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Iranian Chill Thread

Dariush the Great

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Fair enough, I respect this position (and sentimentally I want to take this perspective as my own but I can't for now). The issue I have is two-fold, one is rhetoric and the other is humility.

I can reference the literal hundreds (not even exaggerating here) strikes on Iranian assets all over Syria and some in Iraq that lends credence to the bleak reality in which Iran is facing a military power (Israel) that is so capable and operates so freely that it's almost difficult in determining whether Iran is 'winning' against it, or losing. I guess some of my frustration is due in part to Iran's own reticence in not disclosing its material losses abroad (of which we can only speculate to the actual extent of the damage). But the evidence from so many...and I mean so many satellite pictures shows that Israel is destroying Iranian/Iranian related assets left, right and center: so, naturally for me it's very hard to see how one can gleam anything positive from this where pure military related matters are concerned.

Moreover, we're dealing with an increasingly aggressive Israeli state that has pushed Iran farther and farther than ever before in the past and has come to realize (based on Iran's inaction) that they can get away with a lot. Also, due directly to Trump's Zionist-orientated regime, Israel enjoys a new level of influence in America that they've never really had before. We already know that Americans are more than willing to get down on their worthless knees and suck from the Jewish-tit of Israel for cash and hollow dreams of "god, Jesus, the holy land and democracy" but these past ~5 years have rung in a completely new degree of groveling. So exactly how is Iran going to deal with Israel when it (Iran) chooses to do to nothing in favor of 'waiting' or "you better not attack us, or we will raise Haifa and Tel-Aviv". It's just too much, I can no longer simply accept that Iran is biding its time...waiting for the opportune moment to strike back. There is literally no guarantee Iran's future "strike back" will help its current loss of deterrence. In-fact, (god help me...) Iran needs to do something SOONER rather than later. Waiting will only make the issue worse....

look.....heart on my sleeve....this all comes off as a showboating, half-cocked lie that isn't backed up by anything that can help substantiate the claims Iran constantly espouses (about its strength, not technical ability).......This is where I will inevitably get blocked or ignored by some Iranian users it is something that needs to be actively talked about. Those missiles look really good for PR videos, IRGC never has a shortage of those....yet outside of a few instances of them being used in recent memory (ISIS, KURD militants, AYN-AL ASSAD). Iran doesn't seem to want to use them when it really matters like after the death of Fakhrizadeh... Clearly we are not being told the whole story about Iran's power and it shows man...it shows.

Anyways....on a side note; https://www.israelhayom.com/2021/01/14/idf-crafting-new-options-to-counter-iranian-threat/

Iran really needs to prepare for the worst, Biden is not to be trusted at all. The guy is a pretty staunch Zionist-lackey and he is inheriting quite the economic leverage over Iran.

All that i say comes from a place of true concern for Iran, Iranians and the future of our people in the region and world. I no longer know what to think anymore when It comes to Iran, they've put me down (and so many others) time and time again with little to show for it.....If I'm wrong, if I'm right, whatever.

We have some REAL PROBLEMS here that need to be discussed.....

Much respect to you and everyone on the forum, please forgive me overly cynical take on the issue, I'm frustrated and tired...
This is not even the real problem BG jan. The bigger problem is the people covering it up. That is a problem tenfold more problematic than the cucking of IRGC by Israel and it should be challenged as much as possible. Even in this thread some fanboys are throwing their whole body on the dirt and trying to cover it up by bringing excuses that the distance is too long, the casualties are not Iranian or whatever nonsense reason they bring. This is a threat bigger than the incompetence of IRGC regarding Israel itself.. incompetence can be fixed with competent powerful people at the helm.. but lies and deception are much more difficult to confront.

Anyway, never has there been a army in entire human history that just stood still and let the enemy come and slap them on their head. There has been even no retaliation attempt by the so called resistance against Israel during the past 10 years. What IRGC is showing to all of us is just extremely strange, something we can not fathom. Shouting death to Israel but allowing them to come and slap you left and right without any response whatsoever. Mind boggling.
 

