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India’s future may lie more with Russia and China than with the US, writes RN Bhaskar

tower9

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I don't think that analogy of individual Chinese and Indian in America is fair. Social up bring in India society/Hinduism and especially the well educated do shares many similarities to the values of US corporate elitist dominated society(specifically role of individual spiritual freedom in society) . That's why so many Indian elites do well in corporate america and you can't take away that aspects of share values. US cultural values has taught to hate collectivism/communism, which is deeply engrained in confucism, and that does contribute fear (I fee hate is too strong but they are a lot of hater in America though).

That's really irrelevant. Japan and S Korea are more conformist and confucian than China is, yet they are accepted into the West. Why? Because they are small, rich and advanced nations that have ingratiated themselves to the Western world. So they are the only non-White nations that have achieved honorary White status.

India is simply too big to be assimilated. Look at it this way, the West is ruled by one king, the USA. The US won't tolerate another challenger to its throne. That's why Russia was never assimilated into the West despite the fact that it was ruled by sellout leaders during the 90s who practically begged to be included.

It's also the same reason why China is demonized and will never be included. Because the US is a jealous god. China is simply too big and powerful to be in this club, because it will end up being the top dog.

India, is also too big to be truly assimilated. Also, considering India's level of social development, it will never be truly seen as a real ally or equal among the Western countries, at most, it will be used as a sacrificial lamb like Ukraine is, and any other poor but useful country.

Is that your scientific method of evaluating what general people think? Going to a fringe group populated by a few thousand socially outcast sadistic unemployed incels? Only the lowest of the low people join that site and they have just as bad an opinion about Chinese as they have about Indians, blacks, mexicans, muslims etc etc. You are delusional if you think they fear you and even if they do, it doesnt really prove anything, just search that thread about the Chinese plane crash, they are celebrating, just like they do after every disaster, saying the C word and most of their comments are about yellow skin, small penis, small height etc etc just what i would expect from such a group, i wouldnt exactly call that fear.

In any case, I couldnt care less what they think. As i said, they are all outcasts rejected by society, woman and employers. I also couldn't care less either what general white people think about Indians, we just want their FDI and business, as long as that keeps coming, i really dont care.

Your comparison of world alliances to the alpha male thing is way too simplistic. Even if China were to surpass US today as the worlds biggest economic power, these alliances will remain for several decades if not longer. One of the reasons countries like Japan, Korea joined the alliance is because it is against China, you think they will change alliances just because their enemy China is now more powerful? lmao that makes 0 sense. If anything, that will be a cause to strengthen the alliance, not leave it. As for Europe, well their alliance with US is based on way more than just security. Shared history and race is one of the biggest factors and thats hard to ignore. They wont leave an alliance of white people all of a sudden just because China is more powerful, They have way more common culturally with the US than they have with China. You are delusional if you think all of a sudden Germany, France, Italy, UK etc will abandon the US for China. It will take like 50-100 years for that to happen and it will only happen once race is no longer a factor, rather than what China's GDP is.

There are different levels in the Western alliance. At the core are the Anglophone countries and they are ride or die with one another. The US, Uk, Australia and Canada.

Then there are the Nordic countries, they are the second tier. They will likely stay faithful as well even as staying in this alliance starts to hurt their bottom line, which it will. Just wait and see how these sanctions against Russia turn out a year from now.

The others are up for grabs. I am not saying these US allies will be pro-China, obviously Japan and S Korea will never be pro-China. But many of these other allies will start becoming neutral as the tide shifts.

Then there is the rest of the world, which make up 85% of the global population. Here, China will expand its influence significantly. Once China becomes the most powerful country with the biggest economy and most innovative tech, which will happen in the next 5-10 years. The dominance of the West will become a thing of the past, even if they stick together. Europe is in steep decline and so is American society.

BTW dude 4chan is not as fringe as you think. I've spent plenty of time around White guys and they are racist as **** to the core. Especially suburban and conservative White guys. They just can't voice their real views because of the PC culture being enforced.
 
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ckf

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That's really irrelevant. Japan and S Korea are more conformist and confucian than China is, yet they are accepted into the West. Why? Because they are small, rich and advanced nations that have ingratiated themselves to the Western world. So they are the only non-White nations that have achieved honorary White status.

