• Sunday, December 15, 2019

How can Pakistan counter India’s ABM system?

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by DrSomnath999, Sep 4, 2011.

  1. dilpakistani

    dilpakistani FULL MEMBER

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    the best option is to launch relays first ... they will exhaust the ABM capability and then follow it with a barrage of missiles salvo. ABM ability even if fully implemented will be a false sense of security. We are not houtie tribes man who will fire one or two systems...
     
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  2. Vijyes Yechury

    Vijyes Yechury BANNED

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    I hope you understand that as soon as India detects even one launch, it will launch all its missiles at once. India has extensive radar surveillance that can extend to over 600km. A 2000 km radar is also in development.

    If your idea is to take out BMD system by firing decoys, that won't matter as India would have retaliated. BMD is only to stop a surprise attack to give enough time to react. Once surprise is lost, Pakistan won't be able to fire another missile before massive retaliation from India.

    Why do you think you will be allowed to fire decoys, then fire next round of missiles?

    Also, ABM has lower range than a ballistic missile and hence one launcher can carry more ABM than BM. If Pakistan can get 100 BM firing transport erector launcher (which can fire one MRBM), India needs 20 BMD launcher that will fire 5 missiles each. Even here, BMD has advantages over BM.
     
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  3. Dalit

    Dalit SENIOR MEMBER

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    An ABM system is virtually ineffective in the Pakistan India scenario.

    Pakistan is prepared for all outcomes and continues to take appropriate measures to tackle them. Pakistan has adequate firepower to respond in a manner which will cut all limbs of the enemy. Everything else is just talk.

    It is a false sense of security. Especially in the Pak India scenario. India can never meet the prerequisites needed for setting up an effective ABM system.

    Having said that, we need to remain vigilant and continue to work on dismantling Indian designs. Just like the Cold Start doctrine was put to rest with the induction of Nasr. We need to bo innovative and put technology to good use.
     
  4. BHarwana

    BHarwana ELITE MEMBER

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    countering ABM is very simple Pakistan should make unguided Ballistic missiles. Some thing like katyusha rocket of Hezbollah. Use these unguided rockets to serve as decoys for an actual strike.
    Secondly the most proven strategy against ABM comes from one of the poorest country in middle east Yemen. There is a big lesson to learn from Yemen like the way Yemeni Houthis used home made self destruct drones to attack ABM systems and then launch Ballistic missiles after wards.
     
  5. Cookie Monster

    Cookie Monster SENIOR MEMBER

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    Dude quit talking about BMD systems like you know how they work. Look at the math u did...u think a BMD system's 20 launchers with 5 missiles each will take care of 100 incoming ballistic missiles? That's not how it works. First u r assuming a 100% success rate in hitting all of those...no BMD system in the world has that kind of a success rate. Secondly modern ballistic missiles have the capability(in view of BMD systems) to do maneuvers that makes it harder to predict their trajectory.

    Last but not least as u claim in ur posts above that India can detect a missile at launch...that doesn't help India in any way. Once a missile is launched u have very little time to detect its trajectory and fire before it is able to reach the upper atmosphere and deploy its warhead for reentry. India's only chance is to destroy it upon reentry...and if the missile happens to be MIRV with decoys then the chance of successfully destroying the actual warheads lowers even more. The solution would be to launch multiple interceptors in order to try to get them all and with all those interceptor missiles u just successfully destroyed one MIRV ballistic missile...that's how saturation happens...there would be more targets(warheads) on the radar than the interceptors available.

    As for ur claim that Babur has become a waste bcuz of BMD systems...all I can say is go read up on how BMD systems work. They are hardly effective against cruise missiles bcuz cruise missiles don't follow a predictable ballistic trajectory. Additionally Babur is designed to be stealthy and can travel in terrain hugging mode in which case the radar would most likely not be able to detect it against the background.

    In conclusion it's good to have BMD systems as compared to not having them at all but to think that u r 100% safe now that u have them is idiotic. If worst comes to worst and a nuclear exchange does happen between India/Pak it would destroy both countries even with India's BMD capability.
     
