• Tuesday, November 19, 2019

IMF predicts Turkey to become world's 15th largest economy

Discussion in 'Turkish Defence Forum' started by SBD-3, Jan 3, 2012.

  1. SBD-3

    SBD-3 ELITE MEMBER

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    11 April 2008 / TODAY'S ZAMAN WITH WIRES , İSTANBUL
    With the adoption of revised national accounts using improved methods of calculation, Turkey's gross domestic product in terms of purchasing power parity (GDP-PPP) will climb to $941.6 billion as of the end of 2008, rendering it the 15th largest economy in the world, the latest forecast in the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed.
    The IMF on Wednesday published its predictions on countries for the 2006-2013 period in its World Economic Outlook, assessing Turkey with its new figures, which the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) updated in accordance with a new basis year. Turkey had been calculating its national accounts by taking 1987 as the basis year, following UN procedures. However, it recently switched to using 1998 figures as the basis for calculations and adopted the methodologies of the EU. This change in method caused the GDP of the country to grow by one-third on paper. Turkey is currently accepted as the 19th largest economy in the world.

    This change in methodology doesn't create real growth in the economy, but it does include parts of the economy that previously existed but were not taken into consideration in GDP calculations. Calculations performed by the Anatolia news agency on the IMF predictions for world economies show that Turkey would remain in 19th place with $773.7 billion if it hadn't changed its system.

    Turkey's gross national product (GNP), on the other hand, is expected to be $748.3 billion for 2008, and this figure will keep it in 17th place among the world's largest economies in terms of GNP.

    The first five countries in terms of GDP-PPP will be the same as in 2007 -- the US, China, Japan, India and Germany. Russia will overtake Britain to become the sixth richest nation by raising its GDP-PPP to $2.28 trillion. Russia is moving up the list decisively as it had also passed France in 2006 to take seventh place. Currently 18th, Iran will also enjoy a rise in its place among the top 20 as it will move ahead of Australia to take the 17th ranking. Turkey comes in just behind South Korea.

    Although Turkey is among the leading economies in terms of the aggregate size of its economy, it is located somewhere in the middle in terms of the per capita GDP-PPP. Turkey will be 60th after Malaysia with its $13,511 per capita GDP.

    The figures obtained from the IMF report also indicate that the world's wealthiest people will be living in Qatar, where the per capita GDP-PPP will be $84,833 by the end of the year. It will be followed by Luxembourg ($83,456) and Norway ($55,452).

    The IMF predictions further note that Indonesia will pass Turkey, leaving the latter in 16th place by 2011. Indonesia has $906.7 billion in GDP-PPP but it will reach $1.16 trillion in GDP-PPP in three years, when Turkey will only have $1.15 trillion.

    Another striking prediction from the IMF is that India will pass Japan by 2013 if it can maintain its current pace of development. Brazil will become the eighth largest economy in 2013, surpassing France, and Mexico will rise to first place by overtaking Spain. South Korea will replace Canada to become the 13th largest economy. The Netherlands is expected to drop out of the top 20 league this year, but Poland, currently 21st, will enter this group for the first time.
    IMF predicts Turkey to become world's 15th largest economy
    :smitten:
     
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  2. blood

    blood BANNED

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    congrats to turkey ....

    btw why are pakistanies always happy about china , turkey or irans achievements
     
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  3. SBD-3

    SBD-3 ELITE MEMBER

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    Why should Pakistanis not be? Afterall we are not Indians :)
     
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  4. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 PROFESSIONAL

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    huh?

    do you become sad when your friend achieve somthing great?well i didnt knew that your even jealous of your friend achievement

    afridi was right indian are aint that big as pakistani peoples heart are

    turkey is more than a friend to us

    ---------- Post added at 12:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:45 PM ----------

    though the news seem very old to me.
     
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  5. blood

    blood BANNED

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    go on , no one is stopping you , keep harping upon somebody else's achievements , i hope you atleast you remember that you are a pakistani and not a turkish or a chinese
     
  6. SBD-3

    SBD-3 ELITE MEMBER

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    See thats what i was referring to......You answered you yourself.
     
