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Iranian Chill Thread

zectech

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It's because of the JCPOA mostly which caused the currency to devaluate. The first year after the JCPOA was signed the economy grew by 13%.

They really put too much emphasis and faith in the US and the west, that's true. Anyways just when Iran's economy could have recovered, Covid hit and not that long ago the oil prices crashed.

After the US sanctions, oil prices crashing and Covid, it all hit Iran pretty hard, but now Iran's oil sales are pretty much to pre-sanction levels, oil prices are up, there's an end in sight for Covid and Iran's economy is set to grow this year and the next few years.

One thing Raesi said is that he's going to give the poor 10x more money. Isn't that going to cause high inflation though ? I mean unless they freeze the price of commodities ? or unless they do it gradually ?

I just can't see prices of rice, bread and essentials going up much more. Probably something like food stamps would be better or putting the money into a national food bank no ?
I have said this nearly two years ago, I'll say this again. Iran has huge copper mines. Iran needs to go to a copper backed rial.

1000000 banknote = approx 60 USD
500000 banknote = approx 30 USD
100000 banknote
50000 banknote = approx 3 USD
25000 banknote
15000 rial = approx 1 USD
10000 banknote
5000 banknote
5000 rial coin - 100% pure copper troy ounce coin
2500 rial coin - copper half troy ounce
1250 rial coin - copper quarter troy ounce
500 rial coin - copper dime 1/10 of a troy ounce
50 rial coin - copper-nickel-aluminum penny

And I explained:


The West would collapse the price of copper, that is why I valued the copper one ounce coin at 5000 rial. So that when copper prices are cut in half, 1USD = 30000 rial.

Have the Iranian rial value fixed to the price of copper.
 

TheImmortal

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I have said this nearly two years ago, I'll say this again. Iran has huge copper mines. Iran needs to go to a copper backed rial.

1000000 banknote = approx 60 USD
500000 banknote = approx 30 USD
100000 banknote
50000 banknote = approx 3 USD
25000 banknote
15000 rial = approx 1 USD
10000 banknote
5000 banknote
5000 rial coin - 100% pure copper troy ounce coin
2500 rial coin - copper half troy ounce
1250 rial coin - copper quarter troy ounce
500 rial coin - copper dime 1/10 of a troy ounce
50 rial coin - copper-nickel-aluminum penny

And I explained:


The West would collapse the price of copper, that is why I valued the copper one ounce coin at 5000 rial. So that when copper prices are cut in half, 1USD = 30000 rial.

Have the Iranian rial value fixed to the price of copper.
You cannot fix an fiat currency to a precious metal. Because what will happen is heavy manipulation at times of budget deficits where other countries will take advantage of arbitrage opportunity in predicting future price direction of copper vs iranian rial. This is one reason US abandoned it under Nixon. Too many counties were converting dollars to gold and calling it back to their banks. This was impacting the dollar as the US had to burn more currency to exchange for gold to satisfy obligations.

The best iran can do is a floating basket of world currencies and top crypto to tie its currency too. But simply just having sustainable economic growth in excess of 5% will strength the currency as well as slashing zeros and moving to toman.
 

sha ah

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Iran really has to focus on mining since it has the potential to make just as much on mining as from oil. Imagine the jobs that would create. I don't know about crypto either because its too vulnerable to fluctuation. However digitizing the currency and making it easy and cheap to send / receive money is a must.

A 500,000 rial banknote is $2 right now on the open market, not $30 US.
Right now 1 USD = 230,000 rial or 23,000 toman (www.bonbast.com)

Also when Iran's currency began devaluing people thought that Iran should tie its currency to the price of crude. See what happened with crude ? Price crashed.

The best thing Iran can do is to be fiscally responsible, get back in the JCPOA and slash 4 zeros from the current currency gradually as they're planning to.

All these zeros have become pointless. The new system is proposing to slash 4 zeros from the rial, then just call it toman and have 1 toman = 100 gherun.

They say it's not good to slash zeros but if they introduce the bills gradually and have a period where the two currencies are floating at the same time for a few months then people will get used to it.

However if they just slash all the zeros abruptly, people will get confused and just add more zeros to everything again. It's funny how psychology works.

Once 1 USD = 23 toman instead of 230,000 rial or 23,000 toman, it's going to be much more convenient and simple. Hopefully the bills will be high quality as well.

