• Tuesday, May 21, 2019

How China Began World War III in the South China Sea

Discussion in 'China & Far East' started by Feng Leng, Mar 17, 2019.

  1. Feng Leng

    Feng Leng SENIOR MEMBER

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    How China Began World War III in the South China Sea

    India, increasingly concerned about China’s expansion into the Indian Ocean, belatedly enhanced maritime cooperation with the other members of the “Quad”: Australia, Japan, and America. The four countries began planning for combined SCS “dissuasion” operations.

    2020: Indications, Warnings, and War

    China often leaked reports that Xi Jinping had ordered the PLA to be able to take Taiwan by force by the year 2020. As January 1, 2020 dawned, Xi also had his eyes on the SCS as an achievable objective that year. The two objectives were inextricably linked. The SCS would be taken first.

    On January 21, 2020, Xi ordered five large island-building dredges to deploy from Hainan Island, along with auxiliary vessels and equipment associated with the initial SCS artificial island construction. Their destination: Scarborough Shoal, 124 miles off Luzon, claimed by the Philippines but effectively owned by China since it illegally took control of it in 2012. American and other countries’ intelligence organizations quickly detected the movements.

    An artificial island at Scarborough Shoal would provide the PRC an air and naval base that would block American military entry into the SCS via the Bashi Channel. It would also provide a southern avenue of attack for a Taiwan invasion.

    In response, the U.S. and the Philippines agreed to increase military presence around Scarborough Shoal. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command directed preparatory actions, to include ordering the U.S. Seventh Fleet forces to “take station” twelve nautical miles off the shoal no later than January 24.

    Meanwhile, China “swarmed” hundreds of fishing boats, Coast Guard vessels, and maritime militia ships across the SCS, similar to its swarming operation to stymie Philippine construction in the Spratlys in late 2018. China hoped to intimidate and deceive U.S.-led coalition forces in the SCS, and to draw them from the shoal. In a military confrontation, the intermingled “non-combatant” vessels would distract and confuse coalition commanders, and provide the PLA continuous intelligence and fire direction support.

    On January 26, the PRC declared an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over SCS, and a task force including its one aircraft carrier, fifteen surface combatants, and ten attack submarines set sail south from Hainan Island. Simultaneously, PLA Air Force deployed fighter/attack aircraft to Hainan and bases along China’s southeast coastline, to include squadrons of Su-27 Flankers and FB-7 Flounders capable of maritime strike operations. PLA Rocket Forces opposite Taiwan in southeast China were placed on highest alert, armed with multiple regiments of short-and medium-range ballistic missiles.

    Russian naval and air forces in Far East Military District were placed at a heightened state of alert, at Beijing’s request. Beijing and the Russian Federation conducted increasingly sophisticated military exercises together for nearly a decade. China hoped Russia’s perceived possible military engagement would help dissuade the U.S. from fighting for the SCS. Although Russia sent backchannel messages to Washington it would not engage in a fight for the SCS, the United States and Japan began contingency planning.

    Globally, Beijing orchestrated mass demonstrations and “peace protests” by its United Front organizations in major cities. Simultaneously, it accelerated cyber attacks and began sabotage operations in “enemy” countries to disrupt military operations and national-level decision-making processes.

    But Beijing’s coercive deterrence and political warfare campaigns had already failed. Washington, having thrown off a nearly four-decade policy of appeasement towards China, prepared for military confrontation.

    With Japanese air and naval forces, U.S. forces assigned to Japan were ordered to heightened alert status. Additional combat aircraft were deployed to the region, and naval surface combatants were deployed to the southern Ryukyu Islands. Additional Japanese ground forces deployed to the Nansei Shoto area, equipped with anti-ship missiles.

    Well aware that hostilities in the SCS could fatally threaten Taiwan, Taipei placed its armed forces on highest alert as well, and began civil defense preparations.

    The U.S. Navy’s forward-deployed aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, sailed east of Okinawa with a battle group, and a second carrier battle group set sail from San Diego. Two additional squadrons of F-22 stealth fighters were deployed to the Pacific, one squadron to Kadena Air Base on Okinawa and the other to Guam. Meanwhile, B-2 stealth bombers deployed to Guam.

    U.S. Marines quickly established a series of small island outposts and embarked on small amphibious platforms spread across the region. Armed with anti-aircraft and long-range anti-ship missiles, the Marines would contribute significantly to the coalition’s SCS “anti-access/area denial” strategy. Army forces with similar capabilities began deploying from U.S. bases to Japan.

    On January 28, Beijing declared all of its coastal Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) to be “foreign military-free zones” and defined all sea space inside China’s declared “9-Dashed Line Map” to comprise China’s “Blue Sovereign Soil.” Beijing insisted “no exceptions will be allowed” to this unilateral maritime sovereignty designation.

    On January 29, the PRC initiated a virtual repeat of its September 30, 2018 Lanzhou-USS Decatur incident. There were no illusions in Beijing about the consequences: there would be shooting, and casualties.

