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Iranian Chill Thread

925boy

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For Iran this will help offset US sanctions even further. I doubt if Iran is having any issues selling oil, especially with Lebanon requiring oil and winter quickly approaching, energy prices seem to be spiking.

India really does stand out here though. On one hand they're a proud member in the anti China Quad alliance, on the other hand they're a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ?

Unfortunately the USA and China seem to be gearing up for a major war over Taiwan / the South China Sea and global dominance in general. Many estimate that this war will break out sometime in the 2030s.

Recently the USA created AUKUS, yet another anti China alliance and is now planning to sell nuclear powered submarines to Australia. President of China, Xi JinPing also seems to be tightening is grip on power and preparing the country for an inevitable conflict.

Every industry in China from education, tech, entertainment has been made to fall into line in one way or the other. Children from an early age now are being taught to study the ideology promoted by Xi, while having to salute their student union leaders in a military fashion.

Effeminate male entertainers are being discouraged and corruption / deviance is being systematically purged from every sector. Chinese companies are not being allowed to sell their stocks in the USA or abroad. Anything that would give the slightest leverage or advantage to the west over China is being scrutinized.

Crony capitalism, investments in what China calls (fake businesses) tech start ups for example are being discouraged while China doubles down on its manufacturing sector (real businesses). This makes perfect sense in the context of a war since manufacturing is vital during war time.

If a war were to break what role would Iran play ? I don't believe that Iran would want to be directly involved however China is currently Iran's largest single crude purchaser. In case of a war Indians are counting on choking Chinese energy supplies which transit through the Indian ocean.

As far as I know close to 60% of Chinese energy supplies arrive by ship This is why the One Belt & Road initiative is so vital to China. It's not just about reviving the silk road or expanding trade. It also has the dual purpose of allowing China to secure energy supplies in case of a war.

Now with Afghanistan recently falling, obviously Iran could hypothetically sell crude to China not only via Pakistan but also via Afghanistan. Of course this would be much less cost effective / efficient but during war time energy supplies are absolutely vital, especially a nation with a massive population like China.

Yes China does have a large supply of backup energy reserves as well as huge reserves of gold, foreign currency, etc They could purchase energy supplies through Russia as well. I have no doubt that Putin would be more than happy to supply India with weapons and China with energy at the same time.

Of course this is assuming that Iran couldn't simply escort its tankers to China with help from Pakistan and China along the way as well. As we saw with the recent naval trip to St Petersburg, Iran's navy is more than capable of long voyages.

Not only that but would India really want to try seizing Iranian tankers in such a scenario ? I mean we all saw how that worked out for the UK. Would India really want to antagonize Iran and seirously risk all of its own trade in the Persian Gulf ? I doubt it, but again, even in the worse case scenario, the land route is now more viable than ever before now that the US has been forced out Afghanistan.

I don't think Indians realize how expendable they are in the Quad alliance. The Quad is a loosely nit group of nations that have common interests vs China. Essentially the rest of the members are counting on India to tie up Chinese troops and resources more than anything else. I highly doubt if any Quad members are willing to spare even a drop of blood for Indian territory or interests at large.

The issue is that in case of a war, India will have to face off against Pakistan and China in Kashmir but the real decisive blow will most likely be dealt if China manages to secure the infamous Siliguri corridor or as its referred to "India's chicken neck"

The loss of this vital territory would cut off Assam and all of north eastern India from the rest of India proper. Such a loss would be devastating and would force Delhi to give in to any and all Chinese concessions including war reparations.

Of course in a hypothetical war scenario, nothing is for certain. However simply comparing the way China and India handled the Covid-19 pandemic in each respective country shows us just how woefully unprepared and disorganized the Indians can be when faced with a chaotic situation.

So at the end of the day, I believe that if a war were to break out between the US and its allies vs China, I could see India getting knocked out of the conflict relatively quickly and being forced to make concessions, just like in 1962. This would essentially be one of China's most strategic ambitions and once the Chinese set their mind on something they don't play games. Right now the war drums are beating and things are heating up but again only time will tell.

