What an excellent post! damn, YOU ARE SPITTIN FIIIIIRRRREEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!For Iran this will help offset US sanctions even further. I doubt if Iran is having any issues selling oil, especially with Lebanon requiring oil and winter quickly approaching, energy prices seem to be spiking.
India really does stand out here though. On one hand they're a proud member in the anti China Quad alliance, on the other hand they're a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ?
Unfortunately the USA and China seem to be gearing up for a major war over Taiwan / the South China Sea and global dominance in general. Many estimate that this war will break out sometime in the 2030s.
Recently the USA created AUKUS, yet another anti China alliance and is now planning to sell nuclear powered submarines to Australia. President of China, Xi JinPing also seems to be tightening is grip on power and preparing the country for an inevitable conflict.
Every industry in China from education, tech, entertainment has been made to fall into line in one way or the other. Children from an early age now are being taught to study the ideology promoted by Xi, while having to salute their student union leaders in a military fashion.
Effeminate male entertainers are being discouraged and corruption / deviance is being systematically purged from every sector. Chinese companies are not being allowed to sell their stocks in the USA or abroad. Anything that would give the slightest leverage or advantage to the west over China is being scrutinized.
Crony capitalism, investments in what China calls (fake businesses) tech start ups for example are being discouraged while China doubles down on its manufacturing sector (real businesses). This makes perfect sense in the context of a war since manufacturing is vital during war time.
If a war were to break what role would Iran play ? I don't believe that Iran would want to be directly involved however China is currently Iran's largest single crude purchaser. In case of a war Indians are counting on choking Chinese energy supplies which transit through the Indian ocean.
As far as I know close to 60% of Chinese energy supplies arrive by ship This is why the One Belt & Road initiative is so vital to China. It's not just about reviving the silk road or expanding trade. It also has the dual purpose of allowing China to secure energy supplies in case of a war.
Now with Afghanistan recently falling, obviously Iran could hypothetically sell crude to China not only via Pakistan but also via Afghanistan. Of course this would be much less cost effective / efficient but during war time energy supplies are absolutely vital, especially a nation with a massive population like China.
Yes China does have a large supply of backup energy reserves as well as huge reserves of gold, foreign currency, etc They could purchase energy supplies through Russia as well. I have no doubt that Putin would be more than happy to supply India with weapons and China with energy at the same time.
Of course this is assuming that Iran couldn't simply escort its tankers to China with help from Pakistan and China along the way as well. As we saw with the recent naval trip to St Petersburg, Iran's navy is more than capable of long voyages.
Not only that but would India really want to try seizing Iranian tankers in such a scenario ? I mean we all saw how that worked out for the UK. Would India really want to antagonize Iran and seirously risk all of its own trade in the Persian Gulf ? I doubt it, but again, even in the worse case scenario, the land route is now more viable than ever before now that the US has been forced out Afghanistan.
I don't think Indians realize how expendable they are in the Quad alliance. The Quad is a loosely nit group of nations that have common interests vs China. Essentially the rest of the members are counting on India to tie up Chinese troops and resources more than anything else. I highly doubt if any Quad members are willing to spare even a drop of blood for Indian territory or interests at large.
The issue is that in case of a war, India will have to face off against Pakistan and China in Kashmir but the real decisive blow will most likely be dealt if China manages to secure the infamous Siliguri corridor or as its referred to "India's chicken neck"
The loss of this vital territory would cut off Assam and all of north eastern India from the rest of India proper. Such a loss would be devastating and would force Delhi to give in to any and all Chinese concessions including war reparations.
Of course in a hypothetical war scenario, nothing is for certain. However simply comparing the way China and India handled the Covid-19 pandemic in each respective country shows us just how woefully unprepared and disorganized the Indians can be when faced with a chaotic situation.
So at the end of the day, I believe that if a war were to break out between the US and its allies vs China, I could see India getting knocked out of the conflict relatively quickly and being forced to make concessions, just like in 1962. This would essentially be one of China's most strategic ambitions and once the Chinese set their mind on something they don't play games. Right now the war drums are beating and things are heating up but again only time will tell.
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