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In a wartime clock from start to finish how long will it take Pakistan to conquer India - 2yr, 5yr or 10yr campaign

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Abdulaziz Al-Karimi

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India can’t defeat Pakistan militarily, says book


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NEW DELHI: India has no clarity about its military and strategic objectives vis-à-vis its stated adversaries, Pakistan and China, and can defeat neither of them in a war, a new book by N.C. Asthana, former Indian police officer respected for his insights into security affairs, says.

The Wire on Tuesday carried a review of the book National Security and Conventional Arms Race: Spectre of a Nuclear War. It quotes the book as seeing “a huge mismatch between the militaristic official and media rhetoric, on the one hand, and the reality, which is that India cannot defeat either country militarily”.

The reviewer, Siddharth Varadarajan, editor of the esteemed current affairs portal, quotes Asthana as suggesting that instead of pouring vast sums of money into expensive weapons imports, India would be better served by finding solutions to the security challenges both Pakistan and China present by strengthening itself internally and pursuing non-military solutions, including diplomacy.

Asthana also puts the lens on what he calls the “politics of warmongering”, which, according to him, has consumed public discourse in India over the past six years.

“Under the delusion that India has somehow, magically become invincible, he notes how a large number of Indians seem to be itching for a war.”

This invincibility narrative is both fuelled and strengthened by relentless arms imports. Asthana puts the figure India has spent on arms imports in the five years since 2014 at $14 billion, “and the undisclosed cost of the 36 Rafale jets purchased from Dassault Aviation is not included in this”.

But even this sum pales before the $130bn India is projected to spend on arms imports in the next decade, including on 100-plus even more expensive fighter jets to make up for the shortfall caused by the Modi government’s decision to scrap the earlier deal for 126 Rafales.

“As the fanfare over the arrival of the first Rafales showed, each of these purchases is hailed and sold to the public by the media as weapons that will flatten India’s enemies. But of course, this is far from the truth,” Varadarajan quotes the book as saying.

Asthana argues that the frenzied import of conventional weapons will never guarantee a permanent solution to the military problem posed by Pakistan or China because both the countries are nuclear-weapon states and cannot be decisively defeated on the battlefield.

“Given the myth of Indian invincibility, the futility of warmongering should be obvious. Yet, as the past few years have demonstrated, jingoism in India is at an all-time high,” the book notes.

“While conventional weapons can provide a tactical advantage in limited theatre conflicts short of war, the danger lies in escalation — which is hard to control at the best of times but especially so when the public discourse has been vitiated by the politics of warmongering.”

Asthana believes that exploiting enmity with Pakistan for electoral benefits has made Indian leaders victims of their own rhetoric, where they are left with a one-dimensional policy — one which is unrealistic in view of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Quoting Napoleon, he notes: “If they want peace, nations should avoid the pinpricks that precede cannon shots.”

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This is from a 2020 book.. I agree with some parts of his takes but there are other parts which he has not taken into count ''what if Pakistan launches mass offensive'' or where doctrine is based on offensive solely meaning a much more ambitious approach from the Pakistani side could literally throw spin into everything. Meaning preparing for such an offensive will call for probably the biggest land-offensive in scale ever carried out in history but Pakistan has the manpower to commit to such a vast scale offensive. The Indians are suspect hence in such scenario I would put the house on pakistan getting it done in 3 years max assuming this is an ambitious Pakistan but the result is completely depended on Pakistan's appraoches and manuvers including scale of ambitions
 

Abdulaziz Al-Karimi

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I really fail to see the humor in this.. In a conventional military sense it is completely doable for Pakistan to not only best India but completely eliminate them by annexing them if they commit some tactical mistakes during the initial engagement.. There are no pre-written winners in war but always the one whos capable of manuvering his foes wins.. Hence this is not only doable but highly likely and there is about as high as 50% probablitiy for Pakistan win but not gaining all of India in a nuclear war
 

Knockingdoors

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The approach towards the Indians should only be blitzkrieg. The Indians aren't good at adjusting to surprises once they are hit with tactical manuvers they don't understand.

They are high on self-delusion most of the time hence doing a major surprise on them will demoralize them majority of the time besides they aren't cut out for this as they are vegeterians or what not. Conquests, ruling or world hegemony etc etc they don't have experience in it. We ruled the sub-continent for 1000 years it was never a fluke... The Indians lack discpline.

There is no such political desire in Pakistan to annex India in fact it is viewed as bothersome but honest to god we could attain it if we wanted it extremely badly or if we were obsessed with it which is not the case as the expanionists are an extinct breed but damn I miss them and I hope they were miracluously revived but I have my doubts hence they are a bygone era.. The only way could happen if an Indian miscalculation occurs this could open the road for the revival.
 
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Big_bud

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After Ukraine vs Russia war, we know that its not easy to win a war against a determined adversary based on numbers only. India can inflict damage but can't "win" any objectives.
 

TNT

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We dont need to invade india, maybe just for diversion, but our main focus should be Kashmir and laddakh. Its the only area we can easily keep and defend after taking over. A massive and hard push through the working boundary through pathankot straight to chinese border, cutting off all of J&K and laddakh.
 

