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Iranian Chill Thread

Arian

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Avvalan ke khāheshmand hastam ye nafase 'amigh bekeshid, zirā hich lozumi nabud chenin lahni rā bekār bebarid. Ettefāghan benazar miresad ma'nāye ezhārāte bande rā sad dar sad motevadje nashode bāshid.

Here's what I am and have been saying before:

1) There is no consensus on demographic and other social, demographic and economical statistics in Iran. Different organs and officials publish conflicting figures, which in and by itself is a huge issue that reflects an improper politicization of statistical surveys.

What this member of the liberal, incompetent if not treasonous Rohani administration has claimed about Iran's fertility rate, should therefore not necessarily be taken as gospel.

2) But even if we assume he is right with his 1.6 fertility rate figure - it is still completely false to claim that this is due to the Islamic Republic trying to uphold Tradition or implementing sharia law. It is just as erroneous to assume that secularization of governance and law will lead to a reversal of this demographic trend.

A country such as Turkey, which you cited as a counter-example, and which indeed is a secular state that does not apply sharia law, is not doing any better than Islamic Iran in terms of its fertility rate. Turkey too has a fertility rate lower than 2.1, i.e. generational replacement is jeopardized in Turkey as well!

Here is evidence from a Turkish news service: https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/turkey-s-fertility-rate-outpaces-27-eu-member-states-45274

In 2019, Turkey's fertility rate was of 1.88 only. And that even made Turkey a leader in Europe, since it outpaced all of the 27 EU member states with such a weak and insufficient figure.

I hope you realize what this means. It simply means that if you suppress sharia law and move towards secularization of the state and politics, and if you marginalize religious education and public discourse in Iran, you will not solve Iran's low fertility rate problem, and in fact you'll make it even worse!

3) The two actual reasons behind Iran's acute demographic problem are the following:

- Liberal propaganda and social engineering beamed into Iran around the clock by foreign Farsi-language media funded by the Iranian nation's existential enemies (zionist regime, USA and its NATO allies including the EU regimes, Haifan Bahai organization and international globalist and zionist oligarchy), both on satellite TV and on the internet.
This encourages Iranians to adopt western decadent lifestyles which are not conducive to a cohesive family life and to natality.

- Modernization and urbanization of the society. That includes increased participation of women in public and economic life, which the Islamic Republic not only did not oppose, but actively encouraged and promoted, as we all know. When over 50% of university students are females, and when more and more Iranian women are active on the job market instead of fulfilling their traditional roles, we need to take a step back, pause a little bit and reflect deeply. Modernization and so-called "enhancement of the role of women" are all fine and dandy, but not when they come at the price of the nation's survival.

And no, you will not find a counter-example anywhere in the world of a society that trod his path of "modernity" and did not encounter demographic ageing issues, be it in the west - which is the most affected of all, or in relatively developed Muslim countries such as Turkey or Malaysia.

4) I never ever claimed this is not a serious, urgent, pressing, existential challenge and even a threat to Iran's survival as a nation and civilization.
So please don't suggest I was trying to deny or cover it up. On the contrary, there is a comment of mine somewhere where I labeled the demographic question as a "ticking time bomb" for Iran. My issue is with your analysis of the reasons that led to this situation, as well as with the proposed solutions that stem from any such analysis. And above I proved why. More modernism, more liberalism or a move towards secularism are not the solution. In fact they would be a recipe for total disaster and for national mass suicide.

There's only one solution, and Iranian authorities better enact it before it's too late: classical family support measures by the government, subsidies and other advantages for married couples with more than two children, in addition to appropriate and intensive national information campaigns and social counter-engineering. Va salām shod tamām.
دقیقاً همونی شد که گفتم. گفتم الان میای یه طومار چیزهای بی‌ربط می‌نویسی

گفته بودی که آمار ایران بالاتر از کشورهای منطقه و اروپایی هست و حتی گزارشی که از مشرق نیوز برات فرستاده بودم که رهبر به وزارت بهداشت توپیده بود رو زیر سئوال بردی گفتی درست نیست. نرخ باروری ۱.۶ یعنی در حد کشورهای شمال اروپا و اروپای غربی. حتی پایین‌تر از کشورهایی مثل فرانسه و سوئد و دانمارک و در حد کشوری مثل آلمان

با دو تفاوت خیلی عمده البته. یکی اینکه این کشورهای اروپایی تمام توسعه یافته هستن ولی ما هنوز در حال توسعه هستیم و دو اینکه این کشورهای اروپایی که نرخ باروری پایین دارن لااقل نرخ مهاجرت بالا دارن که باعث می‌شه نیروی انسانی تأمین بشه اما در ایران نرخ مهاجرت هم سالهاست به سمت شدید منفی شدن رفته، حتی با وجود مهاجرین افغان که حتی خوندن و نوشتن هم بلد نیستن. نخبگان علمی و ورزشی و اقتصادی (به جز شارلاتان‌های وابسته به نظام که اختلاس‌های چندهزار میلیاردی می‌کنند) رو داریم می‌دیم به کشورهای دیگه و جاش مهاجرینی رو می‌گیریم که حتی خوندن و نوشتن هم بلد نیستن بیشترشون و برخیشون اصلاً با فرهنگ‌های متضاد با ما هستن مثل پشتون‌ها

