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In Case of India-China War, Outcome Will be Decided Within Hours: Pravin Sawhney

Saudang

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let me put some prospective on certain points on both the author and what he said. Would request all members to respond with logic and reason, and no trolling or abuse -

1. Pravin Sawhney was a mid rank Indian army officer with 13 years of service history before he was court marshaled in 1991 for disciplinary issues. since then he has been trying to become someone including a journalist. Question is - do anyone of you believe that he would have any access to any relevant source in Indian defense establishment given that he was blacklisted 3 decades ago ?

2. "outcome will be decided in 12 hours" - for god's sake just be real. we have just seen the world superpower US wrapping up their war against a rug tug insurgent like Taliban which they could not finish off after 20 years of efforts .. but this gentleman believes that world's 2nd /3rd strongest military can impose an outcome on world's 4th strongest power (as per Jan's) in 12 hours? this statement is beyond hilarious

3. forget about 12 hours, even if China could have achieved that in 12 days or 120 days or 12 months, they would have been hosting red flag in Arunachal Pradesh (south Tibet as per them) or in Taipei by now. By that logic US should have defeated Taliban in 12 minutes but it took them 20 years and failed after that..

4. There is a gold standard among Pakistani PDF members not to believe in any Indian sources - be it experts or news channels. But when it comes to Parvin Sawney or Ashok Sawin, these same members will take every word by their heart, even if its coming form their backside ?? decide on to believe in Indian or not to believe.. you should also by that logic also believe Major Gaurav Arya, ex Indian Army and someone who has far better network with military establishment than the dinosaur Pravin Sawney..

5. How many members here accept statements by Husain Haqqani and Tarek Fateh ? Pravin Sawney or Ashok Sawin are Indian versions of Hussain Haqqani or Take Fateh. Either you accept all or reject all..
 

serenity

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let me put some prospective on certain points on both the author and what he said. Would request all members to respond with logic and reason, and no trolling or abuse -

1. Pravin Sawhney was a mid rank Indian army officer with 13 years of service history before he was court marshaled in 1991 for disciplinary issues. since then he has been trying to become someone including a journalist. Question is - do anyone of you believe that he would have any access to any relevant source in Indian defense establishment given that he was blacklisted 3 decades ago ?

2. "outcome will be decided in 12 hours" - for god's sake just be real. we have just seen the world superpower US wrapping up their war against a rug tug insurgent like Taliban which they could not finish off after 20 years of efforts .. but this gentleman believes that world's 2nd /3rd strongest military can impose an outcome on world's 4th strongest power (as per Jan's) in 12 hours? this statement is beyond hilarious

3. forget about 12 hours, even if China could have achieved that in 12 days or 120 days or 12 months, they would have been hosting red flag in Arunachal Pradesh (south Tibet as per them) or in Taipei by now. By that logic US should have defeated Taliban in 12 minutes but it took them 20 years and failed after that..

4. There is a gold standard among Pakistani PDF members not to believe in any Indian sources - be it experts or news channels. But when it comes to Parvin Sawney or Ashok Sawin, these same members will take every word by their heart, even if its coming form their backside ?? decide on to believe in Indian or not to believe.. you should also by that logic also believe Major Gaurav Arya, ex Indian Army and someone who has far better network with military establishment than the dinosaur Pravin Sawney..

5. How many members here accept statements by Husain Haqqani and Tarek Fateh ? Pravin Sawney or Ashok Sawin are Indian versions of Hussain Haqqani or Take Fateh. Either you accept all or reject all..
The statement decided within 12 hours may not be too sensible because I do not trust Pravin to have really inside knowledge of PLA or Indian military anymore. No one knows for sure even those inside PLA and Indian military since they don't know each other fully.

However your comparison with US and Afghanistan is also quite incorrect because Pravin is referring to formal military. As in the outcome of formal engagement will be determined within 12 hours of conflict as both sides find out just how much the gap is in actual fighting.

