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IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, SEPTEMBER 30​

Sep 30, 2022 - Press ISW
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Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan
September 30, 5:00 pm ET
The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Anti-regime protests are continuing in at least 10 major cities in eight provinces and escalated violently in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30.
Protesters clashed with security forces in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, attacking local police stations and killing the provincial head of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) intelligence.[1] Social media users suggested that state security services deployed helicopters to abet their crackdown.[2] These clashes are among the most violent in the ongoing protest wave thus far.
The security situation around Zahedan could worsen in the coming days and weeks, straining state security services more than they already are. Anti-regime militancy is common around Zahedan, where Salafi-jihadi groups such as Jaish al Adl operate. An Iranian Baluch militant group, Anonymous Tigers of Baluchistan, reportedly released a video on September 30 threatening to escalate further against the regime in response to the clashes on September 30.[3] State security services have struggled with bandwidth constraints and exhaustion throughout Iran during the ongoing, countrywide protests, and escalations around Zahedan will impose additional pressure.
A senior Iranian military official, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, threatened to attack US forces in Iraq in retaliation for the US shootdown of an Iranian drone illegally operating in Iraqi airspace near an American military base.[4] Bagheri also suggested that Iran would attack US bases in Iraq for supporting anti-regime Kurdish groups. The IRGC has conducted six consecutive days of attacks on anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan.[5] Bagheri accused the US of using its Harir airbase in Erbil Province to coordinate with and support these groups in September 2021.[6] Iranian proxies in Iraq accused Omar Mahmoudzadeh, the American whom the IRGC killed in Iraqi Kurdistan on September 28, of training anti-regime Kurdish militants.[7]
Key Takeaways
  • Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance on September 30.
  • The ongoing, anti-regime protests occurred in at least 10 cities in eight provinces and were especially violent in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30.
  • Iran’s most senior military official threatened to attack US bases in Iraq.
Supreme Leader Succession
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance on September 30.
Iranian state media reported that Khamenei issued a statement expressing condolences over the death of senior cleric Mohsen Labbani.[8] Unverifiable social media rumors circulated on September 29 claiming that Khamenei’s health is worsening.[9]
President Ebrahim Raisi gave a speech in Tehran to commemorate the National Firefighting Day.[10] Raisi made no noteworthy remarks on supreme leader succession or the ongoing anti-regime protests.
Anti-Regime Protests
The ongoing, anti-regime protests occurred in at least 10 Iranian cities in eight provinces and were especially violent in southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan Province on September 30.
This is a moderate-to-high-confidence assessment. Iranian social media users documented unrest in:
  • Karaj, Alborz Province
  • Ardabil City, Ardabil Province
  • Kerman City, Kerman Province
  • Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
  • Dezful, Khuzestan Province
  • Abadan, Khuzestan Province
  • Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province
  • Saghez, Kurdistan Province
  • Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province
  • Tehran, Tehran Province