India is simply too big to be assimilated. Look at it this way, the West is ruled by one king, the USA. The US won't tolerate another challenger to its throne. That's why Russia was never assimilated into the West despite the fact that it was ruled by sellout leaders during the 90s who practically begged to be included.

It's also the same reason why China is demonized and will never be included. Because the US is a jealous god. China is simply too big and powerful to be in this club, because it will end up being the top dog.

India, is also too big to be truly assimilated. Also, considering India's level of social development, it will never be truly seen as a real ally or equal among the Western countries, at most, it will be used as a sacrificial lamb like Ukraine is, and any other poor but useful country.



There are different levels in the Western alliance. At the core are the Anglophone countries and they are ride or die with one another. The US, Uk, Australia and Canada.

Then there are the Nordic countries, they are the second tier. They will likely stay faithful as well even as staying in this alliance starts to hurt their bottom line, which it will. Just wait and see how these sanctions against Russia turn out a year from now.

The others are up for grabs. I am not saying these US allies will be pro-China, obviously Japan and S Korea will never be pro-China. But many of these other allies will start becoming neutral as the tide shifts.

Then there is the rest of the world, which make up 85% of the global population. Here, China will expand its influence significantly. Once China becomes the most powerful country with the biggest economy and most innovative tech, which will happen in the next 5-10 years. The dominance of the West will become a thing of the past, even if they stick together. Europe is in steep decline and so is American society.

BTW dude 4chan is not as fringe as you think. I've spent plenty of time around White guys and they are racist as **** to the core. Especially suburban and conservative White guys. They just can't voice their real views because of the PC culture being enforced.
You forget about Japanese interment camps during ww2 and Los angeles riot in 92 where Korea shop owners were assaulted. America really can't differentiate Asians in general. But in terms of culture, Korea Christians has really embraced America, and that trend seem to gaining hold. Japanese are artificially respected, but Japan is like a colony and nobody care. America is very diverse and dynamic blessed with abundant natural resources + arable farm land, so to write off America's ability to rejuvenate is also quite naïve. In terms of racist bad people and social problems, every society has those.
 

tower9

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You forget about Japanese interment camps during ww2 and Los angeles riot in 92 where Korea shop owners were assaulted. America really can't differentiate Asians in general. But in terms of culture, Korea Christians has really embraced America, and that trend seem to gaining hold. Japanese are artificially respected, but Japan is like a colony and nobody care. America is very diverse and dynamic blessed with abundant natural resources + arable farm land, so to write off America ability to rejuvenate is also quite naïve. In terms of racist bad people and social problems, every society has those.
I’m not writing America off. But the America of the future won’t be like the America of the past. This society is undergoing a profound change in demographics and culture, it won’t be the same country 50 years from
now.

And without a doubt, China will simply become bigger and more powerful even if the US remains relatively powerful. The writing is on the wall.
 

zhxy

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I’m not writing America off. But the America of the future won’t be like the America of the past. This society is undergoing a profound change in demographics and culture, it won’t be the same country 50 years from
now.

And without a doubt, China will simply become bigger and more powerful even if the US remains relatively powerful. The writing is on the wall.

What do you think if the future of Chinese technology corporations (xiaomi, tencent, baidu, BYD...) all have Indian employees and leaders like what happened in the US.

All Chinese athletes are white, black, and mixed-race.

Zhong fei fei.jpg


In the future, China will be a superpower. But it will repeat the same problem as the current EU and US.
 

tower9

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What do you think if the future of Chinese technology corporations (xiaomi, tencent, baidu, BYD...) all have Indian employees and leaders like what happened in the US.

All Chinese athletes are white, black, and mixed-race.

In the future, China will be a superpower. But it will repeat the same problem as the current EU and US.
I think using talents from around the world is fine as long as China’s leadership is not infiltrated by a certain cabal like the US is.
 

ckf

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I’m not writing America off. But the America of the future won’t be like the America of the past. This society is undergoing a profound change in demographics and culture, it won’t be the same country 50 years from
now.

And without a doubt, China will simply become bigger and more powerful even if the US remains relatively powerful. The writing is on the wall.
Let the future play itself out rather than to boast about fait of accomplishment that may never be. Statistically China has a bigger population, but demographics are actually quite bad especially with urbanization and one child policy hangover. US has smaller population but much faster population growth. US still has huge advantage of not having complicated neighbors that China is facing, Russia/India/Vietnam/Koreas/Japan/Phillipine/Taiwan. US is lucky that North America is shared with culturally submissive Canada, and really weak Mexico.
 
