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Goldman Sachs Projects Pakistan Economy to Become the World's 6th Largest by 2075

RiazHaq

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Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas project Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by 2075. The authors forecast Pakistan's GDP to rise to $12.7 trillion with per capita income of $27,100. India’s GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300. By 2075, China will be the top global economy, followed by India 2nd, US 3rd, Indonesia 4th, Nigeria 5th and Pakistan 6th.

GDP Ranking Changes Till 2075. Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research

Economic Impact of Slower Population Growth:

Daly and Gedminas argue that slowing population growth in the developed world is causing their economic growth to decelerate. At the same time, the economies of the developing countries are driven by their rising populations. Here are four key points made in the report:

1) Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth.

2) EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth.

3) A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated.

4) Less global inequality, more local inequality.

Demographic Dividend:

With rapidly aging populations and declining number of working age people in North America, Europe and East Asia, the demand for workers will increasingly be met by major labor exporting nations like Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and Vietnam. Among these nations, Pakistan is the only major labor exporting country where the working age population is still rising faster than the birth rate.

Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020, more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. Nearly 700,000 Pakistanis have already migrated in this calendar year as of October, 2022. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East was over half a million in the last decade.




World's 7th Largest Consumer Market:

Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. With its rising population of this working age group, Pakistan is projected by the World Economic Forum to become the world's 7th largest consumer market by 2030. Nearly 60 million Pakistanis will join the consumer class (consumers spending more than $11 per day) to raise the country's consumer market rank from 15 to 7 by 2030. WEF forecasts the world's top 10 consumer markets of 2030 to be as follows: China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, Japan, Egypt and Mexico. Global investors chasing bigger returns will almost certainly shift more of their attention and money to the biggest movers among the top 10 consumer markets, including Pakistan. Already, the year 2021 has been a banner year for investments in Pakistani technology startups.

Record Remittances From Overseas Pakistanis:

Pakistan is already seeing high levels of labor export and record remittances of over $30 billion pouring into the country. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates(UAE) are the top two sources of remittances but the biggest increase (58%) in remittances is seen this year from Pakistanis in the next two sources: the United Kingdom and the United States.

Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.


Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world. India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.

Pakistan Demographics

About two million Pakistanis are entering the workforce every year. The share of the working age population in Pakistan is increasing while the birth rate is declining. This phenomenon, known as demographic dividend, is coinciding with declines in working age populations in developed countries. It is creating an opportunity for over half a million Pakistani workers to migrate and work overseas, and send home record remittances.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan is the 7th Largest Source of Migrants in OECD Nations

Pakistani-Americans: Young, Well-educated and Prosperous

Last Decade Saw 16.5 Million Pakistanis Migrate Overseas

Pakistan Remittance Soar 30X Since Year 2000

Pakistan's Growing Human Capital

Two Million Pakistanis Entering Job Market Every Year

Pakistan Projected to Be 7th Largest Consumer Market By 2030

Hindu Population Growth Rate in Pakistan

Do South Asian Slums Offer Hope?

How "Illiterate" Are Pakistan's "Illiterate" Cell Phone Users?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network


 
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RiazHaq

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Pakistan is a young nation with a lot of unrealized potential. Over the last 75 years, it is important to recognize that all basic indicators of progress such as income, employment, education, health, nutrition, electricity use, telecommunications and transportation have shown significant improvements. Given Pakistan's population and its demographic dividend, there is no reason to believe it won't grow to join the largest economies in the world.



Pakistan%20GDP%20Growth%201950%20to%202022.png
 
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Super Falcon

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Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas project Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by 2075. The authors forecast Pakistan's GDP to rise to $12.7 trillion with per capita income of $27,100. India’s GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300. By 2075, China will be the top global economy, followed by India 2nd, US 3rd, Indonesia 4th, Nigeria 5th and Pakistan 6th.

GDP Ranking Changes Till 2075. Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research

Economic Impact of Slower Population Growth:

Daly and Gedminas argue that slowing population growth in the developed world is causing their economic growth to decelerate. At the same time, the economies of the developing countries are driven by their rising populations. Here are four key points made in the report:

1) Slower global potential growth, led by weaker population growth.

2) EM convergence remains intact, led by Asia’s powerhouses. Although real GDP growth has slowed in both developed and emerging economies, in relative terms EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth.

3) A decade of US exceptionalism that is unlikely to be repeated.

4) Less global inequality, more local inequality.