Violent clashes between protestors and Iranian security personnel erupted in Zahedan City, killing a senior provincial IRGC intelligence official.[11] Social media users circulated footage purportedly of Iranian security forces firing live ammunition at protestors and flying helicopters around Zahedan.[12] CTP cannot verify the authenticity of this footage or the social media claims that the helicopters included Cobra attack aircraft. A provincial official and Iranian media outlets later corroborated reports of unrest and claimed that unidentified assailants damaged local security infrastructure and killed at least 19 Zahedan residents, one of whom was a senior provincial IRGC intelligence official.[13] An independent cybersecurity watchdog organization announced severe internet disruptions in the vicinity of Zahedan as the regime likely seeks to impede further regional protest coordination and organization.[14]
The regime reports that it has arrested over a thousand Iranian civilians since protests began on September 16. Iranian state-affiliated media outlets and officials have reported the arrest of over a thousand Iranians throughout the country in recent days, although the total number of arrests is likely significantly higher.[15] Social media users have circulated reports of increased arrests in recent days as well, although these numbers are difficult to corroborate amidst ongoing internet restrictions.[16] Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security publicized the arrest of nine European nationals and dozens of purported opposition group members for their role in stoking nation-wide protests as the regime seeks to blame foreign actors for internal dissent.[17]
Iranian truckers have gone on strike, and their strikes could expand in the coming days. Iranian truckers have begun strikes to protest the regime crackdown.[18] Iranian trucker strikes have occurred in previous protests, notably 2018, and often spread rapidly. They pose a more serious threat to the regime than other labor-related movements because of their general economic effect and their widespread nature.[19] Iranian oil industry workers warned on September 26 that they will strike if the regime does not stop the crackdown.[20] Iranian rideshare drivers have stated that they will begin strikes on October 1.[21]
Unverified reports of dissent within the regime are circulating online.
  • Persian-language media outlet Zeitoon published a statement allegedly from students and teachers at the Tehran, Mashhad, and Qom seminaries on September 30, condemning Khamenei and the regime crackdown on the ongoing, anti-regime protests.[22] CTP cannot verify the authenticity of this report.
  • A statement appeared on the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency website allegedly from its employees on September 30, expressing support for the protests and condemning the regime.[23] The statement claimed that the regime has arrested 23,000 people and that 423 people have died in the protests. The statement also called on the Artesh—Iran's conventional military—to support the protests. Fars News Agency removed the statement from its website shortly after its publication. It is unclear whether the statement came from its employees or hackers, although Fars News did not claim that its site had been hacked.
  • Anti-regime outlet IranWire reported that members of the Basij Organization are refusing to attend meetings and are leaving their morality patrols, citing an unidentified former Iranian security official.[24] The Basij Organization is a paramilitary body under the IRGC responsible for civil defense and social control. The source told IranWire that Iranian authorities are concerned about defections and dissent in the state security services. CTP cannot confirm this report.
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the most senior military official in Iran, threatened to attack the US on September 30.
[25] Bagheri threatened to retaliate for the US downing of an Iranian Mohajer-6 drone on September 28 and stated that Iran will attack any US bases in Iraq that threaten the regime. Bagheri claimed that the US downing of the Iranian drone was evidence that the US cooperates with anti-regime Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan. Bagheri in September 2021 accused the US of using its Harir airbase in Erbil Province to coordinate with and support anti-regime militants against Iran.[26] The Armed Forces General Staff, which Bagheri heads, is Iran’s highest military body and responsible for military policy and strategic guidance. Bagheri is an IRGC general and a member of the network of senior IRGC officials that has been largely controlling the Guards for decades.
Iran’s Iraqi proxies are amplifying Tehran’s narrative blaming anti-regime Kurdish militias for the protests, but Iraqi political unrest may undermine the proxies’ messaging. Media channels closely tied to Iranian proxy militias Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataib Hezbollah (KH) emphasized anti-regime Kurdish militias’ alleged role in the Iranian protests in Telegram posts on September 29.[27] AAH and KH also downplayed the deaths of Kurdish civilians and US citizen Omar Mahmoudzadeh, further alleging that Mahmoudzadeh was affiliated with the US military and was training Kurdish militants.[28]
Iran’s Iraqi proxies are simultaneously conducting a media campaign against Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr's Iraqi nationalist movement. The proxies aim to politically isolate Sadr’s followers, known as Sadrists, and blame them for Iraq’s political gridlock and the armed clashes in Baghdad on September 28.[29] The proxies may prioritize the anti-Sadrist media campaign and dilute their messaging that blames the US and anti-regime Kurdish militias for the protests.
Solidarity protests against the Iranian regime occurred in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan, and Turkey on September 29-30.[30] Afghan women protested in front of the Iranian embassy in Kabul on September 29.[31] Taliban security forces fired live ammunition into the air to disperse the crowd. Demonstrators in Sulaymaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan, held anti-regime solidarity protests and denounced the continued IRGC military operation in Iraqi Kurdistan.[32] Turkish demonstrators protested near the Iranian consulate in Istanbul on September 29.[33]
Upcoming Sadrist and anti-corruption demonstrations may converge with solidarity protests against the Iranian regime. Iraqi demonstrators also held solidarity protests against the Iranian regime and set fire to Iranian flags on September 29 in Najaf, home to the most important Shia shrine.[34] The Sadrists seek to improve their bargaining position in Iraq’s ongoing government formation processes, and they may attempt to spread and tie anti-Iranian-regime sentiments to Iran’s Iraqi proxies. Anti-regime protests also may converge with upcoming demonstrations on the anniversary of Iraq’s October 2019 anti-corruption Tishreen movement. The movement coincided with similar anti-Iranian regime protests in Lebanon in October 2019 and in Iran in November 2019.
 

