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India’s 8% GDP growth estimate is a joke

Discussion in 'Central & South Asia' started by by78, Mar 5, 2015.

  1. by78

    by78 BANNED

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    India’s 8% GDP growth estimate is a joke – Quartz



    By now, everyone knows that India is growing faster than China, thanks to the revised gross domestic product (GDP) calculations thrown out by Asia’s third largest economy.

    In 2016, the government last week said, India’s economy is expected to grow between 8.1% and 8.5%. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s GDP is projected to grow (pdf) at 6.3% in 2016.

    These high growth numbers are the result of what the Central Statistical Office (CSO), the agency that computes the GDP, industrial growth and consumer price indices among others, did in January. It shifted the reference year for measuring inflation-adjusted growth from 2004-05 to 2011-12. The CSO also included new data sources, classification systems, and items like LED television sets and smartphones to the country’s national accounts. As a result, in 2013-14 the economy grew at 6.9%, rather than 4.7%, the CSO data showed earlier.

    These calculations, however have received a lot of criticism. The revised method has been called “puzzling”, “baffling” and “confusing” by not only investors but also by some of India’s top economists—both in the government and outside.

    To start with, the country’s own chief economic advisor, Arvind Subramanian, said that the revised estimates are puzzling, on Feb. 27, after releasing the Economic Survey 2014-2015.

    But this was not the first time he expressed his confusion.

    On Feb. 3 in an interview to the Business Standard newspaper, he said: “I am puzzled by the new GDP growth numbers. The revised numbers show GDP growth rose from 4.7% to 5.1% for 2012-13 and from 5% to 6.9% for 2013-14. This means acceleration in GDP growth of 1.9 percentage points in 2013-14, just by comparing the new numbers across time.”

    This is “mystifying,” he added, because “these numbers, especially the acceleration in 2013-14, are at odds with other features of the macro economy.”

    Some experts say the revision is a joke.

    Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets and global macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, wrote in a blog for The Times of India, that the “dramatic upward revision of the GDP growth rate is a bad joke, smashing India’s credibility and making its statistics bureau a laughing stock in global financial circles.”

    “Every piece of data—from the tepid increase in corporate revenues to imports, credit, rail freight and auto sales—points to a much lower growth figure, probably closer to the old estimate of 5%,” he added.

    Sharma also wrote that this makes India look bad even compared to China, which many analysts have long suspected of massaging GDP figures to show steady growth.

    “The GDP revisions are a reminder that India faces some of the same issues with iffy data as China does,” journalist and economist Dhiraj Nayyar wrote last month.

    “If India is serious about becoming an economic superpower, it needs to work harder to create a world-class statistical system. Good numbers are welcome. Timely, accurate data is indispensable,” Nayyar explained.

    And experts from all across the spectrum agree that the situation on the ground doesn’t quite mirror the growth described by the new estimates. For instance, the stock of stalled projects (pdf) at the end of December 2014 stood at Rs8.8 lakh crore ($141.3 billion), which is 7% of GDP.

    Stalled projects and stretched capacity in the power, infrastructure and housing sectors have a knock-on effects down the supply chain to small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), Anil Bhardwaj, secretary general of the Federation of Indian Micro and Small & Medium Enterprises, told Reuters.

    “This is a bit perplexing. The feedback we are getting on the ground is not as positive. SMEs are not getting the orders,” Bhardwaj said. “There is an improvement in business sentiment, in the environment, but unfortunately there is no movement on the ground.”

    Even retailers believe the numbers don’t show the correct picture of the business environment in the country.

    Govind Shrikhande, managing director of Stoppers Stop, an Indian retailer said the business sentiment is still subdued.

    “Is it a trick or a treat?” he told Reuters. “I haven’t understood how they are calculating it, but we are not seeing it reflected in business as yet.”

    Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan is also far from convinced.

    “We find it hard to see the economy as rollicking in 2013-14,” Rajan said in early February. “It’s premature to take a strong view based on these GDP numbers.”

    We welcome your comments at ideas.india@qz.com.
     
