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How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan?

FuturePAF

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Because China is the only country with a complete industrial system.

Thanks you for rebutting my argument so throughly. I’m starting to understand your point. The complete supply chain within one city is there at the most efficient price and in considerable volume.

But even if the US factories are not the cheapest initially, don’t you think they could possibly catch up with more advanced technologies in the processing and manufacturing of key technologies like lithium ion batteries or chips? Sure China is the advancing to stay ahead of any competition, but innovation in the US is very advanced and a lot more is starting to be poured into R&D. It may not be all be in one city, but with its possible the US could work with other Asian countries to supply work components and make the rest in-house to overcome the dependence on China. Perhaps similar to the German Mittlestand
 

MH.Yang

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Thanks you for rebutting my argument so throughly. I’m starting to understand your point. The complete supply chain within one city is there at the most efficient price and in considerable volume.

But even if the US factories are not the cheapest initially, don’t you think they could possibly catch up with more advanced technologies in the processing and manufacturing of key technologies like lithium ion batteries or chips? Sure China is the advancing to stay ahead of any competition, but innovation in the US is very advanced and a lot more is starting to be poured into R&D. It may not be all be in one city, but with its possible the US could work with other Asian countries to supply work components and make the rest in-house to overcome the dependence on China. Perhaps similar to the German Mittlestand
If the dollar can't buy any industrial goods in nearly a century, who will accept the dollar? Who would be willing to cooperate with USA?
To be honest, I'm afraid it will take more than 10 years for USA to quell domestic chaos.
Moreover, the only factories in western countries will soon be shut down and abandoned within a year of the beginning of sanctions. They can't help USA. They will rush to betray USA. The Chinese govt will certainly not include all western countries on the attack list. We will blame all the problems on the Anglo Saxon countries, and then sanction these Anglo Saxon countries on the grounds of racism and war criminals, leaving other western countries with channels and reasons to change their camps.
 
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FuturePAF

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If the dollar can't buy any industrial goods in nearly a century, who will accept the dollar? Who would be willing to cooperate with USA?
To be honest, I'm afraid it will take more than 10 years for USA to quell domestic chaos.
Moreover, the only factories in western countries will soon be shut down and abandoned within a year of the beginning of sanctions. They can't help USA. They will rush to betray USA.
i think you think the domestic chaos is greater then it actually is. The system is very receptive to address the chaos to some degree and placate the masses in a manner that does not disrupt economic stability. The US (and Europe , Japan, and other allied nations) make up the bulk of the global economy. No one can currently afford to ignore export to them unless it is cutoff.

My original point is, if BRI is sped up, perhaps these nations would have an alternative choice, but until then they will have to focus on exports to the western alliance, just like China.
 

MH.Yang

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Thanks you for rebutting my argument so throughly. I’m starting to understand your point. The complete supply chain within one city is there at the most efficient price and in considerable volume.

But even if the US factories are not the cheapest initially, don’t you think they could possibly catch up with more advanced technologies in the processing and manufacturing of key technologies like lithium ion batteries or chips? Sure China is the advancing to stay ahead of any competition, but innovation in the US is very advanced and a lot more is starting to be poured into R&D. It may not be all be in one city, but with its possible the US could work with other Asian countries to supply work components and make the rest in-house to overcome the dependence on China. Perhaps similar to the German Mittlestand
Thanks you for rebutting my argument so throughly. I’m starting to understand your point. The complete supply chain within one city is there at the most efficient price and in considerable volume.

But even if the US factories are not the cheapest initially, don’t you think they could possibly catch up with more advanced technologies in the processing and manufacturing of key technologies like lithium ion batteries or chips? Sure China is the advancing to stay ahead of any competition, but innovation in the US is very advanced and a lot more is starting to be poured into R&D. It may not be all be in one city, but with its possible the US could work with other Asian countries to supply work components and make the rest in-house to overcome the dependence on China. Perhaps similar to the German Mittlestand
Yes, Germany has some factories. For example, I am familiar with cemented carbide enterprises Kenner and Sandvik. There are pharmaceutical factories in India and Tesla in the United States. However, these companies all rely heavily on China's industrial chain. Germany needs ZCC CT supplies tungsten rods and other raw materials (zcc.ct has the ability to completely paralyze the Russian oil industry, but have you ever thought about why Western governments dare not put pressure and sanctions on this enterprise? Western media dare not tell you that zcc.ct supplies almost all alloy consumables in Russia's coal mining and oil production industries), Tesla needs Chinese lithium batteries and other raw materials, and almost all raw materials of Indian Pharmaceutical come from China. If these enterprises cut off the supply of raw materials, how long do you think these factories can last? Do you know how much resources and time it takes to restart the abandoned production line? I suggest you refer to F22 production line in USA.

