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How Will The U.S Withdrawal Effect Afghanistan

JamD

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I agree most of the points of your post other than this one .... but as this theard is not related to this topic therefore we may argue on this topic in some other thread in some other day

But briefly for this point my argument is simple why burden ourselves unnecessarily .... ?? all we need from Afghanistan is land access to Central Asia and some raw material that's it nothing more .... lets the native decide what they want even if they want division of Afghanistan let them do it ....
Wasn't sure which thread to use so using this one. What you say is correct that all we need is land access. However, the question is how do you get it? Here's a few likely scenarios that I see playing out that will prevent our goal for access:
1. An India leaning government stays in power for at least several years due to financial support from US and India (just like how a communist government survived post USSR pullout). This is status quo and expect no trade access and increased support for BLA and TTP.
2. Total civil war (just like before). Well now let's say you secure transit rights through party A. Party B is in power next week. Party C controls part of the route. You don't have a route.

So I agree that Pakistan wants nothing more than to be able to ignore Afghanistan and focus on other things but it is the nature of Afghanistan that forces us to play a role and do more than just watch. We really are trying to get stability there. Eventually we will have to pick a favourite faction and back it. When that is, is for smart planners to decide.
 

HRK

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Wasn't sure which thread to use so using this one. What you say is correct that all we need is land access. However, the question is how do you get it? Here's a few likely scenarios that I see playing out that will prevent our goal for access:
1. An India leaning government stays in power for at least several years due to financial support from US and India (just like how a communist government survived post USSR pullout). This is status quo and expect no trade access and increased support for BLA and TTP.
2. Total civil war (just like before). Well now let's say you secure transit rights through party A. Party B is in power next week. Party C controls part of the route. You don't have a route.

So I agree that Pakistan wants nothing more than to be able to ignore Afghanistan and focus on other things but it is the nature of Afghanistan that forces us to play a role and do more than just watch. We really are trying to get stability there. Eventually we will have to pick a favourite faction and back it. When that is, is for smart planners to decide.
some of my post from the past on this topic .... keep in mind these posts were mostly made during conversation with other members in reply of their queries .... so might have to visit threads to understand the background and to know the queries of the members.

I might be wrong but any descendant of Zahir Shah or any other capable person from the former Royal family of Afghanistan might save Afghanistan to go for another civil war if appointed as Constitutional Monarch during the transitional period, provided the transitional setup agreed to the following conditions of different Afghan groups and foreign players

- keep public and political outlook of Afghanistan Islamic; basically this is a condition of Afghan Taliban and agreed by US in Peace deal but all other Afghan groups would also agree with it

- this will deny any particular ethnic armed group including Afghan Taliban as ruler, so basically it will be a sort of assurance that everyone would have some share in power

- Constitutional Monarchy will ensure delicate balance as second tier of governance the "Governing Council" could accommodate leaders nominated by their respective groups

- After internal balancing this setup would be required to accommodate "Political, Cultural and Territorial" sensitivities of immediate neighbours of Afghanistan
First of all this Russian exercise is not the hint of any incursion in Afghanistan what I am debating is a future scenario where the situation could go worst and require a direct intervention by regional countries to safeguard their legitimate interests with coordinated "regional" approach. In Afghanistan America is an extra regional power

exactly because of this reason its more dangerous, so as we have witness in Syria America and Russia sometime exchange information for their operations in areas near to each other control/influence, so the point is they are avoiding the direct confrontation with each other the same model of communicative can be used to avoid the direct confrontation with US forces which are already in limited numbers.

exactly Syria had a working central government and somewhat functional defence forces which Afghanistan lack so in a scenario of non-existent government rather to let Afghanistan go in the hands of war and drug lords same as decade of 90s where we witness an incident hijacking of school bus with number of school going children by Afghan terrorist backed by one of the faction of Northern Alliance (I think by Abdul Rasheed Dostum group, if my memory serve me right) and in recent past we have witness APS incident so to avoid any such incident by any group either TTP or ISIS or by any other terrorist group decisive action by regional block will be requried.

not just by Pakistan or China but a Collation of all the countries Sharing Border with Afghanistan Russia and China can provide diplomatic and material support.
1- In past Soviet Union came to Afghanistan on the request of Afghan Government of that time, Pakistan and USA and other allied forces who intervened uninvited during that time
2- Russia tookeover Crimea after the fall of pro Russian Government of Ukraine
3- Iran intervene in Iraq and Syria at the request of these two governments
4- Turkey started its operation in Syria without any request by Syrian government to safeguard their territorial integrity and national interest
5- USA, Germany, UK all are in Syria uninvited

So the point is in current time request or no request countries are taking decisions to safeguard their Sovereignty and Interest

So the question of more importance should be: Is it in our interest to extend our Anti-terror operations in regions controlled by ISIS near to our boarder for limited time period ....??


Before any active military role we would be required to create a certain POLITICAL environment inside Afghanistan and in the region, as far as demands by Russia or by regional country is concerns we would not in position to fulfil any demand beyond the scope of regional cooperation.

Our sole purpose should be to dislodge the ISIS and its associated groups from regions of Pak-Afghanistan boarder and beyond therefore cooperation from countries who are sharing boarder with Afghanistan would be required.