  2. Anees

    Anees FULL MEMBER

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5dLGopYJNk+FjzEKul+fQDUt7VGT2Ee0dluImfDRu31WytcWJK87eYsfeuZVjiR06M9USwxeDSVcsiK69GAIv1FRjJolKKfJ5uFVTJlAVBJLlA2Ch2t+VaziVV53gsOy0f7+GRtC7MQOg7t8g9bEn1NYpVlKo4rsd2jaOlQUn3NhCjJJIxZBnkVrsbkplsEAuMpBGh1BuanysCUXnJaA1W1gkD8SlVIpGb6QjE+ljpQgZg8HERGobe12/mOp/E1xq806jweit4uNNJlR2ph8KvyGh99Qa29PlluBi6lHCUzMSS215delddR2OLKe4pcDfT10/OnpYakT4fCSuMyRSsL2uqOwuN9QKNItaJMXw2aJVaSJ0VrhSwtcjlbce9GBp5BbUDJcA1mYdQD77fpWmi9jn3a3TDw1XGHI1lB3APtTywIWwkZ+yKlqYZIm4bGdripKox5B5OE/db5qSqgDScOccr+lTVRMRwLjTKfip+IhliDXMOoKKMgLQA4GmI61AYOtTAhlw6HdQfanqZFxTBpeGR8rj3/WpJlTggeOMLouo602RwWXCuHCUFnJy3IABsTbck9P0qmUimc8cFscCiKcq28LA8yQd9TryqvUytTbZ6QMCb5oiArtCx5WEe5W291CLask2dyK22CeOY/uYHfmBZR1dvCo+SKjCOWFSemLZ548N4yl91Iv5kWvWo4mrzZLDCy50VlOVlsQfuuvUeRFrV5+o3RrZZ7mko3FusehfKpxah0bu5F8MygIbHSx8SnQ7g9K61KrHTlHKknFuMsrHoX/DcKY0Clix6moSeWRbyyh7UcSV2WBDfXPIRtZCLJfmcxBI8vOqq0tEMsttoeJVS9CqrhOWXk9Ciq7QtaEjqQB83/pW6xWapjv3ikZzhr4gITF3UYaRQrsFDuzHLlWQi4F16ivU06DlHJ5GtcaZYL+btZj1SaNoYzJCAXlC/6atbKch0J/u1RlbpPdjjXco5RBguCTyYmYyTyhkCt30f7oMWXNcLazDkbG+1a42y4ZklcvlFbxbF4ySKB8RKrRuC0aC2YhRlzsAPPe9YqkYrZG+lKTw2Voqk0gz43u3/AOP9avpGK63CE4mSLi1W5MWkV+IHqtS3FpG/5g3UUZYaRRj28qWoWkf/AJg3QfjTyLBE+MY87elLUPAz9ob7x+aNQYJw1VHTHCgYt6YhwagB4agBc1MQ1noEwaSTNoNvzqUSqTOEGnQdTpUmVOSL7ha2iT+UfjrWaW7Ms35gsn45+lRImm7DcYDoYC1ygvG334thbzU+E+3WqKsN8nZtauqOGQ9rsdnlWIfTF4m83YeEeykn/kKlTjhZKbyr/wBUUbzKtgTa/wCoH5kVMwKLfA/h7jvWC7ZQWttmvYe9vyFczqUY6U+56PoM56pLsSz8WMMgaL/UFwTplygXYSXIuBp6EjXWqrOFTGXwaup3NCMtP/YuOC8d/as3f4hUQKGCJaIMDcMHYsW0I5Eb1u9kjBlPDzsM4pi4WmQQlSqxZRkHhFmuQp2O42rHfZ8M39NnDxWk+xDXGO6VnHIs6BAfH9Srzaw1/Ct9lmM9XbuYb5KUFHvykQ9kOE4p0cwrAYzIAe/Dkqya+FRtYtf1r1FO6VOO+55OtaupLK2NhwngjKkyzoJJMQ1p3WyrkyWXIDqQBYdb3rNWuHOWrJfRt1COkF//AAUkBGxuIMYFslwPCPs/2Kn9unjBD7FDORnabsrhUgklKveKELGA7WGQWQBRvqedUKq5SNDpqKPM5Y8hIYEEb33FTzngey5KPEvmYn4rVBYRhqPU8k2B+lvapMokiHHrZr9anHgjgEJqWQwOWYjY0A0TpjWHO/rTwiOAiHHA76flUNItITmHWlpEVaY1x9r5pYRp1MkbiL8rUYHqYicRkH2vypi1Mnj4q3O1GR5YVBxEnkfikGvBYqGPL5pYE66Q79mvufYaUYKZV2yQKq9BTK9TZDPiEIIv+F9R+dJjjsyfhmOIWwBKjS3Nf5fvL+IrO9nuWSo6llFwGDrodGG/rQZsYZXYWeSBkkUXZSWAHMjwuB1B2I8waTXqb474nEtIsV3l3JuXYs3kxNyPbb2oMlaTctx0LgSnPazJYX2upJI9wfwrFewk4px7HX