  6. Vijyes Yechury

    Vijyes Yechury BANNED

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    Most of the area is rural. Unguided ballistic missiles will end up in some field or forest and kill some cows and deers. :hitwall:

    First, let me clear the cruise missile part-
    Babur is waste not becayse of BMD but because of SAM and BVRAAM. All subsonic cruise missiles are far inferior to an aeroplane which can travel at over 1Mach speed and can maneuver much more than a cruise missile. If a SAM can take out a plane, it can take out Babur with 5 times the ease. India had SAMs like Akash, BARAK-8, QRSAM and also has BVRAAM ASTRA to take out subsonic missiles like a plane takes down another plane.

    Now, about Ballistic Missile -

    Lets take a scenario- Pakistan launches 100 BM from lahore towards Delhi. India immediately detects the launch and before the missiles reach India, a massive counter attack will be launched.

    Next, people will be asked to go inside heavy concrete houses or buildings in the city to reduce damage. And jammers to jam the satellite signals of GPS, Beidou, Glonass and Galileo will be deployed extensively. Since Pakistan doesn't have access to military grade location and guidance system due to lack of satellite constellation, it won't be able to guide its missile in a jamproof manner

    Next, the missile won't be intercepted in launch stage as there is too little time. But, India will then try to intercept in exo-atmosphere with theatre defence systems. Few will be destroyed while most will continue.

    Finally, point defence BMD systems to attack the incoming missiles at reentry stage will be fired. The probability of success for short range missiles under 500km will be over 75% due to slower speed. But, for MRBM, it is about 50% or less. Generally, a BMD launcher can launch 4-5 missiles. Depending on the number of launchers available, the ratio of ABM to BM can vary. A large number of warheads will be neutralised while some will strike the targets.

    Due to precautions taken of getting people inside the house, jamming the guidance and destroying over half the warheads, the damage is significantly reduced. On the other hand, immediate detection of launch and retaliation, Pakistan won't be able to fire a second wave.

    Next, it comes down to who can withstand the damage of the first wave strike and still continue. This depends on technology levels to mass produce equipment to cover the losses and most importantly, food supply (India is food grain surplus and area under other crops like sugarcane, cotton, banana etc can be diverted into food grain production). So on....
     
  7. $@rJen

    $@rJen BANNED

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    Wow... Did you really say you're going to launch 100 BM in a Go??? :o:
    I guess you did:agree:

    Its time to get off the chair, take a rest from gaming
     
  8. Vijyes Yechury

    Vijyes Yechury BANNED

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    Some nuclear test results-




    It shows that first strike of nuclear bombs are quite insignificant to destroy everything completely. So, more than just detonation of few warheads is needed for massive destruction.

    Please note that Indians don't use wooden houses. Even the poor reside in some form of brick/mud houses. Wooden houses are bad for protection against bombs. Thanks to high population, wood is too costly in India and hence more and more people are giving up wooden houses or even houses with tile roof. I guess, it is same in Pakistan, Iran etc where wood is expensive.

    Interestingly, USA people mostly use wooden houses and hence are more likely to suffer greater damage in nuclear strike. Japanese also suffered heavily in Hiroshima and Nagasaki due to wooden houses.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
  9. BHarwana

    BHarwana ELITE MEMBER

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    ABM will always target in terminal phase thus it will never know which BM is guided or unguided. S-400 is designed for the terminal Phase so there is glitch that can be exploited lol. Noob
     
  10. Cookie Monster

    Cookie Monster SENIOR MEMBER

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    In order to take out a plane or an incoming missile with a SAM system u have to first detect it. Planes are a lot easier to detect for the radar bcuz they fly at higher altitudes. A stealth cruise missile that flies at subsonic speeds while flying low(in terrain hugging mode) is among one of the hardest things to detect for a radar. But in any case u r welcome to believe what u wish.
    U r wrong from the get go. Neither Pak nor India will fire just a 100 missiles on one city. This isn't a teaser trailer. Both countries know that they are nuclear powers. If it comes to exchanging blows in a nuclear event...they would both go all out in the first round bcuz they know what would be coming their way in response. Again...there wouldn't be a scenario where Pak fires a 100 missiles at Delhi and waits to see what happens next. Both countries will either not go nuclear in the event of a war or if they do then they will go all out in the very first attempt not expecting to survive the enemy's response.

    First, I highly doubt ur claims about India having such jamming capability to be able to jam multiple frequencies for all these systems like GPS, GLONASS, Beidou and Galileo. Do provide me with sources on which u r basing these claims.