یعنی به نوعی داریم گند می‌زنیم به خزانه ژنتیکی کشور و ارزش‌های جامعه. آدم‌های باهوش، قد بلند و ورزشکار و پولدار و کارآفرین رو می‌ذاریم از ایران خارج بشن و بعد بهشون فحش می‌دیم که شما وطن فروشین و ... و جاش افرادی میان که حتی از متوسط جامعه ایران هم پایین‌تر هستند و برخیشون ته دلشون ایرانی‌ها رو کافر می‌دونند

خود این آمار حرف تو رو نقض می‌کنه. اگر قرار بود شریعت اسلام باعث جلوگیری از پایین اومدن نرخ باروری بشه که آمار ایران به عنوان تنها کشوری که داره شریعت اسلام رو واقعاً پیاده می‌کنه این شکلی نبود. بیشترین نرخ باروری تو کشورهای آفریقایی هست که بیشترشون مسلمون هم نیستن. خیلی‌هاشون هنوز قبایلی دارن که مردم توش لخت هستن ولی نرخ باروریشون چندبرابر کشورهای دیگه هست

ترکیه که سکولار هست نرخ باروری بیشتری از ما داره که نزدیک ۲ هست. تقریباً همه کشورهای هم فرهنگ ما تو منطقه که مثل ما مذهب رو تو حلق ملت نمی‌کنند نرخ باروری بیشتری از ما دارن. لبنانی که مردمش یکی از سکولارترین مردمان منطقه هستن نرخ باروریشون بالای ۲ هست. سوریه که هم سکولار هستند هم جنگ زده هستند نرخ باروریشون ۲.۷ هست. عراق ۳.۵ هست و آذربایجان شوروی ۲ هست و تقریباً هر کشوری که کنار دست ما نگاه کنی همین وضعیت هست و فقط مایی که از دید تو بهترین کشور جهان هستیم در منطقه شدیدترین مشکلات دموگرافیک رو داریم​
 

SalarHaqq

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گفته بودی که آمار ایران بالاتر از کشورهای منطقه و اروپایی هست و حتی گزارشی که از مشرق نیوز برات فرستاده بودم که رهبر به وزارت بهداشت توپیده بود رو زیر سئوال بردی گفتی درست نیست. نرخ باروری ۱.۶ یعنی در حد کشورهای شمال اروپا و اروپای غربی. حتی پایین‌تر از کشورهایی مثل فرانسه و سوئد و دانمارک و در حد کشوری مثل آلمان​
The fact that there are conflicting statistics about Iran and that none of us has the means to verify which figure is accurate, is not unrelated to the discussion.

Germany's fertility rate was of 1.596 births per woman in 2020, so Iran is not doing worse than them. Also, birthrates in western Europe tend to be artificially bloated by mass immigration from developing nations.


با دو تفاوت خیلی عمده البته. یکی اینکه این کشورهای اروپایی تمام توسعه یافته هستن ولی ما هنوز در حال توسعه هستیم و دو اینکه این کشورهای اروپایی که نرخ باروری پایین دارن لااقل نرخ مهاجرت بالا دارن که باعث می‌شه نیروی انسانی تأمین بشه اما در ایران نرخ مهاجرت هم سالهاست به سمت شدید منفی شدن رفته، حتی با وجود مهاجرین افغان که حتی خوندن و نوشتن هم بلد نیستن

I mentioned Turkey's fertility rate of a mere 1.88. Turkey's HDI is hardly superior to Iran's while its fertility rate is very close if not inferior (since none of us knows which figure given for Iran is the correct one). So, one cannot say that only the most developed countries experience demographic transition.

The same example of Turkey proves that secularization isn't a solution to the issue. Hence, there are no grounds to single out the Islamic Repunlic or to blame its theocratic nature for Iran's current fertility rate. Doing so wouldn't be scientific at all. Not least because when sharia law used to be implemented in the strictest way, that is during the 1980's - as opposed to nowadays, Iran's fertility rate was one of the most elevated on earth.


نخبگان علمی و ورزشی و اقتصادی (به جز شارلاتان‌های وابسته به نظام که اختلاس‌های چندهزار میلیاردی می‌کنند) رو داریم می‌دیم به کشورهای دیگه و جاش مهاجرینی رو می‌گیریم که حتی خوندن و نوشتن هم بلد نیستن بیشترشون و برخیشون اصلاً با فرهنگ‌های متضاد با ما هستن مثل پشتون‌ها
The so-called brain drain supposedly affecting Iran is vastly exaggerated in popular representations.

Considering the quantity of highly qualified personnel that the national economy of Iran is able to absorb, the fact is that Iran's universities are producing a surplus of graduates, therefore emigration of some is a necessity even.

A second fact is that in reality and contrary to the anti-IR propaganda peddled by media and gossip left and right, Iran has a pretty low rate of emigration. Iranian overseas communities are not particularly numerous in international comparison. A country such as south Korea (known as the "suicide capital of the world"), whose average education level is superior to Iran's, has a significantly higher proportion of nationals living abroad compared to Iran. And those south Korean emigrants are anything but under-educated.

Also, thank God Iran is not a destination for mass immigration, and luckily the only large group of permanent immigrant residents (i. e. Afghans) are linguistically and culturally speaking almost identical to the locals. Erosion of national identity and of local specificity are a consequence of mass immigration from culturally alien spots, as can be observed everywhere in western Europe. Definitely not something an Iranian patriot should long for.

As for the Afghan immigrants, they are filling a relative void on the job market, by taking care of tasks less and less Iranians are willing to carry out.

