You are an expert on economy, do you think things are heading in the right direction? You do understand that there would always be some CAD given our poor export base.
A negative CAD of 1-2% will never be an issue in growing economy
Problem occurs when it growns beyond 3%
It was at 8% in 2018, currently surplus
With 5% growth in exports (with very strong performance in new areas like IT pharma) and double digit growth in remittances i think pakistan will maintian a CAD within 1-2%
I expect govt to achieve 5% growth in final yr if it doesnt do major blunders and we dont see any major global crisis and if it resolves the energy sector issues
Every month the Min of Finance issues a Monthly Economic Indicator and for every month this fiscal year it has stayed near or around 4%. Don't believe me here have a look yourself:
For your understanding I drew a red line from the 4% growth number and except for August every month is above 4%. August saw a decline mainly due to devastating rains brought Karachi to a standstill. The yellow line shows start of fiscal year.
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Some renowned economists are also predicting it:
2.5% is conservative estimate it can go up
You will see soon IMF WB AB revising its growth to 2.5.
But this is fragile ..any law & order situation or global crisis can destroy this momentum
Thr biggest threat is energy crisis
The govt has to move quickly to get it LNG ,IPPs, circular debt issues sorted out