural instinct. They will fabricate something, anything to ignite a war with China. I expect some sort of provocation or false flag operation, like the chemical weapons attacks in Syria or Gulf of Tonkin incident.

However only time will tell if history will repeat itself, or if this century the unipolar American world order will give way to a new multipolar global order.

ALSO oil prices will most likely rise during a global conflict rather than go down. A depression would cause prices to fall but again I believe that any depression will be quickly followed by a major conflict between the US and China.

Regarding China, there is a massive speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market.

It takes 8-10 years of median household income in US or Europe to buy a home and it takes 30 years of median household income to buy a home in China. Homes are insanely expensive in China (relative to income)

Since banks and bonds offer low interest rates and stock market in China is very volatile, everyone invests in real estate, hoping that home prices will continue rising forever.

Speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market is very similar to asset price bubble in Japan in 1990 prior to them having their Lost Decades.

Construction directly and indirectly is 30% of Chinese GDP and if there will be a housing market crash in China it will have massive consequences for global economy.

It is easy to imagine collapse of home prices in China, leading to bankruptcy of real estate companies and collapse of stock market and bank failures leading to credit crunch and thus reduced investment and consumption, which in turn will result in recession and deflation similar to Japan in 1990s.

All this is also compounded by demographic problems of China, with it having one of the fastest aging societies in the world--and societies with large number of old people tend to consume less meaning deflation problem might get even worse

So it is very real that with the collapse of speculative bubble in China's real estate market, China might have its own Lost Decades and will never surpass US economy.

Meantime in the Western World we have other signals of upcoming crisis:
1) massive debts accumulated by households, corporate sector and governments
2) Central Bank interest rates hitting 0%, meaning monetary policy is no longer effective
3) demographic shift- (with ageing of society we have less consumption in economies where consumption is 70% of GDP)

According to Ray Dalio, major depression happens once in 90-100 years and the last one happened in 1929
Today, with accumulation of massive debts, and with Fed interest rate hitting 0% and with Quantitative easing having little effect on aggregate demand, --- monetary policy is no longer effective

The only option left after the next recession in US is monetization of deficit, when Fed will print money and buy government bonds directly, so government could start a stimulus program.....this will devalue US dollar relative to other currencies, which in turn will result in recessions in export oriented economies of Europe and East Asia.

So, whether the crisis will come from the East or from the West or both, oil prices will go down and this will badly effect oil exporting countries of the Middle East and will have geopolitical consequences across the world
 
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So far the Taliban seems to be dealing with an ISIS insurgency, among others groups resisting them so I'm not too sure how stable the situation in Afghanistan will remain and for how long. Pakistan has basically gone bankrupt funding the Taliban and spending money to arm itself against India.

If China goes to war with the Quad and India, Pakistan will more than likely support China over Kashmir. That will be vital to tie down Indian resources while China goes after India's chickens neck (Siliguri corridor). If China manages to take the narrow Siliguri corridor, which connects western India to north eastern India, then the Indians will have absolutely no choice but to sue for peace and make concessions. This would be a dream come true for Pakistan.

Also both Pakistan and now Afghanistan are vital transit routes for Iran to transport crude / natural gas to China, especially in case of a conflict China will require energy transported by land as the Indian Ocean and South China Sea will be risky transit routes at that point.

Keep in mind that in case of war with India, the Indians will use their navy and try to dominate the Indian ocean and blockade Pakistan. In that case, Iranian energy exports sent to Pakistan by land will be vital as well. Pakistan and Iran were supposed to have already built a natural gas pipeline to send natural gas from Iran to Pakistan but Pakistan, because of western pressure, never fulfilled its end of the bargain.
Assalamualaikum!
No India cannot do a blockade to Pakistan simply because our naval power is constantly rising.we can hit their carriers at distance of 600km away from air,700km away from land.and submarines have not just entered the race.

It's not due to outer pressure that Pakistan has never tried to enhance trade with iran.it has more to do with reason that our leaders have never taken interest in enhancing ties with Iran after shah e Iran.this is purely due to our history.Pakistan went for Arabs and you went for India as you had no other option for trade.

Now your land has been used against Pakistan,we literally care for only Afghanistan and have never interfered in Iran.simply your direction is different,ours is different.
We should now ensure peaceful settlement of Taliban.then should remain neutral in each other's affairs.

