Yes the growth will be higher than official projection. The SBP already updated its projection last month in Nov to 1.5-2.5% from previous 2.1% growth ( LSM was expected to be -ve 1% to 2%). IMO now that the LSM has recorded a growth of 7.4% in the first 5 months, we can easily surpass the projected growth and SBP will again update in the near future.
There are a lot of other ways to accelerate growth by incentivizing private sector where a lot of work is being done. Construction industry, expansion in industrial base, private sector projects.
Fiscal deficit stands at 1.8% for the first 5 months which is not that bad (Mostly due to increase in debt payment), government target is around 7.5% but in my opinion it will not exceed the target. We should settle at moderate growth instead of extra spending because with injection comes inflation unless it can be countered preferably local instead of import based.
bigge rissue is uncertianty around power sector..you cannot run the economy with such a big uncertianty
if the power sector is sorted out the uncertianty will be lifted and you wills ee hige invetsment in manufatcuring
uncertianty around
1. Gas
2. electricty cost
3. circular debt
4. oil supply
there are numerous issues that need sorting out..
i think if govt does two things it will tackle the bulk of problems
1. reneg with IPPs to bring electricity cost low and start privatization of distribution companies
2. IP gas pipeline, LNG gas pipelien and allowing private sector to fully invest in gas
so far i haven't heard any movement on IP gas pipeline, i hope as soon as sanctions are lifted this year it can be built within 18 months
1.2 BCF of IP gas will basically curtail all the shortage. key is what price do we get