  7. nomi007

    nomi007 SENIOR MEMBER

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    in 2001 turkey was under loan of 60 billion $.
    now a economical hub and role model for all
     
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  8. Martian2

    Martian2 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Turkey is on the verge of an economic collapse

    The Turkish lira "has lost a quarter of its value this year." They are on the verge of an economic collapse in the next 24 months. A country's currency depreciates dramatically when it can't pay its bills, such as the PIIIGS countries (e.g. Portugal, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain). It is time to add Turkey to the PIIIGS list.

    Don't ask me why the IMF does not dramatically reduce Turkey's nominal GDP projection for this year. The IMF estimate is clearly wrong and it should be reduced by at least 25% to reflect Turkey's currency depreciation.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/b...to-avoid-recession-reuters-breakingviews.html

    "Turkey’s Struggles to Avoid Recession
    By IAN CAMPBELL and QUENTIN WEBB
    Published: October 24, 2011

    The human cost of this week’s earthquake comes as Turkey fights to keep its once-booming economy on track. Ankara is playing a high-risk game by intervening in markets to shore up its currency and lacks the reserves to do so. Turkey will struggle to avoid adopting higher interest rates to shore up its currency, the lira, even though that may push a previously overheating economy toward recession.

    [​IMG]
    Turkey wants to shore up its lira, which has lost a quarter of its value this year. (Photo credit: Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg News)

    Until recently, Turkey sought to restrict hot money inflows by keeping interest rates down. But that allowed growth to roar and the trade deficit to soar. Now, its huge external deficit — coupled with rising inflation and a lira that has lost a quarter of its value this year — is making Turkey’s unorthodox response to hot money glut look a mistake.

    According to the central bank, short-term external debt with a maturity of less than one year amounted to $135.5 billion in August. In addition, Turkey has to finance a deficit on the current account, the broadest measure of trade, that may approach $75 billion, or about 10 percent of its gross domestic product, this year. The central bank’s foreign exchange reserves stand at $85 billion, or enough to cover about five months of imports, which is unusually low. It can ill-afford to intervene in the currency market.

    There are some signs it may adopt a more realistic stance. The central bank warned last week that inflation would rise significantly because of the “recent excessive depreciation” of the lira. Yet it only raised the overnight lending rate, to 12.5 percent from 9 percent. That makes it more expensive to speculate against the lira. The key policy interest rate was held at 5.75 percent, below inflation of 6.2 percent.

    The central bank hopes for a soft landing as a weak euro zone weighs on exports and growth. And the economy has strengths: undoubted dynamism, low public debt of 40 percent of gross domestic product and a modest fiscal deficit close to 2 percent of G.D.P. But Turkey has let money inflows knock its economy off balance. Higher interest rates seem certain to be needed to shore up the lira and control inflation. Combined with the earthquake, that means Turkey’s landing could be painfully hard."

    ----------

    India may implode

    This year, we saw Turkey's lira depreciate by 25%. Also, the Indian Rupee is "Asia’s worst performing currency this year." In the near future, India may also reach a tipping point. The Indian Rupee could depreciate by 25% in 2012 or 2013.

    Those crazy Indians keep borrowing tens of billions of dollars to buy foreign military aircraft. Their economy is dying from the additional debt and interest payments.

    By the way, I don't believe the IMF estimates for India's future GDP. The IMF seems to be oblivious to the fact that the Indian Rupee has depreciated by 10% this year [UPDATE: India's currency fell 18.5% by end of December 2011]. When the Indian currency falls by 10%, its nominal (dollar-denominated) GDP should be marked down accordingly.

    Indian Trade Deficit Widens the Most Since at Least 1994, Pressuring Rupee - Bloomberg

    "Indian Trade Deficit Widens the Most Since at Least 1994, Pressuring Rupee
    By Tushar Dhara - Nov 9, 2011 12:04 AM ET

    India’s trade deficit widened the most in October in at least 17 years, adding pressure on the rupee, Asia’s worst performing currency this year.