Your claim that Pakistan went bankrupt due to funding Taliban is just baseless and has no reality.
 

sha ah

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The west pressured Pakistan and that's why the natural gas pipeline was not finished on the Pakistani side. That's the fact of the matter.

Anyways, in case of war, India has missiles as well and they have a superior navy, so transporting crude / natural gas via ships will be extremely risky. They might very well target your ports as well.

Remember India is several times larger than Pakistan and Pakistan's capital and infrastructure are all extremely close to the Indian border. However India's capital and infrastructure are far from Pakistan's border.

On its own Pakistan is at a major disadvantage with India, In terms of technology you're more on less on par but India outnumbers Pakistan 7 to 1 in terms of manpower.

This is why Pakistan has allied so closely with China. Pakistan requires allies against India. Pakistan has lost all of the major wars against India, including Bangladesh. Those are bitter memories and Pakistan does not want to see a repeat.

Pakistan needs strong and dependable allies to fight India and allies that have access to its border preferably. Turkey won't suffice since they don't even share a border with Pakistan. That's idealism, not realism.

Also Iran never "went for India" Iran merely wants to trade with India since they possess such a massive marketplace. The west and Arabs also trade with them actively. Nothing wrong with that.

Assalamualaikum!
No India cannot do a blockade to Pakistan simply because our naval power is constantly rising.we can hit their carriers at distance of 600km away from air,700km away from land.and submarines have not just entered the race.

It's not due to outer pressure that Pakistan has never tried to enhance trade with iran.it has more to do with reason that our leaders have never taken interest in enhancing ties with Iran after shah e Iran.this is purely due to our history.Pakistan went for Arabs and you went for India as you had no other option for trade.

Now your land has been used against Pakistan,we literally care for only Afghanistan and have never interfered in Iran.simply your direction is different,ours is different.
We should now ensure peaceful settlement of Taliban.then should remain neutral in each other's affairs.

Your claim that Pakistan went bankrupt due to funding Taliban is just baseless and has no reality.
 
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waz

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The west pressured Pakistan and that's why the natural gas pipeline was not finished on the Pakistani side. That's the fact of the matter.

Anyways, in case of war, India has missiles as well and they have a superior navy, so transporting crude / natural gas via ships will be extremely risky. They might very well target your ports as well.

Remember India is several times larger than Pakistan and Pakistan's capital and infrastructure are all extrtemely close to the Indian border. However India's capital and infrastructure are far from Pakistan's border.

On its own Pakistan is at a major disadvantage with India, In terms of technology you're more on less on par but India outnumbers Pakistan 7 to 1 in terms of manpower.

This is why Pakistan has allied so closely with China. Pakistan requires allies against India. Pakistan has lost all of the major wars against India, including Bangladesh. Those are bitter memories for Pakistan.

Pakistan needs allies to fight India and allies that have access to its border. Turkey won't suffice since they don't even share a border with Pakistan. That's just idealism, not realism.

Also Iran never "went for India" Iran merely wants to trade with India since they possess such a massive marketplace. The west and Arabs also trade with them actively. Nothing wrong with that.
India's population is much older (average age 30) than Pakistan's which is one of the youngest (average age 22) and they have one of the world's worst sex ratios. That doesn't bode well for their "manpower" advantage now or in the future.

Pakistan hasn't lost all its major wars where did you get that from? According to any credible source it was 1948 a stalemate, 1965 a stalemate, 1971 war win for India.
There have been skirmishes and battles with the following;
Rann of Kutch advantage Pakistan.
Siachen Glacier advantage India.
Kargil advantage India.
Battle of Balakot advantage Pakistan (recent air battle).
 
Mar 8, 2021
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The west pressured Pakistan and that's why the natural gas pipeline was not finished on the Pakistani side. That's the fact of the matter.
Gas pipeline project was between Pakistan and Russia, I will see later if there is any such project with Iran.
Anyways, in case of war, India has missiles as well and they have a superior navy, so transporting crude / natural gas via ships will be extremely risky. They might very well target your ports as well.
Yeah they had superior navy,but not any more.we are equipping our navy with best defence systems and from subsonic to supersonic missiles.both don't have any hypersonic missile yet.then how indian navy is superior to us technologically.
Remember India is several times larger than Pakistan and Pakistan's capital and infrastructure are all extrtemely close to the Indian border. However India's capital and infrastructure are far from Pakistan's border.
Well if they will hit our infrastructure,then we also have ability to hit their infra no matter how far away their infrastructure is.we have ability to hit them.
On its own Pakistan is at a major disadvantage with India, In terms of technology you're more on less on par but India outnumbers Pakistan 7 to 1 in terms of manpower.
Man power is not a problem for us thanks to technology.they have 5000 tanks we have 2200 and as we will fight defensively,so our artillery will help us more.
Pakistan has lost all of the major wars against India, including Bangladesh. Those are bitter memories for Pakistan.
No we have not lost all major wars.there were three Major wars 48,65,71.only 71 was loss again thanks to bangalis.
For 48,we owned whole GB, azad Kashmir region,in 65 we attacked them and lost not a single inch of land,