    Secondly if we entertain this utter BS...
    Tell me how would India extend these Jammers' range throughout Pak territory? So unless India can accomplish that...on Pak's side the missile will operate just fine and Pak would be able to launch.

    Or are u saying that these jammers would only be deployed on the Indian side to jam the targeting ability of incoming Pak missiles? In that case it will also wreak havoc on Indian systems in the jammed zones that use GPS/GLONASS(keep in mind that ur own system IRNSS wouldn't become operational until next year).

    Also there is such a thing as inertial guidance/terrestrial guidance/celestial guidance/astro-inertial guidance etc. These types of guidance systems don't rely on any external input from other systems(like GPS) for positioning. For example celestial guidance/astro-inertial guidance is used in SLBMs(for second strike capability). In case of Pak, Babur can use terrestrial guidance like TERCOM(Terrain Contour Matching) and DSMAC(Digitized Scene-Mapping Area Correlator) along with inertial navigation.

    Next time just keep it simple and don't invent things like jamming GPS signals without backing up ur claims.

    Again there would be no second wave from Pak nor a second wave from India. They would both go at it all at once bcuz they would know that there wouldn't be a second chance once the enemy responds with their missiles. U r probably getting confused here with the "second strike capability". That is a whole different thing. It doesn't mean a second wave of missiles after the first strike. It means that if by chance a country is caught off guard and all their land based missiles are destroyed by enemy's strike before they even had a chance to launch(preemptively)...they can still destroy their enemy from submarine based nuclear missiles. This is bcuz submarines are mobile and a lot harder to track. This capability is what is known as "second strike capability".
    :hitwall: Nothing would grow in the entire region once a nuclear exchange happens. In fact it would adversely affect other countries' crop production as well. There was a study done that assumed just 100 Hiroshima sized bombs detonating in a nuclear exchange between India/Pak...u should read it to get an idea of how destructive that would be...and then imagine how many more nuclear weapons both countries have, which generally have bigger yields than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima

    http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/fivemilliontonsofsmoke/

    To sum it all up, either a nuclear war wouldn't happen between these two countries bcuz of the fears of MAD scenario. Or if it ever comes to that then both countries would go all out in the very first attempt holding nothing back. The results would be utter annihilation of the entire subcontinent regardless of if India has BMD or not. Those that wouldn't be immediately killed by the blast would suffer painfully from radiation sickness before dying. Others who survive even that would be forced to live in hell. There would be very little to no infrastructure, no electricity, lack of clean water and a shortage of food. In fact the food shortage would be so severe that the survivors would starve to death. No help will come from other countries bcuz they will also be facing food shortages and would be extra pissed at India/Pak for causing it.

    Can u read or r u too stupid? I didn't say that...another low IQ Indian did. I was addressing his calculations. Here's a hint...try reading his post that I had quoted...I provided a link so u don't have to use ur pea brain
    https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/how-...ndias-abm-system.127894/page-56#post-10022610

    :hitwall: It's just one idiot after another.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
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  11. Vijyes Yechury

    Vijyes Yechury BANNED

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    I will clarify about Babur once and for all -

    All fighter planes can do what babur or any subsonic missile can do - fly low, fly high. Even JF17 can do that. That is also the reason why there is a big gap of several hundred metres without any construction or barrier at the border and extensive radar surveillance. The missile has to cross this gap and will be detected. Only way for a cruise missile to be undetected is by somehow vanishing or using tunnel to cross the bare border. Also, AWACS system fly high in the sky to watch over these kind of low flying objects. AWACS not only spot aerial high flying targets but also low flying ones. So, cruise missiles are a waste against SAMs. Since cruise missiles are slow, intercepting them will be very easy. So, forget using cruise missiles completely. Even HQ9 SAM can take out Indian Nirbhay missile. Cruise missiles are for SECOND wave strikes only and are very useful at that due to their accuracy under satellite guidance.

    Next, Ballistic Missiles,

    Yes, if there is a launch, it will be all out launch without regards to second wave. But, you are forgetting that the number of launchers that will be needed will be so huge that it will be impractical to use all missiles together. The number of missiles will always outnumber number of launchers. Also, I was countering the logic that decoys can be used to make the BMD run out if ABMs. This becomes impractical as it will unduly increase the pressure of launches. Many useless missiles have to be launched for decoy purpose which will be outright wasteful. That is why I spoke of second wave. 100 missiles per city is indeed all out war. 100 city for entire India is not what I said. I guess, you are the low IQ person to not understand it and abuse me!