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tower9

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Let the future play itself out rather than to boast about fait of accomplishment that may never be. Statistically China has a bigger population, but demographics are actually quite bad especially with urbanization and one child policy hangover. US has smaller population but much faster population growth. US still has huge advantage of not having complicated border neighbors that China is facing, India/Vietnam/Koreas/Japan/Phillipine/Taiwan. US is lucky that North America is shared with culturally submissive Canada, and really weak Mexico.
You would be right if China’s population was 450 million to the US’s 330 million. But China has 4x the population. Simply by modernizing it’s country, educating its population and building infrastructure, it will far exceed the US even if it suffers a demographic crisis in the future.

American society has never truly encountered a true peer power in recent history. Therefore it has not been truly tested. With its society soon undergoing a massive demographic and cultural shift, the lines of friction and division will ONLY grow larger Not less. This means even less capacity to handle stress and less unity during times of crisis, of which there will be many in the coming decades.
 

zhxy

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Currently, China is very strong. India's chance of winning is almost zero.

India should avoid direct conflicts. The most effective solution against China is to destroy her from within. India can encourage Indian citizens to come to China to study, work, marry Chinese women and have many mixed children. ( in the future, the next Chinese generations will have lower IQ and physical strength )

At the same time, all Chinese technology corporations will have Indian employees and leaders (like what happens in the US). India can steal Chinese patents and technology, use Chinese technology to develop India's indigenous industrial system.

The key to success is patience, it's like a wolf in sheep's skin
 
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Hamartia Antidote

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You Indians should feel lucky that it is China, not Russia or USA, that shares border with you. Russia and USA don't have good temper as China does. I guess most Indians don't know how annoying India is as a neighbour. Your government did bad things to neighbour countries and played as victim after being punched.

Who attacked whom in 1969..and on whose soil?

I want to remind you for all the bluster between the US and Russia our soldiers haven't actually taken potshots at each other near the borders.

This is why our armies don't carry any secret boiling vendettas.
 

Hamartia Antidote

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I have a lot of Indian friends, and they are really wonderful people and I am sure India will have its glory days. But to keep talking about India as a beacon of democratic hope and grand alliance with the "West" somehow will further India is nothing further from the truth. The "west" want to use India as a counterweight to China is giving India this media glorification, but as Jaishanker says, India has to serve the interest of its people.

This slave mentality about medical/technical innovations have only come from the west is simply not true. India has had many contributions as well to the human civilization. India is setting its own path to development and that's something to be admire about. Just less boasting and more results would be better received by others.

Russia and China aren't going to win this as there are ~14,000 Indian expats working in Russia, a minuscule number in China, and MILLIONS in the US.

We have already won the soft power war. China and Russia are likely not viewed as friendly as you think to "Indian contributors". Remember some of them are CEO's of US companies...please show that stat in Russia or Chinese companies where they are likely treated as "unequals". I'm quite sure that doesn't go unnoticed.

You can yap all you want about some smokescreen slave mentality but who is really treating them as a low class slave when it comes to the reality of the real world?
 
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India’s future may lie more with Russia and China than with the US, writes RN Bhaskar​


RN Bhaska
June 27, 2022, 08:51 AM IST

In 2009, this author had predicted that India, China and Russia would have to work together. Geo-politics suggested this combination. During the past 15 years, China appears to have understood the geo-political implications of this constellation much better than India has. Some of these realisations sank in gradually. Some accelerated by the Russia-NATO-USA-Ukraine conflict.

Ironically, the country that has accelerated this realisation is the US. It all began because the US planners thought they were smarter than the rest and could corner and then decimate Russia. The US had three objectives – first isolate Russia. Second break the links between Germany and Russia. And the third to scuttle the Nordstream2 pipeline. That would ensure that the US could sell more gas to Europe at higher prices. There was a fourth advantage the US was certain would come its way – that it would be able to sell more arms in case Russia attacked Ukraine just as it expected it to.

2022_06_30Russia_and_the_oil_markets.jpg

The US succeeded in scuttling the Nordstream2 pipeline. But the brunt of the pain was faced by Germany and the rest of the EU, not Russia. In fact, it is surprising that Germany has taken this lying down, because it will be the biggest casualty in this entire crisis that the US has created. The biggest winner is Russia.