Finally, don't think that China is afraid to nationalize all foreign-funded enterprises and patents. China did this once in 1949. Of course, China can do it again. The reason why China announced the anti sanctions law in 2020 is because Trump's election was in a desperate situation. China used this law to remind trump not to gamble with China's problems. Otherwise, the chaebols on Wall Street would pick a psychotic killer for trump, just as they did for Kennedy.
 
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DF41

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It will take the west 2-3 years to rebuild all the lost factories in China?

No, it will take at least 100 years to rebuild the modern industrial system from scratch.
Have you eve
r wondered why the West has been unable to transfer manufacturing from China? Why do Chinese people earn six times as much as Indians, but goods made in India are much more expensive than those made in China? Because China is the only country with a complete industrial system.

Even in the last century, China has never been the country with the lowest labor cost. In fact, in addition to low-end labor-intensive industries, labor cost is not the largest commodity cost, and industrial chain and logistics are the biggest commodity costs, that is also the reason why the cost of goods in countries such as India is much higher than that in China. I am engaged in cemented carbide industry, if I want to sell a batch of drill bits, first I need to buy tungsten powder and cobalt powder from other enterprises, then I need other enterprises to help me press it into alloy rods, I also need enterprises to help me do wire cutting, and I also need enterprises to help me weld the alloy head to the steel bar. A total of more than 10 enterprises are required to cooperate together. If I am an Indian, I need to mail products more than ten times around the world and bear the logistics cost and time back and forth, the logistics cost will exceed the cost of the product itself by several times. In China, I can carry out all production links in one city.

China has the largest, most perfect and most reasonably designed industrial chain in the world, and the most advanced and efficient logistics system, that is the most important reason why capital cannot leave China. Sorry, I forgot that there is also the largest market in the world. Any enterprise leaving China will face fierce competition from China, and it will be difficult for such enterprises to survive.

The modern industrial system is huge and complex, far beyond your imagination.

You come from the West and are not as familiar with industrial knowledge as the Chinese, so you really underestimate the difficulty and time of rebuilding the modern industrial system from scratch.



These are consumables for coal and oil mines. If the supply of consumables is stopped, these mines will be shut down within three days. If the work is stopped for more than three months, these machines need to be overhauled and then scrapped<So if China ZCC.CT group (factory 601, which produces 15% of the world's cemented carbide products) imposes sanctions on Russia, Russia will not be able to produce any resources.>.

View attachment 832134

View attachment 832135

The modern industrial system is a result of the gradual upgrading and accumulation of human beings over a thousand years. If the industrial chain breaks, it will be scrapped quickly, but the reconstruction time will take generations.

For example, if you want to make penicillin, a necessity of modern mankind, you first need to be able to make freeze-dried powder. If you want to make lyophilized powder, you first need high voltage current. If you want high voltage current, you first need stainless steel, special steel, rubber and electric welding. Synthetic rubber needs organic chemical industry, which needs ethylene manufacturing and aromatics manufacturing. Welding requires electrical systems, which require capacitor manufacturing and mercury arc rectifiers, which require chlorine manufacturing and aluminum industry. Just one penicillin, you need to develop hundreds of industrial links. It takes only a week for China to get resource countries to abandon the dollar, because Chinese have mastered the necessities of life and production consumables they need. The west can't even make light bulbs in a week, because it needs vacuum pumps, and then vacuum pumps need hundreds of advanced technologies.

Even if Western countries are given a hundred years, they will not be able to rebuild the whole industrial chain from scratch. China is the only country on the blue planet with a complete manufacturing industry.



