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Featured Indian experts are wondering why New Delhi has been sidelined in Afghanistan

Myth_buster_1

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101% true… let me tell you how Pakistan and its intelligence agency measurably failed…

1. RAW have killed 70,000+ Pakistanis without a war
2. They have sucessfully opened another front from the west.
3. They have sucessfully managed groups in A-Tan including Govts and NDS.
They have sucessfully created anti-Pakism in 2 generations through books, mags, news and different type of literature.
4. They have sucessfully crippled Pakistan’s economy through terrorism.
5. Whenever they want, they sucessfully kill anyone in Pakistan including Chinese.
6. They sucessfully diverted entire Pakistan aggressive posture and doctrine to defense doctrine.
7. They sucessfully created anti Pak regimes and players around Pakistan.
8. They sucessfully developed trrrorism training hubs in A-Tan.

WTF ISI and Pak doing in past 20 years????

now after 2 decades, they are sidelined because of geopolitical change but they sucessfully achieved many things esp literally bankcrupt Pak…financially to economically… they have sucessfully bought politicianslike Nawaz Sharif, Altaf Hussain, Achakzai etc

so anyone explain how the **** we won against RAW and India????

Some sayingoh they’re loosing investments in A-Tan. Yes they’re loosing but they already done enough damage toPakistan from A-Z front..
Even though you have really strong points but the reason why India was able to achieve this was because of "geopolitical change" that was in India's favor. 2005 - 2015 was the high time when even a bug accused of terr was carpet bombed.. India had backing of many super powers and all what Pak could do was just watch even though they were aware of whats going on...
Pakistan's 2 biggest foreigner policy failures are Kashmir and involving in Palestine issue. Pakistan should have smelled the reality long time ago that their is no way India is just simply going to hand over their part of kashmir back to pak and should have made a deal that our kas is ours and yours is yours and stop the fight.... same thing with Palestine, pak should have minded their own business big time. Now those same arab nations that pakistan fought for against Israel and now they are the one doing trade and other businesses while backward pak cant even get pass this mentality "we dont recognize" isreal. Had Pakistan did not provoke Israel, Pak's situation would have improved by big amount.
Seriously, pakistan is the dumbes sh1t nation in the world with policy makers who have a brain size of a peanut.
 

Dalit

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They simply have no connection to the region. There influence is in South Asia that's it.
Pakistan shares land borders with Afghanistan, cultural and religious ties. Aside Afghans no one else knows the region better.
The Americans and NATO countries imported the Hindustanis into Afghanistan.
 

PakFactor

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Even though you have really strong points but the reason why India was able to achieve this was because of "geopolitical change" that was in India's favor. 2005 - 2015 was the high time when even a bug accused of terr was carpet bombed.. India had backing of many super powers and all what Pak could do was just watch even though they were aware of whats going on...
Pakistan's 2 biggest foreigner policy failures are Kashmir and involving in Palestine issue. Pakistan should have smelled the reality long time ago that their is no way India is just simply going to hand over their part of kashmir back to pak and should have made a deal that our kas is ours and yours is yours and stop the fight.... same thing with Palestine, pak should have minded their own business big time. Now those same arab nations that pakistan fought for against Israel and now they are the one doing trade and other businesses while backward pak cant even get pass this mentality "we dont recognize" isreal. Had Pakistan did not provoke Israel, Pak's situation would have improved by big amount.
Seriously, pakistan is the dumbes sh1t nation in the world with policy makers who have a brain size of a peanut.
For Pakistan from very beginning we have inept Foreign Policy advisors and consultants no think tanks to learn from, and even after we’ve established them we don’t follow them as those who lead such institutions in the federal government are looking after personal interests of their own only.

A thorough study of Arab culture and politics would’ve revealed they’ve from the very beginning from their birth have been a treacherous group of people.
 