You better read "on the line of Duty" written by indian Gerenal.so that you can have full comand on history of 65 war.
Others were only small border skirmishes.
What will stop us to target theirs?
Turkey won't suffice since they don't even share a border with Pakistan. That's just idealism, not realism
Turkey can sell us technologically advanced weapons.so this is major advantage to have turkey as friendly state.
so transporting crude / natural gas via ships will be extremely risky.
So how their oils delivery will be safe?
The west and Arabs also trade with them actively. Nothing wrong with that
Yeah arabs also do trade with them but don't allow their lands to be used against us.
Remember India has never been able to infiltrate us from eastern border but has only harmed us from our western border.again thanks to our Muslim friendly countries.

One and last thing,india was suffering from chronic famine after 65 war.while we have never suffered any famine in our history despite wars.
 
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Stryker1982

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Well electronics because there is a world wide chip shortage which is affecting virtually every form of finished technology good. Travel because of excess demand from opening of economies from COVID.

Basically you have a sudden pent up demand that is not being met yet by the production curves of major world economies.

“transitory”

FED believes that this temporary and in due time suppliers will move production curves to match a stabilizing demand curve.

I do not believe inflation is truly happening

why?

Simple look at 30 YR and 10YR US treasury bonds. If the bond market truly saw high inflation on the horizon you would see these bonds going up to compensate because investors want the risk free rate of return + inflation premium. Instead in recent weeks you saw drops in the treasuries.

This tells me bond market

1) sees mundane growth on the horizon

2) sees muted inflation in the long term

Look at Japan it printed the living **** out of the yen and it couldn’t create true lasting inflation and experienced deflation at various times in last couple decades.

If you had TRUE inflation then there would be a demand for money, demand for money is non existent because companies are struggling to find ROI projects worth investing in. When demand and velocity of money is down, it’s hard to have inflation...stagflation maybe.

Also look at mortgage rates 2-3% historically low when there is true inflation in the economy banks wanted to be compensated on the potential for future payments to be worth less than present day. Yet we have seen low mortgage rates since the 2008 financial crisis.

So what does it all mean?

It means major problem with capitalistic engine and global economy because inflation is actually healthy and needed. Yet Since 2008 despite all the money printing inflation has been muted.

this is telling me demand for money is way down, velocity of money is way down, true capital intensive investments are way down, and inflation is “leaking” out of the US economy and being absorbed by emerging market countries in order to make their currencies more competitive for export of their products.

View attachment 779030

inflation? Bro don’t make me laugh. Fed wants you to desperate believe it’s pathetic attempt at inflation generation is working.

There hasn’t been major inflation since Reagan and Volker killed hyperinflation in the 80s


20% fed funds rate to 12% to 6% to 4-5% to 0%

Temporary inflation from a pandemic, supply bottlenecks, and recovering work face = / = true structural inflation that a healthy economy needs.

conclusion: barring another industrial Revolution (AI/Quantum computer/Space) that generates ACTUAL growth (not this net or negative growth fueled by debt BS) the global economy is in trouble in the long run.

Capitalism merely beat Communism. It was the better of the two models. Not the true model of the universe.


But modern capitalism biggest flaw was it relied on its own population to fuel most of the growth (GDP consumption) and it relied on the corporate governance model to make sound long lasting capital rich investments to fuel future growth.

well guess what happened?

corporate governance said f that I’ll just give it out as dividends to my shareholders and cut costs (thus improving financials) by cutting wage growth across the board and replacing it with automation whenever I can.

