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India’s precarious position in Kashmir


Dec 14, 2008
United Kingdom
Finally, a new cabinet of Pro-Pakistan Taliban members have been installed in Kabul. Looking at the news, TV reports and posts on forums Indian Politicians and intelligence community are certainly panicking and there is somber mood all around. The Indians certainly do have a reason to be somber, the Haqqanis believe in global jihad and hold key positions in Kabul and have clearly expressed their distaste for the Indians.

The US have left the Haqqani Taliban well-armed, whether it was by plan or by accident we have yet to see. The newly militarized and empowered Taliban have now more options to play with and are able to turn in any direction they want. This has clearly panicked India which feels vulnerable and weak. The formidable Pakistan -Taliban-China partnership will no doubt allow a free hand to destabalise and free Kashmir via a re-ignited and well stoked Kashmir insurgency. Pakistan is seeking to revenge the Indian sponsored terrorism in Baluchistan, China is set to reacquire the Indian occupied Chinese territories and the Afghans want revenge on the Indian support of ANA and the consequent crimes committed by them. There is no love lost between China/Pakistan and India and the new war has begun albeit in the background. India has fired the first salvoes by sending into Baluchistan well trained terrorists who have attacked the Pakistan frontier forces.

India's cheap attack on Pakistan through terrorists shows it has a largely weak and ineffective army which was also seen by the poor performance of the Indian trained ANA, the outcome against the Chinese in Ladakh and the devastating Indian loss against Pakistan in the air battle on 26th February 2019. India's present economic decline and it's huge poor morale army has exposed and made it vulnerable. India is set for a repeat of the 1962 humiliating defeat and this could occur within a decade.

A combined insurgency within Kashmir and India and a two-front attack by China and Pakistan could lead to a decisive defeat of the Indians and be as calatamous and speedy as the collapse of Kabul. Occupying Indian soldiers are deeply resented by the native Kashmiris are attacked daily and it is only a matter of time before Indian Muslims join the insurgency. This would exasperate the civil disorder within India and break the unity of the federation. The cycle of Nazi BJP indoctrination, the increasing Indian Military operations and the resulting oppression of the Kashmiris would lead Kashmir to a tipping point. This would force Pakistan act to expedite the Kashmiri independence from Indian occupation.

The Indians will try to put Pakistan on the defensive and after a brief spike the Baluchistan insurgency in Pakistan will subside and Pakistan would be able to focus beyond the borders. Battled hardened and well trained Indian Mujahadeen will return from Afghanistan and flood Kashmir to ignite a Jihad against draconian Indian rule. Taliban will open up their training grounds for Kashmiri freedom fighters and the US supplied arms will flow to the Kashmir battlefield. Modi will react in a predictable way and send more troops in and authorise more atrocities in Kashmir. This will further attract jihadists from across the region creating a refugee crisis in New Delhi and the surrounding region. To preempt this India will try to divide the Taliban against Pakistan and try and buy some of the Taliban members and increase terrorism activities in Pakistan but it will be to no avail.

China will see it’s opportunity and mass the troops on the Indian border threatening an all-out Tibet like invasion. India will have no choice but to divert more forces to battle China across the entire India-China border and it will slowly and surely lose it’s grip on Kashmir. Bangladesh may make opportunistic grabs on disputed territory forcing more Indian forces to the border. Overstretched the Indian army would be unable to fight effectively on 3 fronts and one or more fronts will likely fall or internally would spiral into free for all civil war. Other scenario being as Bangladesh at present is not militarily strong enough to confront India, Pakistan-India border is too heavily fortified so most likely India would lose swathes of Indian territory on the Chinese border.

Due to India’s recreant behaviour in Afghanistan India can forget the blanket unrestricted military support from the West. it’s deceitful return on Western investments and it’s duplicitous economic partnerships, it’s BJP doctrine based on the Nazis has undermined support for India all around. India will receive little favours and would have to make choice between repealing Article 370 , allowing a referendum in Kashmir and having some political stake or losing Kashmir altogether. India’s is certainly in a precarious position and it’s Pakistan’s call as to where this leads to.
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