You cannot fix an fiat currency to a precious metal. Because what will happen is heavy manipulation at times of budget deficits where other countries will take advantage of arbitrage opportunity in predicting future price direction of copper vs iranian rial. This is one reason US abandoned it under Nixon. Too many counties were converting dollars to gold and calling it back to their banks. This was impacting the dollar as the US had to burn more currency to exchange for gold to satisfy obligations.

The best iran can do is a floating basket of world currencies and top crypto to tie its currency too. But simply just having sustainable economic growth in excess of 5% will strength the currency as well as slashing zeros and moving to toman.
 
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zectech

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Iran really has to focus on mining since it has the potential to make just as much on mining as from oil. Imagine the jobs that would create. I don't know about crypto either because its too vulnerable to fluctuation. However digitizing the currency and making it easy and cheap to send / receive money is a must.

However a 500,000 rial banknote is $2 right now on the open market, not $30 US. Right now 1 USD = 230,000 rial or 23,000 toman (www.bonbast.com)

Also when Iran's currency began devaluing people thought that Iran should tie its currency to the price of crude. See what happened with crude ? Price crashed.

The best thing Iran can do is to be fiscally responsible, get back in the JCPOA and slash 4 zeros from the current currency gradually as they're planning to.

All these zeros have become pointless. The new system is proposing to slash 4 zeros from the rial, then just call it toman and have 1 toman = 100 gherun.

They say it's not good to slash zeros but if they introduce the bills gradually and have a period where the two currencies are floating at the same time for a few months then people will get used to it.

However if they just slash all the zeros abruptly, people will get confused and just add more zeros to everything again. It's funny how psychology works.

Once 1 USD = 23 toman instead of 230,000 rial or 23,000 toman, it's going to be much more convenient and simple. Hopefully the bills will be high quality as well.
I am saying that is how the rial needs to be revalued. Iran can set 5000 rial to be 1USD, once you go to a copper backed currency. Though 15000 = 1 USD is a happy medium.

You see a copper one troy ounce coin, which would back the rial, is worth about 0,33 USD.

So a 5000 rial one troy ounce copper coin = 1/3 of a dollar. So 15000 = approx 1 USD.
 
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sha ah

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Honestly I think that it would be too risky. Look what happened to oil recently with the price crashing. As soon as Iran ties its currency to copper, the USA, Israel and Saudis will begin buying all the copper just so they can dump it. Iran can't outproduce or outbuy them so then what is Iran going to do ?

No honestly like I said, Iran needs to be fiscally responsible and reform the currency with the plan they have in mind already. If Iran rejoins the JCPOA then the economy will surely grow by more than 5%. If not then it will be less than 5% for the next few years as the world bank has forecast.

I am saying that is how the rial needs to be revalued. Iran can set 5000 rial to be 1USD, once you go to a copper backed currency. Though 15000 = 1 USD is a happy medium.
 

zectech

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Honestly I think that it would be too risky. Look what happened to oil recently with the price crashing. As soon as Iran ties its currency to copper, the USA, Israel and Saudis will begin buying all the copper just so they can dump it. Iran can't outproduce or outbuy them so then what is Iran going to do ?

No honestly like I said, Iran needs to be fiscally responsible and reform the currency with the plan they have in mind already. If Iran rejoins the JCPOA then the economy will surely grow by more than 5%. If not then it will be less than 5% for the next few years as the world bank has forecast.
I already know there is going to be an attack on copper. I wrote that in the post.

You price the initial copper backing so that Iran can't lose. Meaning copper would have to go below 1 dollar per pound. Which is unsustainable.

In the previous posts from 2019 and 2020, Iran would need to stop selling their silver, and stockpile that.

Once fixed to copper, YOU CAN'T have runaway hyperinflation. Copper can only go so low. Your ally China, can buy up the copper in the open market, driving up the price if copper is attacked. Copper would need to go to 30 cents a pound to start having hyper inflation at the current level of black market of rial, which is nearly impossible. If that happens, switch to silver backing from stockpiles.
 

sha ah

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Iran has the 9th largest deposits of copper and is the 13th largest producer but Iran only produces 200,000 metric tons a year, whereas Chile, the largest producer of copper produces 3.4 million metric tons

I think the biggest issue with tying Iran's currency to copper is that Iran is not a top 10 producer of copper and does not produce much. Also the Iranian government does not have a large amount of copper or metals in the bank. More importantly a nations currency is tied to psychology and a countries national image.