    [​IMG]
    The rupee, which has weakened about 10 percent against the dollar since Jan. 1, dropped 0.8 percent to 49.48 at the close of trading in Mumbai yesterday. (Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg)

    Merchandise exports rose 10.8 percent to $19.9 billion last month from a year earlier, Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar told reporters in New Delhi yesterday. Imports gained 21.7 percent to $39.5 billion, causing a trade deficit of $19.6 billion. That’s the biggest shortfall since April 1994, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    India’s trade gap increased as merchandise shipments grew at the slowest pace in two years, dragged down by waning demand for engineering and petroleum products in Europe, Khullar said. The deficit may enlarge as higher oil costs boost the value of imports, said Hemendra Bhatia, chief currency strategist at Ahmedabad, India-based Vadilal Enterprises Ltd.

    “The rupee will remain under pressure,” Bhatia said in an interview yesterday. “Exports will weaken because of the global slowdown.”

    He expects the currency to fall to as much as 51.20 per dollar by the end of December.

    The rupee dropped 0.6 percent to 49.79 against the dollar at 10:29 a.m. in Mumbai, weakening more than 10 percent since Jan. 1. The yield on the 7.80 percent government bond due April 2021 rose seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 9.10 percent. The BSE India Sensitive Index advanced 0.1 percent.

    Inflation Risks

    The Reserve Bank of India said last month that the rupee’s weakness adds to pressure on inflation, which has stayed above 9 percent since the start of December.

    Still, the central bank said on Oct. 25 that its 13 interest-rate increases since mid-March 2010 will help curb inflation and signaled it was nearing the end of monetary tightening. It predicted India’s economy will expand 7.6 percent in the year ending March 31, lower than the 8 percent it estimated earlier.

    “The impact of the rupee will show up in rising exports only later this year,” Khullar said. “We are having a very difficult autumn. Our exports are predominantly targeted toward Europe and clearly that’s where growth rate has contracted.”

    Exports of engineering goods grew 2.6 percent in October from a year earlier, while petroleum products advanced 9.4 percent in the month, Khullar said.

    Deficit Concerns

    The trade deficit for the first seven months of the year that started April 1 was $93.7 billion and “that is clearly something to be worried about, because at this rate you’re clearly going to breach the $150 billion mark for the fiscal year,” he said.

    India imports almost three-quarters of its oil requirements. Oil prices have gained 6.4 percent in New York this year.

    Meanwhile, European finance ministers pledged to roll out a bulked-up rescue fund next month, leaving Greece and Italy on the front lines until then in the fight against the debt crisis.

    As economic recoveries falter in the U.S. and Europe, India’s government plans to increase shipments to Africa and Latin America as it targets $500 billion in exports by 2014.

    Exports may also get a boost after Pakistan last week granted trade concessions to India.

    Under the so-called most-favored nation status, Pakistan will give its South Asian neighbor equal standing in international trade by removing non-tariff barriers, lowering customs duties and raising import quotas. India granted most- favored nation status to Pakistan in 1996.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Tushar Dhara in New Delhi at tdhara1@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net"
     
  9. GOD OF WAR

    GOD OF WAR FULL MEMBER

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    Hey Martian, good post, hav'nt collated your stats but by these standards, even the US is at the brink of being included in the PIIIGS list, atleast a 'piglet' list :help: for starters, even the US can't pay her bills...
     
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  10. Martian2

    Martian2 SENIOR MEMBER

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    As an American, I'm not supposed to say this. However, America's $15 trillion debt plus interest will take decades to pay off.

    Roads and bridges in the United States are already suffering deferred maintenance (e.g. potholes aren't being fixed promptly). Things are going to get ugly in this country (e.g. Occupy Wall Street protest is only the beginning). More social unrest is coming when the first fiscal cuts are implemented in January 2013 after the presidential election.

    The reason the American political system no longer functions is due to the lack of money to satisfy the constituents of both parties. Lack of money will curtail American power. China only has to sit back and watch, which it is doing.

    By analogy, the U.S. waited for the Soviet economy to implode and became the de facto superpower by default. Similarly, China has to merely wait. IF America can't fix its economy and stop the continued accumulation of debt, China will see the American empire crumble (e.g. 750 overseas military bases with no money to pay for soldiers' wages, supplies, rent, maintenance, repairs, or gas).
     