raptor22

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Jiesh al Adl a terrorist group supported by the US and KSA has taken responsibility for Zahedan ...
Even Sunni Imam of Sistan Molavai Abdol Hamid has condemn these terrorist attacks ...
2 terrorists Abdol Majid Rigi and Se Bakhsh have already eliminated ...
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Well this time there would be no mercy ... the source must be pounded ...

Ps: since when Jiesh al Adl is considered protests? it is new era ...
 
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hussain0216

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Pakistan and Iran should really step up our joint cooperation to slaughter the terrorists in Balochistan and sistan

These protests in Iran which are under control to be fair have a ethnic feel our entire region is criss crossed with these ethnic fault lines which create nothing but fassad
 

raptor22

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People went to Friday prayer and after leaving these terrorist open fire on them and killed and injured civilian and then attacked a police station ....
Like before that they blocked roads and killed civilians and people ...
How these people are considered protests by terrorist lovers?
Same thing happened on Mahsa Amini tragedy ... people had a peaceful demand and these rats turned it to what we know ... BBC, Iran international and VOA were supporting it by spreading misinformation .... in one case Alex Jones were condemned to pay 45 million $ for misinformation and hurting family of victim feeling but these MF have double standard ..
 

Hack-Hook

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Ps: since when Jiesh al Adl is considered protests? it is new era ...
probably since when they stopped, a bus in Zahedan - Zabol route and cut throat of a 15 year old child , since then in some circle they are called freedom seeker
 
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Hack-Hook

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Well sooner or later those whom are responsible would pay for it ....
they paid , it was the incident that happened almost 18 years ago the guilties caught and dealt with,
%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%DB%8C_%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%88%DA%A9%DB%8C.jpg
but after it Saudi media interviewed with them and in it called them freedom fighter who fight for Baluch people goals and freedom , the group was not completely destroyed because their base is outside Iran and now again they accept responsibility for this
 

kingQamaR

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Jiesh al Adl a terrorist group supported by the US and KSA has taken responsibility for Zahedan ...
Even Sunni Imam of Sistan Molavai Abdol Hamid has condemn these terrorist attacks ...
2 terrorists Abdol Majid Rigi and Se Bakhsh have already eliminated ...
View attachment 883864
Well this time there would be no mercy ... the source must be pounded ...

Ps: since when Jiesh al Adl is considered protests? it is new era ...

Going past your alleged threats. Where is this source you Iranians talk about. How will you attack this regional power the Saudis with your basic military? Or we’re you jumping up and down , meaning some one else ?
 

raptor22

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they paid , it was the incident that happened almost 18 years ago the guilties caught and dealt with,
%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%DB%8C_%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%88%DA%A9%DB%8C.jpg
but after it Saudi media interviewed with them and in it called them freedom fighter who fight for Baluch people goals and freedom , the group was not completely destroyed because their base is outside Iran and now again they accept responsibility for this
I meant those whom supported them, for sure the support was given before interview ..and I know they were dealt with but as far as the source is feeding them and remain intact we would see these things again.