Deltadart

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101% true… let me tell you how Pakistan and its intelligence agency measurably failed…

1. RAW have killed 70,000+ Pakistanis without a war
2. They have sucessfully opened another front from the west.
3. They have sucessfully managed groups in A-Tan including Govts and NDS.
They have sucessfully created anti-Pakism in 2 generations through books, mags, news and different type of literature.
4. They have sucessfully crippled Pakistan’s economy through terrorism.
5. Whenever they want, they sucessfully kill anyone in Pakistan including Chinese.
6. They sucessfully diverted entire Pakistan aggressive posture and doctrine to defense doctrine.
7. They sucessfully created anti Pak regimes and players around Pakistan.
8. They sucessfully developed trrrorism training hubs in A-Tan.

WTF ISI and Pak doing in past 20 years????

now after 2 decades, they are sidelined because of geopolitical change but they sucessfully achieved many things esp literally bankcrupt Pak…financially to economically… they have sucessfully bought politicianslike Nawaz Sharif, Altaf Hussain, Achakzai etc

so anyone explain how the **** we won against RAW and India????

Some sayingoh they’re loosing investments in A-Tan. Yes they’re loosing but they already done enough damage toPakistan from A-Z front..
You are spot on.
We keep gloating over the #1 rating for ISI, while RAW thugs have done some serious damage to Pakistan as you have outlined in your post.
Indians don't play around when it comes to Pakistan, they simply want to destroy us, or morph us into pathetic little fiefdoms that will ensure Hindu supremacy over us for Centuries, and they can also avenge their almost one thousand years of humiliation at the hands of muslims, as they see it.
We keep begging for aman ki asha from our mortal enemy, while the enemy is busy digging our graves. Are we ever going to wake up to this reality?
 
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imadul

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There’s a new Russia-Pakistan axis and Quad to tackle the Afghanistan crisis. India still doesn’t know what to do about them.

Indian experts are struggling to understand how their country has suddenly become sidelined in Afghanistan. Regional processes are nowadays rapidly moving along a trajectory that doesn’t appear to be in alignment with India’s interests. Examples of this include the Pakistani-Russian rapprochement, particularly its manifestation through close political coordination on the Afghan peace process and improved economic-energy connectivity, as well as the US’ recent decision to establish a new quadrilateral framework between itself, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan. Without understanding the reasons behind these developments, India will have difficulty formulating the appropriate policies for defending its interests.

Jyoti Malhotra, ThePrint’s consulting editor, published a column Tuesday titled “India alone on Afghan chessboard as US, Russia pick Pakistan. Here’s what Delhi can do”. She questioned why all of this is happening and proposed two solutions for how India should respond to it. She correctly identified the top two trends – Pakistan-Russia axis and a new Quad –that are most powerfully reshaping the regional situation but didn’t provide an explanation for what’s driving them. That’s to be expected since this is so new for Indian experts. Pertinent developments defied their predictions and thus compel them to modify their analytical models in light of these unforeseen moves.

As an American who’s been living, working, and studying in Moscow for the past eight years, during which time I’ve closely followed the improvement of Pakistani-Russian relations over the last half-decade and am even finishing up my PhD on the topic at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO, run by the Russian Foreign Ministry), I hope that I can provide some clarity about why all of this is happening and thus help answer the questions that Indian experts have. In my personal understanding of everything, Pakistan, Russia, and the US are all practising their own version of what India describes as multi-alignment whereby they are pragmatically diversifying their foreign partners.

Geo-economics over geopolitics
The difference between India’s multi-alignment and theirs is that New Delhi seems to perceive everything through the prism of geopolitics whereas Russia, Pakistan and the US have eventually come to embrace the geo-economic perspective instead. In practical terms, this refers to the new geo-economic grand strategy that Pakistan’s political, diplomatic and military leaders jointly unveiled during the inaugural Islamabad Security Dialogue in March, Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) vision, and the new quadrilateral framework that the US has established between itself, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan. I’ve published prior analyses about each of them that I’ll now list below so that intrepid readers can review them at their leisure if interested:

To summarise, Pakistan’s and Russia’s grand strategies are complementary, with each respective vision converging in Afghanistan. February’s agreement between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan to build a trilateral railway that can casually be referred to as PAKAFUZ, after the first letters of each participant’s name, was a game-changer since it created a tangible project through which Pakistani-Russian connectivity interests can finally merge. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s endorsement of Central Asia-South Asia connectivity at last week’s topical conference in Tashkent speaks to his country’s interests in this vision. As for the US, it realised that it too could utilise PAKAFUZ to expand its regional economic influence, ergo the “New Quad”.