Last but not least, let us not underestimate the power of the Persian-language media funded by Iran's foreign enemies, and well as their ability to brainwash educated Iranians into idealizing the west while looking down on their own country in a completely unjustified manner. I said it before, the sheer magnitude and perfidy of the anti-IR propaganda machine put in place by NATO regimes and the globalist oligarchy, is unprecedented in human history. Once again, take that factor out of the equation and the number of educated Iranians willing to leave their country will suddenly decrease in a sharp and sudden manner.

یعنی به نوعی داریم گند می‌زنیم به خزانه ژنتیکی کشور و ارزش‌های جامعه. آدم‌های باهوش، قد بلند و ورزشکار و پولدار و کارآفرین رو می‌ذاریم از ایران خارج بشن و بعد بهشون فحش می‌دیم که شما وطن فروشین و ... و جاش افرادی میان که حتی از متوسط جامعه ایران هم پایین‌تر هستند و برخیشون ته دلشون ایرانی‌ها رو کافر می‌دونند
We are not causing this. Our enemies are for the most part, with their incessant propaganda and social engineering, whose considerable effects cannot be understated.

Even so, for a developing country Iran is doing well in the stated areas. Lots of developed, industrialized nations are worse off than Iran when it comes to emigration, brain drain, and so on.

As for "tall people", I'm not sure whether this is serious...? The token number of athletes leaving Iran after being brainwashed by western and zionist propaganda, are not going to affect the average height of Iranians. Never mind the fact that athletes aren't necessarily tall. Lots of spite for the Islamic Republic can be sensed in the above quoted words, and it seems this spite can at times lead to outlandish claims.


خود این آمار حرف تو رو نقض می‌کنه. اگر قرار بود شریعت اسلام باعث جلوگیری از پایین اومدن نرخ باروری بشه که آمار ایران به عنوان تنها کشوری که داره شریعت اسلام رو واقعاً پیاده می‌کنه این شکلی نبود. بیشترین نرخ باروری تو کشورهای آفریقایی هست که بیشترشون مسلمون هم نیستن. خیلی‌هاشون هنوز قبایلی دارن که مردم توش لخت هستن ولی نرخ باروریشون چندبرابر کشورهای دیگه هست
I didn't claim sharia law guarantees high fertility rates. All I pointed to, and my point stands, is that sharia law is not the cause for the decrease in birthrates. The comparison with Turkey provides undeniable proof of this. Turkey too has seen its fertility rate decrease continuously, so much so that it has now fallen below the 2.1 limit necessary for generational renewal.

Then again, one of the main factors I highlighted is being ignored, and that is the incomparably massive amount of propaganda and social engineering Iranians are subjected to, as opposed to Turks or others.

So yes, if it takes such a humongous propaganda campaign to push down Iran's fertility rate, then theocracy is arguably quite the barrier against undesirable demographic recession. What remains to be done now is to neutralize the enemy's soft war, and to implement adequate countermeasures such as the ones I alluded to before.


ترکیه که سکولار هست نرخ باروری بیشتری از ما داره.
We're discussing whether the replacement of generations is ensured or not. And with a fertility rate of 1.88, secular Turkey is visibly failing in this department.

Furthermore the Turkish population are not being subjected to the kind of propaganda campaign Iranians are suffering from. Because their regime is secular already - it ensures demographic decay all by itself, by virtue if its nature. No gazillion anti-regime sites or social media accounts are required for Turkey, nor dozens of BBC / Manoto type satellite broadcasters.


لبنانی که مردمش یکی از سکولارترین مردمان منطقه هستن نرخ باروریشون بالای ۲ هست. سوریه که هم سکولار هستند هم جنگ زده هستند نرخ باروریشون ۲.۷ هست. عراق ۳.۵ هست و آذربایجان شوروی ۲ هست و تقریباً هر کشوری که کنار دست ما نگاه کنی همین وضعیت هست

Being at war does not necessarily hamper birthrates. When Islamic Iran was itself in an armed conflict between 1980 and 1988, it also registered extremely elevated fertility rates. So this does not invalidate my point.

The mentioned countries for the most part are not as developed as Iran. With social development, with urbanization, with modernization comes decrease in birthrates.

And, none of their populations is exposed to the type of massive, omnipresent liberal propaganda, psy-ops and social engineering endeavour which Iranians are suffering from, propaganda which takes aim at the nuclear family structure and at traditional values and lifestyles, inoculates unrealistically bleak future perspectives and thereby mechanically lowers people's incentive and motivation for procreation.
 
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Arian

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The fact that there are conflicting statistics in Iran as opposed to other countries, and that none of us here has the means to verify which figure is accurate, isn't unrelated to the discussion.

Germany's fertility rate was of 1.596 births per woman in 2020, so Iran is definitely not doing worse than them. Also, birthrates in western Europe tend to be artificially bloated by mass immigration from developing nations with higher rates.

I mentioned Turkey's fertility rate of a mere 1.88. Turkey's HDI is hardly superior to Iran's, and its fertility rate is comparable, if not inferior (since none of us knows which figure given for Iran is the correct one). So one can't say that only the most developed countries on earth experience demographic transition.

Secularization is not a solution to this issue, as proven by the example of Turkey.

Therefore, there are no grounds to single out Islamic Iran and blame its theocratic nature for Iran's current fertility rate. Doing so wouldn't be scientific. Not least because when sharia law used to be implemented in the strictest way, that is during the 1980's and as opposed to nowadays, Iran's fertility rate was one of the most elevated on earth.
The so-called brain drain affecting Iran is vastly exaggerated in popular representations.

Considering the quantity of elites which the national economy of Iran is able to absorb, the fact is that Iran's universities produce a surplus of graduates, so emigration of some is even a necessity.