Russia and Iran has already fought against ISIS in Syria and danger of spill over of ISIS to Central Asian region should be compelling enough for Russia to act rather wait for the request by some other country ISIS should be the common enemy to all of the countries

So rather a request by any particular country it SHOULD BE A COMMON OBJECTIVE for all countries sharing boarder with Afghanistan


1- I have already commented about point one
2- Should continue as long as possible for us to sustain as per the requirements of regional environment, the idea is to raise the importance of regional cooperation and stability than mutual understanding in isolation of the region
3- As long as it serve the economic interest of China, Chinese support will be there
4- For us its a problem which need to be worked and resolved, but our action of regional cooperation could put Indian in a situation where it will have to take clear position

Every asset have its useful life, now Taliban are gaining areas in Northern Afghanistan as well which I find difficult to understand how is possible without and support infrastructure.

one more thing most of NA is the beneficiary of current political setup of Afghanistan which is heavily supported by USA so its difficult to think that Russian during this long period of 18 years has not hedged the risk

1- Iran has establish links with Taliban, Mullah Mansoor family is still in Iran.
2- Secondly 18 consecutive years in government must have diminsh the skill of fighting of Northern alliance otherwise they could have eliminated Taliban with the help of USA from Afghanistan
3- In any such situation Indian would be required to chose the side and I am sure India will chose USA

agreed therefore engaging Russia is necessary


it not about the ability of Pakistan to defend the CPEC, its about the elimination of the perpetual risk continuously dangering business and social environment in Pakistan, without eliminating the risk from the region Pakistan would not gain any economical benefit from CPEC Chinese convey can come and go we could provide security to them but what about the economic activities in the form of investment from Chinese business community which is suppose to follow after the completion of current projects ....??

We can not bear full fruits of CPEC by just acting as SECURITY GUARD. We are required to create secure economic environment in Pakistan and in the region.

therefore at first we (like Iran, Russia) are required to create political class willing to work with regional block independent from militancy of Afghanistan, like Hekmatyar who lived in Iran during exile we also have relations with him and his group has laid down arms a per agreement with Afghan government

Both Russia and China are already in Afghanistan with there define policies which are different from the past no one is confronting USA but keeping the situation in check

ISAF mission in Afghanistan has ended now its USA forces and some other countries under resolute support mission but the forces under this structure is not enough to resolve the current and potential danger in Afghanistan in the form of ISIS

it is already in the hands of warlords just read what Abdul Rasheed Dosttam has done with one of the governor of a province of Afghanistan

I think next year Presidential election of Afghanistan will be held and as per the current situation of Afghanistan it is difficult to assume that election wold play any constructive role
in the future of Afghanistan.


because of low number of US forces and frail status of Afghan forces a vacuum in Afghanistan exist which ISIS and other elements are filling and mounting danger to regional countries security situation.

In a most simplest way and to summarise the post think it in this way
Afghanistan itself is a problem which required to be fixed rather than fixing issues of Afghanistan

not just Pakistani troops but regional element of all the countries sharing boarder with Afghanistan supported by Russia and China
if the above scenario fail then apply this strategy
The only solution of Afghanistan problem from Pakistan's perspective is the implementation of "Crimea Strategy" ....
no not in case of Afghanistan we just have to play our cards right ..... Why
- The history of Afghanistan teach us that the AFGHANS could never become a NATION.
- All the experiments of making Afghanistan a FUNCTIONAL STATE by all the powers involved in Afghanistan has failed.
- A region having an area of +650 km2 with very difficult geophysical conditions will always remain a headache for its neighbors if left lawless & ungoverned
- There is NO FUNCTIONAL GOVERNMENT & There WOULD NEVER BE.
- Afghanistan was a buffer state b/w three SUPER & REGIONAL powers of that time (mainly b/w UK occupied India & Russia)
- Now there is no need for such ARRANGEMENTS
- There is already vast area of central Asia exist b/w Russia & plains of South Asia
- 'We' (Pakistan+Central Asian Countries[& to an extent Russia]) need land based Rail & Road connectivity

ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
USA not agree to such arrangements (might be Europe as well, but they would be more manageable then USA) but
- Intervention of US & Europe has already effectively divided Iraq, Syria, Libya, Sudan, to an extent Lebanon as well
- Situation in these countries are treating the Territorial integrity of Turkey, Iran, Jordan & Lebanon
- Non Intervention in Yemen & Somalia has also resulted in the division of these countries.

Plz keep in mind
- Afghanistan is bordering with two nuclear powers China & Pakistan
- Neighbor of an active Regional player Iran (Shia factor)
- & with Central Asia (Backyard of Russia)

Common Threats to Neighbors & Russia
- Da'esh (non of the neighbor of Afghanistan can afford the rise of ISIS in Afghanistan)
- Taliban
- Current pro-west political class
- Non-functional Government
- Lawlessness & Terrorism

Solution
- Make Kabul irrelevant for any future settlement of Afghanistan (to an extent they are, but enforce this image within regional community & within Afghanistan)
- Somehow deny next elections which will enforce the image of frailer political setup of Afghanistan & this will also enforce FAILURE of USA in Afghanistan after so many years
- If there will be no election there will be no Government in KABUL, Afghans will do the rest of job themselves
- Seek support of second & third tier of political leadership (no ARMED MOVEMENT THIS THIS TIME)
- Try to enforce the REGIONAL SOLUTION (Regional Solution= Multiple Crimea like situation at most if not at all borders of Afghanistan)

I know this look weird but the reasons to purpose this are
- We can not afford to face both ISIS & INDIA at same time
- We can not afford to have foreign sponsored internal turmoil
- One of the principle objective of USA in Afghanistan was to dislodge the influence of Pakistan from Afghanistan for this they facilitated India unnecessarily
- We know who is behind TTP & now ISIS, but we can't respond in the same coin as it will not be our INTEREST
- We should admit that we have lost most of our influence in Afghanistan & we could not continue like this forever
- We are aware of the results of old strategy, therefore some new strategy is required & for this we must understand that
- THERE IS NOTHING LIKE ISSUES IN AFGHANISTAN FOR US AFGHANISTAN ITSELF IS A PROBLEM & WE HAVE TO RESOLVE IT
 
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