The driving force behind these developments is that each of these three countries is beginning to formulate their regional policies through the perspective of geo-economics. The US’ speculative geopolitical plots in Afghanistan failed despite two decades of trying, which explains why it’s belatedly transitioning to geo-economic ones. Otherwise, the US presumably would have preferred to keep trying to advance its geopolitical goals if it felt that there was any credible chance left that they could succeed. Another important point is that rivals Russia and the US tacitly agree that Pakistan is the most important actor with respect to the Afghan peace process and one of the most geostrategically positioned states in the 21st century.

These observations strongly suggest that India’s years-long attempts to portray Pakistan as an irresponsible regional actor and an increasingly isolated country haven’t been successful. Russia and the US rarely agree on anything nowadays, yet they’re in tacit agreement about Pakistan, particularly its regional connectivity and political roles. In fact, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to speculate that their ties with the Taliban were probably facilitated by none other than Pakistan, which might explain why each of them has recently warmed up to it after such channels resulted in last year’s US-Taliban peace deal and Russia hosting the group on several occasions in Moscow for peace talks despite officially designating them as terrorists.

India’s options now
With all of this in mind, Indian experts should respectfully do some soul-searching when it comes to their country’s grand strategy. Its version of multi-alignment hasn’t reaped expected dividends. This is probably because it’s predicated on zero-sum geopolitical goals and not mutually beneficial geo-economic ones. India has also been unquestionably unsuccessful in isolating Pakistan since that neighbouring country now serves as the convergence point of American, Chinese, and Russian interests, which wasn’t the case a year ago. These Great Powers all have a stake in Pakistan’s stability for practical economic reasons, which will make it more challenging for India to pressure it in the future, potentially even through the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Another point of pertinence is that India remains the only regional actor of relevance without official ties to the Taliban. New Delhi has politically principled reasons for this, but such a stance is arguably becoming counterproductive in the grand strategic sense when everyone else is already talking openly to the group. Since America, China, and Russia all talk to the Taliban nowadays, it appears to be a fait accompli that the rest of the world with few exceptions such as India will cautiously welcome them into the international community following what appears to be their inevitable participation in the Afghan government upon either a peace deal or a full military victory. In other words, India is politically isolating itself by not talking to the group, which might be why it’s finally reportedly considering doing so, according to informed sources that spoke to ThePrint.

Malhotra’s proposals in the face of this unprecedented challenge to India’s regional interests are for New Delhi to prioritise security and political engagement with Kabul. I respectfully argue that these suggestions stand little chance of success without India first modifying its policies. The security aspect will be difficult to pull off in any meaningful way if Iran’s incoming principalist (“conservative”) government balks at approving the Indian Air Force’s transit through its airspace, which is possible since Tehran too is pragmatically engaging with the Taliban after recently hosting its representatives and might not want to facilitate India’s implied ‘proxy war’ against the group through its enhanced security cooperation with Kabul.

The second part of her proposed plan is for India to assist Afghanistan by assembling a broad-based leadership coalition, but these efforts will be meaningless without including the Taliban, which in turn requires New Delhi to enter into dialogue with it. Unless India talks to the group like ThePrint reported that it might finally do, then any such political moves will be ignored by the other stakeholders: America, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Russia. Russia and the US might even consider India’s efforts to be obstructive since they both agree on the need to include the Taliban in any talks about Afghanistan’s political future, which would be a counterproductive consequence for New Delhi since it officially aims to balance between these two Great Powers, not provoke their ire.