A second fact is that in reality and contrary to the anti-IR propaganda peddled everywhere, Iran has a pretty low emigration rate. A country such as south Korea (the "suicide capital of the world"), whose average education level is superior to Iran's, has a significantly higher proportion of nationals living abroad compared to Iran. And those south Korean emigrants are nowhere under-educated.

Also, thank God Iran is not a destination for mass immigration, and luckily the only large group of permanent immigrant residents (i. e. Afghans) are linguistically- and culturally-speaking almost identical to the locals. Erosion of national identity and of local specificity are a consequence of mass immigration from culturally alien spots, as can be observed everywhere in western Europe. Definitely not something an Iranian patriot should long for.

As for the Afghan immigrants, they are filling a relative void on the job market, by taking care of tasks less and less Iranians are willing to carry out.

Last but not least, let us not underestimate the power of the Persian-language media funded by Iran's enemies and their ability to brainwash educated Iranians into idealizing the west while looking down on their own country in a completely unjustified manner. I said it before, the sheer magnitude and perfidy of the anti-IR propaganda machine put in place by NATO regimes and the globalist oligarchy, is unprecedented in human history. Once again, take that factor out of the equation and the number of educated Iranians willing to leave their country will suddenly decrease in a sharp and sudden manner.
We are not causing this. Our enemies are for the most part, with their incessant propaganda and social engineering, whose considerable effects cannot be understated.

Even so, for a developing country Iran is doing quite well in the stated areas. Even lots of developed, industrialized nations are worse off than Iran when it comes to emigration, brain drain, and so on.

As for "tall people", I'm not sure whether this is serious...? The token number of athletes who leave Iran under the influence of western and zionist propaganda, are not going to affect the average height of Iranians. Never mind the fact that athletes aren't necessarily tall. I can sense lots of spite for the Islamic Republic in the above quoted words, and it seems this spite can sometimes lead to outlandish claims.

I didn't claim sharia law guarantees high fertility rates. All I pointed to, and will gladly repeat, is that sharia law is not the cause for the decrease in birthrates. The comparison with Turkey is uncontested proof of this. Turkey too has seen its fertility rate decrease continuously, and it has now fallen below the 2.1 limit necessary for generational renewal.

Then again, you are failing to take into account one of the main factors I highlighted, and that is the incomparably massive amount of propaganda and social engineering Iranians are subjected to, as opposed to Turks or others.

So yes, if it takes such a humongous propaganda campaign promoting liberal values to push down Iran's fertility rate, then theocracy is arguably quite the barrier against undesirable demographic recession indeed. What remains to be done now is to neutralize the enemy's soft war, and to implement case-specific countermeasures such as the ones I alluded to before.
We're discussing whether the replacement of generations is ensured or not. And with a fertility rate of 1.88, secular Turkey is visibly failing in this department.

Furthermore the Turkish population are not being subjected to the kind of propaganda campaign Iranians are suffering from. Because their regime is secular already - it ensures demographic decay all by itself, by virtue if its nature. No gazillion anti-regime internet sites or social media accounts are required for Turkey, nor dozens of BBC / Manoto type of satellite broadcasters.

When Islamic Iran itself was at war between 1980 and 1988, it also registered extremely elevated fertility rates. So this is not invalidating my point.

The mentioned countries are for the most part not as developed as Iran. With social development, with urbanization, with modernization comes decrease in birthrates.

And none of their populations is exposed to the type of massive, omnipresent liberal propaganda and social engineering endeavor which Iranians are suffering from, propaganda which takes aim at the nuclear family structure and at traditional values and lifestyles, inoculates unrealistically bleak future perspectives and depression, and thereby lowers fertility.
با عرض شرمندگی، دوباره یه طومار حرف‌هایی نوشتی که بخش زیادیش رو خودت هم می‌دونی که غیرصادقانه هستند

نرخ باروری ترکیه تو سال ۲۰۲۰ دقیقاً ۲.۰۴۶ بوده. با اعشارش گفتم چون مثل اینکه چند هزارم برات خیلی مهم هست. برگشتی می‌گی آلمان اوضاعش بهتر از ما نیست چون نرخش ۴ هزارم از ما کمتر هست! من گفتم اوضاع ایران شبیه آلمان هست که حرف درستی هم هست چون ۱.۶ با ۱.۵۹۶ فرق معنی‌داری نداره. وقتی سوئد و دانمارک و فرانسه وضعیتشون از ایران بهتر هست باید نشست گریه کرد

زمان جنگ ایران و عراق نرخ باروری ایران به دلیل فرهنگ اون دوره بالا بود و با سپری شدن زمان نرخ باروری در ایران و منطقه پایین اومده، بالا بودن نرخ به خاطر جنگ نبوده و حتی در سالهای پایانی دهه ۸۰ میلادی و شروع دهه ۹۰ میلادی نرخ پایین‌تر از زمان پیش از انقلاب بوده. زمان شاه نرخ باروری ایران بالای ۵ بود و حتی یک دوره‌ای نزدیک ۷ بود. که یک بار دیگه اثبات می‌کنه که شریعت اسلام هیچ ربطی به نرخ باروری نداره

مثال ترکیه دقیقاً اثبات می‌کنه که سکولار بودن هیچ ربطی به کاهش نرخ باروری نداره که شما اینطوری داشتی القاء می‌کردی. مثال سوریه، لبنان، عراق و بقیه هم همینطور. مثال ایران زمان شاه هم همینطور