US government said ok and I’ll help that by ensuring this mass swarm movement of financial philosophy being enacted across the entire economy goes unimpeded. I’ll turn a blind eye to rising tuition costs (student loan debt), rising entitlement programs (Medicare, SS, etc), unnecessary wars, etc. I’ll make up the shortfall in growth by issuing more debt fueled growth knowing full well its a diminishing return feedback loop.

Then the US decided in last 2 decades to divide the country slowly but surely under this dumb “liberal vs conservative” “Democrat vs Republican” mantra to control the sheep (in this case evolved monkeys) in order to have its citizens/domestic population blame each other for the country’s problems and not the system itself. Thus allowing the system to escape any resemblance of accountability.

But wait the carnival show gets even better! Then an unintended consequence of this policy was that US’s own elected evolved monkeys (presidents, judges, congress) started drinking the kool aid too (number one rule about drug dealing...don’t use your own product bro) and now they too are actually believing this manipualition tactic as being true.

Deep state is [insert face_palm emoji] I would imagine.

But that’s a story for another day...

So now the two critical most parts of the capitalistic system.....(1) corporate governance/free market theory/private enterprise.... (2) domestic population consumption are not working properly.

In a nutshell they took the most important cog in the engine (the worker/civilian/domestic citizen) who is responsible for 70% of growth in the country and ****ed him so well over that he can’t consume like he needs to. Caused a permanent physiological change in how he consumes.

This in turn feeds the negative feedback loop to the corporate governance model of believing their subdue global growth in the horizon, thus don’t waste money on capital intensive projects with long and uncertain timelines. Thus creating a self fulfilling prophecy when growth doesn’t show up you say see I was right....and the cycle starts all over again.

So instead companies have engaged in financial engineering to create boosts in stock prices which in turn creates value in executives own stock options (which most executives compensation comes from). You can see how something with initially good intentions ends up creating unintended consequences.

Good in theory...however applied across the entire domestic economy means a massive game of musical chairs in who ends up with the short end of the stick....usually the government and the domestic citizen.

So no....inflation isn’t the problem. This massive negative feedback loop that was generated is the problem. And every country in the world (including Iran) is at risk. There is no easy solution. You are asking the entire system that has taken years of economic evolution (devolution?) to realign again.


Might as well ask a combustible engine to become a warp drive while you are at it.
Thanks for the response bro, I'd like to reply and talk more about these things, but I am currently at work when I get some free time it would be a great discussion to have. Especially about what's going on with gas prices and shipping costs, and how that might affect price inflation and Iran's natural gas deposits. Electricity prices are going up hard compared to last year.
India's population is much older (average age 30) than Pakistan's which is one of the youngest (average age 22) and they have one of the world's worst sex ratios. That doesn't bode well for their "manpower" advantage now or in the future.

Pakistan hasn't lost all its major wars where did you get that from? According to any credible source it was 1948 a stalemate, 1965 a stalemate, 1971 war win for India.
There have been skirmishes and battles with the following;
Rann of Kutch advantage Pakistan.
Siachen Glacier advantage India.
Kargil advantage India.
Battle of Balakot advantage Pakistan (recent air battle).
This is true, Pakistan seems to operate better than India in this regard despite being a "smaller nation" theoretically.

But in terms of the future, I wonder how things will shape especially with India's economic growth and ever increasing military spending that would not be possible for Pakistan to keep up. I am not too optimistic in the long term because India will grow faster than Pakistan by virtue of improving relations with the west, cheap labour and large population (larger potential). If you have any thoughts I would be happy to learn more. I think India is the 3rd or 4th largest military spender at the moment.

I suppose in the regard it makes sense why Pakistan is closely aligned with China.
 

Stryker1982

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Gas pipeline project was between Pakistan and Russia, I will see later if there is any such project with Iran.
It's possible Pakistan will either get Gas through Turkmenistan or Iran. Not sure on where the future lies on that, underground pipelines would secure Pakistan's gas needs, where as india will still rely on shipping for their gas, in which case Pakistan can target their military machine with long range anti-ship missiles.
 

Sainthood 101

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This is entirely false narrative.. India has never won a war in western frontier. All their experts will agree with this nor is the result official in the historical wikipedia.

Pakistan actully took Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir from India and holds onto it firm until this day.