Aspen

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I wonder how much leverage Biden administration actually thinks it has, because US has less than they think. They should not have any illusions thinking they can ask for more demands, because both hardliners are nukes are waiting for Biden to fall into that trap. Let's see if he takes the bait. William Burns got appointed by Biden and he was one of the top guys who negotiated JCPOA so that seems to be a good sign that they have some idea what they are doing.
 

mohammad45

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This is not even the real problem BG jan. The bigger problem is the people covering it up. That is a problem tenfold more problematic than the cucking of IRGC by Israel and it should be challenged as much as possible. Even in this thread some fanboys are throwing their whole body on the dirt and trying to cover it up by bringing excuses that the distance is too long, the casualties are not Iranian or whatever nonsense reason they bring. This is a threat bigger than the incompetence of IRGC regarding Israel itself.. incompetence can be fixed with competent powerful people at the helm.. but lies and deception are much more difficult to confront.

Anyway, never has there been a army in entire human history that just stood still and let the enemy come and slap them on their head. There has been even no retaliation attempt by the so called resistance against Israel during the past 10 years. What IRGC is showing to all of us is just extremely strange, something we can not fathom. Shouting death to Israel but allowing them to come and slap you left and right without any response whatsoever. Mind boggling.
گر صبر کنی ز غوره حلوا سازی، عزیزم.
😁
I know its too hard to tolerate it, even if its propaganda IRGC has to put an end to it. But not before Trump/Rouhani leaving the office. Just a bit more patience brother.
 

PeeD

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One time Isteel attacked Iranians and killed them. As a result Fateh-110 flew over the Golan into Israel.

Another time when it happens a Urgan launched all it's rockets into Israel.

They know that Iranian lives is the limit, otherwise they could easily kill Iranians every day there.

Deterrence.
 

Shawnee

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One time Isteel attacked Iranians and killed them. As a result Fateh-110 flew over the Golan into Israel.

Another time when it happens a Urgan launched all it's rockets into Israel.

They know that Iranian lives is the limit, otherwise they could easily kill Iranians every day there.

Deterrence.
Completely agreed.

We have seen what has happened and is still going on over one single Hezbollah soldier.

50 killed soldiers have families. You cannot hide it.

panjaahtaa sarbaaz az zire botte ke dar nayumadan.
 

Dariush the Great

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One time Isteel attacked Iranians and killed them. As a result Fateh-110 flew over the Golan into Israel.

Another time when it happens a Urgan launched all it's rockets into Israel.

They know that Iranian lives is the limit, otherwise they could easily kill Iranians every day there.

Deterrence.
And this insignificant attack you are talking about... did it kill a single Israeli soldier ? Did it do any damage to Israeli assets at all ? If yes, please provide reliable sources,pictures etc otherwise it will be again ''Ladies and gentleman, here is a classic version of deception and gondegoozi.''

Deterrence, yea right lol. We saw the deterrence.
 

thetutle

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@Dariush the Great @Shawnee

I have the utmost respect for so many of our members here on PDF given all the shit we've been through but let's try and remain somewhat objective here guys.

Like I said so in the past, and I only say so for our own mental health and self-esteem. We must come to terms with the possible reality that what Iran has said (IRGC generals specifically) might have been an over-exaggeration of certain capabilities especially when it comes to actually carrying out threats against Israel and America where it matters most. Real world evidence would point, resolutely might I add, that Israel has presented an over-match against Iran in the region and they're not even going full-tilt. Granted, Iran hasn't even openly responded yet to any Israeli aggressions, but the point still stands. We are dealing with the foremost air-power in the region backed up by thousands of American satellites providing constant up-to-date intel/reconnaissance on anything even remotely related to Iran in the region. The battle was never going to be easy, but this current conversation was going to be unavoidable. We must reconcile with ourselves at least to some degree, the key here is introspection.

At some point Iran will need to respond against Israel come hell or high-water, and if that day truly doesn't come then Iran's military is dead to me (I won't waste my time reading a new article about some drone or missile or radar when I know the people operating aren't all that professional or worth their weight in salt) . This current paradigm of Israel literally conducting 100s or raids a year against the same sites, over and over and over again must be stopped. If they want a war, then by god give em' one and count heads later. How much more humiliation, ridicule, embarrassment, incompetence, assassinations, sabotage, strikes on Iranian assets etc., can Iranians physically take before responding? Are Iranians THAT desperate for sanctions relief that they'll outright sell their dignity and humility for some more food and money? On this point, I fully blame the government and leaders for not following-through on their grandiose claims. Idk just how much "abarroo" Iran has lost but if it had a tangible amount, it would immense....

