What's new

Indonesia Defence Forum

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
20,306
23
21,421
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
1669800040975.png

 

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
20,306
23
21,421
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia

Pakistani PM extends condolences​

  • Wednesday, 30 Nov 2022

PAKISTANI Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has extended condolences to Indonesian President Joko Widodo over the loss of precious lives and assets in a deadly earthquake jolting Indonesia, according to a statement issued by the prime minister’s office.

In a telephone conversation held with the Indonesian president on Monday, the Pakistani prime minister expressed solidarity with the people of Indonesia.

“The people of Pakistan could feel the anguish of their Indonesian brothers and sisters, having recently suffered immensely due to natural calamities,” the statement quoted Sharif as saying.

Thanking the Indonesian president for the assistance provided by his government for the victims of floods in Pakistan, the prime minister offered to extend Pakistan’s support for relief efforts underway in Indonesia in the wake of the deadly earthquake, said the statement. — Xinhua

 

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
20,306
23
21,421
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
My take on next Indonesia President

Regarding next Indonesia President, I expect it will likely be between Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. Prabowo is in second place based on majority of 2022 survey. His popularity is in decreasing mode as last year he was still the most popular candidate for President.

I think after Anies is backed by Nasdem Party and then soon will likely be endorsed by Demokrat and PKS Parties as well, his popularity will likely be boosted and I expect in middle of November survey (the result will be released in December 2022) he will likely sit in the second place after Ganjar Pranowo.


AlhamduliLLAH, the trend seems to be going in line with both my prediction and expectation. Charta Politika is quite credible, although I rate Indikator and LSI as the most credible survey company in Indonesia.

Here my prediction on those three people

Ganjar
: He will likely follow Jokowi policy in economy and defense. His chance is only with Golkar/PPP/PAN coalition. PDI-P is unlikely to support him. So far he is not allowed to talk about Presidency by his party, so we dont know his plan on both economy and defense, but due to Jokowi support on him, his policy is likely pretty similar on how Jokowi administration policy on both economic and defense.

For defense, maybe will be more similar with Jokowi first term as there is no Prabowo as Defense Minister anymore in his possible administration. Larger spending on defense in the second Jokowi administration shows Jokowi tolerance as he had brough Prabowo into his ruling coalition.

Jokowi also has big tendency to support local defense industry in term of the acquisition. It can be seen on the first term acquisition tendency, he is regarded as very pro local products and his administration tries so hard to improve and grow local product sales on Government spending and SOE spending.

Anies : He will likely have different economic policy, not focusing too much on infrastructure as like Jokowi, I dont know the rest of policy but as Academic Professor he may have more willingness on Research program. For defense I see more research and more support for KF21/IFX program will likely be pursuit as Demokrat party is also part of Anies supporter and it is under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2009 that the program is started (MOU).

Prabowo : I dont know about his economic plan, but for defense it will likely be crazy, I mean his previous proposal that is rejected by Jokowi and his economic team could be executed under his Presidency
-----------------------------------------------

Charta Politika Survey: Presidential Candidate Rivalry Purses Two Names, Ganjar and Anies

Kompas.com- 30/11/2022, 11:01 PM

1669833248867.png


JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com- Charta Politika's latest survey of presidential candidates (capres) ranks Ganjar Pranowo as the figure with the highest electability. The electoral rate of the Governor of Central Java reached 32.6 percent. Then, in second place is former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan whose electability rose to 23.1 percent.

Anies managed to shift Prabowo Subianto to third place. The electability of the Gerindra Party Chairman fell to 22.0 percent. Anies' Electability Surpasses Prabowo, Now Second Only to Ganjar Executive Director of Charta Politika Yunarto Wijaya said that the competition for presidential candidates in the future was reduced to only two names, namely Ganjar and Anies.

"It tends to purse instead of talking about three names, my speculation will be narrowed to Ganjar and Anies," said Yunarto in the Charta Politika Indonesia YouTube show, Tuesday (29/11/2022). Although Prabowo's figure is still in great demand, Yunarto said, data shows that the names Ganjar and Anies dominate in various regions. According to Yunarto, this situation cannot be separated from the history of the 2014 and 2019 Presidential Elections (Pilpres) which confronted Jokowi with Prabowo.

The figure of Ganjar is now the most closely imaged as Jokowi's successor. Meanwhile, the figure who is synonymous with the antithesis of the president is no longer Prabowo, but Anies. Therefore, it is not surprising that now public support has strengthened to Ganjar and Anies, while Prabowo has begun to be marginalized. "The tendency to control this territory is starting to narrow down to two names," Yunarto said.

