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India to buy 60-63 Rafales jets off the shelf from France; MMRCA deal off:

Su-11

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What a moron this PM is. If this was done by congress then everyone would be screaming out and out of the sellouts and corruption, but this automatically becomes a brilliant decision since the dumbasses who elected this dumbass to office have to defend their dumdass decision. Dumbocrazy at work!!
How is this a brilliant decision to buy a plane which costs 700 crore RS!!! Fuuucking shit!!
 

Ammyy

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What a moron this PM is. If this was done by congress then everyone would be screaming out and out of the sellouts and corruption, but this automatically becomes a brilliant decision since the dumbasses who elected this dumbass to office have to defend their dumdass decision. Dumbocrazy at work!!
How is this a brilliant decision to buy a plane which costs 700 crore RS!!! Fuuucking shit!!


Are you out of your mind .... MF congressi/Antony did not conclude this deal from 2007, why? Just to show themselves clean. IAF dying for new aircrafts. This government did right thing on right time. Meanwhile MMRCA contract will be signed.
 

PARIKRAMA

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A very good analysis by a fellow poster in a different forum. I am pasting it here for the logical reasoning he had showed about the whole deal. Perhaps reader can comment on after reading on this

I think the 36 rafale order is a trap & a message to dasault. I think there are 2 scenarios which can play out here.
The contentious issues are pricing of the MMRCA (126 + 63 options) + probable 45 rafale m for IN reportedly Dassault is asking for a price hike which we are not willing to pay as it will create a controversy & a scandal. The dassault has increased the quoted price of MMRCA which we are not agreeing to pay, and now we made an offer to buy 36 in G2G contract with better terms than those offered under MMRCA.

So the focus shifts back to pricing of MMRCA Offer as the pricing for 36 too depends on MMRCA quotes, because the whole game is now dependent upon it

Scenario 1
Now suppose dasault plays ball on MMRCA and agrees to original 12-14 billion quote then Dassault gets orders for 36+126+63 options+ probably 45 rafale M for IN = 270 Rafales

So if Dassault plays ball on MMRCA pricing and agrees to stick to original quote then there is an order for 225-270 for it to take.

Of course it will have to take some hit right now but will earn much much more for spares, support, MLU etc etc and france will benefit in terms of weapons for 225 -270 instead of just for 36 now this could happen by MMRCA or by Su30 MKI like deal.

Biggest - BJP will avoid a major controversy

Scenario 2
Dasault does not play ball on MMRCA price and stick to asking upward revision in price then in such a case we will still buy 36 at higher prices BUT
if Modi govt went for Su30MKi like deal with incremantal orders at different price points which will effectively mean that Modi govt is willingly giving price hike to Dassault when the tender a route to get low priced rafale is till alive it will invite a major controversy & corruption allegations & scandal allegations - which it seems inclined to avoid . (read Subramanium Swamy and PILs)

so in such a case - MMRCA & SU30MKI like deal both gets ruled out
so in such a scenario we still purchase 36 rafale at higher prices and keep the french govt happy - Dassault is too happy at they are going to supply 36 at higher prices but they can effectively forget the rest of the 126+63+45 rafle M
with 36 Iaf gets a breather till 2020

modi govt avoids a major controvery & gets time till 2017 to work out the options so effectively 36 is what we are buying with higher prices and thats it no more second lot of 36 or 24 & MMRCA is History.


Thus its a potential 225-270 birds order versus just 36 with MMRCA cancellation.

@halloweene @Abingdonboy @sancho @SuperSubrayan @MilSpec @jarves @SpArK @Capt.Popeye @Gabriel92 :

What you all feel with this logic? i feel Eric Trappier is at crossroads with the toughest decision of his lifetime.. I mean who would not want a order of 225-270 birds and claim Rafale as one of the most successful 4.5+G bird or focus on just profits and be happy with 36 Indian order and try harder at Qatar/Malaysia (say another 24-36 each)..


SIDE NOTE: Why are some journos like Ajai Shukla are reporting that 36 jets is a hogwash and primarily its a quid pro quo for a miniaturized nuke reactor which is for future N Sub program for India? i thot we are already studying Chakra reactor and upgrading to 140+ Mw reactors for future subs.. is the areva -L&T deal just for name?
 