ACE OF HEARTS

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According to a formula, put out by the west , an Invading / conquering Army to Civilian ratio should be 1:40, to be effective.
So, India's 1.4 Billion population means Pakistan needs an army of 35 million, to be able to conquer India , which is Impossible.
This article makes India look weak which is wrong.
 

Knockingdoors

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We dont need to invade india, maybe just for diversion, but our main focus should be Kashmir and laddakh. Its the only area we can easily keep and defend after taking over. A massive and hard push through the working boundary through pathankot straight to chinese border, cutting off all of J&K and laddakh.

If we were being generous pushing them to 50 miles south of Hyderabad as the new line of control and creating two muslim majority states one in deccan and another one in North India where they can keep south India something similar to vijayanagar boundaries whereas that deccan state will serve as Bahmani sultante and exclusively put there for that solo reason. De-nuclearizing the Indians while equipping with nukes the deccan country and North India.. We won't be hearing from them ever again.

This was initially Muhammad bin Tughlaq's idea which some say it was stupid and I agree it came off like that in the beginning but it came into effect later and it's benefits was clear as these he moved from the north became the Bahmani sultanate and 2 century later turned into the 5 deccan sultanates who kept the vijayanagar in complete check for upto 500 years while Pakistan and North India were free of Indians as it was solely the deccans responsibility who eventually even sacked vijayanagar in their long term internal rivalries.

Winner can always dictate the outcomes hence JK and laddakh are unsatisfying nor doesn't grant us a long term dominance in the sub-C stragetically
 
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[SSG]Q266

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No.1 an advance into India is completely out of the question, but it would be technically possible.

The main way that this would be done is to annex J+K, and the best possible way to do this is to engage The Srinagar 51st IAF squadron in Mig-21 Bisons. A squadron of F16s along with a ground warfare equipped Aircraft could then proceed to take out the runways of Srinagar AFS with the escort of f16s. This will ultimately take out a main base in J+k, however the Indian Siachen base would immediately be alerted and they would attack.

However, by strategically placing SSG teams along with the regular army before the strike on Srinagar and inside the Siachen region by using the Allouette high alt helicopters, they could successfully cut off the Indian force from logistics and surround the opposing forces.

The teams of SSG would then lie in wait for the contact that the Siachen base would receive for Srinagar being taken out. The Indian Siachen unit would then call in logistical support whilst taking a team forward to engage the Pakistani siachen base. The Indians would then end up being cut off from their original base when the SSG cut off the Indian retaliating party, and take out the Indian siachen base due to having superior numbers. The remaining Indian units will be taken out, however small units will be left out to keep fighting so that the Indians keep calling in logistical support. The SSG, having cut off the siachen logistical route, will intercept logistical units and use it to keep the siachen region under Pak control.

This will ultimately lead to Indian forces using their moveable artillery to attack Lahore and Karachi regions using their navy and Tanks. A majority of our anti-tank weapons are located in Karachi along with the strategic group of Pakistan forces’s base. The anti tank NLAWS would then work effectively in stopping the ground invasion of the Indians, leading to the IAF leading ahead with bombing runs. When the bombing runs occur, squadrons of PAF fighters will scramble when then IAF are within 200km of the border, and take out the bomber aircraft on Indian soil.

The Ground attack units and helicopter units would the focus on taking out the remaining tank units as well as the infantry launched.

Paratrooper units will then be launched inside Indian territory, which would be the spear head of the Blitzkrieg movement use to cut off Indian support to J and K completely. A blitzkrieg cutting across underneath Jammu wholistic using Azad Kashmir would be the best idea, as it would implant the spearhead inside Pak pre-militarised zones, meaning that the spearhead will have well funded and a good logistical system with its troops

That’s just my two cents worth. I don’t expect people to agree , and you are entirely allowed your own opinion on The matter
 

TNT

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If we were being generous pushing them to 50 miles south of Hyderabad as the new line of control and creating two muslim majority states one in deccan and another one in North India where they can keep south India something similar to vijayanagar boundaries whereas that deccan state will serve as Bahmani sultante and exclusively put there for that solo reason. De-nuclearizing the Indians while equipping with nukes the deccan country and North India.. We won't be hearing from them ever again.

This was initially Muhammad bin Tughlaq's idea which some say it was stupid and I agree it came off like that in the beginning but it came into effect later and it's benefits was clear as these he moved from the north became the Bahmani sultanate and 2 century later turned into the 5 deccan sultanates who kept the vijayanagar in complete check for upto 500 years while Pakistan and North India were free of Indians as it was solely the deccans responsibility who eventually even sacked vijayanagar in their long term internal rivalries.

Winner can always dictate the outcomes hence JK and laddakh are unsatisfying nor doesn't grant us a long term dominance in the sub-C stragetically

That seems too far fetched, though will end hindu influence. In today's nuclear capable india and Pakistan, too drastic changes are not possible. There is always a chance of nuclear war. With J&K, there is a chance that india might not go nuclear for the Muslim majority state. Its also hard for india to defend. The biggest advantage that Pakistan gets from taking J&k is that it actually reduces the length of LOC while at same time securing our capital Islamabad.
 

Shehryar Ashraf

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a day.
but for that to happen, Pakistan must acquire hypersonic weapons and these weapons must have the range, precision and firepower to take out India's nuclear arsenal in a first strike. (easier said then done, and the Indians could achieve this as well)
the unconditional surrender would happen the next day.
 
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