They didn't win the 1947-48 war


Nor the one in 1965


These are official results and technically India lost the 1965 war to Pakistan plain and simple. The Indians attacked trying to storm Pakistan but once they got deep into Azad Kashmir and Gilgat Baltistan they were routed and Pakistan initiated counter-offense storming north India and reaching almost Delhi conquering vast territories of India. Indian's couldn't have defended Delhi the UN stepped in to save the day for them threatening Pakistan with sanction if it retook Delhi.

The 1971 I give you that and the only reason for that it is because the entire Bangladesh nation switched side and there was nothing to fight for there basically the Bangalis decided that war and not a technical victory as per as but the Bangladesh just rejected Pakistan to pursue their own ethnic agenda and created a country for themselves but as for West Pakistan India has never won a conflict but lost two there and including a junk of territories which is still held by Pakistan today.

We also saw what happened to them in 2019 hence India is fruitless against the western frontier. Another thing to notice is that the population of Pakistan just started to boom recently meaning we were only 20 million to begin with and the indians outnumbered as in must of these wars more than 10 to 1. Plus our country were in bad shape in these periods still we could have taken Delhi back in 1965 despite all these disadvantages.

What does this tell us and what can we learn from this? Indians are not about this life of war and clashes of civilizations. If the Indian army is defeated India is entirely open because they have plenty of veggies and pacifists etc etc it is easy population to rule hence no rebelion will come which is something achieveable for Pakistan to complete a full takeover of India in any eventual miscalculation.

Previously in the 1000 years of India muslim they outnumbered us 1 to 20 at sometimes but we still ruled the lands from north to south with relative ease because of the population being pacifistic which won't change the scenario hence all their numbers is nothing but an illusion
ik-pti.gif

Replace Deli with Amritsar
 

Sainthood 101

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Thanks for the response bro, I'd like to reply and talk more about these things, but I am currently at work when I get some free time it would be a great discussion to have. Especially about what's going on with gas prices and shipping costs, and how that might affect price inflation and Iran's natural gas deposits. Electricity prices are going up hard compared to last year.

This is true, Pakistan seems to operate better than India in this regard despite being a "smaller nation" theoretically.

But in terms of the future, I wonder how things will shape especially with India's economic growth and ever increasing military spending that would not be possible for Pakistan to keep up. I am not too optimistic in the long term because India will grow faster than Pakistan by virtue of improving relations with the west, cheap labour and large population (larger potential). If you have any thoughts I would be happy to learn more. I think India is the 3rd or 4th largest military spender at the moment.

I suppose in the regard it makes sense why Pakistan is closely aligned with China.
You're right and for the time being only answer seems to be the last one and that's more of a half solution than anything

Let's see what happens in the future, things are definitely not looking so bright

But tbh things were never bright from Pakistan's perspective in it's entire history, yet it goes on
Unfortunately something a country must grapple with
 

Stryker1982

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You're right and for the time being only answer seems to be the last one and that's more of a half solution than anything

Let's see what happens in the future, things are definitely not looking so bright

But tbh things were never bright from Pakistan's perspective in it's entire history, yet it goes on
Unfortunately something a country must grapple with
I can understand the relationship with China, if China is willing to provide some of it's high grade tech, then it could offset some of India's advantages even if military spending is less. Perhaps more investment into offensive Cyber space as well.

Can't run the Indian airforce Command and Control without electricity :)
But I am not too well informed on Pakistan's advancements in Cyber area.
 

Battlion25

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The west pressured Pakistan and that's why the natural gas pipeline was not finished on the Pakistani side. That's the fact of the matter.

Anyways, in case of war, India has missiles as well and they have a superior navy, so transporting crude / natural gas via ships will be extremely risky. They might very well target your ports as well.

Remember India is several times larger than Pakistan and Pakistan's capital and infrastructure are all extremely close to the Indian border. However India's capital and infrastructure are far from Pakistan's border.

On its own Pakistan is at a major disadvantage with India, In terms of technology you're more on less on par but India outnumbers Pakistan 7 to 1 in terms of manpower.

This is why Pakistan has allied so closely with China. Pakistan requires allies against India. Pakistan has lost all of the major wars against India, including Bangladesh. Those are bitter memories and Pakistan does not want to see a repeat.

Pakistan needs strong and dependable allies to fight India and allies that have access to its border preferably. Turkey won't suffice since they don't even share a border with Pakistan. That's idealism, not realism.

