What's new

Govt in anxiety over rupee’s slide

Wood

SENIOR MEMBER
Mar 30, 2013
4,840
-10
4,055
Country
India
Location
Canada
Flood impact do not happen this fast at macroeconomic levels.

More to do with unending fiscal blunders.

PKR crossed 240
Such dramatic fall within a short period could be because of speculators. Recall the George Soros bet against UK pound.


I think that because of the devastation due to flood, the speculators are gambling that Pak GDP will tank. This has led to an oversold PKR.
 
Sep 8, 2009
36,010
68
39,006
Country
Pakistan
Location
China
Congrats on the rupee slide , for Banana Republic of JANRAIL's Pakistan
We all know it will Tank without Elections , Metric Pass Janrail thinks otherwise

Excellent planning idiot Bajwa

Should change the Pakistan Rupee , remove Mohammad Ali Jinnah from Rupee and put Nawaz Sharif's gora buttocks on rupee , let bajwa kiss it daily. This new note will be valued cheaper then toilet paper if the trend continues for devaluation


I am trying to find creative ways to cuss due to my anger but I am running out of ideas
 
Last edited:

epebble

FULL MEMBER
Sep 21, 2022
1,654
0
1,063
Country
United States
Location
United States
THE DISASTER IS CURRENCY SMUGGLING

SO WHAT IS THE GENESIS OF PKR SMUGGLING,&DEPRECIATION ?

IT IS IMPORT SMUGGLING ! THIS IS THE POISON PILL

HOW TO KILL IT ? IT IS VERY SIMPLE !

ASK JEBELALI TO GIVE BL WISE DATA, OF ALL SHIPMENTS TO PAKISTAN - & CHECK WITH PAKISTANI PORT RECORDS. THE CARGOS,WILL NOT SHOW

NO PROBLEM !

ASK THE DUBAI GOVTT TO CHECK THE MODE OF PAYMENT TO THE CONSIGNOR - &NAME OF PAYEEE
CHECK THE NAME OF THE PAYEE, WITH THE CONSIGNEE ON THE BL TO PAKISTAN
THE 2 NAMES WILL NOT BE THE SAME

Y DID THE CONSIGNOR ACCEPT THE PAYMENT FROM A 3 RD PERSON,TO DISCHARGE THE DUES OF THE PAKISTANI CONSIGNEE

TRACE THE PAKISTANI CONSIGNEE (AS THERE WILL BE EMAILS &CALLS LOGS,TO THE CONIGNOR) ,&ASK HIM TO EXPLAIN THE MISSING CARGO,&THE PAYMENT TO CONSIGNOR

THIS IS PURE MONEY LAUNDERING ! THE DUBAI CONSIGNOR,WILL GO TO JAIL &NO DUBAI CONSIGNOR OR SELLER,WILL ACCEPT PAYMENT, FROM ANYONE ,OTHER THAN CONSIGNEE

THAT WILL KILL THE CURRENCY SMUGGLING ! dindooohindoo

USD = ULTIMATE WMD , IN GAME OF ROMAN ROULETTE,CONCEALED AS A TROJAN

LIKE THE TRITIUM IN A HYDRO BOMB - THE SWIFT IS THE BOOSTER TOOL FOR THE USD WMD

AS PUTIN REALISED - WHEN RUSSIA WAS FROZEN OUT,FROM USD PAYMENTS - THE USD WAS NOT EVEN WORTH THE COTTON IN IT

ROMAN ROULETTE - FOR PRC ! CANNOT DUMP THE USD OR SELL THE R BILLS AS IT WILL ONLY HARM PRC.PRC CANNOT EVEN DEM& REDEMPTION OF USD/T-BILLS. IT IS A SLOW & SURE DEATH - IF YOU PLAY THE GAME