View attachment 778948
What an excellent post! damn, YOU ARE SPITTIN FIIIIIRRRREEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

TheImmortal

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Now with Afghanistan recently falling, obviously Iran could hypothetically sell crude to China not only via Pakistan but also via Afghanistan. Of course this would be much less cost effective / efficient but during war time energy supplies are absolutely vital, especially a nation with a massive population like China.
Actually it could be very opportunistic. With an oil and gas pipeline thru Afghanistan to China, iran would supply both Afghanistan with oil and gas and then China as well removing the need for tankers and circumventing sanctions even better.

Forget Pakistan, while Pakistan’s keyboard warriors like to portray pakistan as some massive military power holding nukes, the facts are from economic standpoint it is very weak and cash strapped. Thus it’s influence and independence is greatly hindered regardless of its war machine capabilities (which are aimed at one country: India).

It also relies on US aid and trade with the West, thus much like its rival India it’s foreign policy is not independent and when it comes to Iran, Pakistan is very reliant on what the “white man” allows them to do when it comes to trade with Iran.
 

Stryker1982

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Side stuff.

Economic situation in the west is not great.
US Federal Teasury is completely lieing about inflation.

Look at how they manipulate inflation statistics.

1632111283579.png


@TheImmortal Have you noticed major price changes?
@aryobarzan
@sha ah

In Canada, prices have changed alot, cheese, bread etc... more expensive.
In some industries I've seen prices increase by 40%+ minimum, particularly electronics.

They are saying it is transitory, but this is a lie and I really do believe we are close to the brink of another economic failure like 08' but probably worse due to the massive amount of public debt.

Since the start of the corona virus, M2 money supply has spiked up massively due to money printer going hard. Massive amount of bills are still being printed and circulating
1632111664419.png



So much so that Overnight Reverse Repo market has skyrocketed because major financial institutions have no idea where to invest with all their cash on hand, which leads me to believe that they are waiting for something...

1632111749712.png


Every night, major banks and institution in the United States deposit over a trillion USD and rising, for overnight interest gain. The Federal Treasury provides minimal interest for this deposit, and the next morning the money is returned to the recipients only to be redeposited the next day over and over again. On Firday a record total deposit was made to the tune of 1.2 trillion dollars. Why are these institutions depositing their money here, instead of land? Gold? Stock market? or anything esle?

I can't say for sure why, but my guess is that they believe their is a impending crash due to inflationary issues, and storing the money in these overnight treasury bills is the safest option to atleast earn a small profit from interest until the floodgates crash open.


China's second largest prosperity developer (Evergrande) is on the brink of bankruptcy. Unclear whether or not they will restructure their massive amount of debt or conduct a forced liquidation of assets.
If they complete the latter, this will cause a huge ripple in the Chinese economy and affect their US creditors as well. I don't' want to sound over alarmist, but the signs of major problems on the near term future are showing.
Evergrande stock value has been getting hammered every day, and a default would be similar to the Lehman brothers fall of 2008. I expect property values in China to fall hard.
 
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TheImmortal

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Side stuff.

Economic situation in the west is not great.
US Federal Teasury is completely lieing about inflation.

Look at how they manipulate inflation statistics.




@TheImmortal Have you noticed major price changes?
@aryobarzan
@sha ah

In Canada, prices have changed alot, cheese, bread etc... more expensive.
In some industries I've seen prices increase by 40%+ minimum, particularly electronics.
Well electronics because there is a world wide chip shortage which is affecting virtually every form of finished technology good. Travel because of excess demand from opening of economies from COVID.

Basically you have a sudden pent up demand that is not being met yet by the production curves of major world economies.

“transitory”

FED believes that this temporary and in due time suppliers will move production curves to match a stabilizing demand curve.

I do not believe inflation is truly happening

why?

Simple look at 30 YR and 10YR US treasury bonds. If the bond market truly saw high inflation on the horizon you would see these bonds going up to compensate because investors want the risk free rate of return + inflation premium. Instead in recent weeks you saw drops in the treasuries.