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  11. GOD OF WAR

    GOD OF WAR FULL MEMBER

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    But surely, there have got to be some sane heads that don't want the US to go down like this. The US is indeed a great nation and its sad that they're behaving in such an oblivious manner.

    Prevarications after Prevarifications.... and the people who stand up to all this mendacity are often hung by the balls. Case in point Gen Clark. my 2cents.
     
  12. patna_ke_presley

    patna_ke_presley FULL MEMBER

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    Martian you are a Chinese Guy, I tracked your posts and your profile picture from Xinhua. :lol: you mentioned everyone is facing crisis but why don't you talk about China. China export sector is facing crisis, increasing unemployment and causing unrest among people. Hang Seng is the worst performing Share market in whole of Asia. China Railways is asking for 1 Trillion Yuan Bailout.

    In toto, every country in facing crisis and it is expected it will continue in 2012 also. So, no fairy tales here, accept the reality.
     
  13. Martian2

    Martian2 SENIOR MEMBER

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    I am indeed a Taiwanese-American of Chinese ethnicity. I thought everyone knew that.

    Anyway, your points about China may be true. However, you neglected to mention something very important: China's strengths. You cannot look at a minor fault and claim China's economy is falling apart. You must look at the whole picture. After I demolish your arguments, I will itemize China's formidable strengths.

    1. I have no idea what you are talking about regarding China's export sector. China's exports are higher than ever. What's wrong with a 13.8% export growth in November (see below) when you are already the world's largest exporter?

    Since China's export base is the world's largest, 13.8% additional growth beyond that base will yield a huge absolute number. China's exports are somewhere around $1.5 trillion (see Table 4: https://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html). 13.8% of $1.5 trillion will yield an annual growth of $207 billion. Seems like a healthy economy to me.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/10/us-china-economy-trade-idUSTRE7B903Z20111210

    "China export and import growth slows, surplus narrows
    By Langi Chiang and Nick Edwards
    BEIJING | Fri Dec 9, 2011 11:10pm EST

    (Reuters) - Growth in Chinese exports and imports slowed in November, further evidence of the faltering demand abroad and at home that is pushing Beijing towards a more explicit pro-growth policy.

    Customs data on Saturday showed exports expanded 13.8 percent year on year in November, the lowest in nine months, but it was the most sluggish performance since November 2009 when the traditionally volatile month of February is stripped out.
    ...
    The surplus turned out to be $14.5 billion, narrowing from October's $17.0 billion and the same level as in September."

    2. Let's pretend that China is a company. When a company is making an average of $15 billion in profits every single month (see blue highlight above), that is a healthy company. Therefore, it is obvious that the Chinese economy is very healthy.

    3. The Hang Seng is probably performing poorly because of the economic problems in the U.S. and Europe, which affects Chinese exporters. Also, the Chinese government popped the real estate bubble early; which is good for China's economy, but not for stock market investors.

    In other words, I fail to see why you think the Hang Seng affects China's real economy of manufacturers. The stock market goes up and it comes down. Who cares? I only care about China's economic fundamentals (e.g. export growth, trade surplus, etc.).

    4. China Railways wants more money. What's the problem? You can't build railroads for free. Massive infrastructure projects (like dams, railroads, or airports) require a huge upfront cost. China Railways is asking for more money because China is building a nationwide high-speed rail network that is supposed to be completed by 2020.

    ----------

    Now, let's look at China's strengths.

    1. China has $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. In other words, China has plenty of money to pay its bills for the next few decades. The story gets even better. China has invested its $3.2 trillion and it earns interest or invested returns.

    2. China has been consistently profitable for the past decade (and longer). China earns roughly $200 billion in its annual current account balance (e.g. total trade in goods and services). In other words, $200 billion dollars in net profits is being injected into the Chinese economy every year. This is part of the reason that China's economy has boomed at 10% for thirty years.

    The trade surpluses are still happening every month. The Chinese economic party will continue unabated. It might slow a bit to 8%, but that's because China's economy is now a monster $7 trillion. It's hard to grow at 10% when your economy is that large.