Comparing with US and Afghanistan is not appropriate because Taliban is not truly formal military. If you want to say PLA defeat IA within 12 hours and then defeat India in 12 hours for occupation? Of course that would be impossible. That is the comparison with the US and Afghanistan. They are fighting a different kind of war. Pravin only means the formal military engagement will last maybe around 12 hours before it becomes clear how big the gap is and which formal military will certainly lose.
 

Saudang

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Only children " accept all or reject all"

Adults actually have the capability to judge each source of information and deciede to accept or reject them on Their merit.
ok noted.. what is your logic of accepting Pravin Sawney's statements and rejecting Husain Haqqani ?

Hussain is way more recent and senior in stature compared to Pravin Sawney, but you must have some solid reason to believe him
 

FairAndUnbiased

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let me put some prospective on certain points on both the author and what he said. Would request all members to respond with logic and reason, and no trolling or abuse -

1. Pravin Sawhney was a mid rank Indian army officer with 13 years of service history before he was court marshaled in 1991 for disciplinary issues. since then he has been trying to become someone including a journalist. Question is - do anyone of you believe that he would have any access to any relevant source in Indian defense establishment given that he was blacklisted 3 decades ago ?

2. "outcome will be decided in 12 hours" - for god's sake just be real. we have just seen the world superpower US wrapping up their war against a rug tug insurgent like Taliban which they could not finish off after 20 years of efforts .. but this gentleman believes that world's 2nd /3rd strongest military can impose an outcome on world's 4th strongest power (as per Jan's) in 12 hours? this statement is beyond hilarious

3. forget about 12 hours, even if China could have achieved that in 12 days or 120 days or 12 months, they would have been hosting red flag in Arunachal Pradesh (south Tibet as per them) or in Taipei by now. By that logic US should have defeated Taliban in 12 minutes but it took them 20 years and failed after that..

4. There is a gold standard among Pakistani PDF members not to believe in any Indian sources - be it experts or news channels. But when it comes to Parvin Sawney or Ashok Sawin, these same members will take every word by their heart, even if its coming form their backside ?? decide on to believe in Indian or not to believe.. you should also by that logic also believe Major Gaurav Arya, ex Indian Army and someone who has far better network with military establishment than the dinosaur Pravin Sawney..

5. How many members here accept statements by Husain Haqqani and Tarek Fateh ? Pravin Sawney or Ashok Sawin are Indian versions of Hussain Haqqani or Take Fateh. Either you accept all or reject all..
Whose 4th? I hope you don't claim it's India... India is at best 5th/6th after US/CN/RU/FR
 

xuxu1457

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India's army still prepare for fighting a war as the style of World War I or World War II war. Positional warfare, putting a lot of troops on the border
The Chinese army has long been transformed into an all-area operation. The entire Chinese army can operate rapidly throughout the country without having to be deployed to the border.China's borders are filled with border guards and armed police, not actual combat troops. China's actual attacking force, the army's 13 group armies, is far from the border,But they can attack the border at any time.
 

Super Falcon

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Only issu ed in developnent in region is indiaits time to cut off the snake from the neck once it for all
 

Saudang

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The statement decided within 12 hours may not be too sensible because I do not trust Pravin to have really inside knowledge of PLA or Indian military anymore. No one knows for sure even those inside PLA and Indian military since they don't know each other fully.

However your comparison with US and Afghanistan is also quite incorrect because Pravin is referring to formal military. As in the outcome of formal engagement will be determined within 12 hours of conflict as both sides find out just how much the gap is in actual fighting.

Comparing with US and Afghanistan is not appropriate because Taliban is not truly formal military. If you want to say PLA defeat IA within 12 hours and then defeat India in 12 hours for occupation? Of course that would be impossible. That is the comparison with the US and Afghanistan. They are fighting a different kind of war. Pravin only means the formal military engagement will last maybe around 12 hours before it becomes clear how big the gap is and which formal military will certainly lose.
PLA and Indian Army are not some amateur boxers who will meet for the first time in the ring and have no idea about each other. these militaries are facing each other for last 7 decades and would have far greater understanding of each others capabilities than anyone like Pravin Sawney.. the reason they are not fighting is because both the armies know what can be achieved militarily and what can't be. both the armies don't even use firearm in the boarder to avoid even little escalation into larger conflicts. last time they fought with sticks and rods for hours, there was no winner..

