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GOI clueless on growing Chinese Naval Muscle

aimarraul

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No, Indian model is not a tried model. Indian model is based on service and pretty much self-sustaining due to initial 50 years of socialist approach to developing economy.

Chinese model is the approach used by all economies around the world. But until now, there were no countries that was as huge as China that grew on export/model. So, it has become difficult to sustain because Chinese undervaluation of currency along with underconsumption and huge savings is impacting the world.

if you want to profit from this trend, you should concentrate on buying chinese based finance companies. I dont want to tip you way off as I could lose my job, but you will see the companies I am talking if you dig into it a bit. This part of industry very immature.

Also, buying Chinese shares via ADR or Hongkong shares is far more profitable as Chinese mainland based class shares are way overvalued.

The current savings rate is about 40% in China, which is rather ridiculous. At some point in time, people will try to find ways to increase ROI. The under penetrated stock market buying will accelerate.
while the whole world focus on china's export,you guys forgot china also import "90% of india's GDP" every year,with 1.3 people.china will grab every chance in every area,industry,service ,technology.but it take time to narrow the gap and takes more share of the globe cake.you are right,chinese have high saving, it also happened in every east asian countries,even japan and S.K. that's why chinese govt will spend trillions Yuan in health care and old-age insurance for the people living in the countryside,with the right policy,this high growth will last at least 20 years. just let you know ,Shanghai Composite Index is not 6000points anymore ......the stock is back to normal value since last year
 

Rajkumar

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@ Rajeev

avoid these trolls like schinse and greyboy2. they don't have any thing to contribute in topic except few sarcastic comments without any humor value in it like they are competing for clown contest.

by the way good posts.
 

rajeev

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yes, all these are in present continous tense that is now happening..i did see the measures have been taken up by ccp to counter those threats as you mentioned above..those things are even mentioned and reported in their own news...ccp are now aware of it and making macroscopic control over them to be systematically and collectively to be handled as a whole socioeconomic structure shift involving another chains of properties emerging, these relevant results will come out in just next few years more, so we just leave these matters to the capable hands of ccp and wait and see then...nice discussion with you actually...
yes, but the damage done has cannot be reverted.

When any country becomes fully literate, not even developed and have high literacy rate (90%+), the population growth declines. There is no instance in the world where this has reversed.

Examples: US and western Europe (indigenious population is decreasing- growth only sustained via immigration), Kerala (India - under developed country) has 100% literacy rate and has less than 1.5+ children/couple (2.1 is required to maintain the same population), japan, even malayasia (which has high literacy and a muslim country).

So, I think China has lot its chance, though it will be second largest populated country for a long time.
 

rajeev

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while the whole world focus on china's export,you guys forgot china also import "90% of india's GDP" every year,with 1.3 people.china will grab every chance in every area,industry,service ,technology.but it take time to narrow the gap and takes more share of the globe cake.you are right,chinese have high saving, it also happened in every east asian countries,even japan and S.K. that's why chinese govt will spend trillions Yuan in health care and old-age insurance for the people living in the countryside,with the right policy,this high growth will last at least 20 years. just let you know ,Shanghai Composite Index is not 6000points anymore ......the stock is back to normal value since last year
I think you should read the BRIC report thoroughly. Lot of research is done on the matter.

yes, China imports 90% of Indian GDP. That is true, but there are two things you left out:
a) China is deeply integrated into world economy, more so than India.
b) Chinese GDP is 3x Indian GDP

So that is why India has got less impacted so far in all post 1992 global disasters. This economic recession is the worst India suffered losing about 1 million jobs (most have recovered by now). Chinese stats are little harder to gather, but the estimates are loss of 20-30 million job losses because of the current recession.

Unlike other east asian countries, japan, China is a huge country - lot of people. Probably lot more than all of them combined (?).

I think it is crazy to buy Shanghai index. Is it rather volatile? In China, there is a craze to get into IPO like US 2000 time period, so there are lot of companies in there that dont even make money but are listed. The profit is in buying company specific shares.
 

aimarraul

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Jun 27, 2008
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yes, but the damage done has cannot be reverted.

When any country becomes fully literate, not even developed and have high literacy rate (90%+), the population growth declines. There is no instance in the world where this has reversed.

Examples: US and western Europe (indigenious population is decreasing- growth only sustained via immigration), Kerala (India - under developed country) has 100% literacy rate and has less than 1.5+ children/couple (2.1 is required to maintain the same population), japan, even malayasia (which has high literacy and a muslim country).

So, I think China has lot its chance, though it will be second largest populated country for a long time.
you should worried about the water instead of developing if india stick to high fertility policy
 

grey boy 2

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@ Rajeev

avoid these trolls like schinse and greyboy2. they don't have any thing to contribute in topic except few sarcastic comments without any humor value in it like they are competing for clown contest.

by the way good posts.
You just proved to everybody you are nothing but a damn troll only

good at personal attacks.

May i suggest you to shove your B.S. up your's.... for good :smitten:

:pakistan::china:
 

rajeev

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you should worried about the water instead of developing if india stick to high fertility policy
yes, water will be a big issue. I dont where that will land. If the current trend continues and no one does anything about water, India will lose Mumbai. Bangladesh will loose more than 1/2 of their land area i.e. people will more from there to India,etc.