MilSpec

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A very good analysis by a fellow poster in a different forum. I am pasting it here for the logical reasoning he had showed about the whole deal. Perhaps reader can comment on after reading on this

I think the 36 rafale order is a trap & a message to dasault. I think there are 2 scenarios which can play out here.
The contentious issues are pricing of the MMRCA (126 + 63 options) + probable 45 rafale m for IN reportedly Dassault is asking for a price hike which we are not willing to pay as it will create a controversy & a scandal. The dassault has increased the quoted price of MMRCA which we are not agreeing to pay, and now we made an offer to buy 36 in G2G contract with better terms than those offered under MMRCA.

So the focus shifts back to pricing of MMRCA Offer as the pricing for 36 too depends on MMRCA quotes, because the whole game is now dependent upon it

Scenario 1
Now suppose dasault plays ball on MMRCA and agrees to original 12-14 billion quote then Dassault gets orders for 36+126+63 options+ probably 45 rafale M for IN = 270 Rafales

So if Dassault plays ball on MMRCA pricing and agrees to stick to original quote then there is an order for 225-270 for it to take.

Of course it will have to take some hit right now but will earn much much more for spares, support, MLU etc etc and france will benefit in terms of weapons for 225 -270 instead of just for 36 now this could happen by MMRCA or by Su30 MKI like deal.

Biggest - BJP will avoid a major controversy

Scenario 2
Dasault does not play ball on MMRCA price and stick to asking upward revision in price then in such a case we will still buy 36 at higher prices BUT
if Modi govt went for Su30MKi like deal with incremantal orders at different price points which will effectively mean that Modi govt is willingly giving price hike to Dassault when the tender a route to get low priced rafale is till alive it will invite a major controversy & corruption allegations & scandal allegations - which it seems inclined to avoid . (read Subramanium Swamy and PILs)

so in such a case - MMRCA & SU30MKI like deal both gets ruled out
so in such a scenario we still purchase 36 rafale at higher prices and keep the french govt happy - Dassault is too happy at they are going to supply 36 at higher prices but they can effectively forget the rest of the 126+63+45 rafle M
with 36 Iaf gets a breather till 2020

modi govt avoids a major controvery & gets time till 2017 to work out the options so effectively 36 is what we are buying with higher prices and thats it no more second lot of 36 or 24 & MMRCA is History.


Thus its a potential 225-270 birds order versus just 36 with MMRCA cancellation.

@halloweene @Abingdonboy @sancho @SuperSubrayan @MilSpec @jarves @SpArK @Capt.Popeye @Gabriel92 :

What you all feel with this logic? i feel Eric Trappier is at crossroads with the toughest decision of his lifetime.. I mean who would not want a order of 225-270 birds and claim Rafale as one of the most successful 4.5+G bird or focus on just profits and be happy with 36 Indian order and try harder at Qatar/Malaysia (say another 24-36 each)..


SIDE NOTE: Why are some journos like Ajai Shukla are reporting that 36 jets is a hogwash and primarily its a quid pro quo for a miniaturized nuke reactor which is for future N Sub program for India? i thot we are already studying Chakra reactor and upgrading to 140+ Mw reactors for future subs.. is the areva -L&T deal just for name?

I will not comment on Ajai Shukla, my views on him is quite clear. Most of what he writes is a hogwash.


few points on the business case:
Profit margin on a 36 aircrafts cannot exceed the one on 109 or 129 or 200 aircrafts.

ToT transfers building are essentially the most profitable ventures, where HAL builds the aircraft and pay's a substantial percentage to dassualt, for rosoboron-irkut MKI production line is a goldmine. With close to zero input, there is no resource loading, no operating expense, capital expense projects are paid by HAL/MoD, it is essentially a financial controllers wet dream.

The issue on MMRCA is not the unit price but the critical technology transfer and deflated operating costs submitted by MMRCA, for which dassualt cannot be penalized. It was MoDs' error of the evaluating operating costs on what each individual firm had submitted.

During evaluations, IAF-MOD evaluated without bringing i HAL which would be the end-integrator and has the longest experience in ToT projects, now MMRCA half baked process is hitting roadblocks because of MoD's botched oversight.

HAL had long ago evaluated M2K production and suggested against it because of ridiculous prices submitted by Dassault Breguet at that time, so for me it was already surprising Rafale coming on top.

