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India, Pakistan may stumble into large-scale war, warns US intel report

Chhatrapati

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India never won the war, but used international pressure and portray himself as innocent. India entered Bangladesh when they knew a few thousand Pakistan army is not capable to counter invoked Indian-backed trained terrorist.
I was talking about Kargil and I wouldn't call it a win for Pakistan, not that others were, and then the Mumbai 2008, those two pretty much screwed things up for Pakistan in terms of international support. Things more or less went down from there for you.
 

Joe Shearer

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Why don't you find your gangu mum and gangu playmates on a gangu defence forum........bharatratsh*t is more apt for you and your kind........... :azn:

Little weiner boy, perhaps you are another one suffering from little indian weiner syndrome.......... :azn::

LOL.

Your elders and betters greet me with respect - a respect that you do not get from them.
 

Bilal Khan (Quwa)

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Interesting post. Just what do you reckon the "right actors" to be that in your view USA should support in the scenario that you describe above? And just why do you think those right actors are not being recognized by USA?
There's a question within your question: Who are the "right actors" in the view of the US? Does the US really care about non-state actors or -- in truth -- it likes the instability in South Asia? So the true question is, "what is the US actually getting from supporting the current actors?"

IMHO if the US has a real problem with Pakistan, it communicates those issues in private to our leaders. All of this public noise is just noise. If there's a direction set, we're heading there no matter what we hear from the US in public. Remember, "do more" is as old as at least Musharraf, yet in the 2000s we got aid, and in the 2010s we stopped getting aid.

Basically, the US can also shower us with sweet words (like some other countries do), but that doesn't necessarily have an impact on the reality. IMO, as it is right now, the reality is that we're doing what the US wants us to do, and we're asking for exactly as much the US is willing to pay.
 

Mrc

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War is inevitable...
Its not question of if but when...

No need to stick our head in sand
Its time to start planning to win it and comprehensively....
 

VCheng

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There's a question within your question: Who are the "right actors" in the view of the US? Does the US really care about non-state actors or -- in truth -- it likes the instability in South Asia? So the true question is, "what is the US actually getting from supporting the current actors?"

IMHO if the US has a real problem with Pakistan, it communicates those issues in private to our leaders. All of this public noise is just noise. If there's a direction set, we're heading there no matter what we hear from the US in public. Remember, "do more" is as old as at least Musharraf, yet in the 2000s we got aid, and in the 2010s we stopped getting aid.

Basically, the US can also shower us with sweet words (like some other countries do), but that doesn't necessarily have an impact on the reality. IMO, as it is right now, the reality is that we're doing what the US wants us to do, and we're asking for exactly as much the US is willing to pay.
From the point of view of the US, your first question is very easy to answer: the "right actors" are those that can help USA further its national interests. Extending that a bit more, USA does not really have any major issues with Pakistan, given that it has generally found it to be very responsive to US requirements, public noises notwithstanding. As you conclude, the reality remains that Pakistan is what the US wants us to do, and trying to get back as much as possible in return. A perfectly workable situation, if you ask me.
 

HAIDER

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I was talking about Kargil and I wouldn't call it a win for Pakistan, not that others were, and then the Mumbai 2008, those two pretty much screwed things up for Pakistan in terms of international support. Things more or less went down from there for you.
2008 case and character never unmasked. India refused to provide access to Kasab, requested by Pakistan many times. The case never reached its logical end. No one supports the death of innocent civilians in such a type of stand-off.
 

PradoTLC

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I was talking about Kargil and I wouldn't call it a win for Pakistan, not that others were, and then the Mumbai 2008, those two pretty much screwed things up for Pakistan in terms of international support. Things more or less went down from there for you.
That was thanks to US pressure to force a withdrawal .. no thanks to your ineffectual infantry or airforce
We can’t win on ground? Musharraf went to USA while USA was mounting pressure on Vajpayee to have a ceasefire, Vajpayee disagreed and said we know how to handle Pakistan and then rest is history, the war got over only when all Pakistanis were thrown back.
BS
 

ARMalik

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Yes of course it is published in DAWN, the biggest a-hole foreign funded newspaper in Pakistan which the incompetent Pakistan government is incapable of banning in this country. The reason Pakistan people have to put up with this nonsense in the shameless GoP allowing such rubbish in the country.
 

Baibars_1260

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It is an existential religious war we are fighting. It is no longer a question of territory or "Kashmir ".

The psyche of the Indian masses has been manipulated into a vicious thirst for revenge, by a calculated propaganda by fascist regime. This revenge will be exacted, first on the Indian Muslims till they are all dispatched to their "final solution " from the wretched sub-human existence they are now leading. The final war will be waged on us.