Apart from these names, there are several other figures who also have the potential to become presidential candidates. West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil ranked fourth in the survey with an electability of 5.6 percent.

Then successively there were the names of the Chairman of the Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono aka AHY (3.5 percent), the Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Uno (2.0 percent), and the Governor of East Java Khofifah Indar Parawansa (1.6 percent).

Then, in eighth place and so on, there is the figure of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia Puan Maharani (1.6 percent), Chairman of the Golkar Party Airlangga Hartarto (1.5 percent), and Minister of SOEs Erick Thohir (1.4 percent).

The Charta Politika survey was held on November 4-12, 2022. The survey uses the face-to-face interview method.

Editor : Fitria Chusna Farisa

 
Last edited:

182

FULL MEMBER
Oct 31, 2016
434
0
541
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
This is the 5th prototype for Indonesia. I suspect there will be another ceremony for this prototype and there will be several Indonesian high officials invited for the ceremony.

I think they cover the Indonesian flag due to protect the Indonesian flag from any thing, this shows Korean respect on Indonesia and carefully care the flag cleanness before the possible ceremony take place. The flag, I think, being put on the body using sticker and they will release the sticker when the ceremony will be held, so not releasing the sticker sooner is mean to protect it from anything that can make the flag not look perfect and clean during the possible ceremony event (IFX roll out ceremony).



View attachment 900575

sokor pres-korean defence industries.jpg


sokor pres-korean defence industries-1.jpg
sokor pres-korean defence industries-2-ar.jpg


agred. there's no flag removed only temporary-covered, and i found that our MINDEF-Logo still there.
check arrow-point

for me, it's KAI own private ceremony to welcome their president visit. look at the stage not only KF-21 there also TA-50 golden eagles even ballistic missiles truck mini mock-up.
so, why people baperan lol.
remember pindad did the same too with medium tank harimau, i'll show y'all


pindad harimau m-t-2.jpg

pindad harimau m-t-3.jpg
pindad harimau m-t-4.jpg
 

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
20,306
23
21,421
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
View attachment 901622

View attachment 901623 View attachment 901624

agred. there's no flag removed only temporary-covered, and i found that our MINDEF-Logo still there.
check arrow-point

for me, it's KAI own private ceremony to welcome their president visit. look at the stage not only KF-21 there also TA-50 golden eagles even ballistic missiles truck mini mock-up.
so, why people baperan lol.
remember pindad did the same too with medium tank harimau, i'll show y'all


View attachment 901902
View attachment 901903 View attachment 901904

Talking about fifth prototype (Indonesian IFX) will be tested in Korea and only will be given to Indonesia once the program reach type certificate in late 2026 or beginning of 2027 inshaAllah is not a news from me as I have stated long time ago around July, and this is why we send several test pilots there


Many Indonesian haters would like to see Indonesia kick out from the program, they have already made many comments over that for quite long. We have already seen it in FB, YT comment, or defense forum. Indonesia which is part of the developer is something that they dont want to see.
 
Last edited:

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
20,306
23
21,421
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
AlhamduliLLAH, the trend seems to be going in line with both my prediction and expectation. Charta Politika is quite credible, although I rate Indikator and LSI as the most credible survey company in Indonesia.

Here my prediction on those three people

Ganjar
: He will likely follow Jokowi policy in economy and defense. His chance is only with Golkar/PPP/PAN coalition. PDI-P is unlikely to support him. So far he is not allowed to talk about Presidency by his party, so we dont know his plan on both economy and defense, but due to Jokowi support on him, his policy is likely pretty similar on how Jokowi administration policy on both economic and defense.

For defense, maybe will be more similar with Jokowi first term as there is no Prabowo as Defense Minister anymore in his possible administration. Larger spending on defense in the second Jokowi administration shows Jokowi tolerance as he had brough Prabowo into his ruling coalition.

Jokowi also has big tendency to support local defense industry in term of the acquisition. It can be seen on the first term acquisition tendency, he is regarded as very pro local products and his administration tries so hard to improve and grow local product sales on Government spending and SOE spending.

Anies : He will likely have different economic policy, not focusing too much on infrastructure as like Jokowi, I dont know the rest of policy but as Academic Professor he may have more willingness on Research program. For defense I see more research and more support for KF21/IFX program will likely be pursuit as Demokrat party is also part of Anies supporter and it is under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2009 that the program is started (MOU).