Going forward:
HAL and Dassault will come to equitable terms in manufacturing and initiate MMRCA. I had long ago predicted for Dassault to justify the business case for the amount of lost revenue, the fly away numbers have to be twice of what stated in MMRCA and this is exactly what it is.

Because increasing fly away units in MMRCA was out of the scope of the contract, additional flyway units were included in this separate contract, which will now facilitate the MMRCA context.

Brilliant move by the MoD and the new government.
 
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Su-11

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Are you out of your mind .... MF congressi/Antony did not conclude this deal from 2007, why? Just to show themselves clean. IAF dying for new aircrafts. This government did right thing on right time. Meanwhile MMRCA contract will be signed.
Anthony did not conclude this deal because they wanted to remove the corruption from this corruption infested defence sector. So removing corruption becomes his fault? What a crazy world we are living in where wrongs are the right.
God knows how much the BJP scumbags will make out of this deal. This is the same party who's defence minister made money from soldiers coffins. They can go to new lows to fill up their pockets, basstarddds!
 

Ammyy

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Anthony did not conclude this deal because they wanted to remove the corruption from this corruption infested defence sector. So removing corruption becomes his fault? What a crazy world we are living in where wrongs are the right.
God knows how much the BJP scumbags will make out of this deal. This is the same party who's defence minister made money from soldiers coffins. They can go to new lows to fill up their pockets, basstarddds!

I think you are talking about george fernandes.. belongs to JDU.

And really a great way to deal with corruption. just dnt make any decision. Like we say no work no problem :lol:
Even national security at high risk? What a idiot point to prove yourself right.

This is much much required deal and that MF antony did nothing.
 

sathya

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Wow 98 pages ? I only took few days off, since my net connection went down

Rafale buy came as a surprise just as Pakistan s f 16 buy from Jordan ..
 

SuperSubrayan

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A very good analysis by a fellow poster in a different forum. I am pasting it here for the logical reasoning he had showed about the whole deal. Perhaps reader can comment on after reading on this

I think the 36 rafale order is a trap & a message to dasault. I think there are 2 scenarios which can play out here.
The contentious issues are pricing of the MMRCA (126 + 63 options) + probable 45 rafale m for IN reportedly Dassault is asking for a price hike which we are not willing to pay as it will create a controversy & a scandal. The dassault has increased the quoted price of MMRCA which we are not agreeing to pay, and now we made an offer to buy 36 in G2G contract with better terms than those offered under MMRCA.

So the focus shifts back to pricing of MMRCA Offer as the pricing for 36 too depends on MMRCA quotes, because the whole game is now dependent upon it

Scenario 1
Now suppose dasault plays ball on MMRCA and agrees to original 12-14 billion quote then Dassault gets orders for 36+126+63 options+ probably 45 rafale M for IN = 270 Rafales

So if Dassault plays ball on MMRCA pricing and agrees to stick to original quote then there is an order for 225-270 for it to take.

Of course it will have to take some hit right now but will earn much much more for spares, support, MLU etc etc and france will benefit in terms of weapons for 225 -270 instead of just for 36 now this could happen by MMRCA or by Su30 MKI like deal.

Biggest - BJP will avoid a major controversy

Scenario 2
Dasault does not play ball on MMRCA price and stick to asking upward revision in price then in such a case we will still buy 36 at higher prices BUT
if Modi govt went for Su30MKi like deal with incremantal orders at different price points which will effectively mean that Modi govt is willingly giving price hike to Dassault when the tender a route to get low priced rafale is till alive it will invite a major controversy & corruption allegations & scandal allegations - which it seems inclined to avoid . (read Subramanium Swamy and PILs)

so in such a case - MMRCA & SU30MKI like deal both gets ruled out
so in such a scenario we still purchase 36 rafale at higher prices and keep the french govt happy - Dassault is too happy at they are going to supply 36 at higher prices but they can effectively forget the rest of the 126+63+45 rafle M
with 36 Iaf gets a breather till 2020

modi govt avoids a major controvery & gets time till 2017 to work out the options so effectively 36 is what we are buying with higher prices and thats it no more second lot of 36 or 24 & MMRCA is History.


Thus its a potential 225-270 birds order versus just 36 with MMRCA cancellation.

