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India erodes US expectations

lem34

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India erodes US expectations
Col M Hanif (R)

Stating that previous sanctions were not really hurting Iran, realizing that China and Russia will not support approval of any more sanctions in the UNSC, the USA and EU have announced fresh sanctions hitting Iran’s oil exports. The US President Barak Obama has announced freezing of Iran governments’ assets held or traded in the US. These sanctions also included blocks on Central Bank of Iran giving American institutions the powers to freeze the assets related to the Central Bank of Iran.

The US government thinks that these sanctions will badly hit Iranian oil exports since oil sale transactions are done through Central Bank of Iran. EU countries have also imposed sanctions on Iran’s Central and other banks and have declared to cease purchase of Iranian oil with effect from 1 July 2012. The objective of these sanctions is to squeeze availability of oil revenues to Iran so that it finds it difficult to run the government affairs as well as to continue with its nuclear programme. Along with these sanctions, to compensate the international oil market for Iranian oil and keep its prices under control, the US is also trying to convince some Middle Eastern and African oil producing countries to increase their crude production. In this context the US is also trying to entice and pressurize its Asian and other friends for boycotting purchase of oil from Iran.

In this regard the US was expecting that India being its strategic partner will cooperate in any case. However India has made a policy decision that it will comply only with the UN imposed sanctions on Iran and not the sanctions imposed by individual countries such as the US and EU. Earlier, Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, during his recent visit to the US said that India will not scale down its petroleum imports from Iran despite the sanctions of the US and Europe. India has also made an agreement with Iran to make 45 percent of its oil payments in Indian Rupees. No doubt this Indian pronouncement has surprised many in the US. Some US Congressmen have already suggested to new US Ambassador to India to convince its leadership to comply with US imposed sanctions on Iran failing which they will consider that Indian policy was serving Iranian interests which was detrimental to US goals. India’s decision, against US expectations, is although good for Iran and the regional environment, from US perspective the question arises whether, being a strategic partner of the US, India will serve US interests in Asia at the cost of sacrificing its core national interests?

The above mentioned Indian policy decision appears to be motivated by many strategic reasons. Firstly, India wants to maintain and strengthen its traditional friendship with Iran to preserve its economic ties as well as common geopolitical interests linked with that country. India wants to consolidate her influence in Afghanistan to the exclusion of Pakistan to exploit Balochistan situation to its advantage and to block Pakistan’s emerging linkages with the Central Asian States. Secondly, she wants to facilitate Central Asian and Russian trade through Chahbahar port of Iran thus denying an opportunity to Pakistan of sharing trade benefits by offering this facility to Russia and Central Asia via Gawadar port. For this purpose India has already constructed a road connecting Chahbahar port with Afghanistan’s road head on Iran’s border. Thirdly India’s decision of not complying with individual countries’ sanctions in this case indicates that she intends to pursue an Asia friendly policy with respect to Asia’s major powers. In this regard she wants to be seen as having perceptive alignment with the Russian and Chinese thinking on the subject. This implies that India desires to pursue an independent foreign policy to preserve its core national interests in Asia and it does not want to generate policies which are tangent to the policies of major powers of Asia on major disputes located in the this continent. This also reflects that in future India will not toe US line blindly and will not create rift with any major Asian power just to please the US. Thus, quite early in its happening, US-India’s new found strategic partnership has hit a snag giving an indication that many more such snags might come in future also thus putting sustainability of this friendship in question.

This Indian position of course creates a perception that objectives of developing strategic partnership between the US and India as thought out by both countries are quite divergent. Whereas the US must have thought to exploit India as a big market for their investment/ exports and mainly to use it as a counterweight to Russia and China to have its foothold in Asia, India seems to have thought to cooperate with the US only selectively where ever its core interests were not being hurt and mainly to draw US/ EU countries direct investment, procure Western missile/nuclear technologies and modern weapon systems etc, etc.

