• Sunday, January 19, 2020

India Economists’ Embarrassing Confession: They Don’t Know What GDP Is

Discussion in 'Central & South Asia' started by by78, Feb 7, 2015.

  1. by78

    by78 BANNED

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    It appears that India faked its GDP growth data...


    India Economists’ Embarrassing Confession: They Don’t Know What GDP Is - India Real Time - WSJ

    India’s radically revised gross domestic product data have apparently left economists dazed and confused because they are uncharacteristically silent about what growth was last quarter.

    India is scheduled to announce GDP figures for the quarter ended Dec. 31 on Monday but instead of the regular rush of forecasts, economists seem to have created a cartel of silence, choosing not to make predictions using India’s new methodology.

    Last week India surprised all the experts by recalculating GDP growth for the fiscal year ended March. Using a new calculation method, India’s economy expanded 6.9% that year, well above the 4.7% growth the country had announced earlier.

    “The revision was massive,” said Siddhartha Sanyal, India economist at Barclays. “We don’t know what the GDP was in the previous quarter, so how do we estimate what is going to happen?”

    The change happened because the government brought forward the base year used in GDP calculations by seven years to fiscal 2012. It also switched from using production costs to market prices.

    While the headline growth figure shot up with the new calculations, the absolute GDP figure was basically the same as it was before, making it hard for economists to figure out exactly where the new-found growth came from. Meanwhile, the government didn’t give the revised quarterly data or new calculations for this year.

    “We are completely blind at the moment,” said Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank.

    While the new numbers suggest that last year the economy was rebounding strongly, some economists are still skeptical. Most other indicators that year suggested growth was sputtering, they said.

    “I am not convinced that there is (such) good news,” said Glenn Levine, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If it’s true that the economy is growing close to 7%, then that suggests there isn’t much slack in the economy.”

    That’s something economists are finding hard to digest given other indicators such as industrial production have pointed to weakness.

    With a lot of questions about the new data still remaining unanswered, economists are only estimating growth for last quarter based on the old method even though the government won’t be announcing those numbers anymore.

    Forecasts of eight economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal using the now-outdated method range between 5.0% and 5.5%, compared with the 5.3% expansion in the September quarter.

    While few will venture a guess on what numbers will be announced Monday, “the broader picture is that the economy is improving,” said Axis Bank’s Mr. Bhattacharya.

    follow @WSJIndia
     
  2. Luca1

    Luca1 SENIOR MEMBER

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    India can revised its figure from the past as well. So India can claim now that it has over taken China back in 2007 and become a superpower in 2012. However it's absolute GDP is still the same. With the same number of people under poverty, same high child mortality rate. Same amount of violence, racism and religious intolerance. Just higher GDP growth rate. But all the Indian can now boast.
     
  3. WAR-rior

    WAR-rior SENIOR MEMBER

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    And how is ur blabber related to the topic? This is a technical thread. Better speak bout methodology rather than bullshit.

    Disclaimer: Those who don't understand the content of the thread rather stay out.
     
  4. Magnet

    Magnet FULL MEMBER

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    India would do any thing ... india would invest new calculatin to match up with China they can do anything what do you expect from Pm like modi .... they are all liers
     
  5. WAR-rior

    WAR-rior SENIOR MEMBER

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    Wow What an enlighting response. And now my Sire if u are done with furstration vomit then plz can we stick to topic. Invite u to talk more bout this new method. How modern is it in relation to age old parameters?I wud request an intellegent person who knows bout so many things n economical studies, to contribute to this thread constructively.
     
  6. Luca1

    Luca1 SENIOR MEMBER

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    To Indians GDP figure is just a political tool.
     
  7. RisingShiningSuperpower

    RisingShiningSuperpower BANNED

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    I welcome the new GDP calculations. They show the reality in India.

    India has been growing very fast. Modi-ji will make it go faster.

    India will definitely surpass China and America to become a superpower by 2020!
     
  8. xyxmt

    xyxmt ELITE MEMBER

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    Ancient Indian invented GDP calculation
     
  9. RisingShiningSuperpower

    RisingShiningSuperpower BANNED

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    Ancient India was home to all knowledge, all wisdom, all languages, all technologies, and all religions. Did you know that even Jesus Christ studied at Nalanda University?

    You can't put a number on such splendid achievements!
     
  10. xyxmt

    xyxmt ELITE MEMBER

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    Is it me or more jokes coming out of India ever since BJP came to power. Will Modi prove to be Indian Imran.
     
  11. Luca1

    Luca1 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Really, was Jesus a classmate of Confucius and Aristotle in Naranda university? Wow, India, is so Amazing,so advanced. I believe Confucius didn't do that well in his transwarp drive course in Naranda interplanetary engineer major.
     
  12. Ryuzaki

    Ryuzaki SENIOR MEMBER

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  13. SelfServeFive

    SelfServeFive BANNED

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    Indian plumbers have never seen a toilet either.
     
  14. RisingShiningSuperpower

    RisingShiningSuperpower BANNED

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    It was rumored that Confucius too had studied at Nalanda University. If not, he certainly has read and received the wisdom from ancient Vedic texts.

    As for Aristotle, it's a fact that he was a student at Nalanda. There is no doubt about that!
     
  15. Echo_419

    Echo_419 ELITE MEMBER

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    you srsly need to change your Flags,Americans are not the Brightest people out there but they sure as hell Dumb Like you

    & to you every thread about India is a opportunity to troll