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Iran Starts 60% Uranium Enrichment

TheImmortal

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Lets get the facts straight: only 2-3 nations have centrifuges above ~10 SWU

IR-1 is a very complex 60's-70's design. Technically, mastering it, is not a joke at all.
Let’s get the fact straight: it’s due to concentration of enrichment within major groups not due to lack of ingenuity or some imagined insane difficulty that concentration of high SWU is in the hands of few. Another factor to consider is unpopularity of nuclear reactors not being embraced by many nations during the golden age of oil/coal. That will all change due to Paris Accords as world shifts to cleaner energy (hydrogen,fusion, electric, natural gas, wind, solar, nuclear)

Exhibit: A to illustrate my point above showing a few major groups holding bulk of worlds enrichment capacity (a cartel)
B14DB22E-9836-46B9-9D03-0D5608FED56A.jpeg


An Example: only 2 major true passenger airline mass producers exist (Boeing and Airbus), but that doesn’t mean others can’t. Only economies of scale/opportunity cost don’t make sense for a Bombardier to try to compete with a Boeing or for England to have its own version of Airbus. In the 21st century EU and US act as one country in many fields for all intents purposes.

And IR-1 being a “joke“ was hinted at the fact that Iran would never be able to have a true enrichment program that feeds its planned 10+ nuclear reactors using the centrifuge the West is restricting Iran to and not to your perceived notion as a slight to Iran’s capabilities thus far.

Look at the enrichment capacity of major nuclear nations:

6935716C-7CBC-41C9-84BD-29BEEA56074E.jpeg

F159FE04-183C-4E4A-A572-73B7018D559F.png


US alone has enrichment SWU capacity of 4.7 Million SWU

The Germany-Netherlands-UK “Troika” have nearly 15 million SWU enrichment capacity!

And that drawfs Russia at nearly 29Million SWU!

Iran is currently at meager 10-15K SWU capacity. Thus if Irna was restricted to just IR-1 it would need over 4.5 million IR-1 centrifuges to match US production....quite a impossible joke.

Yet with IR-9 that number drops to 90,000 centrifuges and with a IR-10 (100SWU) to a mere 50,000 centrifuges

Nonetheless back to exhibit B (pictures above) you can see why most nations don’t need to have mastered an large enrichment capacity when such massive behemoths around the world already doing the legwork for them. Again economies of scale/opportunity costs and not difficulty of centrifuge design.

Now you can see why the West forcing Iran to stick to IR-1 is truly a joke and the West’s concession for a token enrichment program

You cannot scale IR-1 into an industrial program nor IR-2M. They are more suited for nuclear weapons programs, not feeding a large civilian nuclear program that Iran wishes to one day have (especially with Paris Accords and climate change carbon caps coming) .

Source used: https://www.world-nuclear.org/infor...hment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment.aspx
 

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PeeD

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Let’s get the fact straight: it’s due to concentration of enrichment within major groups not due to lack of ingenuity or some imagined insane difficulty that concentration of high SWU is in the hands of few. Another factor to consider is unpopularity of nuclear reactors not being embraced by many nations during the golden age of oil/coal. That will all change due to Paris Accords as world shifts to cleaner energy (hydrogen,fusion, electric, natural gas, wind, solar, nuclear)

Exhibit: A to illustrate my point above showing a few major groups holding bulk of worlds enrichment capacity (a cartel)
View attachment 733928

An Example: only 2 major true passenger airline mass producers exist (Boeing and Airbus), but that doesn’t mean others can’t. Only economies of scale/opportunity cost don’t make sense for a Bombardier to try to compete with a Boeing or for England to have its own version of Airbus. In the 21st century EU and US act as one country in many fields for all intents purposes.

And IR-1 being a “joke“ was hinted at the fact that Iran would never be able to have a true enrichment program that feeds its planned 10+ nuclear reactors using the centrifuge the West is restricting Iran to and not to your perceived notion as a slight to Iran’s capabilities thus far.

Look at the enrichment capacity of major nuclear nations:

View attachment 733925
View attachment 733926

US alone has enrichment SWU capacity of 4.7 Million SWU

The Germany-Netherlands-UK “Troika” have nearly 15 million SWU enrichment capacity!

And that drawfs Russia at nearly 29Million SWU!

Iran is currently at meager 10-15K SWU capacity. Thus if Irna was restricted to just IR-1 it would need over 4.5 million IR-1 centrifuges to match US production....quite a impossible joke.

Yet with IR-9 that number drops to 90,000 centrifuges and with a IR-10 (100SWU) to a mere 50,000 centrifuges

Nonetheless back to exhibit B (pictures above) you can see why most nations don’t need to have mastered an large enrichment capacity when such massive behemoths around the world already doing the legwork for them. Again economies of scale/opportunity costs and not difficulty of centrifuge design.

Now you can see why the West forcing Iran to stick to IR-1 is truly a joke and the West’s concession for a token enrichment program

You cannot scale IR-1 into an industrial program nor IR-2M. They are more suited for nuclear weapons programs, not feeding a large civilian nuclear program that Iran wishes to one day have (especially with Paris Accords and climate change carbon caps coming) .

Source used: https://www.world-nuclear.org/infor...hment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment.aspx
IR-1 is not a production machine, so much is true.

It is a machine to keep the Natanz plant running and to gain experience and train personell.

It is however not a joke. These machines are in some ways more complex than IR-6.

Your Airbus and Boeing example is a good one.

There are two centrifuge powers: Russia and Urenco//EU
The U.S had big troubles with their behemoth centrifuge designs and as far as I know still has not managed to get it into industrial scale.
Japan tried it but basically gave up on it due to complexity.
Brazil still wants to do it, but is stuck at non-industrial 10-20 SWU level, with slow pace.
China uses subcritical Russian design and their own experimental ones might be at 10 SWU
India is still at experimental stage, also 10 SWU range
Pakistan built its P2 from outsourced parts and is still basically at the same level, because its goals are weapons.
North Korea wants to master P2 machines and create industrial scale production, but other than Pakistan, no country will deliver it maraging steel rotors.

Translate all of this to airplane manufacture.
No, this whole topic is not a joke at all.

Iran keeps IR-1 whole industrial experience and these are complex, fragile machines.
Once JCPOA limitations are gone, Iran can use that experience to bring in advanced, then matured machines to replace IR-1.

Note that most of those countries have access to international supply chain. Iran however is building every bit on its own.

So: Iran does not want Natanz and the 5000 IR-1 there for their SWU but for having a industrial scale plant running for future matured machines.

This is a exclusive field and must be viewed as such.
 

yavar

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my brother the i highly advise you don't quoting Ordinary Iranian people sources,

all I say you to wait week , just a week not more ,
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15 minutes ago

Iran has 'almost completed preparations' to enrich uranium to 60% -IAEA

 
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TheImmortal

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Once JCPOA limitations are gone, Iran can use that experience to bring in advanced, then matured machines to replace IR-1.

Note that most of those countries have access to international supply chain. Iran however is building every bit on its own.
Quite naive to assume the West will ever let JCPOA limitations ever “expire”. There is no point to JCPOA if in a decade Iran has 50,000 IR-9 centrifuges running and can break out to a nuclear bomb in a week. Thus the West will never let Iran have the same enrichment program as a Russia or EU.

neither EU/US/CHINA/Russia want Iran a nuclear power so they will continue forcing Iran to negotiate on JCPOA 1-2-3 for next 100 years until some change in world order happens were Iran either becomes a nuclear weapons power or US can no longer dictate to the world it’s wishes.

As for Iran not having international supply chain. I can assure you Iran still imports for nuclear program (example balancing table that caused centrifuge workshop explosion came from abroad) as well as parts and different items. It is correct Iran cannot freely import such things as other countries, but to say its 0% or completely domestic is a lie. For example, Iran right now does not have the industrial scale to mass produce IR-9 grade material for that centrifuge.
 

PeeD

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Quite naive to assume the West will ever let JCPOA limitations ever “expire”. There is no point to JCPOA if in a decade Iran has 50,000 IR-9 centrifuges running and can break out to a nuclear bomb in a week. Thus the West will never let Iran have the same enrichment program as a Russia or EU.

neither EU/US/CHINA/Russia want Iran a nuclear power so they will continue forcing Iran to negotiate on JCPOA 1-2-3 for next 100 years until some change in world order happens were Iran either becomes a nuclear weapons power or US can no longer dictate to the world it’s wishes.
They wish it yes but its a lost cause. Irans technology and sanction resistance will grow day by day. Its position will rise and there will be less and less requirement for a JCPOA-2.

JCPOA of 2015 was because it was Iran of 2015, but this is a fast developing country.

As for Iran not having international supply chain. I can assure you Iran still imports for nuclear program (example balancing table that caused centrifuge workshop explosion came from abroad) as well as parts and different items. It is correct Iran cannot freely import such things as other countries, but to say its 0% or completely domestic is a lie. For example, Iran right now does not have the industrial scale to mass produce IR-9 grade material for that centrifuge.
Yes that's special equipment. I'm talking about centrifuges and its parts, to allow mass production in order to create leverage.
 

TheImmortal

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They wish it yes but its a lost cause. Irans technology and sanction resistance will grow day by day. Its position will rise and there will be less and less requirement for a JCPOA-2.

JCPOA of 2015 was because it was Iran of 2015, but this is a fast developing country.



Yes that's special equipment. I'm talking about centrifuges and its parts, to allow mass production in order to create leverage.
I think we need to see what is the “new” JCPOA Iran agrees to in the coming months.

As long as the West can sanction Iran and scare away Russia and China from investing in Iran at a grand scale, then a industrial enrichment capacity will always stay out of reach not because Iran doesn’t have the intellectual capacity, but the opportunity cost of not having a fully functioning economy.

Right now Iran’s population will accept the pain and in some ways agree with the government and maybe even advocate for the bomb. But in 10-15 years if Iran is economically prospering and US comes along and says it’s time to revise JCPOA 2.0 and negotiate JCPOA 3.0.

US then says if you don’t then, I’ll slap sanctions and back to 2020 economic status you go. At that time it won’t be easy to once again convince the domestic population to once again “eat grass” to borrow a saying that Pakistan once said to the world.
 

PeeD

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I think we need to see what is the “new” JCPOA Iran agrees to in the coming months.

As long as the West can sanction Iran and scare away Russia and China from investing in Iran at a grand scale, then a industrial enrichment capacity will always stay out of reach not because Iran doesn’t have the intellectual capacity, but the opportunity cost of not having a fully functioning economy.

Right now Iran’s population will accept the pain and in some ways agree with the government and maybe even advocate for the bomb. But in 10-15 years if Iran is economically prospering and US comes along and says it’s time to revise JCPOA 2.0 and negotiate JCPOA 3.0.

US then says if you don’t then, I’ll slap sanctions and back to 2020 economic status you go. At that time it won’t be easy to once again convince the domestic population to once again “eat grass” to borrow a saying that Pakistan once said to the world.
As population grows and get educated and with Irans resources an Iranian "Juche" strategy becomes feasible.

North Korea wants to produce everything on their own, but their population/market is small and resources limited.

Iran will drive towards a capability to produce most valuable products inside the country, with support of petrodollars.
Things that can't be produced in any economic way such as chips and advanced compute hardware will come from China. Very heavy industry, can come from Russia.
Then there are black markets such as Dubai and Malaysia.

Iran can and will become more and more sanction resistance, to a level at which their impact will be negligible. At some point so negligible that the west will try to catch whats left of Irans market to benefit on their own from it.
A working "Juche" concept.
Since war and nuclear threat will also be off the table, what remains is soft, social warfare, brainwashing future generations via more popular western culture.

Hence a JCPOA-2 would me softer than -1.
Things look good, time is on Irans side and future is bright.
 

Stryker1982

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As population grows and get educated and with Irans resources an Iranian "Juche" strategy becomes feasible.

North Korea wants to produce everything on their own, but their population/market is small and resources limited.

Iran will drive towards a capability to produce most valuable products inside the country, with support of petrodollars.
Things that can't be produced in any economic way such as chips and advanced compute hardware will come from China. Very heavy industry, can come from Russia.
Then there are black markets such as Dubai and Malaysia.

Iran can and will become more and more sanction resistance, to a level at which their impact will be negligible. At some point so negligible that the west will try to catch whats left of Irans market to benefit on their own from it.
A working "Juche" concept.
Since war and nuclear threat will also be off the table, what remains is soft, social warfare, brainwashing future generations via more popular western culture.

Hence a JCPOA-2 would me softer than -1.
Things look good, time is on Irans side and future is bright.
Only problem and it's been a persistent issue is that the number of educated university graduates per year is far exceeding economic growth rate. The economy is not keeping up with this trend, therefore their are many unemployed but educated people. This is causing a big brain drain issue.
 

Arian

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@Arian


this not me or IRI


15 minutes ago

Iran has 'almost completed preparations' to enrich uranium to 60% -IAEA

I never said we couldn't start enriching uranium to 60% (In fact, I opened the thread for it :D). I said that replacing 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges will take weeks.
 

yavar

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I never said we couldn't start enriching uranium to 60% (In fact, I opened the thread for it :D). I said that replacing 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges will take weeks.
what i was trying to show you that ,
the damage to Natanz is not as big as propaganda which bean curry out by New york Time ( 9 months) and Israel media,
and the machines which were damaged are not in number 4000, and it only took half day to restore opwer and contniue enrichment
 

Arian

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what i was trying to show you that ,
the damage to Natanz is not as big as propaganda which bean curry out by New york Time ( 9 months) and Israel media,
and the machines which were damaged are not in number 4000, and it only took half day to restore opwer and contniue enrichment
Restoring power is a different thing from replacing damaged centrifuges. Restoring power shouldn't take even half a day for a strategic facility like Natanz.

Enrichment in Natanz was never stopped, but it was reduced by about 4,000 to 5,000 SWU due to an unknown number of IR-1 centrifuges crashing. If you're driving a car at 50 mph and your speed is reduced to 30 mph, it doesn't mean that you have stopped, but it also doesn't mean that your speed is the same.

Iranian authorities like Fereydoon Abbasi have confirmed that power outage causes IR-1 centrifuges to crash. Considering the fact that Iran was operating 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges at Natanz (confirmed by the IAEA), the news that 4,000 IR-1 centrifuges have crashed (which was released by Iranian media and journalists anyway) seems highly likely. And it will take weeks to replace those damaged centrifuges.
 

IbnAbdullah

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Salaam

Honest question.

Why is it that the Iranian nuclear program is hit every now and then but the Pakistani one doesn't seem to have the same problem?

Are threats to Pakistani nuclear program not reported or do the Iranians use security protocols that make them
 

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