WMD - 1 ACTION BY 1 MAN IN THE US FED - EMITS CHAOS & DESTRUCTION ALLOVER THE DEVELOPING WORLD. PERPETIUAL FISSION - NO RADIATION, NO HEAT OR SHOCK WAVES FROM THE FISSION. NO DAMAGE TO INFRA OR ANIMALS - JUST THE SOULS OF HUMANS ARE DESTROYED - & GOVTTS TOPPLED. .NO KINETIC ACTION & SO, THERE IS NO BMD POSSIBLE

PERPETUAL FISSION = PERPETUAL USD PRINTING )LIKE THE U-235 FISSION) IN CASH & T-BILLS & ITS OCCASIONAL DRAWDOWN (AKIN TO THE REDUCTION OF THE HEU SPHERE AT THE START OF IMPLOSION in a N-BOMB).dindooohindoo

WHAT IS THE WAY TO CUT IMPORTS ?

Hiking BCD/CVD/ADD/SD is not the option, as the USD still flows out of the nation, for the CIF /FOB rates.

BAN is the solution

For the rich,this is not the time for luxury imports.So whether cars or tele or FMCG or White Goods or Cosmetics or Nutraceuticals ..... - which are priced beyond a price point - IT IS TIME TO BAN THE SAME.

As far as smuggling goes, the way to nail smuggling is to bust the AD selling the Cash USD - to get their source (of the USD - besides from banks), and to contact the load ports in HK/Dubai etc.,to state that if any banned item is on the BL or Shipping Bill or Invoice,that cargo cannot be loaded on the ship..In any case,the grey market USD rate is not driving the PKR collapse.

The 2nd is to obviate an activity which leads to a regulatory oversight or process controls.So if you ban imports (an activity) ,then to that extent the customs,warehousing,testing & other regulatory oversight is avoided,& so,the time & cost is saved,& also ,power cost is saved (for the govtt & the entire supply chain of that banned produce & the power & fuel cost to be spent on that product by the user)

The 3rd is that IMPORT SUBSTITUTABLE products, which CAN BE MADE IN PAKISTAN,albeit at a 10-20%,higher cost - can be banned, or have DUTY hikes of 30-40%,so that the CIF value of IMPORTED PRODUCT IS OBVIATED,AND ONLY THE COST OF IMPORTED GAS AND OIL ,used to make (the banned product)), in Pakistan is EXPENDED.That will bring down the Imported fuel cost,and the USD saved by the state can be shared with the local manufacturer, in terms of a subsidy, or a VAT waiver.dindooohindoo

The Punters know that PKR BET IS A 1 WAY BET ! EASY BET

This is PURE speculation by punters who KNOW that SBP will NOT spend its FX reserves to defend the PKR - by Selling USD from its FX reserves

But this is effecting the IBR and the importers FX rate -and thus,the rate of oil and gas and palm oil.

But the import rates of oil and gas and palm oil today are lower then when the PKR was 205.In any case,at the time of import,no USD is required - but the banks might require the importer to buy the forwards - which then reverse calculated - freezes the IBR of the PKR-USD.

At some point an SBP intervention will have to be done,to hammer the punters - as in any case,the import finance has to be met from FX reserves or trade loans or LOC - so the question is ,when to hammer the punters - and the source of USD for SBP.

Best option is to roll over IMPORT LCs Via Chinese Banks, and surprise the market and kill the USD demand
I don't think one can understand your logic. You should explain your ideas more clearly.

1. I don't think anyone is smuggling PKR. Usually, valuable items are smuggled. I don't think anyone considers PKR valuable. The currency 'smuggling' people seem to talk is informal transfer of foreign exchange from remitters to homes, reducing balance in formal banking channels.

2. Pretty much all imports have shut down besides petroleum and some essential goods. Most import dependent businesses are closing down due to lack of foreign exchange for inputs. Vegetables and medicines are being held up in ports due to lack of dollars. It is wasteful to institute some major data forensics project when imports will be minimal for foreseeable future.