USA does not control more than 70% of the world's military and financial power, but China controls more than 70% of the world's factories. Once China launches sanctions against the west, confiscate all western factories & Investment & Patents in China. Some of the only factories in the West will also be shut down and abandoned quickly due to the broken supply chain. For example, Kenner and Sandvik of Germany, which need Chinese raw materials in the cemented carbide industry, and Indian and American pharmaceutical companies in the pharmaceutical industry.
Without material and commodity supplies, USA cannot even wage war against a small country like Haiti. Of course, the US military should be busy dealing with domestic riots at that time. Once the supply of goods is cut off, whether rich or poor, Americans will rob supermarkets with guns.


BTW: You should check China's grain output, which is twice that of India. China's grain output ranks first in the world, and its grain reserves account for 70% of the global reserves. China can be self-sufficient in grain and is not afraid of blockade at all. Moreover, USA may not be able to blockade China. If China continues to expand its navy for 20 years, we will have enough navy to blockade USA.

In addition, we welcome the Republican Party to continue to increase military spending. US military expenditure accounts for 3.5% of GDP, while China's military expenditure accounts for 1% of GDP. If USA military spending triples to 10%, congratulations to USA, you have reached the level of military spending of the Soviet Union.
At that time, USA may need a Stalin and Kim Jong Un to keep the country stable under such high military spending. Oh, you can make trump the emperor of the Empire.

FAz3.gif



USA already spiralling into total bankruptcy with riots in cities of USA and robbing of shops at gun point or even not at gunpoint.

Total meltdown of USA and I pray the poison of USA be consumed within USA and not infect the rest of the world under the hypocritical RULE BASED FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND REGARDS FOR HUMAN RIGHTS BULL 💩

If the world lucky, that might be within a few weeks , or latest in a few months.

To maintain peace, China might have to do FONOPs in Frisco Bay and Hudson Bay
 

leviathan

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It’s not about swift, it’s about the west and Japan subsidizing companies to move their factories out of China and into other countries as well as back into the states, over the next 5-10 years.

China will be cutoff from new technology and will have to develop everything itself in parallel to try to keep up.

This is why, IMHO, it’s in China’s interest to get BRI done ASAP or it will lose whatever leverage it has gained technological over the past 4 decades to new western ventures.

First of all, it's not Japan move their factories out of China.... It's more like their factories lost businesses due to their quality/price and bankrupt!! 20 years ago. Sonny, Panasonic, sharp... dominating every market. Today, I can't find them anywhere in the shops.
When you go from 150 to 50. You bet a ton of factory will close...
1n6f83oqh6h51.png



For R&D, Japan lay flat for a long time already! 5 years ago, Japan already only 35% of China'a research power. This year, probably only 20%.
960x0.jpg
 
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leviathan

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The west buys Chinese products because at the moment they have no alternative. The infrastructure and efficiency in China keeps costs down. But that won’t be the case forever. In the west the process will be automated as much as possible, while investments are being made to make the infrastructure competitive with China. Look at the Tesla gigafactories. Sure workers in Fremont California were demand more, but that’s why the company moved to Texas. So I will give it to you that the behavior of labor is one of China’s strengths, but I would like you to admit there has been a shift in the west and the trends in manufacturing aren’t all rosy for China.


Here are China's ture manufacturing strengths!
1. First! and the most impotant strengths! Power! Power! Power!
For example, some delusion viet believe that they can replace China to be the factory of the world. The fact is that Vietnam either need to enslave 10 billion Vietnamese to do hand craftsmen or need at least build 500+ nuclear/coal power plant.
CountryElectricity production
(GWh)
Year
World26,823,200[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China.svg.png
China
7,779,100[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png
United States
4,286,600[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_India.svg.png
India
1,560,900[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Russia.svg.png
Russia
1,085,400[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Japan.svg.png
Japan
1,004,800[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Canada_%28Pantone%29.svg.png
Canada
643,900[1]2020
22px-Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png
Brazil
620,100[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_South_Korea.svg.png
South Korea
574,000[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Germany.svg.png
Germany
571,900[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_France.svg.png
France
524,900[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Saudi_Arabia.svg.png
Saudi Arabia
340,900[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Iran.svg.png
Iran
331,600[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Mexico.svg.png
Mexico
313,200[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png
UK
312,800[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Turkey.svg.png
Turkey
305,400[1]2020
23px-Flag_of_Vietnam.svg.png
Vietnam
243,500[1]2020

2. Efficiency! Including administration, logistics, management and planning.

The Tesla Giagafactory example will be the best. Same company building same factory in different countries.
Here is the pure constriction time. Not including approval delay.