در مورد قد افراد و ضریب هوشی، اگه به علم ژنتیک اعتقاد داشته باشی می‌دونی که بخش زیادی از قد افراد و ضریب هوشی ارثی هست. یک فرد ورزشکار هم باید تمرین بکنه، هم باید تغذیه مناسب داشته باشه و هم از همه مهمتر ژنتیک مناسب برای حرفه‌اش داشته باشه. وقتی خزانه ژنتیکی از چنین افرادی خالی بشه قطعاً تو نسل‌های بعد تاثیرگذار هست. تو همین چند سال گذشته خیلی از ورزشکارهای تیم‌های ملی ما مهاجرت کردن. مهم نیست که اون ور به سرنوشت خوبی دچار بشن یا نه، مهم این هست که مهاجرت افراد نخبه آسیب به خزانه ژنتیکی ما هست. بعد واقعاً جدی می‌گی که ورزشکارها قد بلند نیستند؟ اکثر ورزشکارها بالای ۱۸۰ سانت هستند. همون کیمیا علیزاده که تازه دختر هم هست ۱۸۶ سانت هست

بعد میون اون همه چیز چسبیدی به قد فقط؟ می‌دونی خروج این همه ثروت و کارآفرین از اقتصاد ایران یعنی چی؟ می‌دونی ایرانی‌های پولداری که از ایران به آمریکای شمالی یا کشورهایی مثل دوبی و اینها مهاجرت کردن چند تریلیون دلار ثروت دارن؟ حدوداً ۲ تریلیون دلار ثروت ایرانی‌های خارج از ایران هست. سرانه‌اش برای جمعیت ایران می‌شه حدود نفری ۲۵ هزار دلار. ۹۹٪ این افراد حتی حاضر نیستند ۱ دلار تو کشورشون سرمایه‌گذاری کنند به خاطر شرایطی که ایجاد کردین. یه نگاه به هیأت علمی‌های دانشگاه‌های آمریکای شمالی و اروپای غربی نشون می‌ده چقدر دانشمند رو از دست دادیم

در مورد اینکه آیا ایران فرار مغزها داره یا نه، یک نگاه خیلی کلی به کشورهای آمریکای شمالی که پذیرای میلیون‌ها ایرانی تحصیل کرده هستند پاسخ همه چیز رو می‌ده. کانادا و آمریکا روی هم دیگه بالای ۱.۵ میلیون مهاجر ایرانی دارن که خیلی هاشون فوق لیسانس به بالا هستند با نمرات خوب دانشگاهی از دانشگاه‌های برتر کشور. حتی آمارهایی که در سالهای مختلف توسط ارگان‌های دولتی مانند وزارت علوم، معاونت پژوهشی ریاست جمهوری و دیگران داده شده نشون می‌ده که بخش قابل توجهی از افرادی که از ایران مهاجرت کردن دارای مدارک بالای دانشگاهی از بهترین دانشگاه‌های ایران بودن

ایران مقصد مهاجرت نیست؟ ۴ میلیون افغان و پاکستانی و عراقی رو داریم میزبانی می‌کنیم. کم هست؟‌ ایران مقصد مهاجرت آدم حسابی‌ها نیست، مقصد مهاجرت مهاجرین بدبخت و جنگ زده هست فقط. دوباره برات تکرار می‌کنم برادر عزیز. داریم یک سری از افراد شایسته رو می‌فرستیم خارج از کشور که دیگه بر نمی‌گردن، جاش دلمون خوش هست به چهارتا مهاجر افغان که از بدشانسی روزگار مجبور به مهاجرت شدن و اکثرشون بر عکس این که می‌گی با فرهنگ ما اصلاً سازگار نیستند. نیمی از افغانستان شبیه ما هستند، نیم دیگه‌اش هیچ شباهتی به ما ندارن و حتی از ما بدشون هم میاد. یک نگاه به روابط ما با افغانستان در طول تاریخ بکنی بد نیست

و در پایان بگم که روز به روز در جنگ با پروپاگاندای صهیونیستی بیشتر داریم شکست می‌خوریم. پروپاگاندای صهیونیستی رو با پافشاری رو اندیشه‌های تک بعدی خرافی نمی‌شه خنثی کرد. هر چقدر در این ۴۲ سال تونستین خنثی کنید، در آینده هم می‌تونید. دهه به دهه نسل ایران ضد اسلام‌تر شده!‌ منتهی مشکل اینجاست که زنگ خطر بحران دموگرافی ۱۰ سال هست که به صدا در اومده و سالهای آخری هست که فرصت جبران داریم وگرنه تا حداکثر یک دهه دیگه پنجره جمعیتی بسته می‌شه. تا شما بخوای پروپاگاندا رو خنثی کنی کار از کار گذشته. همون امید دانا که سنگش رو به سینه می‌زنی دلیل موفقیت‌اش فاصله گرفتن از تفکرات خرافی شما هست وگرنه یک پنجم مخاطبین‌اش رو هم نداشت​
 

SalarHaqq

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با عرض شرمندگی، دوباره یه طومار حرف‌هایی نوشتی که بخش زیادیش رو خودت هم می‌دونی که غیرصادقانه هستند
I entirely based myself upon verifiable facts, therefore I don't see what was dishonest about my demonstration.


نرخ باروری ترکیه تو سال ۲۰۲۰ دقیقاً ۲.۰۴۶ بوده. با اعشارش گفتم چون مثل اینکه چند هزارم برات خیلی مهم هست
In 2019, it amounted to 1.88. Here is proof from a Turkish source: https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/turkey-s-fertility-rate-outpaces-27-eu-member-states-45274 . So I did not make this up. The figure you cited for 2020 also appears to be inferior to 2.1. And, one might add, the 4 million recently arrived Syrians, a population with very high birthrates, certainly contribute to an increase.

The bottom line is that Turkey, for quite some time, has been failing to achieve replacement level fertility rates. Like it or not, Turkey is faced with a demographic ageing issue. If you were / are unaware of this, I'd invite you to do some additional research. It's being publicly discussed by journalists and scholars for quite a few years now.

Here just a hanfdul of sources (mostly Turkish, both pro-Islamist and pro-secularist):

Aging population continues to rise in once-young Turkey

Turkey's population is ageing and the fertility rate is falling — report

Reeling from COVID-19 slump, Turkey's demographic challenges loom large

Turkey’s fertility rates remain far below replacement levels

Turkey sees sharp drop in fertility rate to near Swedish level

Turkey's waning fertility threatens Erdoğan's vision of strength

The demographic transformation of Turkey

Turkey faces aging population as fertility rate declines
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-faces-aging-population-as-fertility-rate-declines---99203

Frankly, there's no way one could deny or relativize the established factual reality pertaining to secular Turkey's demographic crisis.


. برگشتی می‌گی آلمان اوضاعش بهتر از ما نیست چون نرخش ۴ هزارم از ما کمتر هست! من گفتم اوضاع ایران شبیه آلمان هست که حرف درستی هم هست چون ۱.۶ با ۱.۵۹۶ فرق معنی‌داری نداره. وقتی سوئد و دانمارک و فرانسه وضعیتشون از ایران بهتر هست باید نشست گریه کرد
Not owing to their native populations' habits, but due to significant immigration from developing countries with strong fertility rates. Thanks to Somalis, Iraqis, Kurdish Turks and Kurdish Iraqis, Syrians, Algerians, Moroccans, etc. Natives of Europe have far lower fertility rates than the immigrants, due the consequences of modernity as well as liberal and secularist rule since generations.

Influx of immigrants that incidentally is undermining those western European states' original national character and is preparing them for dissolution into the messianist "world government" which globalist and zionist oligarchs are aiming for.

Besides, this again does not prove the existence of a correlation between theocratic system of governance and low birthrates. Given that comparable states with a secular system of governance, such as Turkey, are experiencing demographic crisis too. The latter observation rests on plain, simple logic, and shouldn't be very hard to admit. I would recommend not to systematically relate any of Iran's shortcomings to what you may subjectively dislike about the IR (namely its religious dimension), even if there's no causal justification for resorting to such inferences.


زمان جنگ ایران و عراق نرخ باروری ایران به دلیل فرهنگ اون دوره بالا بود و با سپری شدن زمان نرخ باروری در ایران و منطقه پایین اومده، بالا بودن نرخ به خاطر جنگ نبوده و حتی در سالهای پایانی دهه ۸۰ میلادی و شروع دهه ۹۰ میلادی نرخ پایین‌تر از زمان پیش از انقلاب بوده. زمان شاه نرخ باروری ایران بالای ۵ بود و حتی یک دوره‌ای نزدیک ۷ بود.
Well, you had thought it necessary to specify that Syria is a war-torn country, as if to suggest that therefore Syria ought to have a lower fertility rate. I only set straight the fact that being at war does not necessarily lead to low birthrates, that's all. I did not make the opposite claim that war always increases fertility rates.

As for the comparison with the shah regime:

wd.jpg


From 1950 to 1979, i.e. under most of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's rule, Iran's average annual population growth was visibly slower than during the 1980's.

Then you mention cultural changes. Here are the two reasons for the evolution of Iranian culture in this regard:

1) Modernization and urbanization of society, plus strongly accelerated human development under the Islamic Republic.

2) Propaganda, psy-ops, social engineering by hostile foreign entities, and specifically the promotion of liberal norms in Iranian society.


که یک بار دیگه اثبات می‌کنه که شریعت اسلام هیچ ربطی به نرخ باروری نداره
Which is to say that abolition of sharia law is not going to lead to an increase of fertility rates in Iran (exactly my point), since you just stated the two are unrelated to each other.


مثال ترکیه دقیقاً اثبات می‌کنه که سکولار بودن هیچ ربطی به کاهش نرخ باروری نداره که شما اینطوری داشتی القاء می‌کردی. مثال سوریه، لبنان، عراق و بقیه هم همینطور. مثال ایران زمان شاه هم همینطور
Be that as it may, Turkey's case also happens to show that implementing secularism will not solve a demographic crisis.


در مورد قد افراد و ضریب هوشی، اگه به علم ژنتیک اعتقاد داشته باشی می‌دونی که بخش زیادی از قد افراد و ضریب هوشی ارثی هست. یک فرد ورزشکار هم باید تمرین بکنه، هم باید تغذیه مناسب داشته باشه و هم از همه مهمتر ژنتیک مناسب برای حرفه‌اش داشته باشه. وقتی خزانه ژنتیکی از چنین افرادی خالی بشه قطعاً تو نسل‌های بعد تاثیرگذار هست. تو همین چند سال گذشته خیلی از ورزشکارهای تیم‌های ملی ما مهاجرت کردن
بعد واقعاً جدی می‌گی که ورزشکارها قد بلند نیستند؟ اکثر ورزشکارها بالای ۱۸۰ سانت هستند. همون کیمیا علیزاده که تازه دختر هم هست ۱۸۶ سانت هست
1) I merely posted a reminder that athletes aren't necessarily tall. Various sports or roles / positions within certain sports in effect cater to people of shorter than average stature.