Also Iran never "went for India" Iran merely wants to trade with India since they possess such a massive marketplace. The west and Arabs also trade with them actively. Nothing wrong with that.
This is entirely false narrative India has never won a war in western frontier. All their Indian experts will agree with this notion which is the official result in the historical wikipedia.

Pakistan actully took Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir from India and holds onto it firm until this day cutting them off from Eurasia.

They didn't win the 1947-48 war


Nor the one in 1965


These are official results and technically India lost the 1965 war to Pakistan plain and simple. The Indians attacked trying to storm Pakistan but once they got deep into Azad Kashmir and Gilgat Baltistan they were routed and Pakistan initiated counter-offense storming north India and reaching almost Delhi conquering vast territories of India. Indian's couldn't have defended Delhi the UN stepped in to save the day for them threatening Pakistan with sanction if it retook Delhi.

The 1971 I give you that and the only reason for that it is because the entire Bangladesh nation switched side and there was nothing to fight for there basically the Bangalis decided that war and not a technical victory as per say but Bangladesh just rejected Pakistan to pursue their own ethnic agenda and created a country for themselves but as for West Pakistan India has never won a conflict but lost two there and including a junk of territories which is still held by Pakistan today.

We also saw what happened to them in 2019 hence India is fruitless against the western frontier. Another thing to notice is that the population of Pakistan just started to boom recently meaning we were only 20 million to begin with and the indians outnumbered as in most of these wars more than 10 to 1. Plus our country were in bad shape in these periods still we could have taken Delhi back in 1965 despite all these disadvantages.

What does this tell us and what can we learn from this? Indians are not about this life of war and clashes of civilizations. If the Indian army is defeated India is entirely open because they have plenty of veggies and pacifists etc etc it is easy population to rule hence no rebelion will come which is something achieveable for Pakistan to complete a full takeover of India in any eventual miscalculation.

Previously in the 1000 years of muslim India they outnumbered us 1 to 20 at times but we still ruled the lands from north to south with relative ease because of the population being pacifistic which won't change the scenario hence all their numbers is nothing but an illusion today if the Indian army is destroy India is completely open for Pakistan.

By the way Pakistan won't need China to overrun India at all. Most outsider make the mistake of seeing India from the population lense but it is an illusion that Pakistan doesn't see within India because it is divided and the population won't rebel if there army is crushed it is basically the world's largest bystanders.

We are a fighting nation and India is not it is that simple hence why I have been saying to some folks here we are the only solo power in the region aside from China hence India is a large elepant without any fillings inside and empty like a ballon you can only understand this if you understand the region and the people of the sub-continent. Tamils, Keralites and southern ragtags will not put up a chellenging fight against their historical overloards Punjabis, Pathans that are in well drilled shape they will fight but only a little and crumble like a house of cards if any serious offensive with intention is mounted by Pakistan to re-claim India and majority of Indians are just peasants and not militant people but soft in nature.

You have to analyse throughly your prey before you subdue it this was how the expansion period began it is a tradition not used anymore today but you have to first send scouts and analyse the foes culture, traditions, way of life and see if there is any fight in the dog and divisions. India just has to many social issues against it's case hence why invading India has always been easy and a tradition that has not changed and all that stands infront of that is just 1.3m armed forces the remaining are bystanders

I can understand the relationship with China, if China is willing to provide some of it's high grade tech, then it could offset some of India's advantages even if military spending is less. Perhaps more investment into offensive Cyber space as well.

Can't run the Indian airforce Command and Control without electricity :)
But I am not too well informed on Pakistan's advancements in Cyber area.
Example India saw that it's air capabilities rendered basically useless because Pakistan was using strong jamming systems leading to the Indians losing communication with each other and the central command they have never felt so much vintage than that point in history in 2019.

Pakistan has alot of cards up it's sleeves which is Turkey and China including it's own defense industry. The psychological blow to India from these dog-fights will atleast take 2 decades for them to recover from it and the pain comes from the technological aspect.

It was like a magic trick this is what makes them very nervous the strong jamming systems of Pakistan surprised them alot to the point where they realized Pakistan has the capabilities to render their air force useless this is not something you just recover over that quickly and re-gain confidence immediately it's gonna take them atleast 2 decades.

War is deception and this was one of the main deception that will continously put doubt into the Indians minds they will constantly be thinking what other tricks the foe has because If someone surprisingly showchases the ability to render your entire air force useless it is terrifying information to recieve in the practical manner if you previously had no information of this

.........................................
 