The aforementioned self perceived lucrative objectives on part of the US explain why it went out of the way to give nuclear deal to India by prevailing upon NSG countries to give waiver to India as a non signatory to NPT for sharing nuclear technology with this country as a basis for developing long term strategic partnership and supporting India to rise as a major world power. On the other hand India was keen to have strategic partnership with the US to fulfill its own perceived commercial and defence related objectives presuming to extend only selective cooperation to the US and EU on strategic issues without hurting its core national interests. That is why US leadership has felt embarrassed because of India’s this strategic decision of not extending cooperation to the US because its core interests will be hurt in this part of Asia whereas the US had probably thought that India as a close friend (almost considered as an ally) will surely side with her on the issue of nuclear related sanctions on Iran. Recently India has also disappointed the US on another account by deciding to purchase 126 – French made Rifle combat aircraft by dropping airplanes deals with Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin of the US based on technical grounds.

These Indian policy reflections must be a dilemma for the US leadership to think and appreciate whether heavily drummed up strategic partnership with India will bring some commercial benefits only rather than giving expected major strategic gains in Asia. Here it can be concluded that rather than serving US interests, India is likely to use the US and EU countries to draw major strategic advantages such as attracting foreign direct investments, modern industrial technology and trade benefits for becoming an economic superpower and sharing missile, nuclear and space technologies for developing intercontinental ballistic missiles, thermo nuclear weapons, nuclear submarines, missile defence systems, modern satellites and space vehicles for becoming military superpower probably even to compete with the US as a world power one day. Already there is a news that India is about to conduct a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. US and EU should question themselves that why India wants to develop such missiles The possibility of India becoming an unbridled major economic and military power cannot be ruled out in the long run if the US and EU countries continue to trust India blindly and keep their economic, investment, civilian and military technology markets open to her for next few decades. Therefore in this situation it might be prudent to suggest to US policy makers to review and adjust their India centric Asia policy and should not ignore other friends in South Asia at the cost of India.
 

ZABASHO

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it seems more like that Pakistan is the one whose expectations were eroded by India. They thought that everyone else is like them..... having friendly relations with US meant for Pakistan that India is their lap-dog... :D
(not) sorry for letting you guys down but for us allying ourselves with US didn't mean to do what Pakistan did!
 

lem34

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it seems more like that Pakistan is the one whose expectations were eroded by India. They thought that everyone else is like them..... having friendly relations with US meant for Pakistan that India is their lap-dog... :D
(not) sorry for letting you guys down but for us allying ourselves with US didn't mean to do what Pakistan did!

Its early days lets see what the future holds.
 

kingkobra

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These Indian policy reflections must be a dilemma for the US leadership to think and appreciate whether heavily drummed up strategic partnership with India will bring some commercial benefits only rather than giving expected major strategic gains in Asia. Here it can be concluded that rather than serving US interests, India is likely to use the US and EU countries to draw major strategic advantages such as attracting foreign direct investments, modern industrial technology and trade benefits for becoming an economic superpower and sharing missile, nuclear and space technologies for developing intercontinental ballistic missiles, thermo nuclear weapons, nuclear submarines, missile defence systems, modern satellites and space vehicles for becoming military superpower probably even to compete with the US as a world power one day. Already there is a news that India is about to conduct a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. US and EU should question themselves that why India wants to develop such missiles The possibility of India becoming an unbridled major economic and military power cannot be ruled out in the long run if the US and EU countries continue to trust India blindly and keep their economic, investment, civilian and military technology markets open to her for next few decades. Therefore in this situation it might be prudent to suggest to US policy makers to review and adjust their India centric Asia policy and should not ignore other friends in South Asia at the cost of India.