Prabowo : I dont know about his economic plan, but for defense it will likely be crazy, I mean his previous proposal that is rejected by Jokowi and his economic team could be executed under his Presidency
-----------------------------------------------

Charta Politika Survey: Presidential Candidate Rivalry Purses Two Names, Ganjar and Anies

Kompas.com- 30/11/2022, 11:01 PM

View attachment 901761


JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com- Charta Politika's latest survey of presidential candidates (capres) ranks Ganjar Pranowo as the figure with the highest electability. The electoral rate of the Governor of Central Java reached 32.6 percent. Then, in second place is former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan whose electability rose to 23.1 percent.

Anies managed to shift Prabowo Subianto to third place. The electability of the Gerindra Party Chairman fell to 22.0 percent. Anies' Electability Surpasses Prabowo, Now Second Only to Ganjar Executive Director of Charta Politika Yunarto Wijaya said that the competition for presidential candidates in the future was reduced to only two names, namely Ganjar and Anies.

"It tends to purse instead of talking about three names, my speculation will be narrowed to Ganjar and Anies," said Yunarto in the Charta Politika Indonesia YouTube show, Tuesday (29/11/2022). Although Prabowo's figure is still in great demand, Yunarto said, data shows that the names Ganjar and Anies dominate in various regions. According to Yunarto, this situation cannot be separated from the history of the 2014 and 2019 Presidential Elections (Pilpres) which confronted Jokowi with Prabowo.

The figure of Ganjar is now the most closely imaged as Jokowi's successor. Meanwhile, the figure who is synonymous with the antithesis of the president is no longer Prabowo, but Anies. Therefore, it is not surprising that now public support has strengthened to Ganjar and Anies, while Prabowo has begun to be marginalized. "The tendency to control this territory is starting to narrow down to two names," Yunarto said.

Apart from these names, there are several other figures who also have the potential to become presidential candidates. West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil ranked fourth in the survey with an electability of 5.6 percent.

Then successively there were the names of the Chairman of the Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono aka AHY (3.5 percent), the Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Uno (2.0 percent), and the Governor of East Java Khofifah Indar Parawansa (1.6 percent).

Then, in eighth place and so on, there is the figure of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia Puan Maharani (1.6 percent), Chairman of the Golkar Party Airlangga Hartarto (1.5 percent), and Minister of SOEs Erick Thohir (1.4 percent).

The Charta Politika survey was held on November 4-12, 2022. The survey uses the face-to-face interview method.

Editor : Fitria Chusna Farisa


LSI has released his recent report. I put it here because it is important to see future Indonesian defense acquisition program.

Anies Baswedan's Electability Rises, LSI Director: 40% of Prabowo Voters Switch​

Story from Theophilus Ifan Sucipto•Yesterday

Jakarta: Executive Director of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Djayadi Hanan analyzed the increasing electability of nasdem party presidential candidate Anies Baswedan. Anies' electability even shifted PrabowoSubianto's position.

"Prabowo's voters still have the majority of Prabowo but maybe around 40 percent have (switched to Anies)," said Djayadi at the MGN Complex, West Jakarta, Wednesday, November 30, 2022.

Djayadi said during 2014-2019 Anies was considered one camp with Prabowo. So the people who voted fo rAnies were many of Prabowo's voters in 2019.

"Prabowo's (electability) tends to stagnate because his popularity has been pegged and his voice has been taken by Anies a lot," he said.

Djayadi could not predict whether Prabowo's voter migration to Anies would continue until 2024. It depends on Prabowo's response to the phenomenon.

Also how Anies' efforts increase popularity and closeness to the community," he said.

In addition, Djayadi said that Anies' electability soared because it was the first time he fought in the presidential election (pilpres). So the room to increase support is even greater.

"In terms of popularity, he (Anies) is still in the 80 percent range. With Anies active after becoming governor, his popularity level is getting higher," he explained.

Anies' electability increased by more than 23 percent. This is based on the Charta Politikasurvey.

"There is an increase (electability) in Mas Anies Baswedan from (survey) September 20.6 percent, now to 23.1 percent," said Charta Politika Executive Director Yunarto Wijaya in a survey release in Jakarta, Tuesday, November 29, 2022.

Yunarto said the increase in electability shifted Prabowo Subianto's position, which has now dropped to third place. Prabowo's electability reached 24.4 in the September 2022 survey but has now dropped to 22 percent.

"As a momentum, there was a 2.5 percent increase in the effect of the NasDem declaration or post-declaration and enough to overtake Mr. Prabowo," he said.

 

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
20,306
23
21,421
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
Breaking News, Indonesia United Coalition (KIB-Golkar, PAN, PPP) is determined to see Golkar current leader, Airlangga, as President candidate. If PDI-P doesnt put Ganjar as its President candidate, then Anies Baswedan probability to become President of Indonesia starting in November 2024 is higher.