6NVpxlKM+5WTcVcnLAAik2Wyi5vz6Ac60Uel5p+JXZdcdTcJONFJIJwq5oe8uRmeNVO5sJRdzyuzEn4ql4jLSv7scepVlOWZPcsHcIf3kNz/uIgb3I+pT81XjVwyptvhhs0QcDUg7qw0KnkRf8qp9mTo1p0pqUXuUsvaEozIVD2JUOpsCRvcHa3l0q6HRpVUpQ2z6no6XXPL54lRLiGdy7HxX3H2egU8q9Hb9NpUqPhtZ9Tk1rupUqa8mx/wAPu0NneCZtXYPGx0BNgpU8gdF9a5l3aeDtHgvpXDqS83Jo+0GCxLOGgmdQbAqqglLfaW7qNeeYGs8JRSw0WTjJvKZeRJlUZnLWXxM1he2uYgAAVS3l7Fq4Mnx7GHFMqISIFN2bUGZhsB/B58/Ss9W6jSi8cl1K3lUab4PPu2sDGTvAP3Z8IPIldD/flWjp014elvfn8SnqEGp5XHBnRw+QjMI3I65Tb5roOrBbNowKlN7pMfgozZv761LJRNYGcQTQGrIsiAEVPIYIyaeRYIy1MR16AHd7TyLB1QJiUAKKQy34ZwvOMzaDkOvnSK5zxsXEUCpt8mgpcmyKbiaLzufL9aeA0sr5uMMfpFvzqWklpAnxLnc09KHgRWJ3NGlDPQOC8PVuFd4Prjld79FzBXU/8Rf1Aqiqsm2lHyZBMCbOV5MM1uhFgfm4+KzxeTNdQS3NJheHxvgZnfQq0ro/NTGoW49ctiOdW4NFtH/1ZM1hGtIOWcWI/iAuD8XHxVMXvgpuYLGQ3Ex5kYWvdSNddbaVMxRbTygbsxhsx7w7KLD+YjX4GnvV3UrjyKEScmWnGY7YcqnhtkC25HOtq5FJ5qLJFcjuE8SEy9HAGZf6jyNSr0JU3vw+AawM45ju7jsD438K+XVvYf0qdpbutUS7BFbmTA28q9fGCikl2L0OBqZIKwOICOrHVb2cHUFDo1x+PtXP6jQdSi8crgvtp6Kizx3N7gMbNGB3Mgkj5JJdwB/BIDce968Z9t07VVuegdpq3pvYkxMskv8Aqvcf7ajKnuN29yazVeoN7QRdTskt5MS1c5ybeWbkktgA4dZSLgd0h8K8mYaZj5DYVrVWVFZT8z/JGeVONV4fCDwtZXOTeWy9RSWCu4jwWKbdcrffXQ+/X3rXQv6tLh5XoZq9lSqrdbmH7QcFeEG+q8nGx8j0NejtL2FdbcnnrmxnQfqjNEVvUjI4kLippkWiI1IiJTEdQA41EkdQAZw7CmRgOW5PQVFilLCNUoAAA2GgoMreWUfGMVmbKNl38zUkWRRWE1MkJTAeKAHjQVFjRoOFYrExwSR94FiYElDbc2JubXUEDXWs0574NUM4B48fMroWK2uQHAuDfS2ntpptUdKRCS17M2PD+KWwmIgkIBZZDGQDYll1U728Q/GkqiL6UdEMFRhXDvGRt4j8KV/Nqrit2UXMloLR3ygnoL1M56DeGYbu4lXna5/mbU/nXNrT1zyEnudxEXT/AJx//ItKl9QR5MtigYpXCkqVc5SOjeIDzFja3lXo7WMLmglLsW8kOIxDyNmc3O21gB0A5Vst7SFBeUktiB2trWtvA0PRr0luSH0msjNr2eZTCrKADbK1tNV019vzr5z1enOFdxfB63p8oypJrkOxOLSMXdgOg5n0G5rmwozm8RRsnUhHlgkryyjwDu1JAu31kE6kD7Ol99avjGlSfneX6Lj/ACVSlOa8qwixRQAANgLD2rLJuTyy5YSwLS7DOpDIcRArqVYXUixBqynUlTkpR5IzhGcdMjy7tJwk4eUrup1U+R5eor11ncqvTUu/c8vd2/g1NPYpJBW5GJkLCpogxhpiEoEF48eP1AqEOBkAFSGarheF7uMDmdW/SkZ5vLHY+fIhPPlQRijNMami0bUgFFAD0pZA1f8Ah3wNMZjFikNkVWkYA2L5bAID7362BprDDg0PEe0HDUxqPHAwihzrJEsaqJZUYCJrE2I1c66+BaTjHJKLlgvO3+Ew8sOHxsQA77KLWA7xWQujMv3ltv5+lV3EVpySot6sGMrmPk3ojhGSUN9lrg9AzWsfe1qthLsZbmDcdi0nUkC3Jlax+1lN8t+W1TksrBzkWeGxAdQw9wdwRuCOtcycHF7g0MxepROrZj6J4r/OUe9OG2WOJSdpobSK/wB5Sp9V1H4E/Fdno9XdwJQZTV6FFolNgRwjKSvLceh5VXBadiRODUxl92UiVjICDfwm4Zl6gjQ+QryH/wAi1U5Kce53Ok4lmLNNFgo1Nwi3+9a5+TrXlZXFSSw3sdxUYJ5wEVSWHVLJHB1RGJQM6gDEf4hp4oj/AAt+Yr0PRX5JfKOJ1ZeaL+TEOK7iZxWQMKsRBkZFTICUCDeIDUelVxGgjgmFzPc7Lr78hUiM5YWDRk0zOUPF8RdrchQlksiitJqZMikmtSbDAOZT1qOQDOHTKG/eC6nc3II8xaoy1NbE44zua3h8DQMHhkKsCGVtypGxB0uPI9ayePJM0eDFkeM73ESyLHH30xKvM/7uNQTtfQLr0/PWlUuowWurLCfBOnbyqPRTjl9w7i2Mxyor4qMtFEoUFXitEpsPDGgHlrVcb6lcPRGe/phosnZ1qC1yht8ocDeoMZzrcEHY0J4E1lYIzxkIQkjKp2vZnZmG1kXXUW1rXFZWTmyo+bA1OIsjh8OyTNNIU7jxxurqouWVxoB1vbXy0rrRp6NU3hLv7E420ptQju+MFrwvHOsxhxMeSZlzKwYMsij7Knlbp61i8lSnrpPKX4oV1aVLd6Zom7TxXhB+66n58J/7q09Ok1XRmgZYmvXIuEpgMfcH2+ajLZpkiYUwLnsxLacD7ysPf6v6GvPf/IaSlbavQ6nSp6a2PU2deBPUi0AdQAPHJq9+TfgQD/WrZRyo47oipc5CKqJCUAUnaPhSz93mJAViCR0bb8bfNdKwunR1JLlfoYr22VbGTH9qOzww+VlYsrEg33B9q7VjffaMprDRx72z8DDTymZiQV1Ec1kLVNEGMpkSxxi3IquIcF/gMPkQDmdT61Mok8sdiZsqk/3egSRlppLkmpIuSIzKKeUPANK1zUGIZSAmjFNEkbjh9+6S++UX+K5lVrWzfD6UOwYyY3DspILsVexIDKFNgw51Rc4lbTT7LKLrVuNzBru9/wAC17eLm/ZkP0tKcy3NmstxfrWDpG0pvukdDq+8YLtkqIUbEzCCFwoC5pZBY5QDbKv8V/70ro1qsben4k1l8Jev+Dm0KUrip4cXj1f97h6dl42aSON8VHJHa0zklJCRy0swHO1vesX/AJKrFRnNRafZco3Lp1OTlCOpNd3wwrsVgYQHfKzYhGMc0kliRIPqEfReV9DVPU61VtJvyNZSXp7+5d02jSSbx508Nv174KTjU0S4tTh86YgYqzvKQIbkEOLk9CPO3nat1tCrK2arYcNOyX1exhuJ0o3KdHKnq3b+n3C8Uy8Rx4SOQrFh4yS6GzOSwDZG6aqL+R6iqqeuwtdcl5pPh9vktqqF/daE/LFcrv8ABHx3hUESyr32IjdEzxd45MUjAZrRk/Ub2BG99harLS9uZShJKLWcPHK+f19Cq5sbWmpLeLSys8P49f1KZ8QRFnI1yXt52r2rqNUtfscMv07JxrhxLM08khVWbuTqua30JbUAHX0NhyrxU+s3FS4cYNJb/Vn+rPY9DHpdKNDXPU3t9P7Ffh+z6zYhosPOWw4VJGcEMyFrgRA9dCfL130y6tXo22aq8zeEvjv8GeHT6dWu40peTCbfz2+Q8dlo5BKIDiYpYjlDS3ySnXUXHiXQi420NqzR6xcUZRlOSalvs91+f6l76ZSqKSp6k4+vDB+E8DeSE4jEGUAXKQQ6O2Xwm/Mkm+n41ov+rynVVGGPdvgpten/APqdapn2UeSwkz4JI8TG8xw7FO+gmJZo1ewzLfVSCbWrmrTdylRmo61nEo8PHr8m1qVrGNaLeh4zGXKybKuIdg6gADFmzHoyqfdWAP4MK1UlmK9m/wA0UzeH8/yH1lLjqAENMDI/4hSju415lifYC39a7fRo+aUjk9WktMUefSV6KJ59g7mrUVsZTIl5whS762IUa6fA/CpYS4KpMvKgVlH2ixGgUHzNIsgjOk0ExKAJIYizBRuTYepobwNLJJNhHQ2YEH+9jzpRafA3Frks+DcLLkM2iD/3eQqutVUVhcltOnnc1QFc42A+ElX9si7ySOJIR3hLtlzlgVyrfSo3Cl9nkoxbcttu3yWWzj9oi5SSUd9+5c9pXw+JWPLjYY2jYsDnjbcWOmYVzbLx7eUm6UmmvR/wdK98G4UUqsU0/VfyDYTiOEwUsUKMpUxESzKAfESpjZ2X/n6Bl5VbUoXN3TlUknnOyfp3x+Xzh9yunXtrSpGnFrGN379s/n+K7BfFZ1z99/mPdwkX7tDG5Nh/0zqfaxqmhCWnw/AzL1eV+P8AtFteUdXiePiPosP8P9MrOwPFEQyxyuUeR+9RpCFMgbS9zpm0v71q6rbTlplBZSWHjt/gzdKuYR1Rm8NvKz3/AMlb2pwkHfkxzd68suZ4hlZUS3iJYfavt/d+h0iVaajTlDEUsZ9f6jF1KFGM3KE8tvjsifhWJH7Qc0qYd44EXDNZUiKKSXSRdmzEknnud7VPq9GUEoqOqLe/r7NfAunzjrbctMktn290/k0XaHicDYNlleJ3eOypGwfNIR4THzsGsQbVwbO3rK5TpqSSfdY29/u7HZu7ii7ZqbTbXZ539vvMrxDg2JTDaxnSMFiCpIAALXF73tevfz1Kjjvg8ng1nAcdGoCpiYng7oGNXdRNHt4GHNQOuo21r59dUZyy5U2p53wvK/f5/J8nrbWtCOIqonDG2X5l7fH5rgBw3aTDJjZQGURyLGDKPoMyZr+LbUMBf+Gr52FxO1i2nlN7d8PH8cFEL6hC6kk9mlv2ys/zyP4tOqM0p4kVjIJWJO7ZrnYIRe4v5e/OlQg5JQ8DMu7eUvv/ANjrzjFufj+X0WG/u/0J2W47HJhhA8vczKmTUhW/hdC2jG1qd/ZVKVw6ihqi3n/D9AsbynUoKnKWmS2/hrJW8TQsYoDjGxbvMmaNQoTu1N27zLe1rdfbnWig1FSq+F4aUXv3z7Z/gzVk5ONLxdbbW3bHvj+T0KvOHoBCafIAHGoyYyy/Ul2HmLaj4/KtNpJKpplw9ii4i3DK5QbDIGUMNiAR7i9Z5xcZOL7F0XlJj6iMQ0xmJ7c4FzaUnS+UL0GtjfnevQ9KrQw6a55ycPqlKX/I/gxLxnoa7iOIwdoz0PxVqK2MyHofg0xGr4bhu7QA7nU/0FNszSeQhvKoiKfGcKeQ3uPOkWKSQ1OzfV/woDWSr2bTmxoFrJV4GieJLll1F+ZGtqi90SjUwyxdFkXYEEc9bX/rXPy4M6KxJDsMfCNLWFrdCNCKUuSS4JRUCRHLCj2zKrW2uAbdd6kpSjwJpPkj/wAvi/2k/wDSv6U/En6sWiPoRyYdEBCooDK1xYakDS/Xc1JSlJ5bE4xWyQ+Dh0S2PdrcAa2G9DqSfcShFdjuJohUF1BAZNxyzAH8KnRb1YI1lmJXYaMKNFAvqbC2+tq9JQgowRhGMgc+IAgXGovr1FEoKo9+BllgcUsZQiCElGvnCZHPhK2LDTnfYbCqY2mietMnq2xg0adpoSpLZkNjowvc22DC4rXqwtxZRikwcZA8Cn0A39qiqNNrhEScRLbLlFulhb4qzTHGMbAMXBR/cX4qp0YdkMVsGpUhgGte1xcj3quVNKLzuSwbqHs/AYlCxqhsDmQAG9uZ5+9fPat9WhWlvlZ4Z62nZ0XSWFj4JMPw0g2Je33kkcD3Rjp7XqupcxlukvhxX6k4UJLZt/cwpeGJe7F3ttndmA9tqodzPGEkvhYLVRjnLbfyw21Zy4FwnhJj5DVP5Ty9tvirqvnSn68/P+SuHlen8AqqCwQ0xmS7X4wMyxg/Tq3qdAK9B0i3aTqPucLq1dbU0ZhhXeOCRlKYsjMlMRcE1JmYSogCcTchBYsFzL3jLqyx/aZfOlLOHp5LKai5LVwX8nZPD9wZI5Jz+7Lq4kuzDLmGlra+1ecj1W5VXRJLnDWOO3qenl0q2dLXHPGV/cEXAezmGxECS95O5YeImQghh9QsByPrU7vqV1RquDSX8ELTptrWpKay/wCQHgvCIZcRiIXfEnuSQuZwoCg2JYjne9vKr7q9uKdGnUjp83zz7f3kz21jbzrVKbz5fj+/4JuAdnIcQrOmJnMfeMAoOVhb77Ea3FjsND1qu76hWoNRlBZxzyvuLbTp9GsnKM3jPHH4lFh8UY3lADukcjqXIZvCpspdgNDYb10sKUYt4TaW38HN3jKSSbSb3/kIxfEioR1ZCrHRRclhtppf8NKI00200N1NskkXEED2YNGHAIzqUBPMi/laoODlHKw8em5LVpeHlfOxI3GYtbEtbcqrEAdSbbUvBl3H4sewPNxONmTUhTc5mBUEabE77VONNpMg6ibQR/m6WJAkZRu4Rio9TUPDecNrPpnckprGUnj1xsSYp1khYqQykXBHlr/Sp0lpqJMUsOOUA4SCXEMUw65raNIbiNPVuZ8hXVveqUbaG73/ALwv6im3tKteWIL7+w3ieBlw8vdO3gul8R3bZEDb35G16yW/V3VoOUV5t8LKzsW17KVGrok9