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India, Pakistan may stumble into large-scale war, warns US intel report

insight-out

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Says the country that has "stumbled into" countless wars in South America, East Asia, and the Middle East over the last century.

The US has a habit of projecting its own weaknesses on others. From nuclear weapons proliferation and safety, to human rights abuses, to the use of mass media for propaganda, the US is more guilty than most countries over whom it sits in judgement.
 

HAIDER

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So why did you attack us under op. Chengiz khan?
Well, every small country's offense is defense and India knows very well, they can't win the war on ground combat. But use the foreign pressure, just like in the Kargil operation India used US pressure for withdrawal otherwise they lost the ground after taking massive casualties.
Plus Indian posters failed to understand whenever Indian friendly govt comes into power, Indians interfere directly in Pak matter and influence Pak economic issues. Compare to China it always stay away from being in the limelight. Nawaz-Modi relations are living examples, he totally drifted away from Pakistani interest and policy, where end up filed a fake Kashmir encounter report FIR in Pakistan to keep Modi happy.
 
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Well, every small country's offense is defense and India knows very well, they can't win the war on ground combat. But use the foreign pressure, just like in the Kargil operation India used US pressure for withdrawal otherwise they lost the ground after taking massive casualties.
We can’t win on ground? Musharraf went to USA while USA was mounting pressure on Vajpayee to have a ceasefire, Vajpayee disagreed and said we know how to handle Pakistan and then rest is history, the war got over only when all Pakistanis were thrown back.
 

PAKISTANFOREVER

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It's not our fault, you lost face twice in a decade. The perception problem is Pakistan's own making.
Pakistan is not going to comply with any demands, neither side are in a position to make any demands, and the relationship has reached a saturation point. The current government in India is not interested in any more talks and leave Pakistan part of the problem in the backburner while Pakistan is figuring out how to deal with India, trade or no trade, diplomatically or militarily.




With nearly 40%of the earth's most severely malnourished and extreme poor and a further 732 millions indians defecating in the open, india is FAR too weak, powerless, scared and backward to mess with Pakistan despite them being more than 7× bigger than Pakistan and having the full backing of the West and Russia........... :azn::






 

HAIDER

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We can’t win on ground? Musharraf went to USA while USA was mounting pressure on Vajpayee to have a ceasefire, Vajpayee disagreed and said we know how to handle Pakistan and then rest is history, the war got over only when all Pakistanis were thrown back.
Well, well for few powers Pak-Indian war doesn't suit to execute their agenda in the region. Indian job is to less interference in Pakistan border and internal matters and keeps its guns toward China.
 
Oct 6, 2020
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With nearly 40%of the earth's most severely malnourished and extreme poor and a further 732 millions indians defecating in the open, india is FAR too weak, powerless, scared and backward to mess with Pakistan despite them being more than 7× bigger than Pakistan and having the full backing of the West and Russia........... :azn::






Well this is your Signature...
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😏😏😏
 

PAKISTANFOREVER

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We can’t win on ground? Musharraf went to USA while USA was mounting pressure on Vajpayee to have a ceasefire, Vajpayee disagreed and said we know how to handle Pakistan and then rest is history, the war got over only when all Pakistanis were thrown back.



Is that what they have been teaching you at the world's biggest PROPAGANDA and FAKE NEWS factory?...............:disagree::






You do realise there is 0 credible and genuine evidence for your claims..............:azn:
 
Oct 6, 2020
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Is that what they have been teaching you at the world's biggest PROPAGANDA and FAKE NEWS factory?...............:disagree::






You do realise there is 0 credible and genuine evidence for your claims..............:azn:
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User

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India, Pakistan may stumble into large-scale war, warns US intel report
Anwar IqbalPublished April 9, 2021 - Updated about 2 hours ago
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The report warns policymakers in Washington that “a full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years.” — White Star/File