@halloweene @Abingdonboy @sancho @SuperSubrayan @MilSpec @jarves @SpArK @Capt.Popeye @Gabriel92 :

What you all feel with this logic? i feel Eric Trappier is at crossroads with the toughest decision of his lifetime.. I mean who would not want a order of 225-270 birds and claim Rafale as one of the most successful 4.5+G bird or focus on just profits and be happy with 36 Indian order and try harder at Qatar/Malaysia (say another 24-36 each)..


SIDE NOTE: Why are some journos like Ajai Shukla are reporting that 36 jets is a hogwash and primarily its a quid pro quo for a miniaturized nuke reactor which is for future N Sub program for India? i thot we are already studying Chakra reactor and upgrading to 140+ Mw reactors for future subs.. is the areva -L&T deal just for name?

Reasonable . As this order came out of no where . When no one expected PM went for 36 at behest of french pricing which is to be at 4.2 billion usd . Recently defence minister in an interview said this 36 is for urgent requirement . Butnegotiations are still on for producing more at home. But he also said it might rafale or other ( probably Su35S modified 5th gen) As if we might not go for Rafale so we all think. But it's not . These are the tactics used by MP to bring french to their original quotation . If few minor increase in price. So MMRCA will be placed no matter what . This gift won't give a damn about Dr Swami law suit. as they don't have anything to do with the Deal. More over our IAF is the key player here . We already have plans in place with Rafale . Which is Mig 27 replacement. We all forgetting our Navy needs Rafale M for vishal. We don't trust the honey traps like PakFa or F35 . Both are under development . We are not satisfied even with Airforce variant . F35 is a complex deal so we don't have another 10 years to negotiate .

Either we will go for less numbers for IAF and buy rafale for Navy and Nuclear Task force . Which alone will be about 45+45 + 108 Airforce variant . Excluding this 36. So as of now it's anyone's guess. It's true that Su35S is in advanced stage of finalising the requirements of IAF . since its been in India for 2 years as some source says. And we cannot risk ourself by ignoring Su35 when Chinese getting trained for Su35 in Russia as we speak. What we may say Su35 is superior to MKI for sure . That's some huge investment needed . Most probably for Jags replacement.

So don't worry Bro . Rafale deal is ON. OP is very right when he says 36 rafale is just a warning. It's true . Once we made our intent clear and once we showed these french that we got money . Negotiations will move in different angle from now. This will push french government who is staving for weapon deals to pressurise OEM to losses a bit for more orders as we promised which is 126(or 108) + 64 + 45/50 rafale M . Who would lose it ? When we are ready to help them with imidiate purchase of 36 . Or lose MMRCA to Russians with more Super Sukois/PakFa and Su35S . We don't have a time to waste .

I will not comment on Ajai Shukla, my views on him is quite clear. Most of what he writes is a hogwash.


few points on the business case:
Profit margin on a 36 aircrafts cannot exceed the one on 109 or 129 or 200 aircrafts.

ToT transfers building are essentially the most profitable ventures, where HAL builds the aircraft and pay's a substantial percentage to dassualt, for rosoboron-irkut MKI production line is a goldmine. With close to zero input, there is no resource loading, no operating expense, capital expense projects are paid by HAL/MoD, it is essentially a financial controllers wet dream.

The issue on MMRCA is not the unit price but the critical technology transfer and deflated operating costs submitted by MMRCA, for which dassualt cannot be penalized. It was MoDs' error of the evaluating operating costs on what each individual firm had submitted.

During evaluations, IAF-MOD evaluated without bringing i HAL which would be the end-integrator and has the longest experience in ToT projects, now MMRCA half baked process is hitting roadblocks because of MoD's botched oversight.

HAL had long ago evaluated M2K production and suggested against it because of ridiculous prices submitted by Dassault Breguet at that time, so for me it was already surprising Rafale coming on top.

Going forward:
HAL and Dassault will come to equitable terms in manufacturing and initiate MMRCA. I had long ago predicted for Dassault to justify the business case for the amount of lost revenue, the fly away numbers have to be twice of what stated in MMRCA and this is exactly what it is.

Because increasing fly away units in MMRCA was out of the scope of the contract, additional flyway units were included in this separate contract, which will now facilitate the MMRCA context.