:pop: :pop: :pop:
mission-accomplished.jpg
 

kingkobra

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Really. Tell me what thousand words you see in words.

thousand words i see in words??
i think you mean to say in pictures..

well India's policy on Iran is definitely opposite to what many pakistanis have expected...
the para i quoted clearly shows another frustration of pakistan which is USA's new found trust with India...the writer goes on to suggest USA Policy makers to review their India centric policies...mission accomplished indeed..thanks to indian policy makers :)
 

Paan Singh

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Therefore in this situation it might be prudent to suggest to US policy makers to review and adjust their India centric Asia policy and should not ignore other friends in South Asia at the cost of India.

it clearly states that author wants india to be a stooge of U.S and also talk about US ignorance of pakistan for india;).
this is we called as jealousy
 

pmukherjee

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Are we as Indians bothered about what Pakistan expected us to do and in which way we belied their expectations and in having done that, now, expect them to expect only the unexpected from us. Wow!! Is the Indian foreign policy all about Pakistani expectations or lack of the same? Or is the Indian foreign policy designed to meet expectations and aspirations of Indians, in the short, medium and long terms? This question arose due to the tenor of the posts by some of my fellow countrymen in this thread.

Now, coming on to America. More dashed expectations there, if the contents of the article are to be believed. The author states that we disappointed the Americans, but he also admits that giving in to American sanctions on Iran would have hurt India's core interests. Does this therefore imply that we were expected to toe the US (and EU) line and prejudice our own core national interests? And since we did not do so (as expected), we therefore let down our 'strategic buddies'. Aren't there some basic contradictions in all this? Strategic partners are expected to look after each other's strategic interests, right? So are we in a supposed strategic partnership in which our core national interests are subordinate to those of the other partner?

OK, so we look after our own interests and decide that we do not wish to screw Iran because in doing so, we would screw ourselves. Does this really disappoint America? Would America have acted any differently? I think not. I think that all these sentiments of belied expectations and disappointment that are emerging in the US media do not really reflect the true reading of the situation by the US policy makers. I think these are merely pressure tactics to convince India to fall in line. They are very calculated and carefully crafted measures to stimulate public opinion in India by provoking the pro US lobby in the Indian government and Indian intellectuals while simultaneously bring down pressure from the Indian-American community. The Israel factor and Saudi factor are a part of this effort to convince India to change her mind. What happens if India does not change her mind? Nothing. The US will work around the situation to try and achieve its goals despite the Indian position. They do not really expect us to hurt ourselves but are hoping that we do so. If we fall in line, great. If we don't, it is still OK.

There is no unwinding of the Indo-US strategic relationship. As long as China remains hostile to India and the US, this relationship will remain in place. Despite all the F-18s we don't buy from them and all the non UNSC sanctions we don't abide by. America does not expect us to do what is not in our national interest. If they really do so, then they do not really want India as a strategic partner and if that be the case, then we do not owe anything to the US, and they should not really expect anything from us, no? Both ways, India's national interest comes first always and every time.
 

illusion8

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Are we as Indians bothered about what Pakistan expected us to do and in which way we belied their expectations and in having done that, now, expect them to expect only the unexpected from us. Wow!! Is the Indian foreign policy all about Pakistani expectations or lack of the same? Or is the Indian foreign policy designed to meet expectations and aspirations of Indians, in the short, medium and long terms? This question arose due to the tenor of the posts by some of my fellow countrymen in this thread.

Now, coming on to America. More dashed expectations there, if the contents of the article are to be believed. The author states that we disappointed the Americans, but he also admits that giving in to American sanctions on Iran would have hurt India's core interests. Does this therefore imply that we were expected to toe the US (and EU) line and prejudice our own core national interests? And since we did not do so (as expected), we therefore let down our 'strategic buddies'. Aren't there some basic contradictions in all this? Strategic partners are expected to look after each other's strategic interests, right? So are we in a supposed strategic partnership in which our core national interests are subordinate to those of the other partner?