The report warns policymakers in Washington that “a full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years.” — White Star/File
India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, warns a US intelligence report while exploring the possibilities of miscalculations leading to a war in South Asia.
The assessment is included in a Global Trends report produced every four years by the US government's National Intelligence Council, released in Washington. The report, released on Wednesday, focuses on both immediate and distant futures and is designed to help policymakers anticipate the forces likely to shape the world in the next five to 20 years.
“India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian government judges to be significant,” the report warns.
Read: There is hope for Pakistan-India peace process
The ability of some militant outfits to conduct attacks, New Delhi’s resolve to retaliate against Islamabad after such an attack, and Islamabad’s determination to defend itself “are likely to persist and may increase” in the next five years, the report adds.
“Miscalculation by both governments could prompt a breakdown in the deterrence that has restricted conflict to levels each side judges it can manage.”
The report warns policymakers in Washington that “a full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years.”
The US policy in Afghanistan and its impact on the neighbouring countries is top on a list of key uncertainties in South Asia that are underlined in the report.
“US actions in Afghanistan during the next year will have significant consequences across the region, particularly in Pakistan and India,” the report states.
This would be “especially true” if a security vacuum emerges in Afghanistan that results in a civil war between the Taliban and its Afghan opponents, expanded freedom of manoeuvre for regional terrorist networks, or criminals and refugees flowing out of the country, it adds.
The report predicts that such an outcome would exacerbate political tensions and conflict in western Pakistan and sharpen the India-Pakistan rivalry by strengthening longstanding judgments about covert warfare in Islamabad and New Delhi.
“An abrupt US exit probably would also amplify concerns that the United States will lose interest in South Asia generally,” the document says.
Also read: A hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan would be unwise, writes PM in op-ed
The US intelligence community estimates that India and China may also slip into a conflict that neither government intends, “especially if military forces escalate a conflict quickly to challenge each other on a critical part of the contested border”.
In June 2020, a short military exchange resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers, exacerbated the strategic rivalry between Beijing and New Delhi and sharply affected international perceptions of both countries.
The report puts the prospects for increased regional trade or energy cooperation in South Asia during the next five years as low, “due in part to the high probability of ongoing hostility between India and Pakistan". Trade within South Asia is already the lowest of any region in the world.
The US intelligence community warns that water insecurity in the region is also an increasing risk. The assessment includes forecasts by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) that Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025, given a combination of poor water conservation practices, rising temperatures, and decreased rainfall.
The report notes that previous extreme weather events, such as the 1970 cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, contributed to state failure in then-East Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh the next year. It warns that future events could also prompt a regional crisis with enormous humanitarian, political, and security implications to which external powers probably would try to respond.
The report points out that security threats have “undergirded popular support” for nationalist leaders, and these threats are likely to continue or worsen in some cases. For example, “military tensions between India and Pakistan are at their most contentious in many years, strengthening leaders in both capitals.”
The US intelligence community notes that information technology is fuelling authoritarian tendencies by making it easier for South Asian governments to influence their populations. It points out that in 2019, India “led the world in Internet shutdowns by a wide margin” — with several months-long crackdowns to suppress protests, including in occupied Kashmir. Pakistan has deployed Huawei’s Safe Cities technology, raising public fears of increased surveillance.
The report notes that the balancing approach, particularly in relation to China, also affects regional dynamics. Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka probably judge their countries “can more easily deflect New Delhi’s demands or block its regional leadership aspirations by maintaining ties with Beijing”.
For its part, New Delhi probably will look for ways to mitigate Chinese influence given China’s expanding foothold in the Indian Ocean, the report adds. For example, India almost certainly will continue to encourage Japan to offer economic investment and some military cooperation to other South Asian countries to push them to align more closely with New Delhi and Tokyo.
The report predicts that despite their growing interest in China, almost every government in the region will seek to maintain ties with the US as part of their balancing efforts. The United States is the biggest export market for Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and most South Asian leaders continue to cultivate and publicly tout their relationships with Washington.
US intelligence analysts predict that during the next five years, slowing economic growth and growing polarisation will pose an increasing risk to traditions of democratic and independent governance in several countries in South Asia.
Many countries will strengthen their efforts to hedge and balance their relationships with multiple external powers, including China, Russia, Japan, and the US.
Through 2025, South Asia will have to manage the challenges that internal security problems, the risk of inter-state war, and the effects of climate change and pollution pose to at least some countries’ longer-term democratic and economic development.
The report projects that economic growth in South Asia will remain slow during the next five years and will be insufficient to employ the region’s expanding workforce — especially as the world emerges from the pandemic.
Before the Covid-19 outbreak, unemployment in India had reached a 40-year high until GDP growth slowed markedly in the latter half of 2019, and India’s strict lockdown from March to May 2020 temporarily drove unemployment up to 23 per cent.
The report argues that the region’s economy is hampered by outdated legal systems, severe pollution, water shortages, and highly bureaucratic regulatory environments — all increasing investor uncertainty. “No government in the region is prepared to undertake economic reforms on the scale required to generate robust growth,” the report adds.
It notes that almost all the economies in the region remain focused on agriculture, with the bulk of their workforces dependent on farming. Most countries’ agricultural sectors are underproductive in relation to the large share of government funds and natural resources they consume.
According to the report, this disparity is driven by a variety of factors, including growing water scarcity, environmental damage and climate change effects, and government failure to reform agricultural subsidies that benefit rural constituents at the expense of growing urban populations.
Democracy
US intelligence analysts argue that despite some signs of sustained democratisation, domestic politics in much of the region are likely to continue on the polarising course of the past few years, and this trend may sharpen in some countries.
“Strongperson leaders, even those elected in largely free and fair contests, probably will push majoritarian agendas that widen factional divides — potentially weakening political stability in societies already split along sectarian and ethnic lines,” they warn.
“This political polarisation is rooted in strongly felt nationalist narratives that have become prominent in recent years and met little effective resistance from opposition parties or the courts.”
The report warns that polarising political rule of some leaders in the region will probably increase the inequities or abuses faced by minorities and political opponents of the ruling parties.
“In India and Sri Lanka, Muslims are likely to continue to experience growing political and economic discrimination from Hindu and Sinhalese Buddhist nationalist ruling parties.”
The report notes that Afghanistan too is seeing an intensification of ethnic tensions between Pashtuns and other ethnic groups, a trend that is accelerating as Afghans prepare for the withdrawal of Western troops.
The combination of eroding institutions, mounting security threats, and new digital technologies is likely to enable some South Asian leaders to continue advancing their authoritarian policies, but probably in the face of an uncertain political cost associated with an economic slowdown, the report warns.
It notes that some of these leaders have applied majoritarian political formulae, whereas others have undermined independent judiciaries, election commissions, and politically neutral militaries and bureaucracies, weakening potential future resistance.
Nothing new. Same copy-paste.
I can write better reports than this.
 

Muhammad Omar

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Won't happen because full scale war will he devastating not only for the India or Pakistan but for the world as well

US UK China Gulf etc will jump in to calm both countries down if won't than welcome to WW3 human extinction
 

kursed

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Actually, this report refers to something far graver than anything we've faced so far. The Indian government actually thought that Pakistan would stay quiet once attacked across the border. This 'thought process' dictated the Balakot strikes that they undertook.

Let's say, for the sake of an argument that the missiles had hit their target and we'd ended up losing 300 kids for real. All of Pakistan would have woken up to a real war, on the border. It was a point of no-return because our stupid enemy woke up one fine day and thought to itself that since Pakistan took the Surgical Strike -1 propaganda lying down, it will do the same even if hit harder.

There was a time where I was of the view that Pakistan might need to sit and take some border fire missions, for the sake of greater good and economic stability. But as things have turned out, we are not dealing with a rational enemy. In this instance, a lack of a suitable response to 2016 fire mission eroded the idea of deterrence in the enemy's mind, arguably allowing them to further test us in 2019.

Had PAF not undertaken the strikes it did, we'd have for sure enabled India to take further actions into Pakistan. There's a reason why they went low thereafter.

In any case, anything - even a regular fire mission from the other side needs to be responded with full and an integrated response from our end. The other side can only understand one type of language. India should be assured of retaliatory loss if they test Pakistan - there are no two ways about it.
 
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This is the only analysis they have been repeating since last many years.

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Trango Towers

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Bs report..
Indian terror in pakistan is not mentioned. Just one sided report as usual.
India knows for Feb 27 2019 not to dare cross that border or we will hit them hard.
This is not 1971 and Pakistan is one nation and we are stronger now than ever in our history. Our armed forces have never been as well trained battle tested or as well equipped in our history. Miscalculation will be in new Delhi when they get high on cow urine and start chest thumping. The reply will be swift and tea very expensive
 

Hakikat ve Hikmet

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India never won the war, but used international pressure and portray himself as innocent. India entered Bangladesh when they knew a few thousand Pakistan army is not capable to counter invoked Indian-backed trained terrorist.
And, that too with 200% support from the USSR in all aspects: military, training, equipment, logistics, planning, diplomacy etc. The Soviet generals were in Delhi planning every aspect of the execution! Even the Soviet observers were present all along the East Pak borders to direct the Indian offensive!! And, the USSR paid it with her life....
Won't happen because full scale war will he devastating not only for the India or Pakistan but for the world as well

US UK China Gulf etc will jump in to calm both countries down if won't than welcome to WW3 human extinction
Advani and Adani are enough to deter India!!! The rest are all details.....
 

Xone

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Pakistan and India are well aware of each other, so there is no chance of war, except with words to wow the wily masters of the masses.
 

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