This tells me bond market

1) sees mundane growth on the horizon

2) sees muted inflation in the long term

Look at Japan it printed the living **** out of the yen and it couldn’t create true lasting inflation and experienced deflation at various times in last couple decades.

If you had TRUE inflation then there would be a demand for money, demand for money is non existent because companies are struggling to find ROI projects worth investing in. When demand and velocity of money is down, it’s hard to have inflation...stagflation maybe.

Also look at mortgage rates 2-3% historically low when there is true inflation in the economy banks wanted to be compensated on the potential for future payments to be worth less than present day. Yet we have seen low mortgage rates since the 2008 financial crisis.

So what does it all mean?

It means major problem with capitalistic engine and global economy because inflation is actually healthy and needed. Yet Since 2008 despite all the money printing inflation has been muted.

this is telling me demand for money is way down, velocity of money is way down, true capital intensive investments are way down, and inflation is “leaking” out of the US economy and being absorbed by emerging market countries in order to make their currencies more competitive for export of their products.

1632115397267.png


inflation? Bro don’t make me laugh. Fed wants you to desperate believe it’s pathetic attempt at inflation generation is working.

There hasn’t been major inflation since Reagan and Volker killed hyperinflation in the 80s


20% fed funds rate to 12% to 6% to 4-5% to 0%

Temporary inflation from a pandemic, supply bottlenecks, and recovering work face = / = true structural inflation that a healthy economy needs.

conclusion: barring another industrial Revolution (AI/Quantum computer/Space) that generates ACTUAL growth (not this net or negative growth fueled by debt BS) the global economy is in trouble in the long run.

Capitalism merely beat Communism. It was the better of the two models. Not the true model of the universe.


But modern capitalism biggest flaw was it relied on its own population to fuel most of the growth (GDP consumption) and it relied on the corporate governance model to make sound long lasting capital rich investments to fuel future growth.

well guess what happened?

corporate governance said f that I’ll just give it out as dividends to my shareholders and cut costs (thus improving financials) by cutting wage growth across the board and replacing it with automation whenever I can.

US government said ok and I’ll help that by ensuring this mass swarm movement of financial philosophy being enacted across the entire economy goes unimpeded. I’ll turn a blind eye to rising tuition costs (student loan debt), rising entitlement programs (Medicare, SS, etc), unnecessary wars, etc. I’ll make up the shortfall in growth by issuing more debt fueled growth knowing full well its a diminishing return feedback loop.

Then the US decided in last 2 decades to divide the country slowly but surely under this dumb “liberal vs conservative” “Democrat vs Republican” mantra to control the sheep (in this case evolved monkeys) in order to have its citizens/domestic population blame each other for the country’s problems and not the system itself. Thus allowing the system to escape any resemblance of accountability.

But wait the carnival show gets even better! Then an unintended consequence of this policy was that US’s own elected evolved monkeys (presidents, judges, congress) started drinking the kool aid too (number one rule about drug dealing...don’t use your own product bro) and now they too are actually believing this manipualition tactic as being true.

Deep state is [insert face_palm emoji] I would imagine.

But that’s a story for another day...

So now the two critical most parts of the capitalistic system.....(1) corporate governance/free market theory/private enterprise.... (2) domestic population consumption are not working properly.

In a nutshell they took the most important cog in the engine (the worker/civilian/domestic citizen) who is responsible for 70% of growth in the country and ****ed him so well over that he can’t consume like he needs to. Caused a permanent physiological change in how he consumes.

This in turn feeds the negative feedback loop to the corporate governance model of believing their subdue global growth in the horizon, thus don’t waste money on capital intensive projects with long and uncertain timelines. Thus creating a self fulfilling prophecy when growth doesn’t show up you say see I was right....and the cycle starts all over again.

So instead companies have engaged in financial engineering to create boosts in stock prices which in turn creates value in executives own stock options (which most executives compensation comes from). You can see how something with initially good intentions ends up creating unintended consequences.

Good in theory...however applied across the entire domestic economy means a massive game of musical chairs in who ends up with the short end of the stick....usually the government and the domestic citizen.