Demographic Dividend:

With rapidly aging populations and declining number of working age people in North America, Europe and East Asia, the demand for workers will increasingly be met by major labor exporting nations like Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and Vietnam. Among these nations, Pakistan is the only major labor exporting country where the working age population is still rising faster than the birth rate.

Over 10 million Pakistanis are currently working/living overseas, according to the Bureau of Emigration. Before the COVID19 pandemic hit in 2020, more than 600,000 Pakistanis left the country to work overseas in 2019. Nearly 700,000 Pakistanis have already migrated in this calendar year as of October, 2022. The average yearly outflow of Pakistani workers to OECD countries (mainly UK and US) and the Middle East was over half a million in the last decade.




World's 7th Largest Consumer Market:

Pakistan's share of the working age population (15-64 years) is growing as the country's birth rate declines, a phenomenon called demographic dividend. With its rising population of this working age group, Pakistan is projected by the World Economic Forum to become the world's 7th largest consumer market by 2030. Nearly 60 million Pakistanis will join the consumer class (consumers spending more than $11 per day) to raise the country's consumer market rank from 15 to 7 by 2030. WEF forecasts the world's top 10 consumer markets of 2030 to be as follows: China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Pakistan, Japan, Egypt and Mexico. Global investors chasing bigger returns will almost certainly shift more of their attention and money to the biggest movers among the top 10 consumer markets, including Pakistan. Already, the year 2021 has been a banner year for investments in Pakistani technology startups.

Record Remittances From Overseas Pakistanis:

Pakistan is already seeing high levels of labor export and record remittances of over $30 billion pouring into the country. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates(UAE) are the top two sources of remittances but the biggest increase (58%) in remittances is seen this year from Pakistanis in the next two sources: the United Kingdom and the United States.

Remittances from the European Union (EU) to Pakistan soared 49.7% in FY 21 and 28.3% in FY22, according to the State Bank of Pakistan. With $2.5 billion remittances in the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, the EU ($2.5 billion) has now surpassed North America ($2.2 billion) to become the third largest source of inflows to Pakistan after the Middle East and the United Kingdom. Remittances from the US have grown 21%, second fastest after the EU (28.3%) in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year.


Pakistan ranks 6th among the top worker remittance recipient countries in the world. India and China rank first and second, followed by Mexico 3rd, the Philippines 4th, Egypt 5th and Pakistan 6th.

Pakistan Demographics

About two million Pakistanis are entering the workforce every year. The share of the working age population in Pakistan is increasing while the birth rate is declining. This phenomenon, known as demographic dividend, is coinciding with declines in working age populations in developed countries. It is creating an opportunity for over half a million Pakistani workers to migrate and work overseas, and send home record remittances.

Related Links:

Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Pakistan is the 7th Largest Source of Migrants in OECD Nations

Pakistani-Americans: Young, Well-educated and Prosperous

Last Decade Saw 16.5 Million Pakistanis Migrate Overseas

Pakistan Remittance Soar 30X Since Year 2000

Pakistan's Growing Human Capital

Two Million Pakistanis Entering Job Market Every Year

Pakistan Projected to Be 7th Largest Consumer Market By 2030

Hindu Population Growth Rate in Pakistan

Do South Asian Slums Offer Hope?

How "Illiterate" Are Pakistan's "Illiterate" Cell Phone Users?

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni: Pakistani Social Network


Yes definitely if our politicians establishment don't do corruption tax frauds yes we can and pay all import taxes and stop using afghan transit for doing tax frauds with customs bigger frauds are been done there
 

mudas777

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Keep on living in the land of living and keep on producing kids. From last 70 years what's our performance have been and what makes you think life will be different in the next 70 years.
 

Titanium100

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Keep on living in the land of living and keep on producing kids. From last 70 years what's our performance have been and what makes you think life will be different in the next 70 years.

It is next 50 years not 70.. By the way you don't need to be genius to understand that majority of the middling economies will increase significiantly... Especially these with higher population it is a timeline natural growth..

They don't have to do anything wrong or right
 

mudas777

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It is next 50 years not 70.. By the way you don't need to be genius to understand that majority of the middling economies will increase significiantly... Especially these with higher population it is a timeline natural growth..

They don't have to do anything wrong or right
If economy is run by our aristo army and Dar, its hard not to go in reverse gear of default. Living in dream is one thing reality is telling us different.
 