PLA is superior to Indian Army is terms of quantity and also quality, but the differential is nowhere as big to outline the outcome in 12 hours. But if the IA has to fight PLA for few months across the Himalayas, than these gaps in quantity and quality will tilt the result in PLA's favor, and i have no doubt about it. Its much like India vs Pakistan situation..

USA was not defeated by the Taliban in a single battle over last 20 years. Its USA's fatigue both in terms of human and economic cost that is forcing them to leave Afghanistan. question is whether a Richer and more sophisticated China is willing to bear tremendous human and economic cost to fight another large military power?
Whose 4th? I hope you don't claim it's India... India is at best 5th/6th after US/CN/RU/FR
Unless you have another source to prove your statement ..

 

serenity

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PLA and Indian Army are not some amateur boxers who will meet for the first time in the ring and have no idea about each other. these militaries are facing each other for last 7 decades and would have far greater understanding of each others capabilities than anyone like Pravin Sawney.. the reason they are not fighting is because both the armies know what can be achieved militarily and what can't be. both the armies don't even use firearm in the boarder to avoid even little escalation into larger conflicts. last time they fought with sticks and rods for hours, there was no winner..

PLA is superior to Indian Army is terms of quantity and also quality, but the differential is nowhere as big to outline the outcome in 12 hours. But if the IA has to fight PLA for few months across the Himalayas, than these gaps in quantity and quality will tilt the result in PLA's favor, and i have no doubt about it. Its much like India vs Pakistan situation..

USA was not defeated by the Taliban in a single battle over last 20 years. Its USA's fatigue both in terms of human and economic cost that is forcing them to leave Afghanistan. question is whether a Richer and more sophisticated China is willing to bear tremendous human and economic cost to fight another large military power?


Unless you have another source to prove your statement ..

My original response to you was to remind that there is a big difference between two formal militaries fighting than US formal military fighting insurgents. Formal military fights can end within hours. Russia vs USA fight could end within 12 hours with outcome becoming very obvious. I think this is what Pravin means.

Pravin is convinced China has domains of warfighting that India is not familiar with and so that is where his statement comes from. He is not comparing how many guns and bullets each side has but if India military's electronic devices will work when the fighting starts? Will the radars pick up targets accurately like predicted or assumed? That sort of stuff. I was not commenting on whether he is right but correcting your comparison between two very different things.

Now in reality I don't think PLA and Indian military know enough about each other in those areas but Pravin believes what he believes and that is where his statement comes from. It is not tank vs tank or fighter vs fighter and missile vs missile and how many, how good so on.
 

IblinI

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the reason they are not fighting is because both the armies know what can be achieved militarily and what can't be.
The reason they are not fighting is not because of the armies but the top brass's decision.
 

Saudang

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My original response to you was to remind that there is a big difference between two formal militaries fighting than US formal military fighting insurgents. Formal military fights can end within hours. Russia vs USA fight could end within 12 hours with outcome becoming very obvious. I think this is what Pravin means.

Pravin is convinced China has domains of warfighting that India is not familiar with and so that is where his statement comes from. He is not comparing how many guns and bullets each side has but if India military's electronic devices will work when the fighting starts? Will the radars pick up targets accurately like predicted or assumed? That sort of stuff. I was not commenting on whether he is right but correcting your comparison between two very different things.

