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IMF projects 11.5% growth rate for India in 2021, only country with double digit growth

Salahuddin Ayyubi

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Washington: The IMF on Tuesday projected an impressive 11.5 per cent growth rate for India in 2021, making the country the only major economy of the world to register a double-digit growth this year amidst the coronavirus pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund’s growth projections for India in its latest World Economic Outlook Update released on Tuesday reflected a strong rebound in the economy, which is estimated to have contracted by eight per cent in 2020 due to the pandemic.

In its latest update, the IMF projected a 11.5 per cent growth rate for India in 2021. This makes India the only major economy of the world to register a double-digit growth in 2021, it said.

China is next with 8.1 per cent growth in 2021 followed by Spain (5.9 per cent) and France (5.5 per cent).

Revising its figures, the IMF said that in 2020, the Indian economy is estimated to have contracted by eight per cent. China is the only major country which registered a positive growth rate of 2.3 per cent in 2020.

India has faster pace recovery but still below pre-pandemic level
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath, during a virtual press conference to release the WEO update, said that India has somewhat a faster pace of recovery, but cumulatively by the end of 2022, it is nine per cent below its pre-pandemic projected level.

Cumulatively by the end of 2022, India is still nine per cent below its pre pandemic projected level, Gopinath said.


We are seeing India come back to its 2019 levels and 2021, but it’s still below. Why do we have these upgrades (in IMF’s growth projections for India)….because the activity and mobility particularly came back much faster than expected in India. We have not seen another wave, Gopinath said.


In fact, we are seeing a very strong decline in cases, which is again a bit different from other parts of the world. So, these factors, including what we’re seeing in terms of high frequency indicators, point to have somewhat faster pace of recovery. But again, there is still some distance to go, Gopinath said.


Early this month, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva had said that India actually has taken very decisive action, very decisive steps to deal with the pandemic and to deal with the economic consequences of it .

India, she said, went for a very dramatic lockdown for a country of this size of population with people clustered so closely together. And then India moved to more targeted restrictions and lockdowns.

What we see is that transition, combined with policy support, seems to have worked well. Why? Because if you look at mobility indicators, we are almost where we were before COVID in India, meaning that economic activities have been revitalized quite significantly, the IMF chief said.

Commending the steps being taken by the Indian government on the monetary policy and the fiscal policy side, she said it is actually slightly above the average for emerging markets.

Emerging markets on average have provided six per cent of GDP. In India this is slightly above that. Good for India is that there is still space to do more, she said, adding that she is impressed by the appetite for structural reforms that India is retaining.

India GDP growth 2020 (-10.29%)
India GDP growth 2021 (11.5%)

Real positive gdp by end of 2021= 11.5 -10.29

Result: actual GDP growth: 1.21%
 

GS Zhou

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Credibility check on the IMF forecast on India

India GDP growth 2020, the IMF forecast done in Apr 2020 (i.e. after the corona virus): 1.9%
India GDP growth 2020, the latest IMF estimation in Jan. 2021: -8.0%


India GDP growth 2019, the IMF forecast done in Jan 2019: 7.5%
India GDP growth 2019 actual: 4.2%

 

Cheepek

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What is the structural reform that Modi made ? That agricultural reform that is protested by small farmers ?

+ The agricultural reforms are not "protested by small farmers".
 

Indos

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lmao this truly crack me up big time. No wonder why! Lmao this is hilarious
Yup :lol:

She has been Chief Economist since 2019 and also IMF has made "optimistic" projection about India economy under pandemic which is later proves very wrong.

IMF also has pessimistic projection on Indonesia during pandemic (which will be tested soon) and also for 2021 with 4.8 percent economic growth. British think thank on the other hand has more optimistic projection with 6 percent growth. Although I admit our economy will likely grow around 5 % this year.
 

Titanium100

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Yup :lol:

She has been Chief Economist since 2019 and also IMF has made "optimistic" projection about India economy under pandemic which is later proves very wrong.

IMF also has pessimistic projection on Indonesia during pandemic (which will be tested soon) and also for 2021 with 4.8 percent economic growth. British think thank on the other hand has more optimistic projection with 6 percent growth. Although I admit our economy will likely grow around 5 % this year.
India is the biggest myth in the 21th century fuelled with disinformation labs
 

Cheehg

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Guys, it's useless to discuss on this. IMF is outdated organization now days. We will see in the end of the year. All depends how can well we control the covid situation.
 

AgNoStiC MuSliM

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The India economy has always been VASTLY overestimated by international bodies, it almost like they want to create a hype about this shithole.
They do, and the reason is simple - the West is determined to bolster India as a counterweight to China, and this is why there is a whole Army of so called 'Think tanks, analysts and experts' in the West, whoring themselves out to the highest bidders and churning out whitewashed analyses of India non-stop.
 

lightoftruth

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What is the pakistani predicted growth ?
1.5% I think, with this year's negative one,
It will still be in recession! and pakistanis here cheerleading to china over India's double digit growth estimates.
What losers !
 

Chhatrapati

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is she North or South Indian ?
South Indian.

whoring themselves out to the highest bidders and churning out whitewashed analyses of India non-stop.
IMF economists are not writing epics for their favourite country. They have data available to them and have the ability to analyse independently. These people didn't reach these positions by whoring themselves out to the highest bidder no, but through years of hard work, publishing a series of papers, thesis.
Contrary to what PDF cocoon air day in day out, there is also a real-world that does not have Pakistan at its centre and story revolving around the imaginary India-Pakistan competition.
 

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