Going past your alleged threats. Where is this source you Iranians talk about. How will you attack this regional power the Saudis with your basic military? Or we’re you jumping up and down , meaning some one else ?
The Saudis leader in highest level and before camera have threaten to bring war within Iranian borders ... there are many ways to punish a wrongdoers, Americans were not excluded from revenge let alone these stone age tribal countries .. once they stole a oil tanker in return they lost half of their oil production.
 

Sardar330

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Saudi lucifers are going Saddam way but wilder because they are non-Muslim zionists and they have full support from western camp

Golden calf statue in in Mecca:
 

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TruthSeeker

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IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 1​

Oct 1, 2022 - Press ISW
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Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 1, 2:30 pm ET
The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Iranian protesters successfully planned anti-regime demonstrations in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 despite regime censorship.
Protestors had announced plans over the past few days for protests on October 1 as CTP has previously reported. The successful coordination of these demonstrations despite internet restrictions suggests that protesters—specifically university students—have found ways to organize.
These protests pose a serious and increasing threat to the regime as their grievances resonate across a growing range of Iranians. These protests now include many marginalized minorities, merchants, students, and the urban elite.
Protesters have found secular martyrs around whom to rally. Mahsa Amini is the most prominent symbol of this movement, especially among social media users.[ii] Protesters have chanted slogans from a viral Iranian protest song titled “Baraaye,” which lists popular grievances against the regime.[iii] State security services arrested the author of this song, Shervin Hajipour, on September 29.[iv] These individuals provide resonant symbols for the protesters similar to how protesters rallied against the regime killing of Neda Agha Soltan during the 2009 Green Movement when Iranians took to the streets to protest the fraud-plagued reelection of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.[v]
Key Takeaways
  • Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement.
  • Ongoing, anti-regime protests expanded to involve at least 20 Iranian cities in 17 provinces.
  • Demonstrations in Iraq planned for other purposes adopted an anti-Iran tone and expressed solidarity with Iranian protests.
  • Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah criticized Iraqi protesters for chanting against the Iranian regime but did not make the anti-Iran protests a focal point of his address.
Supreme Leader Succession
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement on October 1.
A Persian-language social media account tweeted on October 1 that Khamenei will visit Law Enforcement Command (LEC) facilities in the coming days.[vi] The LEC is Iran’s premier internal security service and police force. The regime has used the LEC extensively throughout Iran to crack down on the ongoing, anti-regime protests.
Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests significantly increased in number and scale on October 1.
CTP can assess with moderate-to-high confidence that preorganized, anti-regime protests occurred in at least 21 Iranian cities in 17 different provinces. Iranian social media users documented unrest in the following locations:
  • Karaj, Alborz Province
  • Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province
  • Bushehr City, Bushehr Province
  • Esfahan City, Esfahan Province (large protest, violence reported)
  • Shiraz, Fars Province
  • Rasht, Gilan Province
  • Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province
  • Kerman City, Kerman Province
  • Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province
  • Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province (large protest)
  • Yasouj, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province
  • Dehgolan, Kurdistan Province
  • Marivan, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
  • Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
  • Babol, Mazandaran Province
  • Birjand, South Khorasan Province
  • Tehran City, Tehran Province (large protest, violence reported)
  • Qods City, Tehran Province
  • Yazd City, Yazd Province
  • Zanjan City, Zanjan Province