2019: Giga Shanghai construction to production in record time - 168 working days​

In 2019, Tesla selected Shanghai as its third Gigafactory location. The company constructed the factory in record time, taking just 168 working days from gaining permits to finishing the plant's construction.

2019: Giga Berlin begins construction - 2 years +​

Announced in November 2019, Tesla began the construction of its first European Gigafactory in Berlin. The Gigafactory is still under construction.

2020: Giga Texas begins construction - 1.5 years +​

The following year in August 2020, Tesla began the construction of its Giga Texas factory. The company’s third Gigafactory in the US is still under construction.
 

leviathan

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Thanks you for rebutting my argument so throughly. I’m starting to understand your point. The complete supply chain within one city is there at the most efficient price and in considerable volume.

But even if the US factories are not the cheapest initially, don’t you think they could possibly catch up with more advanced technologies in the processing and manufacturing of key technologies like lithium ion batteries or chips? Sure China is the advancing to stay ahead of any competition, but innovation in the US is very advanced and a lot more is starting to be poured into R&D. It may not be all be in one city, but with its possible the US could work with other Asian countries to supply work components and make the rest in-house to overcome the dependence on China. Perhaps similar to the German Mittlestand
None can deny that US's advance R&D capability and current technological lead. But let me expose a little secret of US R&D that might help you solve some mystery.

First of all, you need to understand that China's R&D is close to US's R&D today. Of course, China still does a lot of catch up work while US doing leading research. One might wonder with combine power of US/UK and EU, China should still behind WEST a lot....

CountrydocumentsCitable documentsCitationsSelf-CitationsCitations per DocumentH index
1
CN
China7882877440429715025125401.231010
2
US
United States7667896245549339444125671.222577
3
GB
United Kingdom249408198500366513982311.471618
4
IN
India217771191590165237699670.76691
5
DE
Germany216474174524266602777811.231429
6
IT
Italy155135127502239812788101.551135
7
JP
Japan147341127408132663365910.901118

And here is the dirty secret... China conducts extensive (or dominates) research in the fields of chemistry, materials, engineering and computing. The U.S/UK is leading a light year in practice medicine and life science... The reason is simple, when you spent 2 trillion dollars on health care per year, your brightest will go for the pie... But most of those researches power coverted to drug company milking money out of US healthcare system. Of course, It also allows obesity aremircan to have the same life expectancy as China (77 vs. 77).


I can't find the English version. Dark blue is US. Light green is China. Start from left clockwise, practice medicine, life science, chemistry, materials, physics, match/computing, engineering, earth science.

4b7a-507a4093afe050b18f227bd3ec46a500.png

 

FairAndUnbiased

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Thanks you for rebutting my argument so throughly. I’m starting to understand your point. The complete supply chain within one city is there at the most efficient price and in considerable volume.

But even if the US factories are not the cheapest initially, don’t you think they could possibly catch up with more advanced technologies in the processing and manufacturing of key technologies like lithium ion batteries or chips? Sure China is the advancing to stay ahead of any competition, but innovation in the US is very advanced and a lot more is starting to be poured into R&D. It may not be all be in one city, but with its possible the US could work with other Asian countries to supply work components and make the rest in-house to overcome the dependence on China. Perhaps similar to the German Mittlestand
other people already mentioned industrial supply chain and R&D distribution, but there's something even more basic: industry requires power.

to manufacture something requires electricity. Entire G7 produces less electricity than China. Almost all Chinese electrical production is domestic coal+hydro+renewables, the rest (a tiny fraction!) is direct electricity imported from Russia or Laos. Note that Australian coal is not used for fuel, it is used for coking.

In contrast, South Korea, TW, Japan and all of ASEAN except Indonesia and Malaysia have to import fuel for electricity. Without imports, for instance, Taiwan has about 3 days of fuel in reserve.

Basically, China has built a industrial infrastructure with strong foundations in the basics - providing power, building infrastructure, and turning rocks into products.

The only way to even think about replacing China, is to first build up power generation capability equal to China's elsewhere and supply it with a secure fuel source. Otherwise you cannot replicate the same industry because there outright won't be enough power for it.
 

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