The main question is why isn't Biden withdrawing the troops now? There must be some military reason for this tactical delay. US has renegaded on it's deal with the Taliban which is not a good sign at all and could be a spoiler for more action to come in the region. The Taliban may well escalate hostile action against US forces causing a spiraling conflict. We know Biden being urged to deal with Iran by Israel and war could be coming closer to the region.India is concerned about a vacuum developing in Afghanistan following the proposed withdrawal of the United States and Nato forces from the country, the chief of the defence staff has said.
General Bipin Rawat told a security conference that the worry was “disruptors” would step into the space created by the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. He declined to name the countries that could act as spoilers.
President Joe Biden said that US troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan starting on May 1 to end America’s longest war, rejecting calls for them to stay to ensure a peaceful resolution to that nation’s grinding internal conflict.
“Our concern is that the vacuum that will be created by the withdrawal of the United States and Nato should not create space for disruptors,” Rawat said.
‘It is time to end America’s longest war’ — Biden announces U.S. troops to leave Afghanistan by Sept. 11"It is time to end America's longest war," Biden said. "It is time for American troops to come home."www.cnbc.com
It wouldn't take long for the US to take out nearly 3000+ soldiers supporting the Afghan army, a fleet of c130's could have the US soldiers out in a jiffy so the announced delay is intriguing.
The possible scenarios are as follows:-
1. US pulls out troops of Afghanistan in September- Afghanistan will fall into anarchy again as it spirals to outright and total civil war. Pakistan wouldn't be too happy as influx of refugees flood into Pakistan and militants use Pakistani territory under various guise causing Pakistan army to take action. India will panic as they have spent huge amounts on the Northern alliance and don't wish to lose their investment and would no doubt provide material support to the NA.
2. US does not pull out- Taliban will restart targeting US and NATO soldiers causing the US and NATO to revamp their numbers creating Afghanistan war II. China and Iran will take sides against the US funneling weapons and money to ensure US/NATO are bogged down. Pakistan will supply the US/NATO making money out of the war.
Very unlikely the US would accept defeat in Afghanistan and abandon it's proxy the Northern alliance which it has supported for so long, so how the US plays this out remains to be seen. Seems like the military planners are being given time to come up with something new as Trump's decision to withdraw was unpalatable.