2) Just because anti-Iran media systematically make mountains out of moles, it doesn't mean we are dealing with considerable proportions. Professional athletes who emigrate aren't that many overall. No amount of such reports can replace a proper statistical survey anyway.

3) Even if the numbers of emigrating athletes were high, it'd be far out to consider that this will have a significant impact on the average height of a population of some 83 million...


می‌دونی خروج این همه ثروت و کارآفرین از اقتصاد ایران یعنی چی؟ می‌دونی ایرانی‌های پولداری که از ایران به آمریکای شمالی یا کشورهایی مثل دوبی و اینها مهاجرت کردن چند تریلیون دلار ثروت دارن؟ حدوداً ۲ تریلیون دلار ثروت ایرانی‌های خارج از ایران هست. سرانه‌اش برای جمعیت ایران می‌شه حدود نفری ۲۵ هزار دلار. ۹۹٪ این افراد حتی حاضر نیستند ۱ دلار تو کشورشون سرمایه‌گذاری کنند به خاطر شرایطی که ایجاد کردین.
This is simply due to the biggest propaganda and psy-ops campaign ever conducted against a nation, I am referring to several decades of massive and relentless western-zionist efforts to blacken the image of the Islamic Republic. To imagine that this has no influence on the minds of those westernized, gharb-parast individuals would be naive.

Conditions in Iran aren't worse than elsewhere, and this includes developed societies, let alone developing ones.


در مورد اینکه آیا ایران فرار مغزها داره یا نه، یک نگاه خیلی کلی به کشورهای آمریکای شمالی که پذیرای میلیون‌ها ایرانی تحصیل کرده هستند پاسخ همه چیز رو می‌ده
There are not millions of Iranians in the two countries which constitute North America. More like between 800.000 and 1.2 million, which is not such an impressive figure or proportion compared to many other nationalities (such as Indians, Vietnamese, Filipinos, Mexicans, Nicaraguans, Salvadorians, Algerians (in Canada), Lebanese, and even Japanese, south Koreans, Poles, Italians, Germans, French, British, and so on and so forth).

I have been studying the topic in utmost detail for many years, and absolutely know what I'm talking about. The exaggerated figures often thrown around by Iranians of all stripes (and relayed by foreign anti-Iran media, but never by the actual statistical bureaus of those same hostile foreign entities), are simply baseless, delusional and completely undocumented.

Official US surveys put the number of residents of Iranian extraction at a few hundred thousands only. In Canada, they are circa 210.000 to 230.000.

The total number of Iranians residing outside the country - whether still holders of Iranian citizenship, or naturalized into a foreign citizenship, or born abroad from two Iranian parents, does not exceed 3 million. In fact, I would put the figure closer to 2.5 million, and am able to prove my point based on official national statistics of host countries. That is by no means a particularly elevated percentage of the total population. Many nations, including highly wealthy and developed ones, beat Iran hands down in this regard.


کانادا و آمریکا روی هم دیگه بالای ۱.۵ میلیون مهاجر ایرانی دارن که خیلی هاشون فوق لیسانس به بالا هستند با نمرات خوب دانشگاهی از دانشگاه‌های برتر کشور. حتی آمارهایی که در سالهای مختلف توسط ارگان‌های دولتی مانند وزارت علوم، معاونت پژوهشی ریاست جمهوری و دیگران داده شده نشون می‌ده که بخش قابل توجهی از افرادی که از ایران مهاجرت کردن دارای مدارک بالای دانشگاهی از بهترین دانشگاه‌های ایران بودن
So which is it, millions as you stated one sentence earlier, or 1.5 million?

But either way, I shall name only one other group of immigrants to the USA for comparison, namely south Koreans. They number 1.7 million in the US alone, i.e. clearly more than Iranians. This is while Iran's mainland population is of 83 million, versus south Korea's 51.5 million. And, average education levels of south Koreans residing in the US are elevated as well.

That said, refer to the point made several times: nefarious American soft power is of gigantic consequences over nations. By all objective and well-researched accounts, the US is slowly but surely crumbling, be it economically, infrastructurally, socially, culturally (not that there's ever been a large amount of things worthy of being called "culture" in America). But its image in the minds of the gullible, achieved by Hollywoodian brainwashing and mental conditioning through incessant media bombardment, is still holding out to a large degree. The perception of America for what it truly is, is bound to replace this distorted, manufactured image, however. Let's give it some more time, it is certain to occur though.


ایران مقصد مهاجرت نیست؟ ۴ میلیون افغان و پاکستانی و عراقی رو داریم میزبانی می‌کنیم. کم هست؟‌
There are only some 15.000 Pakistanis residing in Iran. Not too many Iraqis either (a not inconsiderable part of them headed back home after 2003). That only leaves the nearly 4 million Afghan immigrants as a truly large group (this figure includes both legal and illegal residents).

I will rephrase my statement then: Iran is no destination for immigration in the western sense, namely mass immigration from a large variety of distant, cultrally alien spots. Given that Afghans are in fact culturally speaking Iranians, one may even almost consider them as natives.


ایران مقصد مهاجرت آدم حسابی‌ها نیست، مقصد مهاجرت مهاجرین بدبخت و جنگ زده هست فقط.
That's the case of every developing nation (even the expat colonies of westerners in PGCC countries consist of people who stay there for some years only, before heading back home or elsewhere). And to expect anything else from a developing nation (and one keen on preserving its independence and sovereignty at that) is rather strange.