In term of defense, it means possibility to see many changes policy could potentially happen since Anies Baswedan will likely be different with both Jokowi and Prabowo in term of its defense policy. AHY (Agus Yudhoyono, former President SBY son) as Demokrat leader, part of Anies coalition, could potentially be Minister of Defense under Anies possible administration. He is US Military educated and served in Military (Army-Kostrad) before resigning and active in politics.


----------------------------

AHY met with several Australian government and parliament leaders Today

1669889567769.png

 
Last edited:

182

FULL MEMBER
Oct 31, 2016
434
0
541
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia

Navy, shipbuilder build warship, patrol boat in Batam

0E4D7F73-5DC1-4F71-9C6B-BCB1BCA47F9D.jpeg
The physical construction of TNI AL warship in Batam, Riau Islands ANTARA/HO-Dinas Penerangan TNI AL


Manufacturing of the fast patrol boat PC 40 and warships KAL 28 that use domestic components is not merely aimed at improving TNI AL's capability but also at reflecting the concrete step and commitment of TNI AL in ensuring the success of the govern

Batam, Riau Islands (ANTARA) - The Indonesian Navy (TNI AL) is cooperating with a domestic shipbuilding company in building two warships and a 40-meter fast patrol boat

The two warships are being built in the dockyard of PT Citra Shipyard in Batam, Riau Islands, the naval chief of staff's assistant for planning and budgeting Rear Admiral Irwan Isnurwanto, noted in a written statement released on Wednesday,

"Manufacturing of the fast patrol boat PC 40 and warships KAL 28 that use domestic components is not merely aimed at improving TNI AL's capability but also at reflecting the concrete step and commitment of TNI AL in ensuring the success of the government's program in developing self-reliance in the defense industry and the utilization of domestic products," he noted.

He said PT Citra Shipyard is one of the several domestic shipbuilders appointed by TNI AL to produce warships in the 2022-2023 budget year.

Manufacturing of the ships is the realization of Naval Chief of Staff Admiral Yudo Margono's priority program to increase TNI AL's fleet, he remarked.

"It is an essential part of the program to modernize alutsista (primary weapons system) that is one of the priorities in the development of TNI AL," he stated.
IMG_20221130_102951.jpg


"The physical construction of PC 40m and KAL 28 kicked off today to become the essential component of TNI AL in the future and meet the demand, mandate, and expectation of the state and nation to realize defense and security and protect the marine interests of the nation and state," he remarked.

IMG_20221130_102851.jpg
 

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
20,306
23
21,421
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
LSI has released his recent report. I put it here because it is important to see future Indonesian defense acquisition program.

Anies Baswedan's Electability Rises, LSI Director: 40% of Prabowo Voters Switch​

Story from Theophilus Ifan Sucipto•Yesterday

Jakarta: Executive Director of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Djayadi Hanan analyzed the increasing electability of nasdem party presidential candidate Anies Baswedan. Anies' electability even shifted PrabowoSubianto's position.

"Prabowo's voters still have the majority of Prabowo but maybe around 40 percent have (switched to Anies)," said Djayadi at the MGN Complex, West Jakarta, Wednesday, November 30, 2022.

Djayadi said during 2014-2019 Anies was considered one camp with Prabowo. So the people who voted fo rAnies were many of Prabowo's voters in 2019.

"Prabowo's (electability) tends to stagnate because his popularity has been pegged and his voice has been taken by Anies a lot," he said.

Djayadi could not predict whether Prabowo's voter migration to Anies would continue until 2024. It depends on Prabowo's response to the phenomenon.

Also how Anies' efforts increase popularity and closeness to the community," he said.

In addition, Djayadi said that Anies' electability soared because it was the first time he fought in the presidential election (pilpres). So the room to increase support is even greater.

"In terms of popularity, he (Anies) is still in the 80 percent range. With Anies active after becoming governor, his popularity level is getting higher," he explained.

Anies' electability increased by more than 23 percent. This is based on the Charta Politikasurvey.

"There is an increase (electability) in Mas Anies Baswedan from (survey) September 20.6 percent, now to 23.1 percent," said Charta Politika Executive Director Yunarto Wijaya in a survey release in Jakarta, Tuesday, November 29, 2022.

Yunarto said the increase in electability shifted Prabowo Subianto's position, which has now dropped to third place. Prabowo's electability reached 24.4 in the September 2022 survey but has now dropped to 22 percent.

"As a momentum, there was a 2.5 percent increase in the effect of the NasDem declaration or post-declaration and enough to overtake Mr. Prabowo," he said.