I’ve come to the conclusion that India has been sidelined in Afghanistan due to its own policies that have failed to evolve in the face of rapidly changing regional circumstances, particularly America’s and Russia’s embrace of Pakistan. India’s multi-alignment was theoretically sound in principle but mistakenly focused on geopolitics instead of geo-economics whereas Pakistan, Russia, and the US are now prioritising the latter concept. This explains their surprisingly converging interests nowadays. For India to retain its relevance with respect to Afghanistan, it should recalibrate its multi-alignment policy by replacing geopolitics with geo-economics and consider talking to the Taliban right away.

It is an extremely good and pertinent analysis. I just could not figure out @Areesh that you wrote it or are you quoting jyoti malhotra!!
 

nahtanbob

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101% true… let me tell you how Pakistan and its intelligence agency measurably failed…

1. RAW have killed 70,000+ Pakistanis without a war
2. They have sucessfully opened another front from the west.
3. They have sucessfully managed groups in A-Tan including Govts and NDS.
They have sucessfully created anti-Pakism in 2 generations through books, mags, news and different type of literature.
4. They have sucessfully crippled Pakistan’s economy through terrorism.
5. Whenever they want, they sucessfully kill anyone in Pakistan including Chinese.
6. They sucessfully diverted entire Pakistan aggressive posture and doctrine to defense doctrine.
7. They sucessfully created anti Pak regimes and players around Pakistan.
8. They sucessfully developed trrrorism training hubs in A-Tan.

WTF ISI and Pak doing in past 20 years????

now after 2 decades, they are sidelined because of geopolitical change but they sucessfully achieved many things esp literally bankcrupt Pak…financially to economically… they have sucessfully bought politicianslike Nawaz Sharif, Altaf Hussain, Achakzai etc

so anyone explain how the **** we won against RAW and India????

Some sayingoh they’re loosing investments in A-Tan. Yes they’re loosing but they already done enough damage toPakistan from A-Z front..
Most of the things you have listed are doings of the powers that rule Pakistan. if you visit India you would realize the Indian government is not the smartest or the most efficient one around.
 

Sharma Ji

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their is no way India is just simply going to hand over their part of kashmir back to pak and should have made a deal that our kas is ours and yours is yours and stop the fight..
Bas… ab koi samjhao apni apni side ke jazbation and siasatgardon ko.

Many in India think the Pak military fear losing relevance if both nations can reach a settlement such as LOC =IB.. it’s a dangerous hot rock for Indian parties to mess with too.
 

Hakikat ve Hikmet

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I sincerely hope now the Pak will try to pay it back to India with interest! India needs to be destroyed from inside. I have to admit Modi/Hindutva/RSS etc. are doing a splendid job, that a thousand ISIs couldn’t do, so far…..
 

PradoTLC

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There’s a new Russia-Pakistan axis and Quad to tackle the Afghanistan crisis. India still doesn’t know what to do about them.

Indian experts are struggling to understand how their country has suddenly become sidelined in Afghanistan. Regional processes are nowadays rapidly moving along a trajectory that doesn’t appear to be in alignment with India’s interests. Examples of this include the Pakistani-Russian rapprochement, particularly its manifestation through close political coordination on the Afghan peace process and improved economic-energy connectivity, as well as the US’ recent decision to establish a new quadrilateral framework between itself, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan. Without understanding the reasons behind these developments, India will have difficulty formulating the appropriate policies for defending its interests.

Jyoti Malhotra, ThePrint’s consulting editor, published a column Tuesday titled “India alone on Afghan chessboard as US, Russia pick Pakistan. Here’s what Delhi can do”. She questioned why all of this is happening and proposed two solutions for how India should respond to it. She correctly identified the top two trends – Pakistan-Russia axis and a new Quad –that are most powerfully reshaping the regional situation but didn’t provide an explanation for what’s driving them. That’s to be expected since this is so new for Indian experts. Pertinent developments defied their predictions and thus compel them to modify their analytical models in light of these unforeseen moves.

