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Iranian Chill Thread

TheImmortal

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That is pretty bad. I know in the US for example, the secret service actually has in theory more power than the president, in the sense that the Secret Service can forcefully detain the president in the event they suspect he is putting himself at risk..

It is too bad as the intel services should have insisted more strongly in his security and forced him into a bullet resistant vehicle.


This has always been something that will be a topic of discussion for quite sometime at what the appropriate response would've or should've been.

It wasn't the issue of capability, but it is clear it was a conscious decision to not retaliate too hard... I think what the people in Iran were thinking is that, the loss of Soleimani was not worth the potential for full-scale conflict had the response been very strong and it was okay to conduct a measured response and then continue with the countries long-term plans instead of risking it all.

In an ideal world the most appropriate response would've been to strike the CENTCOM base in Al-Udeid, likely killing several major US commanders but this of course would've led to the full-scale war scenario that was undesirable to the leadership in Iran. I suspect the civilian leadership is the roadblock here. To afraid of risking their personal wealth and money of course.

I agree with you Dariush, striking Israel is the appropriate response for Fakhrizadeh and is also much more easier than the US. Attacking Israeli Cargo ships is not nearly a good enough response at all. Missed opportunities

Well remember 1998 Iran Security Council voted for war with Taliban over beheading of diplomats and was overruled by SL.

Intresting thought experiment: if Iran did go to war that would mean that Taliban (and Al-Queda) would be distracted fighting Iran and there is a good chance that 9/11 never happens as they are likely focused on attacking Iran. Which means Saddam also never falls. Which means Iran’s massive power expansion never also occurs. It would also mean likely that in 2003 Iran would not have shuttled its nuclear weapons program as the Iraqi war unfolded because Saddam would still be in power and thus threat of Iraqi bomb also in play .

So in fact, one can say Iran owes its power today to the SL leaders decision back in 1998 not to invade Afghanistan.

My point: It’s tough to predict the escalation ladder in advance. Israel did not know its counter attack in 2006 would lead to an embarrassing war nor Nasrallah know ordering the initial attack would trigger this chain of events. (In fact he later said if he knew it would unfold like this, he would never have done it).

Thus Khamenai doesn’t want his legacy to be that of Khomeini which is extending a conflict (Iran-Iraq war) that only ended up making Iran even weaker by the end.

Thus current Iranian philosophy is to absorb the blows as long as you continue moving ahead than it’s acceptable. And by all indications every year Iran is stronger overall than it was the year before. Thus I can see the reasoning behind this doctrine (not that I agree with it).

Also SL knows in the eyes of the world....white man’s lives matter much more than brown man’s lives. So controlling the world narrative would be very difficult if he were to cause mass casualties. Most media in the world is favored to portray the white man as righteous and also as the victim (when deemed convient)
 

TheImmortal

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Not paid too much attention to, but important and oh-so telling...

BBC admits Syria chemical attack documentary had ‘serious flaws’

Read more:
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/bbc-...-attack-documentary-had-serious-flaws.723261/

@sha ah

It was always a fraud. Mustard and Sarin kill in the thousands.

As for Assad’s use of chlorine, I don’t see a problem with it. Israel and US use white phosphorus bombs (which superheat the air and cause your skin to catch on fire) as well as cluster munitions. Both are banned by UN for war use as they considered inhumane. Yet both countries still use it.

So again white man can do bad things, but brown man cannot. What’s new.
 

SalarHaqq

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As for Assad’s use of chlorine, I don’t see a problem with it.

Even that isn't proven. Many hints pointing to use of chlorine by "I"SIS and so-called "moderate" terrorists though (who behead children and eat human organs).

- - - - -

Esmail Gha'ani, Amir Ali Hajizadeh and other top IRGC officials were many times rebuffed by the leader even when presented with a solid, credible retaliation that would put the Zionist regime back into the box.

Is there a credible source for IRGC officials being repeatedly rebuffed by the Leader?

Also, on a general note: this latest article citing anonymous western officials must not necessarily be 100% truthful. Western news agencies lie through their teeth and freely invent things whenever it suits them.
 
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TheImmortal

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Also, on a general note: this latest article citing anonymous western officials must not necessarily be 100% truthful. Western news agencies lie through their teeth and freely invent things whenever it suits them.

NY times article seems credible. If anything it paints IranIan intelligence in a very positive light.

It notes that in 2009 Mossad had to call off Fakhrizadeh assiaination at the last second because they believed Iran had laid an ambush at the attack side.

Also notes that an Iranian agent working for Mossad was captured after assassination of another nuclear scientist way back in the day. And he confessed and was executed.

Overall, blames Fakhrizadeh for his own death. Which was my initial assessment as well when I saw pictures of old unarmored Nissan sedan being the vehicle he died in. Would be awfully strange for Iranian intelligence to allow him to drive in that meanwhile I have seen VIPs drive thru Tehran driving in uparmoured fully tinted special Mercedes with police lights.