One of the biggest issues with the US sanctions is that nobody wants Iran's currency anymore, not even neighboring or regional countries and Iran can't use the international banking system, which is 10x more efficient then moving around or trading metals for vital commodities.

So unless Iran strictly used metal as its currency, which is not feasible, then I can't see it. Btw the reason why the world switched from metals to paper fiat currency is because there simply wasn't enough metal to go around. China was actually the first nation to use paper currency long before anyone else.

You know what's funny ? If you look at foreign exchange and gold reserves (PPP) rankings by nation, Iran is number 20, the USA is number 19


Iran is number 13 in Copper production, producing 200,000 metric tons.

Chile is number 1 producing 3.4 million metric tons


Iran has the worlds largest deposits of zinc, 9th largest deposits of copper, 12th largest iron, 10th largest uranium.

I already know there is going to be an attack on copper. I wrote that in the post.

You price the initial copper backing so that Iran can't lose. Meaning copper would have to go below 1 dollar per pound. Which is unsustainable.

In the previous posts from 2019 and 2020, Iran would need to stop selling their silver, and stockpile that.

Once fixed to copper, YOU CAN'T have runaway hyperinflation. Copper can only go so low. Your ally China, can buy up the copper in the open market, driving up the price if copper is attacked. Copper would need to go to 30 cents a pound to start having hyper inflation at the current level of black market of rial, which is nearly impossible. If that happens, switch to silver backing from stockpiles.
 
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Shawnee

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You base your currency on your internal production capacity and not metals.

Great Depression happened because of gold believers.

Nixon correctly decided to go that route and it has paid well. Nixon believed in America and S&P 500 instead of gold. It will continue to work until moving average of economy tips toward China. Then dollar will crash.

I am a crypto believer in the long run because it fulfills an unmet need. In the short run, it is volatile.

If you were based on Gold and Copper, you would lose 10-15% over the last week for no good reason. Everything dropped. Gold, silver, copper, Uranium, Paladium, …
Metal stocks and ETFs dropped like a stone for no good reason.

Also Gold will not grow. It is just an inflation hedge and fck it has not even done that job this year. It is static. You should base your self on something that grows like innovation and internal production. Invest in yourself and not Gold.
 

sha ah

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I don't see the USD crashing anytime soon since the entire world uses USD to trade. Even if you want to buy pallets or truckloads of goods from China, they only accept USD. They will not accept their own currency. The day China actually does accept its own currency, that will be like an arrow to the heart of the USD, but China is not ready for that yet.

The thing about crypto is that aside from people that invest in it, the majority of people that actually use it, only use it for illicit purposes, like buying or selling drugs on the dark web or ransomware, extortion and other crimes. Also the fact that some cryptos have to be mined through algorithms needlessly eats up lots of the worlds electricity.

When if you think about it a digital currency can simply be created based on need. I believe blockchain has a future and that the worlds banks will eventually incorporate it into payment systems since SWIFT is outdated and slow, however I don't see lots of ordinary people using crypto to pay for groceries or their rent or necessities.

One of my friends tried to convince me to buy 1000 Bitcoins when it was $1 each. I laughed at him. LOL Anyways the golden days of profiting off of crypto is over. Some people say that bitcoin will eventually reach $100,000. I believe it will eventually.

You base your currency on your internal production capacity and not metals.

Great Depression happened because of gold believers.

Nixon correctly decided to go that route and it has paid well. Nixon believed in America and S&P 500 instead of gold. It will continue to work until moving average of economy tips toward China. Then dollar will crash.

I am a crypto believer in the long run because it fulfills an unmet need. In the short run, it is volatile.

If you were based on Gold and Copper, you would lose 10-15% over the last week for no good reason. Everything dropped. Gold, silver, copper, Uranium, Paladium, …
Metal stocks and ETFs dropped like a stone for no good reason.

Also Gold will not grow. It is just an inflation hedge and fck it has not even done that job this year. It is static. You should base your self on something that grows like innovation and internal production. Invest in yourself and not Gold.
 
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Shawnee

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I don't see the USD crashing anytime soon since the entire world uses USD to trade. Even if you want to buy pallets or truckloads of goods from China, they only accept USD. They will not accept their own currency. The day China actually does accept its own currency, that will be like an arrow to the heart of the USD, but China is not ready for that yet.