3. Name of the game for foreseeable future is Import substitution. That is a must and involuntary since enough foreign exchange to cover imports is unlikely to be available and hence economy has to make a hard turn toward local production. Therein will lie the salvation out of the current crisis.
 

Clutch

ELITE MEMBER
Aug 3, 2008
15,552
2
22,309
Pakistan’s bigwigs have failed to craft an effective strategy to stop the free fall of the local currency, as policy discussions have so far remained focused on better management of borders and trade related payments.

According to official documents and background discussions with people involved in the process, Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif has taken numerous meetings in recent days and also set up a committee under the chairmanship of Finance Minister Miftah Ismail “to stabilise foreign currency markets”.

Despite taking input from the intelligence agencies, however, the authorities have failed to arrest the free fall of the currency. Continuing with the downtrend, the rupee on Monday closed at Rs237.91 to a dollar in the interbank. The rate in the open market was far above, trading around Rs244 to Rs246 to a dollar.

The constant downfall of the local currency has also eroded the gain of reduction in crude oil prices and people are forced to pay the highest rates in the country’s history.

Last Monday, the PM Shehbaz had set up a committee to review the dwindling currency situation. The committee met the next day and finalised its interim recommendations for the PM.

The decisions taken in these meetings, however, were largely related to strengthening the existing operational mechanisms. The meeting also decided that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) will issue a fresh notification mandating international passengers to declare their foreign currency, in addition to improving its system for real-time reporting of currency flows.

Outbound international passengers will have to declare their currency only if it is $5,000 or more, and inbound air travellers will make a declaration in case they hold $10,000 or more. The notification, which is expected soon, will end the uncertainty for international passengers.

At present, air travellers are required to make a foreign currency declaration, irrespective of the amount.

sources said that some of the new measures that the government has started adopting may bring marginal improvement in the situation. The government was still not fully realising the gravity of the situation, which requires drastic enforcement steps against hoarders, including bankers, and making accurate forecasts of currency demand and supply.



To stabilise the foreign currency markets, the PM constituted a committee on foreign exchange. Besides the Minister for Finance as its chairman, the adviser to PM on Establishment MNA Ali Pervez Malik, Governor SBP, Secretary Finance, Chairman FBR, Director General of Intelligence Bureau and representatives of the Director General ISI and the MI were included as members.

committee has been mandated to suggest measures to curb manipulation in foreign currency markets, propose steps to address market imperfections and unregulated illegal practices, including hawala and hundi trade, and smuggling of foreign currency.

The committee was also asked to recommend a strategy to discourage hoarding of foreign currency for speculative purposes and prevent misuse of debit and credit cards for outward remittance of foreign currency.

The sources maintained that the committee discussed these issues and submitted its findings to the PM last week.

In light of these recommendations, it has been decided that the FBR and the SBP will take measures to discourage over-invoicing by importers that is resulting in more than the required outflow of the foreign currency. The FBR and SBP will also take measures to ensure better monitoring of the borders, including depositing export proceeds from Afghanistan in a timely manner.

Accordingly, the FBR has been directed to streamline its currency declaration regime, which at one hand will reduce the hardships being faced by the commuters, and on the other will provide real time information about the inward and outward movement of currency through airports.

It has also been decided that the FBR will launch an application that will allow outbound passenger to make advance declarations without any hassle.

However, some of the participants of the meeting were of the view that these small steps would not help to soothe the nerves of the markets, as the government needs to make bold steps to address the situation. They said the central bank and government were not willing to crackdown on bankers, who have made billions betting on the rupee.

Similarly, the government’s targets for the exports, imports and current account deficits were also unrealistic and need to be revised to bring some realism in the numbers and then it could plan the inflows and outflows accordingly.


Excellent news! .... Let it all burn down. Only when Pakistanis are completely destroyed Nd starving like Somalia maybe (big maybe) will the Dalit slaves of Pakistan rise up.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom