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‘India had far more Covid cases than official count’

beijingwalker

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‘India had far more Covid cases than official count’

‘India had far more Covid cases than official count’
Last Updated: Sep 11, 2020, 11:56 PM IST

New Delhi: India had an estimated 6.4 million coronavirus cases in early May, according to a survey conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), while the official count was 85,940 on May 15.

The ICMR’s serological survey suggests that the country may have missed a significant proportion of cases in the first three months of the pandemic. The number of cases in the country was over 4.5 million as of Friday morning.


“Based on the overall adjusted seroprevalence of 0.73% and reported number of Covid-19 cases, it was estimated that for every RT-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) confirmed case of Covid-19, there were 82-130 infections in India,” the ICMR said in a report published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research on Friday. A total of 30,283 households were visited and 28,000 individuals enrolled for the nationwide survey. The seroprevalence ranged between 0.62% and 1.03% across districts.

“Population-weighted seroprevalence after adjusting for test performance was 0.73%. Males living in urban slums and occupation with high risk of exposure to potentially infected persons were associated with seropositivity. A cumulative 6,468,388 adult infections were estimated in India by early May,” ICMR said. A sero survey tests for antibodies that are triggered by a virus and can indicate the percentage of people who may have been exposed.

According to Girdhar Babu, a member of the ICMR taskforce, the findings had both bad and good news. “In early May 2020, it indicates that most of the population remains susceptible to infection. Seroprevalence estimates conducted later in the epidemic or in the settings with higher prevalence, will provide more reliable infection-to-case and infection-to-fatality ratios,” he said.

According to the survey “the overall ICR (infection to case ratio) was between 81.6 and 130.1 with May 11 and May 3, 2020 as plausible reference points for reported cases. The IFR (infection to fatality ratio) in the surveyed districts from high stratum, where death reporting was more robust, was 11.72 to 15.04 per 10,000 adults, using May 24 and June 1 as plausible reference points for reported deaths,” it said.

Significantly, 856,062 infections were in zero-case districts. At the time of the survey, there were 233 zero-case districts. The report found India’s infection fatality rate (IFR) was underestimated. “Considering that the death reporting in India is incomplete, and differences in access to testing facilities across districts necessary for declaring the Covid-19 confirmed deaths, the present IFR is likely an underestimate,” it said.

The study found that while the overall IFR based on the sero survey findings was much lower than that reported from Santa Clara County in the US (0.12-0.2%), Iran (0.08-0.12%), Brazil and Spain (1%), the IFR from the high-stratum districts, where reporting is assumed to be more complete, was similar to them.

Contrary to previous understanding, the virus was already widespread in rural areas, with 69.4% of the population surveyed showing IgG antibodies. The figure was 15.9% in urban slums and 14.6% in other urban areas.

 

beijingwalker

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India’s covid caseload is much higher, says ICMR
Updated: 12 Sep 2020, 06:46 AM ISTNeetu Chandra Sharma
  • The study estimated that 6.47 million Indians were infected by the coronavirus by mid-May
  • That compares with the official tally of 85,856 as on 15 May, indicating that millions of sick people were left undiagnosed and may have unknowingly spread the virus

India’s official coronavirus case count has significantly underestimated the number of infected people, according to a national serological survey conducted by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).
The study estimated that 6.47 million Indians were infected by the coronavirus by mid-May.

That compares with the official tally of 85,856 as on 15 May, indicating that millions of sick people were left undiagnosed and may have unknowingly spread the virus.

For every covid case that was detected in May, there were 82-130 infections that went undiagnosed, according to the study published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research.

The overall seroprevalence, or the number of people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 by mid-May,was just 0.73% of the Indian adult population, the study found.


The low prevalence indicates that India is still in the early phase of the epidemic, much below the herd immunity threshold, when the virus can no longer spread easily. Health experts estimate herd immunity to kick in once at least half the population has developed immunity to the deadly virus.

Meanwhile, infections in India are growing faster than any other country in the world, with the number of new daily cases nearing the 100,000 mark, substantially higher than the US, which has the highest caseload in the world.

ICMR’s serology survey was conducted between 11 May and 4 June in 70 districts. Serum samples of 28,000 individuals were tested for covid-19 antibodies.

Public health experts claim that India is likely to have a long peak. “First the infection was in urban areas, so the peak was observed, but slowly infection has moved to small cities and rural areas of the country where more than 60% of the population lives, so we are going to have a bigger long peak," said Dr Jugal Kishore, professor and head, department of community medicine, Safdarjung Hospital.

 

crankthatskunk

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I wrote here few months back i think it was April/May that the cases in India are far more than it is reported, same goes for the death.

I have maintained that the figures released by almost all countries are skewed and are not true figures.
The picture I got from Pakistan after talking to people I know, I have concluded that the infection was far far higher than the reported figures.

For example, one family I know, I was told almost everyone of them suffered from the symptoms for few days, including the extended family. None of them went for tests for fear that they would be kept there. All kind of scare stories were spread that kept people out of the hospital and going for the tests.
Considering that and other stories I have heard, it can be safely concluded that the rate of infections and deaths are far far higher than reported in the Sub-Continent.
 

beijingwalker

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Worst is, India haven't peak!
Virus in India is totally out of control

"The low prevalence indicates that India is still in the early phase of the epidemic, much below the herd immunity threshold, when the virus can no longer spread easily. Health experts estimate herd immunity to kick in once at least half the population has developed immunity to the deadly virus. "
 

Mista

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I have maintained that the figures released by almost all countries are skewed and are not true figures.
Most if not all countries undercount. Not due to fraud but the lack of capability to detect 100% of cases, especially when most cases are asymptomatic.

Eg; 96% of detected cases in Singapore yesterday are asymptomatic, and none are in ICU for the past few months. Singapore also includes cases detected through antibody tests, which makes up around 30% of our daily cases yesterday.


That's why you have varying levels of mortality rate between countries. From 0.047% in Singapore to 12% in Italy, or a 255x difference in mortality rate. It's not that our healthcare system is so much superior. We just have a much more rigorous testing regime which expands the denominator. OTOH in Sweden they test only hospitalized cases, which artificially inflates the mortality rate.
 
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Type59

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Lack of tapped water makes hand washing a luxury. They failing on basic prevention method of good hygiene.
 

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