The thing about crypto is that aside from people that invest in it, the majority of people that actually use it, only use it for illicit purposes, like buying or selling drugs on the dark web or ransomware, extortion and other crimes. Also the fact that some cryptos have to be mined through algorithms needlessly eats up lots of the worlds electricity.

When if you think about it a digital currency can simply be created based on need. I believe blockchain has a future and that the worlds banks will eventually incorporate it into payment systems since SWIFT is outdated and slow, however I don't see lots of ordinary people using crypto to pay for groceries or their rent or necessities.

One of my friends tried to convince me to buy 1000 Bitcoins when it was $1 each. I laughed at him. LOL Anyways the golden days of profiting off of crypto is over. Realistically now there are stocks that can go up as much as bitcoin can in 1-2 years.
It is a long discussion for each item.

I will limit it to Dollar value only. The moving average will tip toward China when the innovation and media power and etc also tip toward China. Then Nixon idea starts to collapse.

داداش فک کنم منظورت بوده وقتی بیت کوین هزار دلار بود

بیتکوین یک دلاری چهار ماه بعد پیدایش بیتکوین بوده و صرفا بین ساتوشی و چند نفر محدود بوده​
 
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zectech

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Global production only have about 50 years supply of copper for production, according to various estimates. After that there is not anymore copper to mine. Copper is very scare in terms of amount of production left.

200000 metric tons = 6.430.149.400t oz per year

So Iran can make 6 billion very large troy ounce coins with their copper, every year. Each worth 0,33 USD. 2 billion USD worth of coins with copper each year.

Since the price of copper can't go below around 50 cents a pound, as mines would shut down, the Western terrorists would make the price volatile, this can be defeat with a 30 day moving average conversion rate.

You would need Russia and China buying up copper at very low prices to support ally Iran to provide a price floor.

Iran should lower their production of zinc, as that metal is supposed to only have less than 20 years left in global supply at current rate of production. Metal is money. Metal is more valuable than oil and gas. Sell as much oil and gas as possible. Keep iron, copper and zinc from exporting.

The West wants Iran to run dry on metal and to not sell oil and gas. Metal is what makes the world go round.
 
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SalarHaqq

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this toilet paper is your source?
Well said.

Until recently, media from the west and their vassal states were at least trying to be subtle and not to make their disinformation efforts all too obvious.

A the state level, some high-ranking US official, I believe it was Hillary Clinton, openly admitted that Washington resorts to spreading untruth about Iran.

And then look at blatantly misleading "journalism" such as this (quoted from the "toilet paper"):

"officials watched videos on their mobile phones as state television blared beside them, offering only tight shots of locations around the country — as opposed to the long, snaking lines of past elections"

In fact, I watched Iranian state television for at least four hours in a row on Sunday, and there were plenty of wide shots of locations around the country, contrary to what this propaganda piece by AP is suggesting. Even Meydan-e Emam or Imam Square of Isfahan, the world's largest closed square, was shown through a panoramic lense.

__________

Its good to see that you have come back from a long absence just to make ur RETURN and defend @Falcon29. Wow, im glad that u popped up. Quite a Co incidence though. That u show up out of nowhere to defend the fact that you two are different people. Hmmmm, Interesting.

And btw I NEVER SAID THAT YOU WERE NOT PALESTINIAN, I made the accusation against @Falcon29. Now why wud you take that accusation upon urself unless you two are the same person? Logically, you wudnt. But u have done just that.

Check my post, i never said u were not a palestinian,I said falcon was not. And I said you two were the same guy. And it seems that u just proved to me that I was right. Hahahaha.
That was funny, haha. But try not to get yourself banned for nothing, brother (apparently, when you yourself suggest a certain user has several accounts, it's an instant ban, but some other person, who has done the exact same thing several times in the past seems to be granted a blank check in this regard). Your presence is always a plus when trolls need to be confronted. And thanks by the way for inquiring about me when I was absent a couple of months ago.

__________

These Indian kon nashor bullshiters of this channel really agitate me here, Now i as an Iranian demand that the Islamic Revaluation to be exported to India asap, Time to make India Muslim again.
Why even bother about these morons, brother? They're far removed and have no incidence on Iranian affairs. Also, look at them: "angrier Khomeneis" the video's thumbnail picture says, what the heck are "Khomeneis" (sic)? Hahaha.
 
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sha ah

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