Now I will freely admit that I'm not the smartest person on PDF, I'm not the most liked, nor do my posts really carry much weight and I do feel like I rant a lot and this puts a lot of people off (sorry, I only mean the best) but what has transpired these past 6-7 years has amounted to nothing other than a total humiliation show for Iran in certain key areas. We have to be real with ourselves about what can expect coming out of Iran, these leaders don't seem nearly as capable or professional (military specifically) as they portray themselves to be.....


I think we as members need a heart-to-heart, we need to hear each other out and come to terms with this sad reality. Be respectful, kind and open to all perspectives since I know we all have the best interests in mind when it comes to Iran.


If patience is truly key here, then okay.... I'll fully concede on that front. If Iran really does want to just "wait it out" (whatever that means in this context). Then so be it..
It seems obvious to me, as it does to you that Iran is unable to retaliate against any attack in a meaning full effective way. There is no shame in that. Israel is armed and funded but he US totally. Retaliating against US is just fantasy in any event. I mean Iran can retaliate, but it will not like the consequences. They will be disproportionate. and they know it. There is only so much damage you can do with Iranian missiles and the consequences would be just total devastation of infrastructure that will send the people into hunger and chaos.

Iran is not the only one who can not retaliate. Syria cant retaliate watever anyone does to it. Be it turkey or Israel.

Saudi can't retaliate against Iran and everyone knows it. Iran destroyed Saudi oil facilities, their lifeblood, and Saudi could just sit there and take it. Saudis know that if they launch some missiles against Iran, it is all over for Saudi, their economy and their royal family. So they just took it.

So thats what Iran is doing, just taking the pain. But what they are not doing is retreating. Iran figures they can send hundreds and thousands of soldiers and advisors and they can lose 5 or 10 or 50 thousand and it makes no difference to a population of 85 million people who know about sacrifice. Iran lost 1 million people in the 1980's war and it only had a population of 35 million then.

So for iran, the policy to arm syria, and hezb, and entrench militias next to israel is worth the loss of hundreds and even tens of thousands of soldiers. Because the final outcome will be ability to strike israel at will without provoking a direct strike on iran.

So its not a bad strategy, but its humiliating in the short run. But you cant look at the world in the short run. All these promises to punish israel reminds me of the Palestinian promises and its very undignified, but its done for the domestic Iranian audience. Because those people dont know any better. they are not strategists, they are market workers, watermelon salesmen, whatever. The strategists know that the long game is worth the sacrifice. You can not win a conflict without sacrifice.

The only way to avoid humiliation is to develop nukes. That would even out the balance of power and Israeli and American overwhelming firepower would become worthless overnight. The mathematical equation then would be, if you bomb an iranian position anywhere, we send a rocket to your city. if you attack an iranian city we attack your cities until we run out of rockets. If you keep attacking us we use tactical nukes. if you tactical nuke us we use large nukes. Then its a nuclear exchange. Iran destroys Israel, death rate 8 million. Israel destroys Iran, death rate 40 million. bringing iran's population to what to was 30 years ago.

Iran destroyed, but remains a nuclear power. Israel becomes a failed project. You think Israel will allow that scenario to unfold? Heck no! Israel will never hit an Iranian position ever. Just as south Korea will never hit a north korean position. They have too much to lose. This is simple logic and game theory. Thats why they are so upset that Iran might get nukes. It would deprive the west and israel of total impunity which they currently enjoy with iran.
 

Dariush the Great

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It seems obvious to me, as it does to you that Iran is unable to retaliate against any attack in a meaning full effective way. There is no shame in that. Israel is armed and funded but he US totally. Retaliating against US is just fantasy in any event. I mean Iran can retaliate, but it will not like the consequences. They will be disproportionate. and they know it. There is only so much damage you can do with Iranian missiles and the consequences would be just total devastation of infrastructure that will send the people into hunger and chaos.

Iran is not the only one who can not retaliate. Syria cant retaliate watever anyone does to it. Be it turkey or Israel.

Saudi can't retaliate against Iran and everyone knows it. Iran destroyed Saudi oil facilities, their lifeblood, and Saudi could just sit there and take it. Saudis know that if they launch some missiles against Iran, it is all over for Saudi, their economy and their royal family. So they just took it.