    But Xi and his inner circle were confident the U.S. would back down as it had so often done in the past. If not, they were confident their forces would defeat the U.S.-led coalition forces if a battle ensued.

    No one in the Politburo seemed haunted by the ghosts of The Great War’s nearly twenty-two million dead, or by visions of the shattered and forgotten Austro-Hungarian, Russian, German, and Ottoman empires.

    Like the assassination that sparked World War I, the incident that started the SCS war was simple, but violent.

    A PRC-flagged fishing ship, with a Chinese Coast Guard cutter escort, made a “beeline” track directly towards the USS Chancellorsville, a U.S. Seventh Fleet guided missile cruiser. Despite the Chancellorsville’s radio warnings to the Chinese ships that they were on a collision course, the two Chinese ships continued directly towards the U.S. ship.

    After attempting to evade the oncoming ships and exhausting all other peaceful options, the Chancellorsville fired four warning shots fired from its forward 5-inch gun.

    Within minutes, the PLA Navy guided missile destroyer Lanzhou (DDG-170), operating over the horizon some 100nm away, fired a salvo of four YJ-62 long-range anti-ship cruise missiles.

    Thus, China began its war for the South China Sea.

    NATO immediately invoked Article 5 of the Washington Treaty and implemented Military Response Options, to include immediate force deployments to the South and East China Seas in support of NATO’s long-standing democratic partners there. The EU rapidly engaged as well, initiating consultations to invoke the Treaty on European Union, ostensibly for defense against Chinese aggression impacting France’s Asia-Pacific territories.

    Globally, countries that hoped that they would never have to choose sides in a war between the U.S. and China found it was finally time to choose sides.

    China had, in effect, begun World War III.


    LOL "YJ-62" by 2020 it will be railgun shells raining down on USN ships
    :agree:
     
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  2. OCguy

    OCguy FULL MEMBER

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    Nuclear Holocaust fantasy fiction?

    Nobody will be around to reflect on who started WWIII, and the chain of events that leads to a full exchange will be just as trivial.
     
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  3. Feng Leng

    Feng Leng SENIOR MEMBER

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    A partial nuclear exchange is likely if not unavoidable. The most likely scenario would be nuclear strikes on all US assets west of California including Hawaii and Guam. A full nuclear exchange is also possible if not probable. In that scenario, China will focus on striking the richest neighborhoods in America while leaving ghettos intact so the ghetto people can take over the remanents of the US after the war.
     
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  4. OCguy

    OCguy FULL MEMBER

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    Do they really teach you that a full exchange is survivable?

    Scary ignorance.
     
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  5. UKBengali

    UKBengali ELITE MEMBER

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    Dude, what will happen when 1-2 US SSBNs shower all Chinese cities over 1 million population with thermonuclear warheads?
     
  6. Sanchez

    Sanchez SENIOR MEMBER

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    US have always chickened out in Asian conflicts. You think under Trump you guys still hold a big di'xk!

    They dare only shower BD like weak countries!
     
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  7. UKBengali

    UKBengali ELITE MEMBER

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    I sense butt-hurt at BD again.:(
     
  8. OCguy

    OCguy FULL MEMBER

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    One thing you'll notice is that most Americans won't get excited and engage in this type of nuke-warrior nonsense.
     
  9. Sanchez

    Sanchez SENIOR MEMBER

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    No? Then how do you engage China, 5G?

    Right, I sensed how you guys really are from the Rohinya discussions. Don't worry about China! Mind your own buz.
     
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  10. OCguy

    OCguy FULL MEMBER

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    Not sure what the 5G thing is...I have a 5G Galaxy S10 ordered already.

    But on topic, this is why it's not a game to joke about war:

    Pick a city. Pick the known yield of your likely adversarie's warhead. Make sure you designate air-burst and casualties/fallout.

    Read the entire results. And that is just one of X that your rival possesses. No joke.

    https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
     
  11. Yaseen1

    Yaseen1 SENIOR MEMBER

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    nuclear war is highly possible in future between Pakistan and india and it may lead to full scale nuclear war between all major nuclear power like china,russia and u.s.The way white terrorist killed innocents in newzeland it reflects that these white terrorists may get their hands on nukes in future and will kill non white people when trump like white extremists have control on nuke codes of u.s
     
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  12. eldarlmari

    eldarlmari SENIOR MEMBER

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    To be specific, the US has never won a war in East asia after world war 2(they defeated japan with the help of china, vice versa).

    They lost the Vietnam war and the Korean War isn't technically over
     
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  13. OCguy

    OCguy FULL MEMBER

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    Nobody buys this
     
  14. ZeEa5KPul

    ZeEa5KPul FULL MEMBER

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    :omghaha::omghaha::omghaha::omghaha::omghaha:

    You're an even dumber and less self-aware version of @F-22Raptor. I didn't think it was possible, yet here we are.
     
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  15. crankthatskunk

    crankthatskunk FULL MEMBER

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    I promise you this, If 3/4 big cities in different states are taken out, there would be no USA. The states would exercise their option of independent states. The Union would be broken.
     
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