My take on next Indonesia President
Regarding next Indonesia President, I expect it will likely be between Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. Prabowo is in second place based on majority of 2022 survey. His popularity is in decreasing mode as last year he was still the most popular candidate for President.
I think after Anies is backed by Nasdem Party and then soon will likely be endorsed by Demokrat and PKS Parties as well, his popularity will likely be boosted and I expect in middle of November survey (the result will be released in December 2022) he will likely sit in the second place after Ganjar Pranowo.
The younger generation would choose either Central Java Governor Ganjar or outgoing Jakarta Governor Anies as their president. Read more at straitstimes.com.
AlhamduliLLAH, the trend seems to be going in line with both my prediction and expectation. Charta Politika is quite credible, although I rate Indikator and LSI as the most credible survey company in Indonesia.
Here my prediction on those three people
: He will likely follow Jokowi policy in economy and defense. His chance is only with Golkar/PPP/PAN coalition. PDI-P is unlikely to support him. So far he is not allowed to talk about Presidency by his party, so we dont know his plan on both economy and defense, but due to Jokowi support on him, his policy is likely pretty similar on how Jokowi administration policy on both economic and defense.
For defense, maybe will be more similar with Jokowi first term as there is no Prabowo as Defense Minister anymore in his possible administration. Larger spending on defense in the second Jokowi administration shows Jokowi tolerance as he had brough Prabowo into his ruling coalition.
Jokowi also has big tendency to support local defense industry in term of the acquisition. It can be seen on the first term acquisition tendency, he is regarded as very pro local products and his administration tries so hard to improve and grow local product sales on Government spending and SOE spending.
: He will likely have different economic policy, not focusing too much on infrastructure as like Jokowi, I dont know the rest of policy but as Academic Professor he may have more willingness on Research program. For defense I see more research and more support for KF21/IFX program will likely be pursuit as Demokrat party is also part of Anies supporter and it is under Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2009 that the program is started (MOU).
: I dont know about his economic plan, but for defense it will likely be crazy, I mean his previous proposal that is rejected by Jokowi and his economic team could be executed under his Presidency
Charta Politika Survey: Presidential Candidate Rivalry Purses Two Names, Ganjar and Anies
Kompas.com- 30/11/2022, 11:01 PM
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com- Charta Politika's latest survey of presidential candidates (capres) ranks Ganjar Pranowo as the figure with the highest electability. The electoral rate of the Governor of Central Java reached 32.6 percent. Then, in second place is former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan whose electability rose to 23.1 percent.
Anies managed to shift Prabowo Subianto to third place. The electability of the Gerindra Party Chairman fell to 22.0 percent. Anies' Electability Surpasses Prabowo, Now Second Only to Ganjar Executive Director of Charta Politika Yunarto Wijaya said that the competition for presidential candidates in the future was reduced to only two names, namely Ganjar and Anies.
"It tends to purse instead of talking about three names, my speculation will be narrowed to Ganjar and Anies," said Yunarto in the Charta Politika Indonesia YouTube show, Tuesday (29/11/2022). Although Prabowo's figure is still in great demand, Yunarto said, data shows that the names Ganjar and Anies dominate in various regions. According to Yunarto, this situation cannot be separated from the history of the 2014 and 2019 Presidential Elections (Pilpres) which confronted Jokowi with Prabowo.
The figure of Ganjar is now the most closely imaged as Jokowi's successor. Meanwhile, the figure who is synonymous with the antithesis of the president is no longer Prabowo, but Anies. Therefore, it is not surprising that now public support has strengthened to Ganjar and Anies, while Prabowo has begun to be marginalized. "The tendency to control this territory is starting to narrow down to two names," Yunarto said.
Apart from these names, there are several other figures who also have the potential to become presidential candidates. West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil ranked fourth in the survey with an electability of 5.6 percent.
Then successively there were the names of the Chairman of the Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono aka AHY (3.5 percent), the Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Uno (2.0 percent), and the Governor of East Java Khofifah Indar Parawansa (1.6 percent).
Then, in eighth place and so on, there is the figure of the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the Republic of Indonesia Puan Maharani (1.6 percent), Chairman of the Golkar Party Airlangga Hartarto (1.5 percent), and Minister of SOEs Erick Thohir (1.4 percent).
The Charta Politika survey was held on November 4-12, 2022. The survey uses the face-to-face interview method.
Editor : Fitria Chusna Farisa
'Cenderung akan mengerucut bukan lagi berbicara mengenai tiga nama, spekulasi saya ini akan mengerucut kepada Ganjar dan Anies,' kata Yunarto.