RiazHaq

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Yes definitely if our politicians establishment don't do corruption tax frauds yes we can and pay all import taxes and stop using afghan transit for doing tax frauds with customs bigger frauds are been done there

Do you think that leaders in other top 5 economies are angels?

You think Nigeria, forecast to be 5th largest economy by 2075, is less corrupt than Pakistan forecast to be the 6th largest by 2075?

Think again!

Nigeria has a score of 24/100 and ranks 154th among 180 nations ranked for corruption by Transparency International.

Pakistan's score is 28/100 and it ranks 140 on corruption index.

 
Sep 8, 2009
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Not While Janrail are alive, every Janrail gets 62 million to his family , not even 1 million
62 Million per Janrail

Kiya Pagal bana rahe hain logo ko 2075

22 years have not even finished one airport in Gawadar


Fisherman in Gawadar were fishing with wood boats in 1997 and 2022 still fishing with wood boats , poor as hell

But not JANRAIl bajwa's family



1971 failed economically
Failed Asian Tiger
Korea/Japan left us in dust


Can't even write FIR for crime



Pagal bana ker rakha hai logo ko , JANRAIL ne

Getting Big Money themselves
 
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Super Falcon

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Do you think that leaders in other top 5 economies are angels?

You think Nigeria, forecast to be 5th largest economy by 2075, is less corrupt than Pakistan forecast to be the 6th largest by 2075?

Think again!

Nigeria has a score of 24/100 and ranks 154th among 180 nations ranked for corruption by Transparency International.

Pakistan's score is 28/100 and it ranks 140 on corruption index.

I'm not saying they are angels no one can reach that higher with out not commiting crime in today politics but they do everything but they also invest in public far better than our they have 10 thieves we have entire system and inside system million thief's and than thief's don't just stop there they use their influence and they do extra bussiness on name of their organization and don't pay any taxes
 

Baburfromsarmarkand

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Keep on living in the land of living and keep on producing kids. From last 70 years what's our performance have been and what makes you think life will be different in the next 70 years.
Yup, the best predictor of the future is the past. Ppl are acting like 75 years is not a long time - thats longer than the entire history of the USSR.
Japan could be nuked again tomorrow and after a decade they would be back above Pakistan. Some nations just have their own level of equalibrium. We have found ours. We love a large military with multi medalled generals and way woop woop woop!
 

Riz

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Ya Allah hum sab ko 75 sall mazeed zindgi day taky hum pak ko lumber 1 economic supaa pawaa daikh sakain 😆
 

RiazHaq

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In last 65 years (1952-2018), #Pakistan's #GDP growth rate has averaged 4.92%, reaching an all time high of 10.22% in 1954 & a record low of -1.80% in 1952. If Pakistan continues to average 4.92% over the next 53 years until 2075, it will be $4.9 trillion GDP in today's dollars


---------------

$1 in 2021 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $5.27 in 2075, an increase of $4.27 over 54 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 3.13% per year between 2021 and 2075, producing a cumulative price increase of 426.85%. The buying power of $1 in 2021 is predicted to be equivalent to $5.27 in 2075.



----------------------

Multiplying $4.9 trillion in today's dollars by 5.27 gives us $25.8 trillion in 2075 dollars.
 
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Meengla

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Do you think that leaders in other top 5 economies are angels?

You think Nigeria, forecast to be 5th largest economy by 2075, is less corrupt than Pakistan forecast to be the 6th largest by 2075?

Think again!

Nigeria has a score of 24/100 and ranks 154th among 180 nations ranked for corruption by Transparency International.

Pakistan's score is 28/100 and it ranks 140 on corruption index.


You speak too much truth and facts to the fanbois of PTI here!!
About the Goldman Sachs projection about Pakistan, yes, entirely likely. We need to remember that Pakistan AHEAD of India despite all the 'corruption' etc in Pakistan from 1947 into the 1980s. I see no reason why Pakistan regain edge over India with political stability, with the 'demographic dividend', and with the access to the low-population but high resource regions to Pakistan's north and west.
The G.S project is for 50+ years. I suspect at least I will be gone by then--and probably most of us on this forum right now. It is a long time frame. Too long for us to say 'I told you!' in 2075 either way. But I strongly suspect this G.S project will come to fruition by then--and then some!
A time is coming for humanity when the 'population dividend' is going to be come a major resource, if not THE major resource!
 

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