So thats what Iran is doing, just taking the pain. But what they are not doing is retreating. Iran figures they can send hundreds and thousands of soldiers and advisors and they can lose 5 or 10 or 50 thousand and it makes no difference to a population of 85 million people who know about sacrifice. Iran lost 1 million people in the 1980's war and it only had a population of 35 million then.

So for iran, the policy to arm syria, and hezb, and entrench militias next to israel is worth the loss of hundreds and even tens of thousands of soldiers. Because the final outcome will be ability to strike israel at will without provoking a direct strike on iran.

So its not a bad strategy, but its humiliating in the short run. But you cant look at the world in the short run. All these promises to punish israel reminds me of the Palestinian promises and its very undignified, but its done for the domestic Iranian audience. Because those people dont know any better. they are not strategists, they are market workers, watermelon salesmen, whatever. The strategists know that the long game is worth the sacrifice. You can not win a conflict without sacrifice.

The only way to avoid humiliation is to develop nukes. That would even out the balance of power and Israeli and American overwhelming firepower would become worthless overnight. The mathematical equation then would be, if you bomb an iranian position anywhere, we send a rocket to your city. if you attack an iranian city we attack your cities until we run out of rockets. If you keep attacking us we use tactical nukes. if you tactical nuke us we use large nukes. Then its a nuclear exchange. Iran destroys Israel, death rate 8 million. Israel destroys Iran, death rate 40 million. bringing iran's population to what to was 30 years ago.

Iran destroyed, but remains a nuclear power. Israel becomes a failed project. You think Israel will allow that scenario to unfold? Heck no! Israel will never hit an Iranian position ever. Just as south Korea will never hit a north korean position. They have too much to lose. This is simple logic and game theory. Thats why they are so upset that Iran might get nukes. It would deprive the west and israel of total impunity which they currently enjoy with iran.
Like your posts.. very good read. But just one correction. Iran had between 200-500.000 casualty figure in the war against Iraq, not 1 million.

And for the rest, i agree with you. You tried to sum up the situation as best as possible but in my opinion it is futile. For example, the current supreme leader of Iran, his actions are almost bordering on treason. Which sane, patriotic, pious Iranian dislikes Iran having the nuclear deterrence? This has been discussed here many times so i won't make it a long post. There are people in Iran within security apparatus that want to develop nukes though but they are being stopped by some people... we can even conclude that the death of Fakhrizadeh is the result of never ending treason by some rather than enemy action.
 

thetutle

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Like your posts.. very good read. But just one correction. Iran had between 200-500.000 casualty figure in the war against Iraq, not 1 million.

And for the rest, i agree with you. You tried to sum up the situation as best as possible but in my opinion it is futile. For example, the current supreme leader of Iran, his actions are almost bordering on treason. Which sane, patriotic, pious Iranian dislikes Iran having the nuclear deterrence? This has been discussed here many times so i won't make it a long post. There are people in Iran within security apparatus that want to develop nukes though but they are being stopped by some people... we can even conclude that the death of Fakhrizadeh is the result of never ending treason by some rather than enemy action.
I probably agree that people in iran preventing a nuke are traitors or terribly incompetent, and if I was Iranian I'd overthrow them. Their motivations for preventing a nuke might be good intentioned. Its just that their calculations are off. Totally off.

They think that they can keep the economy going and prevent a confrontation by doing what they are doing now. They cant. And we are seeing that. From the west point of view having a country like iran so close to a nuke is too risky. The only way Iran will be allowed back into the economic system is if it gives up nuclear tech altogether or becomes a nuclear power. Simple because having a nuclear power destabilised is too risky.


The current policy is clearly a failure. I almost think some western countries want you to have nukes so that they don't have to do this any longer and so they can tell their zionist financiers "look it's too late, Iran already has the nukes, we cant play this confrontation game anymore, its too risky. You have nukes, they have nukes lets just call it even steven".
 

Sineva

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And this insignificant attack you are talking about... did it kill a single Israeli soldier ? Did it do any damage to Israeli assets at all ? If yes, please provide reliable sources,pictures etc otherwise it will be again ''Ladies and gentleman, here is a classic version of deception and gondegoozi.''