    3. China's economy continues to increase in productivity. Alternatively, you can say that China's economy keeps becoming more efficient. How does China do that? Well, it's actually pretty simple. China produces and consumes hundreds of thousands of new CNC (Computer Numerically Controlled) machine tools each year. Of course Chinese factories become more productive with an annual massive influx of advanced CNC machine tools.

    4. When China builds railways, it frees up the old rail network for exclusive use to ship freight. The freight rail network no longer encounters bottlenecks and it requires a lot less fuel to ship by rail than by trucks. Once again, China's economy becomes more efficient.

    5. China has invested a lot of money into research and development. Improvement in Chinese technology has led to massive increases in production. For example, Chinese super-rice hybrid technology has led to a quadruple or quintuple increase in rice production (for the same hectare) in the last four decades. China's economy keeps booming because of technological advancement.

    I could keep going on and on about the returns on China's investment in education, trade, licensing, joint ventures, shift into production of higher-value products (e.g. ARJ-21 regional jet planes, upcoming COMAC C919 mid-size jetliners, and building satellites for foreign customers), building more-efficient coal plants with 41% efficiency and shutting down less-efficient old ones with 25% efficiency, etc.

    I've already spent 30 minutes answering his post and I would rather not spend another hour beating the issue to death. China probably has the strongest economy in the world right now. It is just silly to claim that China is facing serious economic problems.

    The Chinese currency keeps appreciating relentlessly. That should tell you China's economy is growing stronger, not weaker.

    [​IMG]
    China's Yuan has appreciated over 30% during the last six years from 8.27 yuans to 6.30 yuans per U.S. dollar (see http://www.x-rates.com/d/CNY/table.html).

    ----------

    If you want an example of a country that is in serious decline, look at this one. They can't pay their bills because they run huge annual trade deficits and their debts are beyond their ability to pay.

    Is rupee depreciation the new normal?

    "Is rupee depreciation the new normal?
    Hindu Business Line - Ritesh Jain - 1 day ago

    [​IMG]
    Unless we control inflation and reduce the supply-side constraints, the rupee is expected to depreciate further against the dollar.

    India has been relying on capital inflows to fill the current account deficit and this strategy had worked successfully in the last decade. Over the last three-four years, India has slowly and cautiously opened its doors to debt capital by raising caps on ECB/FII/FDI debt investment.

    Coupled with the increasing interest rate differentials between India and the developed world, there was a sizable increase in debt capital inflows into the country in the last couple of years. Though these inflows seem to have compensated for the almost dried up inflows towards equity this year, there could be challenges, going ahead. How? Read on.

    India's overall external debt outstanding as of June-2011 was $317 billion, an increase of 38 per cent in last two years. The short-term external debt increased at a much faster pace of 62 per cent (in absolute terms) during the same period and it now constitutes about 21.6 per cent of total external debt.

    However, a much worrying fact is that the total external debt maturing within the next one year, short-term and long-term debt (with residual maturing of less than one year), is about $137 billion, as of June 2011, constituting about 43.3 per cent of the aggregate external debt — one of the highest witnessed in last decade; and 43.5 per cent of India's total foreign currency reserve (see table).

    Additionally, a sizable portion of India's external debt is believed to be financed by European banks, which were the most active lenders to emerging Asia, much higher than the US or Japanese banks put together.

    Thus, with the ongoing re-capitalisation needs of European banks, it is likely that these banks will be less forthcoming in refinancing Indian corporate debt. What makes matters even worse is that between March 2010 and June 2011, when the short-term forex repayment obligations have more than doubled, India's foreign currency reserves have grown by just 13.14 per cent over the same time frame.
    Dollar liability

    The rupee has remained fairly stable (except during Lehmann Brothers crisis) and confined to the 44-48 range against the dollar. This was supposed to be a new normal and with India's GDP growth recovering to 9 per cent in a short span after the crisis, the rupee was expected to appreciate vis-a-vis the dollar by market participants and economists alike. Though inflows and outflows on the currency front were more or less matched during this period, what changed was that short-term credit funding by Indian corporates was taken in dollars instead of rupees.