Energy markets

First, look at the way the oil and energy markets have changed. Germany used to be the largest market for Russia. But China has just dwarfed it. Russia has also stated that it will reduce gas supplies to the EU in the coming winter months because of technical reasons. One is not sure if this is the permafrost problem that companies like Schlumberger used to handle.

The US ordered these companies out of Russia. Consequently, engineers from China and India are trying to help Russia deal with the permafrost issue which can choke up oil and gas pipelines in the severe Siberian winter. The US lost a vital piece of global business. Other countries depended on Russian hydrocarbons are Italy, the Netherlands, France, and Belgium. You can now appreciate how much the EU will begin to hurt. Plans are afoot to start using coal instead. Goodbye climate control and carbon capture.

Germany saw its trade surplus narrow sharply to €9.7 billion in March 2022 from €20.7 billion a year earlier, as exports to China, the UK and Russia fell while imports continued to rise at a double-digit pace. Exports were up 8.1 per cent YoY to €137.4 billion and imports jumped 20.1 per cent to €127.7 billion. There will be more pain to come.

Wealthier Russia

The loss of European markets hasn’t hurt Russia. Thanks to demand from other countries – notably China and India, it will still make money even if it sells oil and gas at discounted prices. Moreover, Russia and China together control most of the key mineral inputs the world requires. Russia’s land mass is three times that of China and the US. Sanctions against Russia only made global prices go up, and Russia began demanding higher prices in roubles through some friendly countries as well. As a result, while Russia’s current account deficit improved smartly, the US continued to limp along with an increasing trend of deficits.

2022_06_30_Russia_s_current_account_balance.jpg


Consequently, almost the entire western world has become weaker, while Russia and China have emerged stronger. No wonder then that Joseph E Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate in economics, wrote that “the US could lose the new cold war” .

2022_06_30_US_current_account_deficits.jpg

He goes on to add, “The United States appears to have entered a new cold war with both China and Russia. And US leaders’ portrayal of the confrontation as one between democracy and authoritarianism fails the smell test, especially at a time when the same leaders are actively courting a systematic human-rights abuser like Saudi Arabia. Such hypocrisy suggests that it is at least partly global hegemony, not values, that is really at stake.”

Weakening USA

Worse, there are signs that the US may not be able to fund its ambitious plans to remain in the forefront of the information technology world. As Bloomberg reported on 24 June 2022,The US promised chipmakers about $52 billion to boost the industry inside the country. Now, it looks like that money might not arrive—a development that’s already threatening to upend manufacturing plans. . . . . Right now, some of the biggest companies in the industry, including Intel Corp., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. are either planning to build or already building plants in the US, spurred in part by the promise of government incentives.” Some of these plans look less certain now.

In 2009, when this author wrote about Russia, India, and China, it was felt that Germany could be the catalyst. But it appears to have fallen off the map. Now Russia has taken the lead. It is talking of bringing India into its embrace. Indian retail chains are being invited to Russia – the Walmarts will not be missed – and Russian IT firms are making their way into India.

Gold games

Russia’s economic clout got strengthened by Switzerland’s decision to import 3 tonnes of gold from Russia. That represents 2% of world gold imports. According to some sources, gold is the second biggest revenue earner (after oil) for Russia. That, in turn. may have prompted the US to try persuade the G-7 countries to ban the import of gold from Russia.

Such a move could be extremely difficult to implement, because gold is highly fungible, and easily transportable. Moreover, such a ban, if implemented, may only make gold more expensive, which could mean more money for Russia and other gold miners. Moreover, such moves may actually wreck global financial markets further. However, any way you look at the situation, Russia is now wealthier, economically stronger, and even in a more formidable position than it was during the pre-Ukraine-war days.

2022_06_30_Can_Russia_help_India.jpg


Meanwhile India has yet to find its feet. As of May 2022, its trade deficit was revised slightly higher to $20.11 billion in April 2022, compared to a preliminary estimate of $20.07 billion and $15.29 billion a year earlier. Imports jumped 30.97 per cent year-on-year to $60.3 billion, despite discounted oil imports from Russia. And its rupee is weakening against the US dollar. At the rate at which India has been slipping, it won’t be long before it may look to Russia for support.

In the meantime, China too has begun working with India. At the BRICS summit, Xi Jinping was more candid than he has often been. He said “Some countries attempt to expand military alliances to seek absolute security, stoke bloc-based confrontation by coercing other countries into picking sides and pursue unilateral dominance at the expense of others' rights and interests.