Brilliant move by the MoD and the new government.
Bhai as you said operational cost is a problem at some extent .And that's why now we want french to compensate on original price . So both will have good deal to cherish. Buy transfer of technology French will won't be left out of the picture . Through out the life cycle in some way or the other we will give business to them. It's a good deal for both . Who will but Rafale at this kind of numbers ? Even french them self ordered for some 190 rafale and till 2010 100 inducted . They need heavy funding to continue with current order for then and for development of this fighter with new features . India can offer then a cushion which they badly needed.

But my guts says MMRCA will cost 20-22 billion including all weapons and infrastructure cost . And I guess we will go for it no matter what. Like ordering second batch of 36 jets we still can negotiate for better deal . But it won't take too long to come to an conclusion. With 64 new rafale IAF will be happy to live with it and go for Su35S and PakFa . We jays need 8-10 years of time frame to get our AMCA/LCA MK2 flying . So 64 Rafale + Upgraded Mirage 2kI will be good enough for MMRCA. Along with LCA 1 and Super Sukois we will be in safe place to negotiate. As we don't have to agree for everything they say.

But it's a done deal ! All things will fall in place with giving in here and there by both sides. And this is how modi works. Give some and get some policy .
 

sancho

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What you all feel with this logic? i feel Eric Trappier is at crossroads with the toughest decision of his lifetime.. I mean who would not want a order of 225-270 birds and claim Rafale as one of the most successful 4.5+G bird or focus on just profits and be happy with 36 Indian order

There are several flaws, for example the fact that there is no order for 36 Rafales so far! All the PM did, was to give "a letter of intent" to buy 36 fighters in flyaway condition and the most important part is, that it's not a deal with Dassault, but the French Government, because it's about buying fighters produced for French forces, at reduced cost, than what Dassault would ask.

The next issue are the figures, the option of 63 is not a requirement issued by IAF, but just a standard clause by MoD implemented in the Defence Procurement Procedure, which requires the option of 50% of the deal at the same condition. So if we want 126 fighters, 63 will be the option, if we buy 6 x C130Js, 3 will be the option and if we buy 20 more Hawks, 10 will be the option...

The figure for naval fighters are even more bogus, since there is no requirement or tender yet and as long as the catapult issue is not cleared, we don't even know what restriction will come with it. Remember, the navy wanted Rafale for a long time, but ended up with Mig 29K and N-LCA, because the ealier was a fixed procurement along with the carrier, the latter the only option to improve indigenous naval fighter R&D. Similarly, US fighters might come with catapults and the only way to get indigenous figher R&D to the next level is to navalise FGFA or AMCA, which once again puts a block to naval Rafales (apart from shortcomings of the fighter itself).

And as I said in the Rafale thread, the biggest problem for additional fighters, is the fact that the MMRCA deal is still not signed! The more it will be delayed, the later the IAF will get the 108 fighters from HAL (2025 possibly), so any follow order, would directly compete with FGFA or even AMCA orders. It's simply not the same case as it was for the MKI, which came in a time where we had just that 1 option for new fighters (LCA delayed, MRCA re-issued to MMRCA) and the only other fighter in production was the Jaguar. By 2025, IAF has plenty of options for manned fighters and drones, to cover operational roles and numbers more effectively and that, will set the limit for Rafales now.

The potential for 200+ fighters was there in 2012, after the selection of Rafale and with IAF aiming on a fast conclusion of the deal, not to mention IN evaluating a follow order for Mig 29Ks and N-LCA only in it's concept stages. All that Dassault had to do back than, was to fix offsets and ToT in a fast manner, DON'T create delays by deviating from RFP requirements and prove that the Rafale M can be operated on STOBAR carriers. But they didn't and now the requirement till 2025 is more or less covered and anything beyond that in IAF or IN, might be a generation ahead of the Rafale.

Another major flaw is, that the main issue is not the cost, but Dassault not agreeing to the terms required by the MoD and IAF! So the cost negotiations has no relation with the intend to by 36 flyaway and even if they had a relation, the DM Parrikar had opened that option in Dec / Jan, when he negotiated with the French exactly about these RFP terms (we buy an additional squadron from you, if you comply and provide the performance guarantee for the full licence production and not only the first 18). THAT was the time, where such a move could had made an impact in negotiations, while it now adds mainly to a PR hype during a foreign visit of the PM.

So until there is an agreement with Dassault on the pending contractual matters, it doesn't matter if it's 18 or 36 in flyaway condition, nor what the potential order for Rafale was / could be. For the last 3 years we are stuck with Dassault and this distraction doesn't solve any of the issues.