CTP can assess with moderate confidence that merchants participated in strikes supporting anti-regime protests in at least 11 Iranian towns and cities, particularly throughout northwestern Iranian provinces:
  • Ilam City, Ilam Province
  • Javanroud, Kermanshah Province
  • Ravansar, Kermanshah Province
  • Baneh, Kurdistan Province
  • Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province
  • Marivan, Kurdistan Province
  • Saghez, Kurdistan Province
  • Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province
  • Tehran City, Tehran Province
  • Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province
  • Oshnavieh, West Azerbaijan Province
Uncorroborated social media reports suggest that university students—specifically in Tehran, Esfahan, and Mashhad cities—mostly organized and attended protests on October 1.[vii] IRGC-affiliated Javan News reported that 93 percent of individuals participating in ongoing unrest are younger than 25.[viii] Footage circulating on social media shows protestors chanting a slogan unique to the Mahsa Amini movement: “Woman, Life, Freedom,” which appears to originate from a viral song detailing popular grievances against the regime.[ix] Iranians have reportedly played this song as a sign of dissent in recent days, underscoring the role of social media in mobilizing ongoing unrest.[x] Iranian authorities reportedly arrested the songwriter on September 29.[xi]
One of the 2009 Green Movement leaders, Mir Hossein Mousavi, released a statement calling for the Iranian armed forces to end their crackdown and support the protesters.[xii] The regime has kept Mousavi under house arrest since 2009.[xiii] The Kalemeh TV Telegram channel published Mousavi’s statement.
Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
Planned demonstrations in Iraq adopted an anti-Iran tone and expressed solidarity with Iranian protests on October 1.[xiv]
Iraqi demonstrators gathered in Baghdad to commemorate the third anniversary of the October 2019 protests, which protested against government corruption and inefficiency as well as against Iranian influence in Iraq. Social media accounts reported that comparable demonstrations occurred in Basra and Nasiriyah, although CTP cannot verify these claims.[xv] Supporters of prominent Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr participated in the Baghdad demonstrations. They voiced anti-Iran sentiment. Sadr has competed with Iranian-backed political parties for influence throughout the Iraqi government formation process, which has been in political deadlock since October 2021.
Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah criticized Iraqi protesters for chanting against the Iranian regime on October 1.[xvi] Nasrallah stated that Iran is the center of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” and accused the West of stoking protests in Iran. Nasrallah made these remarks in a speech that primarily focused on domestic Lebanese issues. Nasrallah likely seeks to prevent anti-Iran protests from spreading further throughout Iraq and to Lebanon. Similar protests against the Iranian regime spread from Iraq to Lebanon and Iran in October and November 2019, respectively.
The IRGC conducted attacks on anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan for the seventh consecutive day. The IRGC conducted an artillery attack on Samilan in Choman District, Erbil Province.[xvii]
 

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IRAN CRISIS UPDATE, OCTOBER 2​

Oct 2, 2022 - Press ISW
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Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan
October 2, 5:00 pm ET
The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The continued public absence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may be hindering regime officials’ efforts to develop a coherent response to the ongoing, anti-regime protests. Khamenei has not addressed the protests nor made a public appearance since September 21, possibly due to his reportedly worsening health.[1] An unidentified Iranian official told Reuters that intra-regime disagreements over supreme leader succession and protest management are dividing the regime elite.[2] This division suggests that Khamenei is not playing his usual role of cohering the regime during a crisis.
Khamenei’s silence may have opened a leadership vacuum that other regime authorities are having to fill. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) leaders struck a more conciliatory tone on October 2 as university students have adopted an increasingly prominent role in the protest movement. IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami said, “we consider [the protesting youth] our friends, and we will not allow the enemy to attack you.”[3] Salami was referring to his allegation that Iran’s international adversaries are coopting and stoking the protests to destabilize the regime. Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri met with students and celebrated their role in advancing the regime and revolution.[4] Khamenei would ordinarily play a prominent role in such messaging during a crisis, and his silence is abnormal.
President Ebrahim Raisi has played a minor role thus far in communicating to the protesters or the Iranian population. His low profile is remarkable given his legal responsibilities for maintaining public order in Iran. He may seek to avoid becoming the face of the crackdown to preserve his chances to be accepted as the next supreme leader, but it is hard to see his relative silence as anything other than weakness.
Anti-regime outlet IranWire has published reports claiming that security leaders have disagreed over how to respond to the protests, further indicating that they may lack guidance from the supreme leader. IranWire reported on September 24 that IRGC leaders accused other security bodies suppressing protests of negligence, citing an unidentified former Iranian official.[5] IranWire also reported on September 29 that senior IRGC officers have disagreed with the brutal treatment of protesters and instead advocated for fighting anti-regime Kurdish groups in northwestern Iran.[6] CTP cannot verify these reports.
Khamenei’s absence may be emboldening segments of the clerical establishment, especially in Qom, to criticize and pressure the regime more openly. Two senior clerics—Ayatollah Mustafa Mohaghegh Damad and Ayatollah Asadollah Bayat Zanjani—issued statements on September 17, criticizing state security services for the death of Mahsa Amini.[7] Ayatollah Hossein Nouri Hamedani called on the regime to listen to the people’s grievances on September 25.[8] Persian-language media outlet Zeitoon published a statement allegedly from students and teachers at the Tehran, Mashhad, and Qom seminaries on September 30, condemning Khamenei and the regime crackdown on the protests.[9]
Key Takeaways

  • Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement.
  • Anti-regime protests decreased in number across Iran but were significantly more violent in Tehran.
  • Social media rumors claimed that state security services are facing significant bandwidth constraints in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces.
  • Iran’s Iraqi proxies are attempting to decouple anti-corruption Tishreen movement protests from Iraqi nationalists’ anti-Iran sentiments.
  • Solidarity protests against the Iranian regime spread to Lebanon.
  • The IRGC attacked anti-regime Kurdish militia positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the seventh consecutive day.
Supreme Leader Succession
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement
on October 2. Persian-language social media account tweeted on October 1 that Khamenei will visit Law Enforcement (LEC) facilities in the coming days. The LEC is Iran’s premier internal security service and police force. The regime has used the LEC extensively throughout Iran to crack down on the ongoing, anti-regime protests.
Anti-Regime Protests
Anti-regime protests decreased in number across Iran but were significantly more violent—specifically in Tehran—on October 2.
CTP assesses with moderate-to-high confidence that demonstrations occurred in at least 13 Iranian cities in 10 different provinces. Iranian social media users documented unrest in the following locations, the majority of which occurred on or in the vicinity of university campuses.
  • Esfahan City, Esfahan Province
  • Najaf Abad, Esfahan Province
  • Kashan, Esfahan Province
  • Shahr-e Kord, Esfahan Province
  • Shiraz, Fars Province
  • Kerman City, Kerman Province
  • Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province
  • Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province
  • Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
  • Tehran City, Tehran Province (violence reported)
  • Yazd, Yazd Province
  • Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province
  • Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province (violence reported)
Map of Iran protests October 2
Regime security forces brutally suppressed anti-regime protests at the Sharif University of Technology in Tehran on October 2. Sharif University students reported that security personnel barricaded, shot, and arrested student protestors.[10] Some social media users reported that Basij members seized students’ cellphones and checked for footage or photographs of protests. Basijis allegedly beat students who possessed documentation of protests on their personal devices.[11] Students were still able to circulate footage of protests—and ensuing violence—to Twitter accounts reporting on ongoing demonstrations.[12] Some Sharif University students called on other local Iranian youth to visit Sharif’s campus in solidarity.[13] Sharif University’s student newspaper was similarly able to report on the regime’s violent protest crackdown on its official Twitter account.[14] Science, Research, and Technology Minister Mohammad Ali Zolfi Gol allegedly visited the Sharif University campus to defuse tensions, likely signaling the gravity of clashes between protestors and security forces.[15] Student protestors reportedly remain unable to leave the university campus at the time of this publication.[16]
Sharif University protests may particularly concern the regime given the importance of the university to the military establishment. Sharif University of Technology has ties to the Iranian armed forces and supports the regime's ballistic missile development. Sharif University has previously supported the Iranian nuclear program and has close ties to the Guards.[17] The US Treasury Department sanctioned Sharif University President Rasoul Jalili in 2012 for his role in supporting human rights abuses, censorship, and terrorism perpetrated by the Iranian government.[18]
Social media rumors claimed that state security services are facing significant bandwidth constraints in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces.
A Persian-language social media account tweeted that the IRGC Ground Forces Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Headquarters has called on local Kurdish militias to secure Baneh, Kurdistan Province and Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province.[19] The Hamzeh Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Headquarters oversees IRGC activities and security in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces.[20] The account claimed that the regime’s elite security forces, such as the LEC Special Units, have been deployed to the major cities in West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces, suggesting that these security forces do not have the bandwidth to cover Baneh and Mahabad.
The regime could escalate significantly against the protesters in Najaf Abad if they expand further. The IRGC Ground Forces 8th Najaf-e Ashraf Armored Division is headquartered around the town’s periphery.[21] The IRGC is likely sensitive to instability particularly in Najaf Abad given the location of this armored division‘s headquarters. Najaf Abad is a relatively small town with a population of around 300,000 according to 2016 estimates.[22]