tvNh4WS07Sdm0wuHMwmldwyAXYZTc6+EDa1+dc2y6xcV7hRey39f7+RtvOm0rehrTbe3wUeOx+VT4WViPDnUrfzF9969M76nKL8N5ZxpQlH6lgPxvD8ImHMiYt5JsoIyEWzfxIFui+p/SvO0r6+lXxKOmOe/+8P7kdSpbWkaLlGbcvb+MbfeV0OMbUAGSwBbICbXHMivQSvFSaUmjmRhKXCyEw45SbEMptezAjQ7H0qyF5Tn3DS1yTSYhAt2cAHS++/kNTUa1eOh6Xlk4rffg1sfbHCKouzhbeFjG9mt0Nq8HU6ZcTm2kufVHpodSt4xSbf4Mfh+2OHIYy54CoBCyrlZ1bZkUXJqufS6ya0Yln0ey+Scep0WnrzHHqt38Dl7YYe4zCVFOgkeNgh96H0uvjbDfonuC6nR75S9WngN4jx/DwqpeQHOAUC+MuDsVC8j12rPRsq1VtRjxznbBfWvKNJJyfPGN8gKdpoJGUDPHINVWVDGXHNQTobjYX3tWn7BVgm3hx7tPOCiN/Sm0t0+2VjIsnbDDAnL3jqujOkbMinzb9KS6XXa3wn6N7jfUqCe2WvVLYcnaOOVH7rMGQHOHUqYx1IO5PKhWE4TWvh8Y3yNX0Jxejlc52wY95CdSbk6k9SeZr1NOKjFJHl6snKTbIjVpUNNMTG3oEWlqkZzqQHMoIIOx0PoaALrsHiyYXgY+KByo842uyH8x7CvLdYoaKymuJfqj1/R6/iUND5j+jDsLioMPNHgoxlzI8gF9ASxOX1PjPkFFZp06tenK5k84aX+f0NUKlKjUjbRWMpv+/mB9sGWCGVo1AmxRSK/NtCLnpZc2vmKv6bGVerGMn5YZf8AfvM/UpQoUZzj9U9v79wP/h1EFjnUbLOQPZVFW9b/AOWPx+7Kuh/8Mvn9kG9k+Kd8cQndogimYDILAhi2ra6tcG586zX9v4WiWpvUu/tj8jTYXHiucdKWl9vf9wTsjweNZ8VJYFlxDxxiw/dqLN4Ry+u3tV3ULmcqVOGdnFN+743/AAKrC2hGrUnjdSaXsudvxIsVxLDNh5ocTilmYlyD3ZRkNtFVddQb6+dqlChXVaNSjTcVt3zn/aITr0HRlTrVFJ79sY/0WfBsUG4eshjS3cuTGoyqwUMLW6ED8ay3FNq8cFJ/Ut+++P0NVvUTs9biuHt2KR+NQ498Nh+5dVL5yWChbRIxyIQdQTYHbSt6tKtlGpW1JvGNvdrdmB3VK8lTo6WlnO/snsi94jjUgmjz4hYYxGR3GTRtwGDja2mluXnXPo0p1qUtNNyln6s8fcdCtVhRqx1TUY4+nHP3mSlaJsRiP2cgxMinQWUSMDcKOhr0FsqqpQ8b6l+OPc4Nw6Tqy8L6f3LvsZmjlkgD5oljSSMZVGXvSWOo1O/OsnXreEHGa5ff7jb0arN6qbey4KX/ABC4rKJZIO8tEUjPd5V8RuD9VrjUX35VZ0e1oukqzXmWfX4+OCnq1zVVR0s+XC2/u5qu1mO7jCiTIjlWjsrgkA3Gtuo5VyLCl4tfRlrKfB1b+r4VDXhPDXIP20Al4ezkDaORb65SWXY+jEe9WdNzTvFFP1X6/wAEOopVLRyx6P8AQfJKH4WzhVTNhWOVBlUEob2HIVFRcb5RbbxJbvnkbkpWLkklmL444Iew7IcGI4z3cmVi+gzhmJyy2I8Qtax1GluVT6mpq51z3jtj025Xt7/iQ6a4O20Q2l39d+/v/UUnawTCfDrNkJVZMsy6d9tcMv2SN7ajxadB1Ok+E4zdPPK8r7ff3z+xzeqeKpQVTHD3Xf7u2P3HdnYE/bIhKM2aFnhU+IB87XYryOVdD5daj1Gc/Ak4PGJb/GP5JWEIePFTWcxyvnJpI8W8WIxD4iZBBZO6uyixA8QC73/PSuQ6calGEaUXr3zs/wBTqqpKnWnKrJaNsboreyqJisRiMW3jtJkhzfYRRoQORII9Netab5zt6MLdbbZeO7M1ioXFadd774Xsiw4FxJp5MXBOoPdSlQLCzRsWCgjnov8A7qz3VCNGFKrSf1L81g0WtaVadWlUXD/JkfZjgkcLTstiwldEY+IxoACEHuxv10qV7d1KqhF8YTfbL9SNlawpObXOWl3wvQq+KcSw0mCeObEriJArsj5CrZ9SlgNtbD0NaqFC4hcqdOm4R2TWc7d/5M1avQnbOFSopS3aeMb9i84NlfBomHfuWVFB8ILRuLFg6NzJve+97871hucwuXKqtSbfflez/uODbb4nbqNJ6Wku3D91/c8mexGKnXHuGw+eRsMECxHwSDNfvmLfSBa1j5C/XowhSdqnGeIqWcvlf/lY5OfOdVXTUoZk44wuH778FTHJe6lSjobOjaFT+ldum1KKaeUcWompNNYYpqzBA6mIS1GBFhTM51ACikBHBPJh5xPEoe6FJIy2XMNwQeoNqyXlpG5p6G8d0zbY3jtp6sZ9gXEJNJI2JNln7xXRb3CqmgjJ56b9adO1hCh4PbGPx7hUvZzuPG75DMdi5cVKkkqCJY1IRAwc5m3cke3xVdlZRtotJ5b7ll/fu6a2wkO4JxibCRd0MMsniZjIJQuck/UwIJvaw9qz3fS/tFTW549sZ/dGmz6srenoUPzx+zO4VxmXDmUjCKe9kMhyy5ct/sm4N7anTrRcdLdZRTm/Kscf6Hb9WjRcmofU88/4Y3CcXxMc8k6xIFlILwZzckC2cPsGP9jnUqnS4ToxpylvHh/tj0I0+rShWlUjHaXK/vf7h3E+NSTB0jwscLTKVklYqzMtvELqL313N6qpdO8FqVSbko7pdv1LavUlWTjTgk5cvv8AoF4btLMkaxjBKQqhfDKoUgC2ikHSs8+mwnNz8V7vPG/45NMOpyhBQ8JcY52/QposA4vIuWKQS97Gq/TH/B6G2v8AYrotxcdEvMsYeeX7nOSkpa47POVjhFzL2jldQJcCkjqQQxdCmb7wDAlfm9c+PTYxbcKrSftv8bM6MupSlFKdJNr32+eALDxuXkllK95KQWC3CqFFlA9q3RUYRUIcL1MEpSnJzny/QDwfEpcNN3qqrgoYihOXMsZCghuTCw+a2XViryilw+xTbXjtqzaWfVBHFu1LT2Aw8YXMhcOwZpAjBglwBYXFY7bokqWW574eO2MrGe+5suOqeLtoWNs53zh5wdxrtQ+JhaI4ZRexzGQtYqQdAoB5Eb86Vr0WVCqpqf6fywueqePTcHD8/wDCJsd2okmhaH9i0Zct8zFR90gBb6aHflSo9DnTqqop8PPH+f2JVereJSdPw+Vjn/AdBxvEtF3a8O8OTJYtlTLa1srKNLcr0v8A6/VdTXrec5zjf8ckv/L/APr0eGsYxzt+GBvDnxUSwiTAiRoFKpKsqBgpFgoHkNNelXV+h1pueiWFLdrCaz+JVQ6koKOqGXHZPPYi45hcTPbESxrGsQISENnbx6M7MNOS/HzptOlO0pSect8lF3eSuZptYS4QfwuMRcQyXVf/ANSMANu9j9g8rW1HOx9vP3cvEttWM+d/d8nXtVoutOceRff8FjhcPG0hL4ERnxM0rrhyCefiUkm9zrWOpOcYJRrZ7JJyNcIU5TblSx7tRKHBu64qd+Hxo8ICCRAQiSSWP+i30gge2vmK31FB0IRu21LfD5aXv3MFNzVecrRJx2yuE37diy/aMY5busGmHdwM88jo22guFF2IG171m0WsEvEquSXEUn+/HuaddzJvRSUW+ZNr9uSLC8LxWCJMNsUsnilR2Eb96fqdGOlj53O2+9SncW92kqnka2TW6x2TIwt7i1eafnT3abw892iPGYXFYlZI0wsWFWT/AFJWKM7+VkH4mpU6lvQcZyqObXCWcL8SNSncV04xpqCfLeG3+A5MZioj3smADSLHkaZZku4WxuVHLS/UUOlb1F4cK2E3lJxewKpcU3rlRy8YbUluV0HHcSs7YholZZECd0rWKKpLKcx0OrNf15V0JdKhKgqcZcPOfX12MEep1I1nUlHlYx6Y9wGVpJZZJ5FCNJlsgN8qqLAE8z/flXRtaCoUlTTzg59zXdeo6j2yIUrQUZGlaAEpAHUzOKKAFpAJQwFqIhaYHGmA2mMWkMhk+tPU/wDaaprfSaLf6goVgOgONAI6mBDjGIU26gfJAq6gk6iTK6rxBtB0MYEkIsLd5a1htkevRxilhHGpt6zSKgGwHwKvwbB6imB16AHCgY6gYNxA/un/AJT+VVVfoY0BNw+PE4WNplDsIwQxJDA2GzAg186nXqUbmSpvCbPVKhTrUE6izhGe4fwqOWQJIHZL/SZJSND/ADVurXE6cNUMJ/C/gwUbeFSemeWvl/ybnDYVIlCRqEUbKosK4E6kqktU3lndp04046YrCJhUCZ1AjqBjHF9KlF4FJZRgwNx0ZgPQMQK9zQeaa+DxNb/kZE9XFDA5DrTYIaTSAbTEf//Z
     