As for the Indian 36 ones, Namo signed for ACs to the MMRCA standard

Neither did he signed anything yet, nor are they to MMRCA standard, since they are produced to French Forces standards, which means current F3+ without IRST, HMS and just the current Damocles LDP. So, these 2 squads will be below MMRCA standard, similar to the Su30Ks that also wasn't up to the MKI level IAF wanted.
 

cerberus

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There are several flaws, for example the fact that there is no order for 36 Rafales so far! All the PM did, was to give "a letter of intent" to buy 36 fighters in flyaway condition and the most important part is, that it's not a deal with Dassault, but the French Government, because it's about buying fighters produced for French forces, at reduced cost, than what Dassault would ask.

The next issue are the figures, the option of 63 is not a requirement issued by IAF, but just a standard clause by MoD implemented in the Defence Procurement Procedure, which requires the option of 50% of the deal at the same condition. So if we want 126 fighters, 63 will be the option, if we buy 6 x C130Js, 3 will be the option and if we buy 20 more Hawks, 10 will be the option...

The figure for naval fighters are even more bogus, since there is no requirement or tender yet and as long as the catapult issue is not cleared, we don't even know what restriction will come with it. Remember, the navy wanted Rafale for a long time, but ended up with Mig 29K and N-LCA, because the ealier was a fixed procurement along with the carrier, the latter the only option to improve indigenous naval fighter R&D. Similarly, US fighters might come with catapults and the only way to get indigenous figher R&D to the next level is to navalise FGFA or AMCA, which once again puts a block to naval Rafales (apart from shortcomings of the fighter itself).

And as I said in the Rafale thread, the biggest problem for additional fighters, is the fact that the MMRCA deal is still not signed! The more it will be delayed, the later the IAF will get the 108 fighters from HAL (2025 possibly), so any follow order, would directly compete with FGFA or even AMCA orders. It's simply not the same case as it was for the MKI, which came in a time where we had just that 1 option for new fighters (LCA delayed, MRCA re-issued to MMRCA) and the only other fighter in production was the Jaguar. By 2025, IAF has plenty of options for manned fighters and drones, to cover operational roles and numbers more effectively and that, will set the limit for Rafales now.

The potential for 200+ fighters was there in 2012, after the selection of Rafale and with IAF aiming on a fast conclusion of the deal, not to mention IN evaluating a follow order for Mig 29Ks and N-LCA only in it's concept stages. All that Dassault had to do back than, was to fix offsets and ToT in a fast manner, DON'T create delays by deviating from RFP requirements and prove that the Rafale M can be operated on STOBAR carriers. But they didn't and now the requirement till 2025 is more or less covered and anything beyond that in IAF or IN, might be a generation ahead of the Rafale.

Another major flaw is, that the main issue is not the cost, but Dassault not agreeing to the terms required by the MoD and IAF! So the cost negotiations has no relation with the intend to by 36 flyaway and even if they had a relation, the DM Parrikar had opened that option in Dec / Jan, when he negotiated with the French exactly about these RFP terms (we buy an additional squadron from you, if you comply and provide the performance guarantee for the full licence production and not only the first 18). THAT was the time, where such a move could had made an impact in negotiations, while it now adds mainly to a PR hype during a foreign visit of the PM.

So until there is an agreement with Dassault on the pending contractual matters, it doesn't matter if it's 18 or 36 in flyaway condition, nor what the potential order for Rafale was / could be. For the last 3 years we are stuck with Dassault and this distraction doesn't solve any of the issues.



Neither did he signed anything yet, nor are they to MMRCA standard, since they are produced to French Forces standards, which means current F3+ without IRST, HMS and just the current Damocles LDP. So, these 2 squads will be below MMRCA standard, similar to the Su30Ks that also wasn't up to the MKI level IAF wanted.
Source of your Claim
 

cerberus

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Of what you said details of the separate contract is still not out yet

Yesterday in a interview with PTI

FM clearly mentioned that 36 planes will be built according to Indian standards And will be delivered to India in 2 years if deal is sealed

Whatever you mentioned about do you have source or details of your claims or you are Comprising your technical knowledge As Known Critic of The Current Nda GOI

Ps:No offence
 

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