OK, so we look after our own interests and decide that we do not wish to screw Iran because in doing so, we would screw ourselves. Does this really disappoint America? Would America have acted any differently? I think not. I think that all these sentiments of belied expectations and disappointment that are emerging in the US media do not really reflect the true reading of the situation by the US policy makers. I think these are merely pressure tactics to convince India to fall in line. They are very calculated and carefully crafted measures to stimulate public opinion in India by provoking the pro US lobby in the Indian government and Indian intellectuals while simultaneously bring down pressure from the Indian-American community. The Israel factor and Saudi factor are a part of this effort to convince India to change her mind. What happens if India does not change her mind? Nothing. The US will work around the situation to try and achieve its goals despite the Indian position. They do not really expect us to hurt ourselves but are hoping that we do so. If we fall in line, great. If we don't, it is still OK.

There is no unwinding of the Indo-US strategic relationship. As long as China remains hostile to India and the US, this relationship will remain in place. Despite all the F-18s we don't buy from them and all the non UNSC sanctions we don't abide by. America does not expect us to do what is not in our national interest. If they really do so, then they do not really want India as a strategic partner and if that be the case, then we do not owe anything to the US, and they should not really expect anything from us, no? Both ways, India's national interest comes first always and every time.

Excellent Post Sir :tup::tup:
 

sexy gun

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Are we as Indians bothered about what Pakistan expected us to do and in which way we belied their expectations and in having done that, now, expect them to expect only the unexpected from us. Wow!! Is the Indian foreign policy all about Pakistani expectations or lack of the same? Or is the Indian foreign policy designed to meet expectations and aspirations of Indians, in the short, medium and long terms? This question arose due to the tenor of the posts by some of my fellow countrymen in this thread.

Now, coming on to America. More dashed expectations there, if the contents of the article are to be believed. The author states that we disappointed the Americans, but he also admits that giving in to American sanctions on Iran would have hurt India's core interests. Does this therefore imply that we were expected to toe the US (and EU) line and prejudice our own core national interests? And since we did not do so (as expected), we therefore let down our 'strategic buddies'. Aren't there some basic contradictions in all this? Strategic partners are expected to look after each other's strategic interests, right? So are we in a supposed strategic partnership in which our core national interests are subordinate to those of the other partner?

OK, so we look after our own interests and decide that we do not wish to screw Iran because in doing so, we would screw ourselves. Does this really disappoint America? Would America have acted any differently? I think not. I think that all these sentiments of belied expectations and disappointment that are emerging in the US media do not really reflect the true reading of the situation by the US policy makers. I think these are merely pressure tactics to convince India to fall in line. They are very calculated and carefully crafted measures to stimulate public opinion in India by provoking the pro US lobby in the Indian government and Indian intellectuals while simultaneously bring down pressure from the Indian-American community. The Israel factor and Saudi factor are a part of this effort to convince India to change her mind. What happens if India does not change her mind? Nothing. The US will work around the situation to try and achieve its goals despite the Indian position. They do not really expect us to hurt ourselves but are hoping that we do so. If we fall in line, great. If we don't, it is still OK.

There is no unwinding of the Indo-US strategic relationship. As long as China remains hostile to India and the US, this relationship will remain in place. Despite all the F-18s we don't buy from them and all the non UNSC sanctions we don't abide by. America does not expect us to do what is not in our national interest. If they really do so, then they do not really want India as a strategic partner and if that be the case, then we do not owe anything to the US, and they should not really expect anything from us, no? Both ways, India's national interest comes first always and every time.

Pakistan acted like US lapdogs after 9/11 and took the bait ( U are either with US or against it ) and they think that these are the only two options available in this world. Musharraf clearly failed to extract the kind of leverage which could have been extracted out of US by leasing them bases.

Now they expect India to act fools like them which is clearly not the case. When the IRAN oil issue came up, pakistani members were falling over one another congratulating to find India is a spot (similar to the one they were in after 9/11). Obviously, South Block have dealt the situation with much more ease and that is the source of all these frustrated articles.

Every other day some pk/BD member will post such BS articles in some form or other. We can simply ignore them or redirect them to the above post.

@pmukherjee : Nicely put up. :)
 

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