Indikator, the most trusted survey company in Indonesia that I also have witnessed since I already follow politics since my younger age shows Anies is almost ahead of Ganjar. There is Anies euphoria I would say going on after he is endorsed publicly from Nasional Democrat Party (Nasdem). The other survey company where I have highly trust is LSI (Lembaga Survey Indonesia)

I would say possibly bright future for KF21/IFX program if Anies wins as there is Democrat party inside the coalition where the party is highly supportive on the program since the founder, SBY, is the one who initiate the program after South Korea asked Indonesia to join the program in 2009. Democrat party recent survey also shows good result as the most popular party under Anies Baswedan party coalition (Nasdem, Demokrat, PKS)

In term of acquisition, the program has already been backed by the law but his possible raising to power will likely make the financing on our financial obligation and the investment on the production facility will be much easier than current Jokowi administration.

-------------------------------------------------

Indikator latest survey


The result in the simulation of three names, Ganjar Pranowo achieved 33.9 percent.

Followed by Anies Baswedan with 32.2 percent, who beat Prabowo Subianto by getting 23.9 percent.

In this survey, the total sample was 1,220 people, who came from all provinces who were proportionally distributed.

Assuming a simple random sampling method, the sample size of 1,220 respondents had a margin of error (MoE) of about 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

While the survey was conducted on October 30 - November 5, 2022.


 
Last edited:

Cromwell

FULL MEMBER
Jul 7, 2019
692
0
988
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
Nice to see you back, waiting your insider information to be posted here soon.....;)

Older member like @nufix and @Reashot Xigwin are always active in here by the way
I'm not an insider though my other works often crosspath with defence related issue, i only share what i know.

20221204_202100.jpg

It's a long term commitment we have signed years ago and there's no retreat from this. KF-21 Boramae for TNI-AU must go on, but how many exactly we are planning ? 3 Squadrons ( 50 units ) ? Well i'm satisfied enough if we can keep the commitment
 
Last edited:

Indos

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jul 25, 2013
20,306
23
21,421
Country
Indonesia
Location
Indonesia
I'm not an insider though my other works often crosspath with defence related issue, i only share what i know.

View attachment 902846
It's a long term commitment we have signed years ago and there's no retreat from this. KF-21 Boramae for TNI-AU must go on, but how many exactly we are planning ? 3 Squadrons ( 50 units ) ? Well i'm satisfied enough if we can keep the commitment

The minimum we should order is 48, but of course we can order many more like 100 or more for instant and those 100 planes will be built in Indonesian Aerospace. Just for information, Indonesia is not buying production license (in licensing there is maximum plane that we can produce in the country), but we are part of developer with 20 % stake and have been inside the program since the start of development with both engineers and financing as we all know. The same like CN 235, the different is that for CN235 our stake is greater at 50%.


17 billion USD excess Fund

I would say our country is now in transition period with focus more on the economy and infrastructure. Basically government has around 17 billion USD excess fund taken from this year and will be used for facing 2023 economic challenge and this is to make sure that our budget deficit will be less than 3 % of GDP as target. Any way our budget deficit until November this year has already been less than 1 % of GDP, AlhamduliLLAH.

Despite having that large available money, our Finance Minister doesnt just pay all our KF21/IFX program financial obligation because I see current administration as very economic centric and very discipline as KF21/IFX program is Defense Ministry program, so the payment should come from that particular ministry, regardless Finance Ministy has extra available money for this year and next year, although next year payment could be larger than 30 million USD if Finance Ministry is agree on that. If 2023 condition is also as robust as this year, I predict 2024 payment will likely be quite big.

Any way, this year is extra ordinary, I mean we would likely to see Indonesia trade surplus exceeding German trade surplus this year, as German is in the second position after China in last year surplus. In addition, economic institution like OECD, World Bank, and IMF have predicted Indonesia economy to be around 5 % next year.

2030 Defense Budget projection

By seeing on their estimate, it shows that Indonesia economy will likely accelerate further in term of its economic power relatives to other G20 countries except for India. Indonesian economy is supported by cheaper and more available energy, huge human power, huge market with domestic spending at around 52 % of GDP, and as soon as Jokowi administration is over, all of the infrastructure, EV ecosystem grand plan, and Omnibus Law full implementation, very possible political stability with more mature democratic system, will likely boost the economy further.

When KF21/IFX program starts its mass manufacturing phase in Indonesian Aerospace in 2027 or 2028 inshaAllah, then Indonesia nominal GDP is predicted to have already reached around 2 trillion USD, currently our economy is still at 1.2 trillion USD (2022 estimate). Our defense budget in 2030 will likely be doubled compared to current figure at 9.3 billion USD.

2030 GDP estimate based on latest update (October 2022)

 
Last edited:

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom