• Monday, January 20, 2020

Iran has military advantage over US and allies in Middle East

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by mohsen, Nov 9, 2019.

  1. GWXP

    GWXP FULL MEMBER

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    Maybe not 50 trillion, but the costs will be huge, not only direct costs of war, but also the costs imposed by the closure of the Straight of Hormuz (with world economy falling into recession without the Persian Gulf oil) + destruction of oil infrastructure of Arabian peninsula + destabilization of Saudi Arabia when Iran destroys their water desalination plants with ballistic and cruise missiles....

    Huge US federal government debt goes to show that the costs will be so huge that they will default on their debt if they go to war with Iran
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2019
  2. Hack-Hook

    Hack-Hook ELITE MEMBER

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    They can always print the money and expect the world compensate for the consequence. Something they have done for the last half century.

    To me the money is not the problem. Its American public that is the problem. Unless another pearl harbor happen they won't tolerate such cost and body bags that certainly come with it. The politicians that start it are certainly done fore and it's best not to waste their time on pursuing the same career any more and the wealthy won't tolerate it not because of money issue . they are making money from war but they don't tolerate it because they'll loose something more important and that is years of investment they made on those politicians . they can't afford looking those investments as its the source of their power.
     
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  3. Battle of Waterloo

    Battle of Waterloo BANNED

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    The fact you think "Dr" Abbasi or his "think tank" is a credible source for anything is quite an insult to your own intelligence

    the subsequent occupation of Iraq lasted until 2011 and the US invasion of afghanistan started in 2001 and is still going to this day. the $6-7 trillion figure from Western sources includes all these years and lots of incidental costs incurred too, so the idea a 6 month war with Iran would cost 50x the Vietnam war is ridiculous.

    I said myself the cost would be huge and "prohibitive", so you're not adding anything new.

    Iran would not attack desalination plants, that would be a huge crime against humanity.

    US never defaults on their debt, you should read about the US' "exorbitant privilege".
     
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  4. GWXP

    GWXP FULL MEMBER

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    If Saudi Arabia houses US military for attack on Iran (and without Saudi Arabia housing US military-- war on Iran is impossible), Iran can destroy 30-50% of water desalination plants to put pressure and destabilize Saudi Arabia. Water desalination is an Achilles heel of Saudi Arabia and Iran will use it as a deterrence or punishment for Saudi Arabia. Saudis should know that they are not secure.
    US federal debt is 104% of GDP and is rising every year. Just for example when Greece's debt grew to 130% of GDP there was a major crisis in Greece. Of course US is not Greece but the debt level is alarming.

    In 2019 US will add additional 1 trillion to its debt.

    If USA goes to war with Iran, US economy will fall into recession. In recession you have falling government income from taxes and growing spending due to retirement of baby boomers and growing costs of war. You have falling income and rising spending--- meaning US budget deficit will be so huge and debt will be growing so quickly, that investors will demand higher interest rates on bonds. High interest rates will kill economy that is already in recession.

    If US prints money to fund ballooning budget deficit, this will devalue US dollar and generate high levels of inflation. If inflation is high and dollar devalues---all investors will sell dollar and US government bonds---- and buy real estate or gold and this will only exacerbate the problems. With high inflation, dollar devaluation and US government bonds falling in price as everyone sells them----dollar will lose the status of global reserve currency.

    The truth is that conflict in the Persian Gulf will be so devastating to global economy and highly indebted US economy in particular, that US will never attack Iran even if Iran starts enriching uranium to 90 percent from tomorrow.

    When you take into account all the consequences of war with Iran---like direct costs of war, recession, huge budget deficit and rising interest rates, or inflation and dollar devaluation or dollar loosing the status of global reserve currency----Dr Abbasi's costs might be nearly correct (though not just in 6 month period)

    Even without major crisis in the Persian Gulf, there are people like Ray Dalio-head of the largest hedge fund in the world, who believe US budget deficits will be so huge in the next years that investors (who already hold a lot of US government bonds) won't be able to buy all new bonds that will be issued in the next years.---so highly indebted US simply doesn't have money to fight a war with Iran
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
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  5. mohsen

    mohsen SENIOR MEMBER

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    Dr Abbasi is the world's most intelligent strategist.