As an American who’s been living, working, and studying in Moscow for the past eight years, during which time I’ve closely followed the improvement of Pakistani-Russian relations over the last half-decade and am even finishing up my PhD on the topic at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO, run by the Russian Foreign Ministry), I hope that I can provide some clarity about why all of this is happening and thus help answer the questions that Indian experts have. In my personal understanding of everything, Pakistan, Russia, and the US are all practising their own version of what India describes as multi-alignment whereby they are pragmatically diversifying their foreign partners.

Geo-economics over geopolitics
The difference between India’s multi-alignment and theirs is that New Delhi seems to perceive everything through the prism of geopolitics whereas Russia, Pakistan and the US have eventually come to embrace the geo-economic perspective instead. In practical terms, this refers to the new geo-economic grand strategy that Pakistan’s political, diplomatic and military leaders jointly unveiled during the inaugural Islamabad Security Dialogue in March, Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) vision, and the new quadrilateral framework that the US has established between itself, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan. I’ve published prior analyses about each of them that I’ll now list below so that intrepid readers can review them at their leisure if interested:

To summarise, Pakistan’s and Russia’s grand strategies are complementary, with each respective vision converging in Afghanistan. February’s agreement between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan to build a trilateral railway that can casually be referred to as PAKAFUZ, after the first letters of each participant’s name, was a game-changer since it created a tangible project through which Pakistani-Russian connectivity interests can finally merge. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s endorsement of Central Asia-South Asia connectivity at last week’s topical conference in Tashkent speaks to his country’s interests in this vision. As for the US, it realised that it too could utilise PAKAFUZ to expand its regional economic influence, ergo the “New Quad”.

The driving force behind these developments is that each of these three countries is beginning to formulate their regional policies through the perspective of geo-economics. The US’ speculative geopolitical plots in Afghanistan failed despite two decades of trying, which explains why it’s belatedly transitioning to geo-economic ones. Otherwise, the US presumably would have preferred to keep trying to advance its geopolitical goals if it felt that there was any credible chance left that they could succeed. Another important point is that rivals Russia and the US tacitly agree that Pakistan is the most important actor with respect to the Afghan peace process and one of the most geostrategically positioned states in the 21st century.

These observations strongly suggest that India’s years-long attempts to portray Pakistan as an irresponsible regional actor and an increasingly isolated country haven’t been successful. Russia and the US rarely agree on anything nowadays, yet they’re in tacit agreement about Pakistan, particularly its regional connectivity and political roles. In fact, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to speculate that their ties with the Taliban were probably facilitated by none other than Pakistan, which might explain why each of them has recently warmed up to it after such channels resulted in last year’s US-Taliban peace deal and Russia hosting the group on several occasions in Moscow for peace talks despite officially designating them as terrorists.

India’s options now
With all of this in mind, Indian experts should respectfully do some soul-searching when it comes to their country’s grand strategy. Its version of multi-alignment hasn’t reaped expected dividends. This is probably because it’s predicated on zero-sum geopolitical goals and not mutually beneficial geo-economic ones. India has also been unquestionably unsuccessful in isolating Pakistan since that neighbouring country now serves as the convergence point of American, Chinese, and Russian interests, which wasn’t the case a year ago. These Great Powers all have a stake in Pakistan’s stability for practical economic reasons, which will make it more challenging for India to pressure it in the future, potentially even through the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

Another point of pertinence is that India remains the only regional actor of relevance without official ties to the Taliban. New Delhi has politically principled reasons for this, but such a stance is arguably becoming counterproductive in the grand strategic sense when everyone else is already talking openly to the group. Since America, China, and Russia all talk to the Taliban nowadays, it appears to be a fait accompli that the rest of the world with few exceptions such as India will cautiously welcome them into the international community following what appears to be their inevitable participation in the Afghan government upon either a peace deal or a full military victory. In other words, India is politically isolating itself by not talking to the group, which might be why it’s finally reportedly considering doing so, according to informed sources that spoke to ThePrint.

Malhotra’s proposals in the face of this unprecedented challenge to India’s regional interests are for New Delhi to prioritise security and political engagement with Kabul. I respectfully argue that these suggestions stand little chance of success without India first modifying its policies. The security aspect will be difficult to pull off in any meaningful way if Iran’s incoming principalist (“conservative”) government balks at approving the Indian Air Force’s transit through its airspace, which is possible since Tehran too is pragmatically engaging with the Taliban after recently hosting its representatives and might not want to facilitate India’s implied ‘proxy war’ against the group through its enhanced security cooperation with Kabul.

The second part of her proposed plan is for India to assist Afghanistan by assembling a broad-based leadership coalition, but these efforts will be meaningless without including the Taliban, which in turn requires New Delhi to enter into dialogue with it. Unless India talks to the group like ThePrint reported that it might finally do, then any such political moves will be ignored by the other stakeholders: America, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Russia. Russia and the US might even consider India’s efforts to be obstructive since they both agree on the need to include the Taliban in any talks about Afghanistan’s political future, which would be a counterproductive consequence for New Delhi since it officially aims to balance between these two Great Powers, not provoke their ire.

I’ve come to the conclusion that India has been sidelined in Afghanistan due to its own policies that have failed to evolve in the face of rapidly changing regional circumstances, particularly America’s and Russia’s embrace of Pakistan. India’s multi-alignment was theoretically sound in principle but mistakenly focused on geopolitics instead of geo-economics whereas Pakistan, Russia, and the US are now prioritising the latter concept. This explains their surprisingly converging interests nowadays. For India to retain its relevance with respect to Afghanistan, it should recalibrate its multi-alignment policy by replacing geopolitics with geo-economics and consider talking to the Taliban right away.




also to add...

Indians are victims to their own lies.

Indians foolishly and childishly assume Pakistan military controls everything. Not only is this wrong and but down right silly and doesnt reflect ground reality. Yes ......Pakistan military is very influential and can in theory exercise it;s power via the barrel of the gun. But it wont, for a number of reason including a sea change in leadership thinking. Essentially three centres of power has risen in Pakistan in recent times ie Parliament, Judiciary and military

When Khan gov. came to power it set a new direction such as reconciliation to india like Khartpur corridor, releasing the indian pilot etc economic focus, education focus, environmental focus, trade and industry focus etc India failed to understand all of this change mainly as PM accurately stated india is fueled by a hateful hindu RSS thinking.

this failure to recognise that Pakistan was run by a new sherif continues to be denied by india as seen with the interview with Karen Thapur. IK is a captain and knows how to win, you dont win by making a truck load of enemies , you do that by collaborating and finding common interest. This Khan new policy of Pakistan was never understood by indians, as it assumed there would be no change or army controls everthing via terrorism. Today we have a situation where Pakistan has made on the Afgan front Russia, China, Iran, Stan countries and Turkey it;s allies and India sitting isolated.

India looks like a stupid kid on the block yelling Pakistan is bad and no body is taking note.


but this all good for us.. their stupidity and loss is our gain.
 
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PradoTLC

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Explains recent Indian overtures with the Taliban.

India prior to 2021: "We will never negotiate nor recognize the Taliban."
India during 2021: "The Taliban have changed. We are holding secret meetings."

India the champion of BS.

more like u turns... where do you think nawaz got his education
Pak's situation would have improved by big amount.

i dont think so.

Israel has been on our rear end since we started our nuke program.

More ideologically they see us as the biggest threat to their expansionary policy which include taking parts of the holy sites.


long story short ..........they vehemently believe in the Islamic prophecy that a non arab muslim civilisation from the land of Khorasan will rise and send them to the grave.
 
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PradoTLC

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that a thousand ISIs couldn’t do, so far…..

ISIS is a Moasad outfit filled with foolish arabs
Most of the things you have listed are doings of the powers that rule Pakistan.

TTP was armed and trained by RAW..to desablise Pakistan.. this isnt the first time you have done this.. you did it in Sri Lanka , you did it in East Pakistan and so on.

you have this brain washed assumption india doesnt do terrorism. It does big time , and the western power know of this it is another matter they ignore it... they never critique their pals... ie israel, india etc
 

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