    Further, some corporates converted their rupee liability to dollar liability. With interest rate differential between the RBI repo rate and Fed rate reaching the highest level in recent history, corporates were led to believe that either the rupee would appreciate or the interest differential on their liabilities conversion would more than offset rupee depreciation, if any.

    However, contrary to general belief, the rupee depreciated 10-12 per cent against the dollar. In fact, the rupee was so weak that it depreciated 8-10 per cent against currencies such as the euro and the yen.
    Import issues

    India remains a net importer of goods in foreign trade, with about a third comprising inelastic oil imports. A sharp depreciation in the rupee in recent times would pose a challenge for the import Bill. With a foreign currency reserve of $311 billion, as of September 2011, and import value of about $35 billion for the month, India now has the lowest import cover of 8-9 months; this is the lowest in the last decade.

    The elevated inflation, rising wages and increased capital costs during the last three years has diminished India's competitiveness. Further, with slowdown in the global economy, a slowdown in exports growth is inevitable.

    The currency depreciation will put pressure on inflation. Sticky inflation and lack of infrastructure will slow down the productivity gains. An interesting point to ponder at this juncture would be — having attracted reasonable amount of foreign money with 8-9 per cent GDP growth, now, if the new normal GDP growth gets closer to 6-7 per cent, will that impact funds flow into the country?
    Strained liquidity

    The central banker's ability to intervene in the currency market remains strictly limited as we are running close to the lowest foreign currency reserves in terms of import cover in the last decade.

    We believe that a sizable portion of external debt maturing in the next one year would require to be rolled over domestically, as global risk aversion would make the dollar availability limited and will, in turn, put pressure on the rupee liquidity. Any move by the RBI to support the rupee would put further pressure on the already strained liquidity. Along with all these factors mentioned above, a heightening risk on the current account deficit front, the best for the rupee seems to be over and we are in a new normal where unless we bring inflation under control and reduce the supply-side constraint, the rupee is expected to depreciate further against the dollar."

    ----------

    Off-topic:

    To clarify, my avatar (to the left) of the Three Gorges Dam was chosen because of the three cool pools of whitewater against a green backdrop. I couldn't find an identical picture without the Xinhua logo, so I had to settle for the picture with Xinhua on it. I've never given it a second thought until today. I want to state that I have nothing to do with Xinhua.

    My first choice was China's first thermonuclear explosion, but I thought Indians might get upset. I picked a less controversial logo.
     
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  14. Saithan

    Saithan SENIOR MEMBER

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    Well, I agree with some of what you said. The Turks should be more critical when buying consumer goods. It's undeniable that some products coming from outside Turkey are better quality, So I wish like many other that the population would favor national products more.

    E.g. people should be better at pointing out to each other that the product they are buying "prada, Chanel etc." are french products and remind them of what's going on. Small reminders like that can be enough to leave a bad taste in peoples mouths. And be some kind of a deterrent.

    EDIT: I like your post Martian and God of War has some good points too.

    I am thinking that perhaps the US could save some money by reducing some of it's military expendings. imploding isn't an option, because of the mentioned problem. But perhaps the US should reconsider some of its strategies. I think perhaps leaving the ME to itself (including israel) and focusing on some of the former sovjet countries would be beneficial, especially if the US and Turkey cooperate in this field. Russia is trying (and succeeding) strengten its ties with those countries, and Turkey has one thing to offer that Russia doesn't and that's the fact that we're Turks, openness and willing to invest as well.
     
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  15. patna_ke_presley

    patna_ke_presley FULL MEMBER

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    Yes, it is true China won't fall apart but there is crisis brewing everywhere in the world. China's most export goes to EU and US market and since China still have large share of export oriented economy, there is a crisis because of that. Even with the $3.2 Trillion reserve China can check its crisis but but it is useless for checking unemployment because it is dependent on demand of goods. It is being expected that China's growth rate will further down to 7.6 percent in 2012 (7.6% is still good).

    But government always set aside budget for Infrastructure projects and asking for a huge bailout of 1 Trillion Yuan or $150 Billion dollar is still a huge amount insisting that company is incurring huge losses and cost-overrun. But it is obvious that it will be bailed out because China has huge exchange reserve.