Now in reality I don't think PLA and Indian military know enough about each other in those areas but Pravin believes what he believes and that is where his statement comes from. It is not tank vs tank or fighter vs fighter and missile vs missile and how many, how good so on.
the outcome of the war will be obvious in few hours if one the two militaries able to mount an surprise terminal attack on the other to capitulate the other. But both these countries are huge and military infrastructure is very widespread for anyone of achieve that practically. In addition, there is no visible evidence to indicate that PLA has some of these capabilities roll over the Indian military. If there is something Pravin Sawney knows about the PLA, that Indian Army is not aware of even after spending $72 billion on defense, than i guess Indian Military deserves to lose against PLA..
 

serenity

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the outcome of the war will be obvious in few hours if one the two militaries able to mount an surprise terminal attack on the other to capitulate the other. But both these countries are huge and military infrastructure is very widespread for anyone of achieve that practically. In addition, there is no visible evidence to indicate that PLA has some of these capabilities roll over the Indian military. If there is something Pravin Sawney knows about the PLA, that Indian Army is not aware of even after spending $72 billion on defense, than i guess Indian Military deserves to lose against PLA..
I don't think Pravin knows any particular thing. Pravin is just a bit more unbiased in assessing and he worries the Indian military being too political about everything is less aware and not even bother to learn more. But I agree that Indian military should definitely know more than Pravin. Anyway this is from Pravin's point of view where his statement is from.

I think it is quite likely India is not as familiar or invested into different domains of warfare such as cyber sphere or electronic warfare. Electronic warfare is bigger than entire airforce in terms of platform types and operations of which areas two participants will become fighting in. This domain is also much less clear than for example USA has stealth long range bomber and it is exposed. Of course we are not talking about secrets that are not shown. But when it is about electronic warfare, the enemy will know even less and be able to know less as it is more easily hidden.

I don't say China is strong in this field as compared to for example USA might be. There is a chance China is greater or Russia is for example. I think Pravin is convinced India is not and he has very good reason to think this.

So some domains of warfare like cyber ability to disrupt enemy's communication and function of everything like your banks and energy sector or your internet and whatever that can be disrupted. Electronic warfare is like an airforce or navy or army division. The equipment used by those three domains are surface and complementary to a combined type to achieve what some Chinese commenters call 1+1>2 result or I believe English would be greater than sum of. The calculations of how each input is used and acts is great in theory and planning but during war, no one can predict and no one anticipate enemy perfectly.

It is simply Pravin's belief that Indian military leaders are thinking about bullets when they should be thinking about other things. Anyway that is for him to say and for whoever to believe whatever they want. Believing something doesn't make it true.
 

Dustom999

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let me put some prospective on certain points on both the author and what he said. Would request all members to respond with logic and reason, and no trolling or abuse -

1. Pravin Sawhney was a mid rank Indian army officer with 13 years of service history before he was court marshaled in 1991 for disciplinary issues. since then he has been trying to become someone including a journalist. Question is - do anyone of you believe that he would have any access to any relevant source in Indian defense establishment given that he was blacklisted 3 decades ago ?

2. "outcome will be decided in 12 hours" - for god's sake just be real. we have just seen the world superpower US wrapping up their war against a rug tug insurgent like Taliban which they could not finish off after 20 years of efforts .. but this gentleman believes that world's 2nd /3rd strongest military can impose an outcome on world's 4th strongest power (as per Jan's) in 12 hours? this statement is beyond hilarious

3. forget about 12 hours, even if China could have achieved that in 12 days or 120 days or 12 months, they would have been hosting red flag in Arunachal Pradesh (south Tibet as per them) or in Taipei by now. By that logic US should have defeated Taliban in 12 minutes but it took them 20 years and failed after that..

4. There is a gold standard among Pakistani PDF members not to believe in any Indian sources - be it experts or news channels. But when it comes to Parvin Sawney or Ashok Sawin, these same members will take every word by their heart, even if its coming form their backside ?? decide on to believe in Indian or not to believe.. you should also by that logic also believe Major Gaurav Arya, ex Indian Army and someone who has far better network with military establishment than the dinosaur Pravin Sawney..

5. How many members here accept statements by Husain Haqqani and Tarek Fateh ? Pravin Sawney or Ashok Sawin are Indian versions of Hussain Haqqani or Take Fateh. Either you accept all or reject all..
He never faced court martial, infact he held appointment as Adjutant which is usually given to Disciplined OG types only. He took VRS and took on a more academic role thereafter in his private life.
I too don't agree with 12 or 24 hours time line. Although within 3-4 weeks clearcut lead in offensive initiative will emerge in PLAs favour.
 

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