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Half of Indians likely to have coronavirus by February

beijingwalker

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Half of Indians likely to have coronavirus by February

By Shilpa Jamkhandikar | Reuters

MUMBAI, India, 19 October 2020

At least half of India’s 1.3 billion people are likely to have been infected with the new coronavirus by next February, helping slow the spread of the disease, a member of a federal government committee tasked with providing projections said on Monday.

India has so far reported 7.55 million cases of the coronavirus and is second only to the United States in terms of total infections.

But COVID-19 infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.

“Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February,” Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.

The committee’s estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the federal government’s serological surveys, which showed that only around 14 per cent of the population had been infected, as of September.

But Agrawal said serological surveys might not be able to get sampling absolutely correct because of the sheer size of the population that they were surveying.
Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model.

“We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories – reported cases and infections that do not get reported,” Agrawal said.

The committee warned that their projections would not hold up if precautions were not followed, and cases could spike by up to 2.6 million infections in a single month if measures such as social distancing and wearing masks were ignored.

Experts have warned that infections could rise in India as the holiday season nears, with celebrations for the Hindu festivals of Durga Puja and Diwali due this month and in mid-November, respectively.

 

YeBeWarned

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This freaking flu/Virus has been screwing the whole freaking world, its time that we all work together for a vaccine which is available to everyone in cheat cost ..
 

N.Siddiqui

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India is a caste based Apartheid country and not a democracy in reality, high caste ruling Brahmins are least concerned if millions of low caste Dalits and Muslims dies.

Dalits and Muslims are considered not humans in India and yearly thousands of Dalits are killed by higher caste Brahmins on smallest of matters.


Many Indians don’t consider Dalits, Muslims and Tribals to be human, Rahul Gandhi
“The shameful truth is many Indians don’t consider Dalits, Muslims, and Tribals to be human,” Rahul Gandhi has said. Earlier BJP’s Dr Subramanian Swamy said that Muslims are not equal citizens since they pose a threat to the world. Is the space shrinking for Muslims in India?

 
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Mace

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Half of Indians likely to have coronavirus by February

By Shilpa Jamkhandikar | Reuters

MUMBAI, India, 19 October 2020

At least half of India’s 1.3 billion people are likely to have been infected with the new coronavirus by next February, helping slow the spread of the disease, a member of a federal government committee tasked with providing projections said on Monday.

India has so far reported 7.55 million cases of the coronavirus and is second only to the United States in terms of total infections.

But COVID-19 infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.

“Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February,” Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters.

The committee’s estimate for the current spread of the virus is much higher than the federal government’s serological surveys, which showed that only around 14 per cent of the population had been infected, as of September.

But Agrawal said serological surveys might not be able to get sampling absolutely correct because of the sheer size of the population that they were surveying.
Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model.

“We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories – reported cases and infections that do not get reported,” Agrawal said.

The committee warned that their projections would not hold up if precautions were not followed, and cases could spike by up to 2.6 million infections in a single month if measures such as social distancing and wearing masks were ignored.

Experts have warned that infections could rise in India as the holiday season nears, with celebrations for the Hindu festivals of Durga Puja and Diwali due this month and in mid-November, respectively.

Undesirable development. On the other hand herd immunity developed could do away with the need for hastily developed vaccines. The falling infection numbers right now might actually indicate herd immunity taking hold.
 

SMC

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CCP is so incompetence and so arrogant gives the whole world the virus
Undesirable development. On the other hand herd immunity developed could do away with the need for hastily developed vaccines. The falling infection numbers right now might actually indicate herd immunity taking hold.
What is the opinion of Indians on karma these days? They used to tell Pakistanis that bomb blasts in Pakistan were karma for deeds Pakistan did in the past. How is India now feeling about karma in 2020?
 

Mace

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What is the opinion of Indians on karma these days? They used to tell Pakistanis that bomb blasts in Pakistan were karma for deeds Pakistan did in the past. How is India now feeling about karma in 2020?
Which events in India happening now you believe may be affected by karma?
 

UKBengali

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India can "afford" it as they have a young and slim population and IFR rate is likely to be 0.1% at most.

They will be a case study on what kind of "herd immunity" exists for this new virus.
 

INS_Vikramaditya

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India can "afford" it as they have a young and slim population and IFR rate is likely to be 0.1% at most.

They will be a case study on what kind of "herd immunity" exists for this new virus.
Not just young, I know of few individuals in their 60s and 70s who have recovered without showing any symptom at all. Either the strain present in India is less deadly or just the immunity of people in developed world is too low. Too much sanitation and better healthcare plus over reliance on drugs have decreased their natural ability to fight off new infections on their own.
 

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