  3. GURU DUTT

    GURU DUTT BANNED

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    8% or 7.5% is still better than anything in past at least we have set a goal to achive on to instead of making conspiracy theories and begging from every one and any one ;)
     
  4. Ryuzaki

    Ryuzaki SENIOR MEMBER

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    Itna obsession?India must be doing something right.Jai Hind.
     
  5. Skull and Bones

    Skull and Bones ELITE MEMBER

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    It's not bad to chuckle at jokes every now and then, rather than loosing sleep over it.
     
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    Indian_Patriot FULL MEMBER

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    8% is a joke, we will be growing at 10% in 3 years time. :cheers:
     
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    I think what the govt did was right actually. 2004 base year in 2014 don't make any sense. We would have had to shift he base anyway.
     
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    New method to calculate GDP gets RBI pat
    Thumbs-up for consolidation map but will watch action; sceptical on CSO's revised growth estimate painting economy as robust


    BS Reporter | Mumbai
    March 5, 2015
    Last Updated at 00:30 IST
    In its first comments on the Union Budget for 2015-16, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gave a thumbs-up for the steps announced by the government on fiscal consolidation, with a rider that the proof of a pudding was in the eating.

    It praised the Central Statistics Office (CSO) for updating the methodology in estimating Gross Domestic Product (GDP), on par with international best practices. However, RBI clearly differed with the inference drawn from the revised estimate, showing a "robust economy".

    The picture it presents of a robust economy, with growth having picked up significantly over three years, is at odds with still-low direct measures of growth, RBI said.

    CSO has estimated 4.9 per cent growth for 2012-13, as against 4.5 per cent by the older method. By the revised method, the economy grew 6.9 per cent in 2013-14, as against 4.7 per cent earlier.

    The current reading on production, credit expansion, imports and capacity utilisation, as well as with anecdotal evidence on the state of the economic cycle, is lower than the CSO estimates. RBI said, nevertheless, the picture of a steadily recovering economy appears right.

    'Well begun'

    Complimenting the intent for getting the fiscal house in order, RBI said there were important and valuable structural reforms embedded in the Budget. These would help improve supply over the medium term.

    In the short run, however, postponement of fiscal consolidation to the three per cent of GDP target by one year will add to aggregate demand, it said.

    At a time of accelerating economic recovery, postponement of fiscal consolidation could be a source for concern for demand management, especially with large borrowings intended for public sector enterprises.

    Mitigating factors

    Demand management during a phase of rapid economic recovery is a challenge. This could be addressed by fiscal discipline, laced with a candid picture about the government books. RBI said the government had emphasised a desire to clean up legacy issues which gave a misleading picture of the true extent of fiscal rectitude. It has also moderated the optimism in earlier projections.

    The true extent of fiscal consolidation might be higher than in the headline numbers. Also, the government is transferring a significantly larger amount to the states, without entirely devolving the responsibility for funding of central schemes. This would help to reduce the deficits in state government budgets and also a lower general fiscal deficit.

    With lower international energy prices, the government has shifted focus to spending money. The thrust is on spending on infrastructure than on subsidies. The government also articulated better targeting and reduction in subsidies through direct transfer.

    The government and RBI have signed a memorandum setting out clear inflation objectives for the latter. This makes explicit what was implicit before - that the government and RBI have common objectives and fiscal and monetary policy will work in a complementary way.

    Performance is key

    In sum, then, the government intends to compensate for the delay in fiscal consolidation with a commitment to an improvement in the quality of adjustment.

    Of course, all these mitigating factors have a fair component of intent. The realised net fiscal impulse will depend on both central and state government actions, RBI added.