So no....inflation isn’t the problem. This massive negative feedback loop that was generated is the problem. And every country in the world (including Iran) is at risk. There is no easy solution. You are asking the entire system that has taken years of economic evolution (devolution?) to realign again.


Might as well ask a combustible engine to become a warp drive while you are at it.
 
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SalarHaqq

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Important and good thing to see. @SalarHaqq

We gave this plutonium pathway up, the fastest and cheapest way to produce a bomb, and received nothing, now the mistake has to be fixed which will be costing money, manpower and time. Regardless, this new guy is making important decisions.

While they won't overtly say it's for military use, it can be reconfigured to function as such.

Since it took over, the Raisi administration has been gratifying us near exclusively with oustanding news. This should really be paid attention to by those who believe it makes no difference who leads the Iranian government, as well as by patriotic-minded Iranians who chose not to take part in the presidential election.

The IR-40 reactor at Arak is very much needed for R&D purposes namely to pave the way for indigenous construction of heavy water plants, as well as for the production of medical, industrial and agricultural isotopes, as a replacement for the 54 year old, limited capacity Tehran Research Reactor (TRR). IR-40's inactive status since the JCPOA came into effect is unacceptable indeed.

However, the Arak reactor isn't about providing Iran with a potential breakout capability: that role was always meant to been fulfilled by the uranium enrichment program. I believe PeeD explained it before in detail. In any case a static overground facility isn't practical nor survivable enough, therefore the plutonium pathway isn't the most appealing one for Iran. Uranium enrichment however, especially when carried out with newer generation, compact and highly performing centrifuges or even through laser devices (an expertise Iran acquired more than 20 years ago), which can be hidden away in strongly protected underground facilities, is clearly the preferable option.
 
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sha ah

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Prices are increasing for basic necessities all over the world. This has been partly caused by Covid which has caused shutdowns at various ports/factories in Asia. That's one of the inherent risks with having a global supply chain.

Some western countries have printed and borrowed massive amounts of capital and in some cases are giving away money basically for free. Of course flooding the market with capital will cause inflation.


Will there be an economic downturn in the next two years ? Perhaps but even if there is, it will only be a temporary downturn. In the west, every 10-20 years there is always some sort of economic downturn or recession but it usually doesn't last more than 6 months to a year until the market begins to bounce back.

The US dollar will remain the worlds reserve currency until the day when China decides to ask customers for RMB instead of USD or even EUR from Europe, RMB from Asia, USD from North and South America ? That would actually help lead to a more multipolar world.

Of course the USA does not want to lose its position as the worlds sole super power and it will do everything in its power to retain its global dominance. In the next 6 years China's economy is supposed to surpass the US economy. As is usually the case when a rising power is set to overtake a ruling power, it usually leads to conflict.

We hope it won't happen but war between the US and China just seems more and more inevitable. The best case scenario for a country like Iran is to not pick sides, stay neutral officially, while supplying atleast one side, preferably both sides, with resources, products, services, whatever you can to make as much profit as possible while both sides batter each other into oblivion.


Side stuff.

Economic situation in the west is not great.
US Federal Teasury is completely lieing about inflation.

Look at how they manipulate inflation statistics.

View attachment 779021

@TheImmortal Have you noticed major price changes?
@aryobarzan
@sha ah

In Canada, prices have changed alot, cheese, bread etc... more expensive.
In some industries I've seen prices increase by 40%+ minimum, particularly electronics.

They are saying it is transitory, but this is a lie and I really do believe we are close to the brink of another economic failure like 08' but probably worse due to the massive amount of public debt.

Since the start of the corona virus, M2 money supply has spiked up massively due to money printer going hard. Massive amount of bills are still being printed and circulating
View attachment 779022


So much so that Overnight Reverse Repo market has skyrocketed because major financial institutions have no idea where to invest with all their cash on hand, which leads me to believe that they are waiting for something...

View attachment 779023

Every night, major banks and institution in the United States deposit over a trillion USD and rising, for overnight interest gain. The Federal Treasury provides minimal interest for this deposit, and the next morning the money is returned to the recipients only to be redeposited the next day over and over again. On Firday a record total deposit was made to the tune of 1.2 trillion dollars. Why are these institutions depositing their money here, instead of land? Gold? Stock market? or anything esle?