Now once again, thank God Iran is not beset with the sort of issues that stem from the type of mass immigration witnessed in western Europe.


بر عکس این که می‌گی با فرهنگ ما اصلاً سازگار نیستند. نیمی از افغانستان شبیه ما هستند، نیم دیگه‌اش هیچ شباهتی به ما ندارن و
Yes but those residing in Iran are mostly either Hazara and Shia Muslim or Sunni Tajik Farsi-speakers, many from Herat province, which is arguably one of the closest to Iran from the cultural point of view (and among the last provinces of Afghanistan to have been severed from Iran by the British during the 19th century).


حتی از ما بدشون هم میاد. یک نگاه به روابط ما با افغانستان در طول تاریخ بکنی بد نیست
Due to the meddling of hostile imperialist powers (both historically and nowadays), and also some domestic factors. These should be addressed and reversed though, not taken as some sort of a fatality.


و در پایان بگم که روز به روز در جنگ با پروپاگاندای صهیونیستی بیشتر داریم شکست می‌خوریم. پروپاگاندای صهیونیستی رو با پافشاری رو اندیشه‌های تک بعدی خرافی نمی‌شه خنثی کرد. هر چقدر در این ۴۲ سال تونستین خنثی کنید، در آینده هم می‌تونید. دهه به دهه نسل ایران ضد اسلام‌تر شده!‌ منتهی مشکل اینجاست که زنگ خطر بحران دموگرافی ۱۰ سال هست که به صدا در اومده و سالهای آخری هست که فرصت جبران داریم وگرنه تا حداکثر یک دهه دیگه پنجره جمعیتی بسته می‌شه. تا شما بخوای پروپاگاندا رو خنثی کنی کار از کار گذشته. همون امید دانا که سنگش رو به سینه می‌زنی دلیل موفقیت‌اش فاصله گرفتن از تفکرات خرافی شما هست وگرنه یک پنجم مخاطبین‌اش رو هم نداشت
Those aren't superstitious ideas. Religion isn't about superstition. That said, in the information war, the IR can and is actually improving its communication aimed at less religious or non-religious people. In fact I would say that over the past three decades, its position has rarely been as advantageous and promising in this regard. We are witnessing a progressive albeit slow reversal of fortunes when it comes to the soft war.

But this is actually one of the most sophisticated arenas of conflict. And, it is arguably less conducive to unconventional, asymmetric resistance than the hard war theater. Here quantity and brute number / volume of assets and means actually matter more (refer back to Joseph Goebbels's famous mantra relative to the sheer repetition of a lie).

Another novel area Islamic Iran might possibly need to venture into is that of social engineering.

Now as concerns demography in particular, like I mentioned earlier, it is a ticking time bomb indeed, one of the most serious yet less heard of existential threats to Iran. And yes, there's not much time left to reverse the trend. Yet, even outside of information campaigns and social engineering, there's a series of relatively simple, classic incentivizing legal instruments which would be helpful, and which I mentioned above: subsidies, tax cuts and other advantages for families with more than two children, and so on. Iran just needs to have the proper administration interested in carrying out these policies. A revolutionary administration is most likely to go ahead with it.

So there's a duty for every patriotic Iranian to go and vote coming June for an authentically revolutionary candidate (read: not a reformist, not a moderate, not a so-called pragmatic conservative).
 
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Hack-Hook

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خیلی هاشون از من و شما پولدارترن

البته ترس از طلاق و مهریه و نبود کیس مناسب و سخت پسند بودن و علاقه به پوووز زنی در امر ازدواج هم جزو سختی های ازدواجه
well the wealthy ones are not that much after all they are 1% my problem is the hardship and doubts that working class face for marriage . the problem the married ones face if the y have children
 

Hack-Hook

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How do get that mark? I always use aa and the words sometimes look funky when typing finglish.
there is a small firefox addons called Abctajpu that allow you insert any character in any language you like
Do we have a Scottish member? I want to evaluate my favorite candidates!

its a documented and well known fact that Iran even meddle in solar activities
 

925boy

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TheImmortal

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@Arian another example of the rights of women in near by Pakistan.

Iran compared to India and Pakistan seems decades ahead in terms of progressiveness for women’s rights. Yet Iran is under sanctions for “human rights” while the other two countries are not.
 

makranman

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باید فکر قوی و پر جرات کرد وگرنه منفی هم میشیم

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خیلی خطرناکه وضعیت​
با این توصیفات دیگه آسان کردن ازدواج موثر نیست. ازدواج چیزی نیست که یک شبه آسان بشه. از طرف دیگه اسلام دست ها رو با زنجیر فولادی بسته.
 

aryobarzan

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US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)

Iran will soon sign the contract to build a new terminal at the Imam Khomeini Airport (IKA) in Tehran to handle 25 million passengers a year, an official says.
The new terminal, T2, is part of an expansion plan which the French abandoned in 2017 in anticipation of new US sanctions on Iran, canceling a $2.8 billion agreement.
The project is now to be awarded to a domestic investor, IKA Managing Director Mohammad Mehdi Karbalaei announced Tuesday.

The new terminal will be built on 410,000 square meters of land and will include a new runway, parking lots and a flight control tower, Karbalaei said.
The airport, 30 kilometers southwest of Tehran, is currently operating at an annual handling capacity of 10 million passengers mainly through its first terminal, T1. Last June, Iran opened Salam Terminal dedicated to pilgrims, but it is not part of IKA’s master expansion plan.
Officials say the ultimate plan is to also build a third terminal, T3, to raise the capacity to 90 million passengers a year.
 

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