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments
Iran’s Iraqi proxies are attempting to decouple anti-corruption Tishreen movement protests from Iraqi nationalists’ anti-Iran sentiments.
Media channels affiliated with Iranian proxy militias Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataib Hezbollah (KH) thanked peaceful Tishreen protesters, distinguishing them from the violence perpetrated by Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's followers during the October 1 protests in Baghdad.[23] AAH and KH media channels also claimed that cleavages had emerged between Tishreen protesters and the Sadrists.[24]
AAH, KH, and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) media channels echoed Iranian regime talking points that downplayed the severity of the protests and blamed Iran’s adversaries. AAH and KH media channels claimed that the US, United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia instigated and encouraged unfavorable reporting of the protests.[25] Proxy media channels also stressed the protests’ shrinking scale and warned that outside actors seek to divide the Iranian people.[26] LH media outlets repeatedly promoted IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami’s September 2 speech that warned the US, United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia are attempting to deceive Iran’s youth.[27]
Solidarity protests against the Iranian regime spread to Lebanon on October 2.[28] Several dozen women staged a solidarity protest in Beirut and chanted the Arabic translation of the popular Iranian “women, life, freedom” protest slogan.[29]
The IRGC attacked anti-regime Kurdish militia positions in Iraqi Kurdistan for the seventh consecutive day. The IRGC conducted an artillery attack on Sidekan in Soran District, Erbil Province.[30] The IRGC has concentrated attacks on militia positions in Choman District and Soran District since September 26.[31]
 

Titanium100

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Going past your alleged threats. Where is this source you Iranians talk about. How will you attack this regional power the Saudis with your basic military? Or we’re you jumping up and down , meaning some one else ?

If they were to open a front with the Saudis the playbook is gonna be the same as the Sassinds getting completely annexed like they did back in the day by the Arabian peninsulavians.. It is technically a massive war that they will get if they ask for and it will be the last stroke that broke the camels back..

https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.cnn.com%2Fcnnnext%2Fdam%2Fassets%2F220829195824-gautam-adani-file.jpg



Adani:

His worlds second richest man currently his a parsi a descendant from direct sassinds empire lineage the Sassinds who fled Omar ibn Al-Khattab's take over of Persia current day Iran..
 
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raptor22

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Dec 8, 2011
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The joint graduation ceremony of the students of officer universities of the armed forces today just to show how others updates are just their wish list:

14010711000248638003956036247232_75850_PhotoT.jpg



14010711000248638003956042341102_47943_PhotoT.jpg

14010711000248638003956048278818_59693_PhotoT.jpg
 

TNT

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Pakistan
Disappointed with khamenei statement about protests. Instead of owning and accepting mistake, he as usual blames foreign forces for peotests, i mean did they ship ppl toniran to protest? Or brainwashed them?
 

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