Tho I do place some blame on security forces for not forcing him to abide by the security protocols. At the end of the day, his replacement will heed the warnings much better. The man survived 15+ years on Mossad hit list. I heard about him back in 2003. (No picture was available at that time of him, and the one I saw was when he was pretty young mid 30s maybe early 40’s at most).

He wanted to live his life and I can understand that. Tho I believe his duty to his country would have been much more important and require sacrifices that he didn’t (or no longer) wanted to make. Or maybe he wasn’t that valuable anymore and was allowed to make his own decisions. Who knows.
 

Shawnee

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Most important note from the article is Jamali Fash was indeed involved in espionage and terror, and not innocent.

I am not sure why we should believe every word of the article.
Even that isn't proven. Many hints pointing to use of chlorine by "I"SIS and so-called "moderate" terrorists though (who behead children and eat human organs).

- - - - -



Is there a credible source for IRGC officials being repeatedly rebuffed by the Leader?

Also, on a general note: this latest article citing anonymous western officials must not necessarily be 100% truthful. Western news agencies lie through their teeth and freely invent things whenever it suits them.

We have one source that IRGC generals pushed for a harsher avenge against the leader order and also frequently have requested revealing more of their SLV/missile power. Uzi Rubin
 

Shawnee

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Ardeshir%2B3.jpg


Ardeshir Hosseinpour teaching schrodinger equations.

5A01C892-7E54-4FFD-B819-6BBB25BF7191.jpeg


Ardeshir again.
Teenagers and nuclear engineering.

We were in cradles when they thought of deterrence, so we can be secure now.

Freedom does not come free.
Kudos to Ardeshir.
 
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TheImmortal

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We have one source that IRGC generals pushed for a harsher avenge against the leader order and also frequently have requested revealing more of their SLV/missile power. Uzi Rubin

Which IRGC generals? They aren’t homogeneous. Some are more aggressive...some are more conservative.

When the Syria war happened some Generals wanted to negotiate with the West and opposed the Iranian intervention where they say the increasingly long shot of reversing the losses Assad had endured (at the time Assad was on his last legs).

Pretty sure Hajizadeh said in a recent interview he picked the target himself and was prepared to escalate beyond that if the US retaliated. Which tells me the response file was in the hands of Hajizadeh and his missile force with direct approval of SL.
 

Shawnee

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Which IRGC generals? They aren’t homogeneous. Some are more aggressive...some are more conservative.

When the Syria war happened some Generals wanted to negotiate with the West and opposed the Iranian intervention where they say the increasingly long shot of reversing the losses Assad had endured (at the time Assad was on his last legs).

Pretty sure Hajizadeh said in a recent interview he picked the target himself and was prepared to escalate beyond that if the US retaliated. Which tells me the response file was in the hands of Hajizadeh and his missile force with direct approval of SL.

Uzi Rubin did not specify but I felt like it included Hajizadeh. He might have been wrong.

He said Nour satellite and US base missile attack were not allowed by the leader but they forced it through. It could have been his feeling only and not intelligence. Tactical differences in Iran versus pure feelings of Uzi Rubin.
 
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TheImmortal

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Uzi Rubin did not specify but I felt like it included Hajizadeh. He might have been wrong.

He said Nour satellite and US base missile attack were
not allowed by the leader but they forces it through. It could have been his feeling only and not intelligence.

He attempt to veto the Nour satellite but green-light the Amarco attack? Makes zero sense.

It is no secret that Khamenai is opposed to direct conflict. He avoids indeterminable outcomes that could potentially taint his legacy...direct conflict is one of them of those indeterminable outcomes. Even the nuclear deal he hedged his bets and accepted with reluctance as most factions backed the negotiations and the deal.

We should be happy he agreed to Syrian intervention. Allowed Iranian military to get plenty of operational experience in the past decade. Simply invaluable.
 

Stryker1982

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He attempt to veto the Nour satellite but green-light the Amarco attack? Makes zero sense.

It is no secret that Khamenai is opposed to direct conflict. He avoids indeterminable outcomes that could potentially taint his legacy...direct conflict is one of them of those indeterminable outcomes. Even the nuclear deal he hedged his bets and accepted with reluctance as most factions backed the negotiations and the deal.

We should be happy he agreed to Syrian intervention. Allowed Iranian military to get plenty of operational experience in the past decade. Simply invaluable.
Not relevant to your comment, but it's crazy how the NYT are literally telling us that their wasn't a sufficient response to Soleimani and that they are emboldened. Some of us predicted that this would happen, but regardless it leaves no choice for Iran that any such activity must be dealt with as a "last straw".

