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How much more will PKR appreciate?

Alpha_PK

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Jun 25, 2020
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PKR has appreciated from 168 to 160.5 to the dollar in about a month and a half.

It has also considerably strengthened against the INR and the BDT, suggesting that the appreciation is not only due to the dollar weakening.

Considering the appreciation has happened over the course of a month, rather than a sudden appreciation, it looks like the rupee will stablise at around 160.

But will this be sustained or will the rupee devalue due to the government repaying the loans early next year??
 

VCheng

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Sep 29, 2010
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PKR has appreciated from 168 to 160.5 to the dollar in about a month and a half.

It has also considerably strengthened against the INR and the BDT, suggesting that the appreciation is not only due to the dollar weakening.

Considering the appreciation has happened over the course of a month, rather than a sudden appreciation, it looks like the rupee will stablise at around 160.

But will this be sustained or will the rupee devalue due to the government repaying the loans early next year??
As long as Pakistan consumes more than it produces, its currency will remain on a steady downward trends over the long term, short term changes like this notwithstanding. About 10% devaluation per year is a reasonable estimate.
 

Syed1.

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Dec 7, 2016
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It will hit 130 PKR to 1 USD
Without substantial increase in exports that seems like a distant dream.


Also it is a chicken and egg situation in the sense more exports will result in more foreign exchange hence a stronger ruppee, but a stronger ruppee makes exports expensive and thereby could make them uncompetitive.

I think in the short term we should aim to keep ruppee at 150 even if it is tending to appreciate. (Obviously hoping it gets to 150 first)
 

TheSnakeEatingMarkhur

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Dec 26, 2018
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Without substantial increase in exports that seems like a distant dream.


Also it is a chicken and egg situation in the sense more exports will result in more foreign exchange hence a stronger ruppee, but a stronger ruppee makes exports expensive and thereby could make them uncompetitive.

I think in the short term we should aim to keep ruppee at 150 even if it is tending to appreciate. (Obviously hoping it gets to 150 first)
Our exports are growing in many modern sectors...
 

Mujahid Memon

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Apr 24, 2012
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Without substantial increase in exports that seems like a distant dream.


Also it is a chicken and egg situation in the sense more exports will result in more foreign exchange hence a stronger ruppee, but a stronger ruppee makes exports expensive and thereby could make them uncompetitive.

I think in the short term we should aim to keep ruppee at 150 even if it is tending to appreciate. (Obviously hoping it gets to 150 first)
Such situation happens when the exports are low value added. In the case of high value added products such as high tech products and products involving intellectual property this trend doesn't happen.
 

Aawish

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Jan 19, 2017
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I earned $25 bucks via freelancing last week. I was expecting the rates to be around Rs.165 lakin tb say rates girtay hi chalay ja rahay hain. 😁
 

BATMAN

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Mar 31, 2007
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PKR has appreciated from 168 to 160.5 to the dollar in about a month and a half.

It has also considerably strengthened against the INR and the BDT, suggesting that the appreciation is not only due to the dollar weakening.

Considering the appreciation has happened over the course of a month, rather than a sudden appreciation, it looks like the rupee will stablise at around 160.

But will this be sustained or will the rupee devalue due to the government repaying the loans early next year??
Only Zulfi Bukhari and Sheriyar Afridi types can tell... basically it all depends on how long Taftan border has limited traffic of $ peddlers.
 

volatile

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Mar 11, 2011
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Rupee was devalued way above the estimates or required .Now currently market is sentiment driven which is bullish for Rupee .Like many signs but few milestones will deter the rupee value in coming weeks .

US elections and Dollar appreciation
SBP double figures on commercial banks dollars
Current Account deficit
Remittances
 

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