    Perhaps you think they have reached the 50 trillion in an auction!

    Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan were not real wars, yet costed US trillions, so 50 trillion isn't surprising for me.

    Then tell them to print money for their current $ 22 trillion debt and save themselves!

    They can print money the way Rouhani did in Iran, but then that 50 will turn into 150, this is the concept of cost. You are mistaking the money with cost.
     
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  6. Hack-Hook

    Hack-Hook ELITE MEMBER

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    They are doing so ,you think how each year their government ask Senate to increase their allowed debt ?

    Those debts are the money they print without anything to back it up and the rest of the world like meek sheeps agree to pay for it . just simply by accepting the dollar is their transaction money.

    The rouhani example won't work because the rest of the world didn't agree to pay for it by accepting it as th er commerce medium .
    By the way not only Rouhani but also His predecessor did that.
     
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  7. mohsen

    mohsen SENIOR MEMBER

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    Production can compensate for printing money (though still will lead to inflation), that's what US still has while Rouhani didn't have at all compared to Ahmadinejad. (Ahmadinejad was another story cause it was mostly the vacuum caused by sudden loose of access to swift).

    In case of a war with Iran, cut of energy flow and subsequent world wide recession, US will loose both it's customers and it's own production capacity (the same in global economy), what's the point of printing money, if there is no trade? not only US can't print money anymore, the already printed dollars will quickly loos their value too.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2019
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  8. Retired Troll

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    Satan kisses the Mullah each morning and each night on the cheeks and thanks him.

    Iran's hegemony in the region is due to use of state sponsored terrorism and blackmail.
     
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  9. QWECXZ

    QWECXZ FULL MEMBER

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    When a Pakistani calls others terrorists you realize that the world is ending soon. lol
     
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  10. mohsen

    mohsen SENIOR MEMBER

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    state sponsored terrorism and blackmail are the definition of US.

    but we know people who fight US-backed terrorists are called terrorist by Great Satan (US) and it's puppets.
     
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  11. Retired Troll

    Retired Troll BANNED

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    The world ended for Iranians in 1979. Now they live in the age of Ahura Mazda the infallible Imam of the Persians.

    ISIS got transported from Syria to Afghanistan via Iran.
     
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  12. mohsen

    mohsen SENIOR MEMBER

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    U.S-founded ISIS was defeated by Iran.
    US founded terrorist groups like ISIS, Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra, Tahrir-Sham, etc wont vanish (whether in Afghanistan or in France) cause American's puppet Saudi Arabia is spreading the Wahhabism (ideology of all of these terrorist groups) in the world.

    All of your sentences are a lie, you just replace the word U.S with Iran, it's your level of desperation.

    Iran annihilated ISIS in battlefield, unlike US which made peace with them:
    U.S. Made Secret Deal With ISIS to Let Thousands of Fighters Flee Raqqa to Battle Assad in Syria, Former Ally Says
     
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  13. Retired Troll

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    Does not explain how ISIS got free travel pass from Syria to Afghanistan.

    I have little interest in your religious fanaticism so discuss geostrategic politics and tell me how ISIS got transported and how PKK terrorists are being backed by Iran.
     
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  14. mohsen

    mohsen SENIOR MEMBER

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    US cargo planes didn't ask for a vista to transfer their troops (ISIS) to Afghanistan.
    US Plans To Use ISIS In Afghanistan In New Round Of Geopolitical Standoff In Central Asia

    Yes, It's in your interest to hide the ideology of these terrorists so that people wouldn't know how US through it's wahhabi Saudi Arabia is spreading the terrorism.
     
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  15. Retired Troll

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    With Iranian proxy of Northern Alliance in control of Afghanistan? That simply proves how Iran and US work in tandem to take out countries for their shared vision of the region.
    Last person to be charged of terrorism in Pakistan was an Indian in active service operating from Chahbahar.