Deterrence, yea right lol. We saw the deterrence.
Yes,you did.Because if there was no deterrence then you wouldnt just have the war of pin pricks,which make no mistake IS what you have now,instead the israelis would not have hesitated to have shot down a few of those airliners/cargo planes that fly virtually everyday and maintain irans vital air bridge with syria to send a message,instead the israelis destroy for the most part syrian facilities all the while of course claiming that they`re targeting iran.
You all seem to have forgotten the reason why iran is in syria in the first place and that has little to nothing to do with fighting the israelis,its about ensuring the survival of the syrian state and that is what takes precedence.
The israelis for their part find even just the presence of iran in syria very frightening,if not terrifying,as it raises the very real fear of iranian encirclement,yet they dearent risk an outright war with iran over syria either.The israelis are acting out of fear.
Ultimately we will have to wait until after both the end of the chump and rouhani regimes to see if things quieten down or heat up,or whether the boot will be on the other [iranian] foot.
 

Dariush the Great

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Yes,you did.Because if there was no deterrence then you wouldnt just have the war of pin pricks,which make no mistake IS what you have now,instead the israelis would not have hesitated to have shot down a few of those airliners/cargo planes that fly virtually everyday and maintain irans vital air bridge with syria to send a message,instead the israelis destroy for the most part syrian facilities all the while of course claiming that they`re targeting iran.
You all seem to have forgotten the reason why iran is in syria in the first place and that has little to nothing to do with fighting the israelis,its about ensuring the survival of the syrian state and that is what takes precedence.
The israelis for their part find even just the presence of iran in syria very frightening,if not terrifying,as it raises the very real fear of iranian encirclement,yet they dearent risk an outright war with iran over syria either.The israelis are acting out of fear.
Ultimately we will have to wait until after both the end of the chump and rouhani regimes to see if things quieten down or heat up,or whether the boot will be on the other [iranian] foot.
Shooting down civilian and cargo airplanes is a very bad idea and the US,Israel can not afford to go in that direction. We are not talking about Syria here, we are talking about IRGC assets being bombed by Israel and lack of any retaliation.
 

Raghfarm007

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I was watching an interview recently with an Izraeli security person, and he was talking about Fakhrizadeh......he said that Iran has carried out attacks that the Izrahilli population doesn´t know about.......


I always find it really funny when I hear some braindead kids on the internet talk about secret military interactions between countries as if they have access to top secret info or if countries come and reveal all their secrets on international news.
 

thetutle

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Shooting down civilian and cargo airplanes is a very bad idea and the US,Israel can not afford to go in that direction. We are not talking about Syria here, we are talking about IRGC assets being bombed by Israel and lack of any retaliation.
His circular logic is undefeatable in his eyes. Don't even try. It goes like this.

1) Iranian forces are being bombed and destroyed with absolute impunity.

2) They are being destroyed with impunity because they are scared of Iran.

3) When people are scared of Iran it means Iran is powerful.

While technically true that they re doing this because they are scared of iran and dont like Iran there, its missing the bigger point. The bigger point is that they are pummelling Iranian forces with impunity.

You can run this argument to demonstrate that Japan in WW2 was powerful. They nuked them because they were scared of Japan. They woudldnt have nuked them if they were not scared. = Japan powerful. But misses the point. Japan was nuked and couldn't do anything about it.

Yo can run it with slavery in america. Black people were killed with impunity in America because americans were scared of them. They were scared of them so it means that the Black people were strong and powerful. Sure, but misses the point! Black people are being killed with impunity even today.
 

thetutle

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I was watching an interview recently with an Izraeli security person, and he was talking about Fakhrizadeh......he said that Iran has carried out attacks that the Izrahilli population doesn´t know about.......


I always find it really funny when I hear some braindead kids on the internet talk about secret military interactions between countries as if they have access to top secret info or if countries come and reveal all their secrets on international news.
This is also undefeatable logic. No rational person could even begin to dismantle this argument.

1) they attacked us openly and publicly. Everyone sees the carnage.

2) we promised to strike back at them

No strike back happens.

3) we have already struck back. But it's a secret. We can't just tell you about it.

4) Other side: "oh yeah, they hit us back real hard". No-one sees the carnage.

Rinse and repeat.
 

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