I can't say for sure why, but my guess is that they believe their is a impending crash due to inflationary issues, and storing the money in these overnight treasury bills is the safest option to atleast earn a small profit from interest until the floodgates crash open.


China's second largest prosperity developer (Evergrande) is on the brink of bankruptcy. Unclear whether or not they will restructure their massive amount of debt or conduct a forced liquidation of assets.
If they complete the latter, this will cause a huge ripple in the Chinese economy and affect their US creditors as well. I don't' want to sound over alarmist, but the signs of major problems on the near term future are showing.
Evergrande stock value has been getting hammered every day, and a default would be similar to the Lehman brothers fall of 2008. I expect property values in China to fall hard.
 
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SalarHaqq

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It was always a fraud. Mustard and Sarin kill in the thousands.
Even that isn't proven. Many hints pointing to use of chlorine by "I"SIS and so-called "moderate" terrorists though (who behead children and eat human organs).
And the news about the BBC's fraudulent reporting is relevant for other reasons as well:

1) It once again highlights the fact that mainstream media, especially western ones can simply not be trusted. They are neither objective nor respectful of the deontologic norms of journalism, and they will be used as means of propaganda and brainwashing as the zio-American empire and its cronies see fit.

2) Muslims who bought into the western- and zionist-concocted narrative about the Syrian war relayed by the media in US client states (such as Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya etc), are presented with more evidence as to how they've been fooled and how the demonization of President Assad, the Syrian government and its allies is a baseless strategem devised by hostile imperial powers. These revelations about the BBC and its claims that Damascus used chemical weapons on civilians is just the tip of the iceberg in the dirty propaganda war against Syria.
 

Shawnee

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Side stuff.

Economic situation in the west is not great.
US Federal Teasury is completely lieing about inflation.

Look at how they manipulate inflation statistics.

View attachment 779021

@TheImmortal Have you noticed major price changes?
@aryobarzan
@sha ah

In Canada, prices have changed alot, cheese, bread etc... more expensive.
In some industries I've seen prices increase by 40%+ minimum, particularly electronics.

They are saying it is transitory, but this is a lie and I really do believe we are close to the brink of another economic failure like 08' but probably worse due to the massive amount of public debt.

Since the start of the corona virus, M2 money supply has spiked up massively due to money printer going hard. Massive amount of bills are still being printed and circulating
View attachment 779022


So much so that Overnight Reverse Repo market has skyrocketed because major financial institutions have no idea where to invest with all their cash on hand, which leads me to believe that they are waiting for something...

View attachment 779023

Every night, major banks and institution in the United States deposit over a trillion USD and rising, for overnight interest gain. The Federal Treasury provides minimal interest for this deposit, and the next morning the money is returned to the recipients only to be redeposited the next day over and over again. On Firday a record total deposit was made to the tune of 1.2 trillion dollars. Why are these institutions depositing their money here, instead of land? Gold? Stock market? or anything esle?

I can't say for sure why, but my guess is that they believe their is a impending crash due to inflationary issues, and storing the money in these overnight treasury bills is the safest option to atleast earn a small profit from interest until the floodgates crash open.


China's second largest prosperity developer (Evergrande) is on the brink of bankruptcy. Unclear whether or not they will restructure their massive amount of debt or conduct a forced liquidation of assets.
If they complete the latter, this will cause a huge ripple in the Chinese economy and affect their US creditors as well. I don't' want to sound over alarmist, but the signs of major problems on the near term future are showing.
Evergrande stock value has been getting hammered every day, and a default would be similar to the Lehman brothers fall of 2008. I expect property values in China to fall hard.
Evergrande stock has been falling since 2017. Not a big deal.

Every two months, there is a hype about economic crash. We have a major crash per century but the macrocycle appears ok until 2026.

I would not buy into these YouTube channels. Actually do revere and average into market positions during these periods.

Yes, there is inflation and printing money. Yes, Economy and dollar will crash sometime but does not appear to be that close.
 