"If such dangerous trends are allowed to continue, the world will witness even more turbulence and insecurity . . . . . It is important that BRICS countries support each other on issues concerning core interests, practice true multilateralism, safeguard justice, fairness and solidarity and reject hegemony, bullying and division."

In an effort to improve India-China cultural ties, China even celebrated the Yoga Day with much fanfare. It is ironic that the US which once championed the cause of world trade without barriers, should now be against it. China on the other hand has begun demanding a return to free trade.

So, what should India do?

India should immediately begin identifying the mines that its people could develop and operate in Russia on a revenue sharing basis just as ONGC-OVL does in the oil sector. That will help India achieve three objectives. It improves relations with Russia which could actually help defuse tensions between India and China. It creates thousands of jobs and wealth opportunities. Thirdly, the Russian mining sector is not left exclusively to the Chinese and other Asian countries.

Moscow has begun welcoming foreign investors to its Udokan copper mine in Southeast Siberia. Two of Russia’s largest copper mines are being operated by China. It has welcomed Chinese, South Korean, and Kazakh miners and refiners into the bidding process. There is no reason for India to be missing.

Defence scenario changes

In the coming years, expect a greater sharing of military technology and production between Russia and China. Barely a week ago, China made it clear to the world that it would support Russia in defence as well.

The former has the best missile technologies in the world. The latter has the best stealth technologies aided by quantum computing where it is the global leader. That could give both an edge that many western countries might not be able to match despite the huge military spending that the US makes each year.

Instead of looking to the Agnipath scheme, it should send more of its workforce to Russia and help both its people and Russia out. It will improve the unemployment situation, and will allow India to position itself mor strongly among both the BRICS ad the ASEAN groupings.

The churn has begun. It will get more turbulent as the US tries to reinforce its writ on the world.

But as Stiglitz says, “Of course, America does not want to be dethroned. But it is simply inevitable that China will outstrip the US economically, regardless of what official indicator one uses. Not only is its population four times larger than America’s; its economy also has been growing three times faster for many years (indeed, it already surpassed the US in purchasing-power-parity terms back in 2015). . . . . China has excelled not at delivering lectures but at furnishing poor countries with hard infrastructure. Yes, these countries are often left deeply in debt; but, given Western banks’ own behaviour as creditors in the developing world, the US and others are hardly in a position to point the finger.”

The wheel is spinning rapidly. And India will have to be prepared with more jobs, more exports, and not dream of more Agnipaths.

So basically, Western Europe, India, Turkey are financing the rape, plunder, genocide of the Ukraine? While at the same time egging on Zelensky and screaming at Putin's Russia? Fcukin crocidle tears if you ask me.

What sick world we live in. Talk of double dealing, under hand, two faced and naked lies.

I want to remind you for all the bluster between the US and Russia our soldiers haven't actually taken potshots at each other near the borders.
To be fair you don't have share border with Russia asides the Bering Straits. When you have a living, fractious and contested border things can and do boil over. We got a taste of it when you and Russkies were about to mushroom all of us in 1960s over Cuba.
 

SecularNationalist

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That's true.
If china,Russia, India and Pakistan are in one block with US got completely kicked out of the region it's good for all of us.
But sadly bhartis have already chosen their new master I.e uncle SAM.
 
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China is very strong.
China is 5,000 years civilization and a superpower over much of that time. India is just a product of a British spice trading company and only began to form under the English rulers from 1850s onwards and was birthed by Nehru in 1947. They even built her a shiny new capital in 192o called New Delhi.

India is more British then even trhe Queen.
 

Hamartia Antidote

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So basically, Western Europe, India, Turkey are financing the rape, plunder, genocide of the Ukraine? While at the same time egging on Zelensky and screaming at Putin's Russia? Fcukin crocidle tears if you ask me.

What sick world we live in. Talk of double dealing, under hand, two faced and naked lies.


To be fair you don't have share border with Russia asides the Bering Straits. When you have a living, fractious and contested border things can and do boil over. We got a taste of it when you and Russkies were about to mushroom all of us in 1960s over Cuba.

Well I'm so sorry that apparently there has to be a certain minimum direct border length threshold that has to be crossed in order to have border skirmishes.

Luckily all those US troops in Europe aren't apparently threatening Russia at the border as everyone likes to claim.
 

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