The Hindutva fascist views the Pakistani citizen equivalent to the Indian Muslim to be massacred and eliminated and Pakistan is reintegrated into the "punya bhumi "
A forthcoming India Pakistan nuclear holocaust is nothing more than a larger Hindutva fascist inspired communal pogrom. That is the Hindutva delusion.
 

Arsalan345

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Attack will happen. nobody can stop attacks. Report is right. India always wants to portray itself as victim so that it can gather support and attack Pakistan. All this friendship drama is useless. We must prepare for one final war and please make every destructive weapon like chemical weapons, biological weapons, satellite killer missiles etc. Any weapon that can annihilate India faster than us should be the the top priority of our military. Let me tell you! we have to fight this war alone.
 

Baibars_1260

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Attack will happen. nobody can stop attacks. Report is right. India always wants to portray itself as victim so that it can gather support and attack Pakistan. All this friendship drama is useless. We must prepare for one final war and please make every destructive weapon like chemical weapons, biological weapons, satellite killer missiles etc. Any weapon that can annihilate India faster than us should be the the top priority of our military. Let me tell you! we have to fight this war alone.
We must prepare to survive the war and it's aftermath.
See the thread below.

 

gulli

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These gossip session of old yanks publish as report must stop immediately. Meanwhile in India they say Biden will be killed to make way for that Kamala Harris.
 
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India, Pakistan may stumble into large-scale war, warns US intel report
Anwar IqbalPublished April 9, 2021 - Updated about 2 hours ago
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The report warns policymakers in Washington that “a full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years.” — White Star/File

The report warns policymakers in Washington that “a full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years.” — White Star/File
India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, warns a US intelligence report while exploring the possibilities of miscalculations leading to a war in South Asia.
The assessment is included in a Global Trends report produced every four years by the US government's National Intelligence Council, released in Washington. The report, released on Wednesday, focuses on both immediate and distant futures and is designed to help policymakers anticipate the forces likely to shape the world in the next five to 20 years.
“India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian government judges to be significant,” the report warns.
Read: There is hope for Pakistan-India peace process
The ability of some militant outfits to conduct attacks, New Delhi’s resolve to retaliate against Islamabad after such an attack, and Islamabad’s determination to defend itself “are likely to persist and may increase” in the next five years, the report adds.
“Miscalculation by both governments could prompt a breakdown in the deterrence that has restricted conflict to levels each side judges it can manage.”
The report warns policymakers in Washington that “a full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years.”
The US policy in Afghanistan and its impact on the neighbouring countries is top on a list of key uncertainties in South Asia that are underlined in the report.
“US actions in Afghanistan during the next year will have significant consequences across the region, particularly in Pakistan and India,” the report states.
This would be “especially true” if a security vacuum emerges in Afghanistan that results in a civil war between the Taliban and its Afghan opponents, expanded freedom of manoeuvre for regional terrorist networks, or criminals and refugees flowing out of the country, it adds.
The report predicts that such an outcome would exacerbate political tensions and conflict in western Pakistan and sharpen the India-Pakistan rivalry by strengthening longstanding judgments about covert warfare in Islamabad and New Delhi.
“An abrupt US exit probably would also amplify concerns that the United States will lose interest in South Asia generally,” the document says.
Also read: A hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan would be unwise, writes PM in op-ed
The US intelligence community estimates that India and China may also slip into a conflict that neither government intends, “especially if military forces escalate a conflict quickly to challenge each other on a critical part of the contested border”.
In June 2020, a short military exchange resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers, exacerbated the strategic rivalry between Beijing and New Delhi and sharply affected international perceptions of both countries.
The report puts the prospects for increased regional trade or energy cooperation in South Asia during the next five years as low, “due in part to the high probability of ongoing hostility between India and Pakistan". Trade within South Asia is already the lowest of any region in the world.
The US intelligence community warns that water insecurity in the region is also an increasing risk. The assessment includes forecasts by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) that Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025, given a combination of poor water conservation practices, rising temperatures, and decreased rainfall.
The report notes that previous extreme weather events, such as the 1970 cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, contributed to state failure in then-East Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh the next year. It warns that future events could also prompt a regional crisis with enormous humanitarian, political, and security implications to which external powers probably would try to respond.
The report points out that security threats have “undergirded popular support” for nationalist leaders, and these threats are likely to continue or worsen in some cases. For example, “military tensions between India and Pakistan are at their most contentious in many years, strengthening leaders in both capitals.”
The US intelligence community notes that information technology is fuelling authoritarian tendencies by making it easier for South Asian governments to influence their populations. It points out that in 2019, India “led the world in Internet shutdowns by a wide margin” — with several months-long crackdowns to suppress protests, including in occupied Kashmir. Pakistan has deployed Huawei’s Safe Cities technology, raising public fears of increased surveillance.
The report notes that the balancing approach, particularly in relation to China, also affects regional dynamics. Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka probably judge their countries “can more easily deflect New Delhi’s demands or block its regional leadership aspirations by maintaining ties with Beijing”.
For its part, New Delhi probably will look for ways to mitigate Chinese influence given China’s expanding foothold in the Indian Ocean, the report adds. For example, India almost certainly will continue to encourage Japan to offer economic investment and some military cooperation to other South Asian countries to push them to align more closely with New Delhi and Tokyo.
The report predicts that despite their growing interest in China, almost every government in the region will seek to maintain ties with the US as part of their balancing efforts. The United States is the biggest export market for Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and most South Asian leaders continue to cultivate and publicly tout their relationships with Washington.
US intelligence analysts predict that during the next five years, slowing economic growth and growing polarisation will pose an increasing risk to traditions of democratic and independent governance in several countries in South Asia.
Many countries will strengthen their efforts to hedge and balance their relationships with multiple external powers, including China, Russia, Japan, and the US.
Through 2025, South Asia will have to manage the challenges that internal security problems, the risk of inter-state war, and the effects of climate change and pollution pose to at least some countries’ longer-term democratic and economic development.
The report projects that economic growth in South Asia will remain slow during the next five years and will be insufficient to employ the region’s expanding workforce — especially as the world emerges from the pandemic.
Before the Covid-19 outbreak, unemployment in India had reached a 40-year high until GDP growth slowed markedly in the latter half of 2019, and India’s strict lockdown from March to May 2020 temporarily drove unemployment up to 23 per cent.
The report argues that the region’s economy is hampered by outdated legal systems, severe pollution, water shortages, and highly bureaucratic regulatory environments — all increasing investor uncertainty. “No government in the region is prepared to undertake economic reforms on the scale required to generate robust growth,” the report adds.
It notes that almost all the economies in the region remain focused on agriculture, with the bulk of their workforces dependent on farming. Most countries’ agricultural sectors are underproductive in relation to the large share of government funds and natural resources they consume.
According to the report, this disparity is driven by a variety of factors, including growing water scarcity, environmental damage and climate change effects, and government failure to reform agricultural subsidies that benefit rural constituents at the expense of growing urban populations.
Democracy
US intelligence analysts argue that despite some signs of sustained democratisation, domestic politics in much of the region are likely to continue on the polarising course of the past few years, and this trend may sharpen in some countries.
“Strongperson leaders, even those elected in largely free and fair contests, probably will push majoritarian agendas that widen factional divides — potentially weakening political stability in societies already split along sectarian and ethnic lines,” they warn.
“This political polarisation is rooted in strongly felt nationalist narratives that have become prominent in recent years and met little effective resistance from opposition parties or the courts.”
The report warns that polarising political rule of some leaders in the region will probably increase the inequities or abuses faced by minorities and political opponents of the ruling parties.
“In India and Sri Lanka, Muslims are likely to continue to experience growing political and economic discrimination from Hindu and Sinhalese Buddhist nationalist ruling parties.”
The report notes that Afghanistan too is seeing an intensification of ethnic tensions between Pashtuns and other ethnic groups, a trend that is accelerating as Afghans prepare for the withdrawal of Western troops.
The combination of eroding institutions, mounting security threats, and new digital technologies is likely to enable some South Asian leaders to continue advancing their authoritarian policies, but probably in the face of an uncertain political cost associated with an economic slowdown, the report warns.
It notes that some of these leaders have applied majoritarian political formulae, whereas others have undermined independent judiciaries, election commissions, and politically neutral militaries and bureaucracies, weakening potential future resistance.
no war ,
we are going to supply pakistan covid vaccene .
US intel : Pakistan will break up in YE 2014

Pak Intel: Does one actually need intelligence to be in American Intelligence ?



2019: Wacked by PAF
2020 : Wacked by PLA

yup that's loss of face twice..
forget all , get vaxination first .
 

Arsalan345

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We must prepare to survive the war and it's aftermath.
See the thread below.

one final nail in indian coffin would be a trojan horse. a gift from pakistan. there are many ways to destroy india. you must think like evil if you want to destroy india.
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