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sha ah

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Latest Covid-19 vaccination numbers from Iran. 35% have received one dose while 16% have received 2 doses. 42 million doses have been given out all together.

vvvv.jpg


xxxxxx.jpg
 

TheImmortal

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Looks like the PR campaign by the glorified baboons....I mean Taliban...didn’t last long.

Let’s see how long till Shiites get prosecuted or their rights taken away.

Man freedom looks amazing under the Taliban :rolleyes1:
 
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Pakistan is very reliant on what the “white man” allows them to do when it comes to trade with Iran.
No it's not that what white man says.its due to Arabs.there are millions of Pakistanis sitting in Arab countries who send billions of dollars for Pakistan.so trade with them is vital for us.In fact they have helped us a lot in our wars,they helped us when we were under sanctions,we fought against Israel air force for Arabs,arabs helped us a lot in our nuclear weapons development.
new situations are changing rapidly , current Arab leaders are not very friendly with with us but still they are good markete for our weapons.

Simply we have more benefits in friendship with Turks and Arabs then Iran.we are neutral in your affairs.only if Taliban succeeded in making their stable govt. Pakistan will be out of terrorism very soon.and then we will balance our relations with west and US as we don't want to interfere in Quad and Chinese wars.

So don't derail my country.we have literally nothing to do with you after shah e Iran.
So even rule out Pakistan from your strategic discussions.you are in wars that will never end.
 

GWXP

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Regarding China, there is a massive speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market.

It takes 8-10 years of median household income in US or Europe to buy a home and it takes 30 years of median household income to buy a home in China. Homes are insanely expensive in China (relative to income)

Since banks and bonds offer low interest rates and stock market in China is very volatile, everyone invests in real estate, hoping that home prices will continue rising forever.

Speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market is very similar to asset price bubble in Japan in 1990 prior to them having their Lost Decades.

Construction directly and indirectly is 30% of Chinese GDP and if there will be a housing market crash in China it will have massive consequences for global economy.

It is easy to imagine collapse of home prices in China, leading to bankruptcy of construction companies and stock market crash and bank failures leading to credit crunch and thus reduced investment and consumption, which in turn will result in recession and deflation similar to Japan in 1990s.

All this is also compounded by demographic problems of China, with it having one of the fastest aging societies in the world--and societies with large number of old people tend to consume less meaning deflation problem might get even worse

So it is very real that with the collapse of speculative bubble in China's real estate market, China might have its own Lost Decades and will never surpass US economy.

Meantime in the Western World we have other signals of upcoming crisis:
1) massive debts accumulated by households, corporate sector and governments
2) Central Bank interest rates hitting 0%, meaning monetary policy is no longer effective
3) demographic shift- (with ageing of society we have less consumption in economies where consumption is 70% of GDP)

According to Ray Dalio, major depression happens once in 90-100 years and the last one happened in 1929
Today, with accumulation of massive debts, and with Fed interest rate hitting 0% and with Quantitative easing having little effect on aggregate demand, --- monetary policy is no longer effective

The only option left after the next recession in US is monetization of deficit, when Fed will print money and buy government bonds directly, so government could start a stimulus program.....this will devalue US dollar relative to other currencies, which in turn will result in recessions in export oriented economies of Europe and East Asia.

So, whether the crisis will come from the East or from the West or both, oil prices will go down and this will badly effect oil exporting countries of the Middle East and will have geopolitical consequences across the world

Good video on China real estate

Ray Dalio--How the economic machine works
 
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sha ah

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So far the Taliban seems to be dealing with an ISIS insurgency, among others groups resisting them so I'm not too sure how stable the situation in Afghanistan will remain and for how long. Pakistan has basically gone bankrupt funding the Taliban and spending money to arm itself against India.

If China goes to war with the Quad and India, Pakistan will more than likely support China over Kashmir. That will be vital to tie down Indian resources while China goes after India's chickens neck (Siliguri corridor). If China manages to take the narrow Siliguri corridor, which connects western India to north eastern India, then the Indians will have absolutely no choice but to sue for peace and make concessions. This would be a dream come true for Pakistan.