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GWXP

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Some statistics

1) Progress in Iran

Regarding road network--it might depend on quantity of cities in a country. For example Germany and Iran both have 82mln people, but most Germans live in large number of small cities with Germany having 1500 cities with population of 10K or more.....Iranians on the other hand live in medium-sized or large cities with Iran having 209 cities with population of 10K or more-----this can define the size of road or railway network a country requires (connecting 1500 cities requires much more extensive road network than connecting 209 cities)

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2) Stagnation in Russia

Regarding population of Russia---over the last 30 years Russia has lost 12mln people and then another 12mln people migrated to Russia from the former USSR and as a result its population remained constant

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3) Massive transformation in China

China made an enormous transformation over the last 30 years and pulled 550mln people from villages to cities within one generation

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sha ah

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I'm talking about the gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan. Iran finished its part of the line, Pakistan buckled to US pressure.


In 1947 India gained control of 2/3rds of Kashmir. Pakistan 1/3rd.

In 1965 India had the upper hand when the peace treaties were signed sponsored by the USSR and USA

In 1971 Pakistan lost east Pakistan and thousands of troops surrendered in a humiliating defeat. 90,000 Pakistani troops surrendered and were taken prisoner. This war was devastating for Pakistan. Pakistan lost half its navy, a quarter of its air force and a third of its army

The following picture shows Pakistani forces surrendering to Indian army officers. During the withdrawal, Indian troops had to protect Pakistani troops from being massacred. Many Bangladeshi's wanted them executed on mass

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In 1999 Pakistan lost 4000 troops and the conflict war a major military defeat for Pakistan

Pakistan had launched a major offensive to take back large swaths of Kashmir over the line of actual control. India took back 77-80% of the intruded areas by the end of the conflict.

The international community then pressured Pakistan to withdraw from the rest of the territory. Pakistani troops suffered massive casualties and suffered badly from low morale.

In the end Pakistan's government refused to accept the bodies of their dead for a long period of time before Nawaz Sharif finally signed the paperwork and accepted their corpses of his dead troops

In the end the conflict was a major defeat for the Pakistani army

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Again against India Pakistan is simply outmatched and both in terms of manpower, industry, weaponry, firepower, you name it. Pakistan needs strong allies like China or even Iran if they hope to win the war

Like I said, if Pakistan and China focus a coordinated attack in Kashmir. If Pakistan received crude/natural gas from Iran and helps transport much of that energy to China. And finally IF China is able to break the Indian chickens neck (Siliguri corridor), that is the only way for Pakistan to come out on top

Don't even mention the recent air skirmish last time. That was a PR win for Pakistan but just a skirmish, nothing more. In any major conflict, on it's own, the odds are highly in India's favor. Also since then India has procured advanced Rafale jets which are more potent and effective than anything Pakistan has in its arsenal. the JF-17 is a budget fighter and cannot hope to compare. No way.

Again back to my previous point. Pakistan needs strong and reliable allies to win. That is the fact of the matter whether you want to accept it or not.

Gas pipeline project was between Pakistan and Russia, I will see later if there is any such project with Iran.

Yeah they had superior navy,but not any more.we are equipping our navy with best defence systems and from subsonic to supersonic missiles.both don't have any hypersonic missile yet.then how indian navy is superior to us technologically.

Well if they will hit our infrastructure,then we also have ability to hit their infra no matter how far away their infrastructure is.we have ability to hit them.

Man power is not a problem for us thanks to technology.they have 5000 tanks we have 2200 and as we will fight defensively,so our artillery will help us more.

No we have not lost all major wars.there were three Major wars 48,65,71.only 71 was loss again thanks to bangalis.
For 48,we owned whole GB, azad Kashmir region,in 65 we attacked them and lost not a single inch of land,

You better read "on the line of Duty" written by indian Gerenal.so that you can have full comand on history of 65 war.
Others were only small border skirmishes.

What will stop us to target theirs?

Turkey can sell us technologically advanced weapons.so this is major advantage to have turkey as friendly state.

So how their oils delivery will be safe?

Yeah arabs also do trade with them but don't allow their lands to be used against us.
Remember India has never been able to infiltrate us from eastern border but has only harmed us from our western border.again thanks to our Muslim friendly countries.

One and last thing,india was suffering from chronic famine after 65 war.while we have never suffered any famine in our history despite wars.
 

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