I suppose one can argue that current enrichment levels with 2 cascades of advanced centrifuges at 60% is the response, and although it doesn't look as spectacular like a kinetic response, it may worry them more than a kinetic retaliation.

PS: Israel must be destroyed.
 
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TheImmortal

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Not relevant to your comment, but it's crazy how the NYT are literally telling us that their wasn't a sufficient response to Soleimani and that they are emboldened. Some of us predicted that this would happen, but regardless it leaves no choice for Iran that any such activity must be dealt with as a "last straw".

I suppose one can argue that current enrichment levels with 2 cascades of advanced centrifuges at 60% is the response, and although it doesn't look as spectacular like a kinetic response, it may worry them more than a kinetic retaliation.

PS: Israel must be destroyed.

The US/Israel found out long ago that Iran doesn’t value human life and embraces martyrdom. This is in complete contradiction to Western viewpoint of human life (Redlines where if a single soldier dies constitute a quick response).

Outside of assassinating the SL, everyone including the once untouchable Solemani is fair game and won’t lead to war.

That is the rules Iran has set forth. And it is the rules the west is playing by. Too late for Iran to change the red lines at this point.
 

sha ah

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Interesting. North Korea shows off railway based missile system. South Korea responds by launching a missile from a submarine. The video says that Seoul's submarine launched missile system is the first to be developed by a non nuclear state.


Kim Jong Un has lost quite a bit of weight. They're calling him slim Kim. LOL


Yet another alliance against China and France gets thrown in the trash. Biden couldn't even remember the Australian prime ministers name. He referred to him as "that fella down under".


The French are extremely bitter about this since their Diesel submarine deal with Australia was supposed to be worth approx $90 billion with technology transfers. Now the Australians have opted instead for nuclear powered submarines from the US/UK. Australia will be the first non nuclear nation to operate nuclear powered submarines. Realistically these submarines will not be operational since atleast the 2030's since the French subs were going to take atleast that long to procure. What is more significant than the subs are access to expanded Australian naval bases for the US/UK.

 

Sineva

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Interesting. North Korea shows off railway based missile system. South Korea responds by launching a missile from a submarine. The video says that Seoul's submarine launched missile system is the first to be developed by a non nuclear state.


Kim Jong Un has lost quite a bit of weight. They're calling him slim Kim. LOL


Yet another alliance against China and France gets thrown in the trash. Biden couldn't even remember the Australian prime ministers name. He referred to him as "that fella down under".


The French are extremely bitter about this since their Diesel submarine deal with Australia was supposed to be worth approx $90 billion with technology transfers. Now the Australians have opted instead for nuclear powered submarines from the US/UK. Australia will be the first non nuclear nation to operate nuclear powered submarines. Realistically these submarines will not be operational since atleast the 2030's since the French subs were going to take atleast that long to procure. What is more significant than the subs are access to expanded Australian naval bases for the US/UK.

I gotta say,biden really isnt looking like the most competent of politicians at the moment.

On an unrelated note,I really hope that iran is giving very serious consideration to developing its own rail mobile systems.
 
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Stryker1982

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Interesting. North Korea shows off railway based missile system. South Korea responds by launching a missile from a submarine. The video says that Seoul's submarine launched missile system is the first to be developed by a non nuclear state.


Kim Jong Un has lost quite a bit of weight. They're calling him slim Kim. LOL


Yet another alliance against China and France gets thrown in the trash. Biden couldn't even remember the Australian prime ministers name. He referred to him as "that fella down under".


The French are extremely bitter about this since their Diesel submarine deal with Australia was supposed to be worth approx $90 billion with technology transfers. Now the Australians have opted instead for nuclear powered submarines from the US/UK. Australia will be the first non nuclear nation to operate nuclear powered submarines. Realistically these submarines will not be operational since atleast the 2030's since the French subs were going to take atleast that long to procure. What is more significant than the subs are access to expanded Australian naval bases for the US/UK.

South Korean military developments have come out very fast.
The US/Israel found out long ago that Iran doesn’t value human life and embraces martyrdom. This is in complete contradiction to Western viewpoint of human life (Redlines where if a single soldier dies constitute a quick response).

Outside of assassinating the SL, everyone including the once untouchable Solemani is fair game and won’t lead to war.

That is the rules Iran has set forth. And it is the rules the west is playing by. Too late for Iran to change the red lines at this point.
I don't think it's too late to change the red lines. You can always change the redlines. Maybe Mercer street, could be a signal that Iran has changed the engagement rules as a signal?

Tolerance levels is set by the SL, and it would have to be noted by the rest of the countries that the modus operandi of Iran has changed. I don't quite see any indication that it has changed, although if their is another issue like Fakhirzadeh I am not too sure on the response...



After Fakhrizadeh we've accelerated the nuke program to new heights it had never reached before, perhaps they are very careful now not to antagonize Iran who is collecting more and more fissile material.
 
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