Also both Pakistan and now Afghanistan are vital transit routes for Iran to transport crude / natural gas to China, especially in case of a conflict China will require energy transported by land as the Indian Ocean and South China Sea will be risky transit routes at that point.

Keep in mind that in case of war with India, the Indians will use their navy and try to dominate the Indian ocean and blockade Pakistan. In that case, Iranian energy exports sent to Pakistan by land will be vital as well. Pakistan and Iran were supposed to have already built a natural gas pipeline to send natural gas from Iran to Pakistan but Pakistan, because of western pressure, never fulfilled its end of the bargain.

No it's not that what white man says.its due to Arabs.there are millions of Pakistanis sitting in Arab countries who send billions of dollars for Pakistan.so trade with them is vital for us.In fact they have helped us a lot in our wars,they helped us when we were under sanctions,we fought against Israel air force for Arabs,arabs helped us a lot in our nuclear weapons development.
new situations are changing rapidly , current Arab leaders are not very friendly with with us but still they are good markete for our weapons.

Simply we have more benefits in friendship with Turks and Arabs then Iran.we are neutral in your affairs.only if Taliban succeeded in making their stable govt. Pakistan will be out of terrorism very soon.and then we will balance our relations with west and US as we don't want to interfere in Quad and Chinese wars.

So don't derail my country.we have literally nothing to do with you after shah e Iran.
So even rule out Pakistan from your strategic discussions.you are in wars that will never end.
 

Shawnee

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Regarding China, there is a massive speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market.

It takes 8-10 years of median household income in US or Europe to buy a home and it takes 30 years of median household income to buy a home in China. Homes are insanely expensive in China (relative to income)

Since banks and bonds offer low interest rates and stock market in China is very volatile, everyone invests in real estate, hoping that home prices will continue rising forever.

Speculative bubble in Chinese real estate market is very similar to asset price bubble in Japan in 1990 prior to them having their Lost Decades.

Construction directly and indirectly is 30% of Chinese GDP and if there will be a housing market crash in China it will have massive consequences for global economy.

It is easy to imagine collapse of home prices in China, leading to bankruptcy of real estate companies and collapse of stock market and bank failures leading to credit crunch and thus reduced investment and consumption, which in turn will result in recession and deflation similar to Japan in 1990s.

All this is also compounded by demographic problems of China, with it having one of the fastest aging societies in the world--and societies with large number of old people tend to consume less meaning deflation problem might get even worse

So it is very real that with the collapse of speculative bubble in China's real estate market, China might have its own Lost Decades and will never surpass US economy.

Meantime in the Western World we have other signals of upcoming crisis:
1) massive debts accumulated by households, corporate sector and governments
2) Central Bank interest rates hitting 0%, meaning monetary policy is no longer effective
3) demographic shift- (with ageing of society we have less consumption in economies where consumption is 70% of GDP)

According to Ray Dalio, major depression happens once in 90-100 years and the last one happened in 1929
Today, with accumulation of massive debts, and with Fed interest rate hitting 0% and with Quantitative easing having little effect on aggregate demand, --- monetary policy is no longer effective

The only option left after the next recession in US is monetization of deficit, when Fed will print money and buy government bonds directly, so government could start a stimulus program.....this will devalue US dollar relative to other currencies, which in turn will result in recessions in export oriented economies of Europe and East Asia.

So, whether the crisis will come from the East or from the West or both, oil prices will go down and this will badly effect oil exporting countries of the Middle East and will have geopolitical consequences across the world

Good video on China real estate

Ray Dalio--How the economic machine works
I agree with 80% of your points.
There will be a crash sometime. As expected today was a red day but I think it is pure correction not crash. Crash is not here yet. It will come, maybe 10 years or so. You cannot time it.

A few months ago, I posted a comment that Iranian stock will outperform US stock and Chinese stock.
The pattern is still there despite the strong correction in the Iranian stock market.

Finally, these are all numbers and motivation and hard work make nations overcomes these indices.
I hate to slave numbers.
 

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