    Next, about jammers of satellite signals - any country can jam satellite signals easily over its territory and maybe even upto a few kilometres into neighbouring countries. India has more than a billion mobile phone users and several towers per square kilometre. Obviously, jamming a satellite signal is not an issue in today's world. It may use multiple transponders to jam all satellite signals, but it is easy. There are jamproof military grade signals available to counter just this but requires military satellite. India has IRNSS operational already. Only 1 satellite has lost its clocks but even then decent accuracy can be obtained.

    Babur uses GPS. Terrain mapping is never fully accurate as distance traveled is hard to calculate. There is no wheel in babur to calculate the number of revolution and hence distance travelled. Brahmos missile had suffered disorientation similarly due to USA shutting down GPS on the day of test fire due to inaugural speech of Obama on that day

    The ballistic missiles use satellite guidance or inertial guidance. Inertial guidance is highly inaccurate due to wind speed change, variable atmospheric density etc. Satellite signals can be jammed and satellite will only be capable of guiding the missile till it is in pakistani sky. Without satellite guidance, a missile merely becomes a rocket like the scud missile

    Nuclear fallout is overstated. Nuclear bombs are not that great nor is it all destroying. Look how quickly Hiroshima was rebuilt. USA use tested over 250 bombs in open sky and with little effect. Also, look at the videos I posted in above comment about the effects of nuclear bombs. Nuclear bomb ia not all powerful. Even the radiation is not that great. Media simply overhyped it to avoid war and spread misinformation. The nuclear winter theory assumes that nuclear bomb will set everything on fire and cause massive smoke. Reality is that the shockwave carries 95% of energy while heat is only 5%. The shockwave will extinguish all the fire started by the heat blast. So, subcontinent will not be destroyed even if 10000 nukes of 100kT go off together
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
  12. Cookie Monster

    Cookie Monster SENIOR MEMBER

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    So u keep talking about these jammers and yet u haven't provided a single link even though I asked...therefore I'm still not convinced.

    As for IRNSS, unlike u I can provide sources to back up what I say. No IRNSS is not yet in use by the military. The satellites are there but the system doesn't become operational until 2018. This below is copied from wikipedia...
    "The constellation is already in orbit and system is expected to be operational from early 2018[5][6] after a system check.[7] NAVIC will provide two levels of service, the 'standard positioning service' will be open for civilian use, and a 'restricted service' (an encrypted one) for authorized users (including military)."

    Link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Regional_Navigation_Satellite_System

    Considering ur evaluation of the effects of nuclear bombs I'm assuming u didn't bother to read the study for which I provided a link. So I assume those researchers just wasted their time modeling(probably in a super computer) the effects of 100 Hiroshima sized nukes. They could've just simply asked u.

    You can keep living in ur make believe world. I'm a chemist...I know exactly how nuclear reactions and radiation works. There is no use in preaching me this pseudoscience u believe in.
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2017
  13. Vijyes Yechury

    Vijyes Yechury BANNED

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    If you had never known that GPS jammers existed, here is a link to show GPS jammers not only exist but also commercially available at throw away prices. You can order one for yourself and test it out -

    URL link
    bit.ly(/)2h9iRL2
     
  14. sputnik

    sputnik FULL MEMBER

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    yes u are absolutely right about Indian ABM and ur Idea is right of how to make fool out of it. Now please live in "True sense of security" and get life.
    On 1 hand Pakistani post articles on daily basis regarding how Indian military tech & Equipment are Junk and Mard-E-momin can decipher us on any given day but on other hand worried about same military tech & equipment.
     
  15. Cookie Monster

    Cookie Monster SENIOR MEMBER

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    I didn't say they don't exist. I asked that u provide a source that shows the specific ability of Indian armed forces having such a capability. This means having the ability to cover Indian land mass with these jammers.

    But nice attempt trying to get away with that by providing me with this commercial GPS jammer that only has a 16ft jamming radius. This doesn't prove squat about what u had claimed.

    If linking a gizmodo article about a GPS jammer somehow means that Indian army has the capability to jam multiple frequencies(GPS, Beidou, etc) over such a large landmass. Then going by ur reasoning I can easily provide unrelated articles about 5th gen jets, which somehow would mean that PAF has 5th gen jets.