Also Pakistan which is 6 year younger country than India, is growing population and so water will be a big issue. I read a report that the next war could be about water.

But my heart says that humans are intelligent. If we dont kill each other, we can find a way out.
 

praveen

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The problem with Chinese one child policy is that the planners forgot to take the cultural aspects into consideration.

People prefer to have a male child so that he take cares of them in old age .due to that they preferred to have a male for the one child they have .

Effect Highly skewed male\female ratio


Another problem was one-child policy was strictly implemented among the "proliteriat" class hence we have a reduction in work force
 

Yang

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yes, water will be a big issue. I dont where that will land. If the current trend continues and no one does anything about water, India will lose Mumbai. Bangladesh will loose more than 1/2 of their land area i.e. people will more from there to India,etc.

Also Pakistan which is 6 year younger country than India, is growing population and so water will be a big issue. I read a report that the next war could be about water.

But my heart says that humans are intelligent. If we dont kill each other, we can find a way out.
Water is not the only trouble we have,food,water,education,health,jobs:blah:...all these can harm the development of the country
 

Speeder

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India/China consumption models
------------------------------------
Indian GDP is composed of 70% service-based consumer driven and 30% industry-driven, whereas the Chinese GDP is composed of 40% consumer-driven and 60% industry-driven.

Services exports are roughly twice as important for India as for China. Within merchandise trade, both are
dependent on manufactures, with China much more strongly integrated into production networks through trade in parts and components.

Future Economic projection
-----------------------------
The current economic crisis clearly illustrated the importance of self-sustance. US and European countries have saved far too little and in US, clock went so much backwards to hit negative savings rate - inspite of increasing home prices in double digits.

Now, apparently after the recession, US and European consumers have started consuming less and saving more - a lot more in case of US. US currently extrapolated saving's rate is about 8%. This should continue for forseeable future until some normalcy is achieved. Dr. Rosenberg - famed economist and Dr. Roubini - economist at NYU projects that developed countries savings rate will cause the growth rates to be anemic in this recovery. China which is largely dependent on the export growth based model would either has to provide stimulus to its economy to maintain its growth. PIMCO's El-erian's suggests that world has changed and the newer projections would be a world where the developed countries will have higher unemployment rates (thereby lower consumption rates). India will also be impacted but since its growth is mostly internal driven, impact on it will lower (as 30% is the only industry base - of which a small percentage is used for exports).

China it is expected has a potential to be a star if it decides to provides some form of social security and better medical care to its people.

There is a joke in India regarding its own growth. "India grows when the government sleeps." Unless the government of India steps up on gas for infrastructure it will finds manufacturing only registering lower growth than its potential.

Primary differences between India and China in Industries
------------------------------------------------------------
Every economy in its initial stages are prone to more imitation. As the industry matures, more players are formed and innovations are made which leaps way forward.

Almost all major companies in China are state-owned/state-controlled/major share holder. There are only few exceptions like Lenovo, Ping Ann, BYD, . While many others are branches of foreign companies that use China as a base for making products rather than implementing design in China.

Whereas India except few (and mostly all) major profit-generating companies are owned privately or held publicly.

India does not compete with the hardcore Chinese manufacturing firms head on because it operates one of the most efficient and labor-rich industries. A case in point - Mukund Steel, an Indian firm develops only high-grade steel that meets the European standards, thereby enabling it to generate huge profit margins.

Indian movie arena is one of largest producers of movies of the world. There are more movies made in India, than the rest of the world combined. It is a self-driven industry in India.

Ofcourse, the popularly known Indian software giants like TCS, Infosys and Wipro are wholly home grown.

Innovation in automobile industry is not very known. India's Tata Nano had huge press becoming cheapest car. This car was designed and innovated completely in India. There is also Mahindra & Mahindra which are trying to make inroads in US competing with John Deere.

There are lot more examples. I think I left out Reliance Industries -- too much on this company.

Doubts about Chinese official growth numbers
-------------------------------------------------
In the midst of the economic recession, in an economy that is entirely driven by exports and when consumption had been severly in all developed nations, Chinese government suggested it would register a 8% growth rate about six months in advance. After 6 months, it noted not 7.9% growth nor 8.1% growth, apparently as the clock work. This happened in the middle of 2008. At this time, there was a huge discontent among most competent economist about the truthfulness of the government issued growth rates.

There were also clearly reports on the trustfulness of Chinese GDP numbers in 2005 when the electric consumption has declined three years in a row, but Chinese export grew in double digits all the subsequent years.

If you want more details, I can provide more on this. For now, refer to #3 and #4.

Chinese FDI numbers- Why are they always so high?

Chinese top leadership has maintained a policy of higher growth and so each of the provinces are expected to perform and help grow faster. This is also incentivized by the leadership. This causes room for people to increase the numbers to get better privileges and benefits to quote higher numbers. There was also a report that had widely circulated on this.

Chinese calculation of FDI includes the amount of the money that could be reinvested from outside even by Chinese citizens and many Chinese living in mainland China do so as the FDI invested money is provided with special incentives and better taxation schemes.

How come China still has 2 trillion dollars in US bonds if the growth didnot happen?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
No one disputes whether Chinese growth didnot happen. The only thing people are talking of very high double digits that according to some famed economists cannot happen for a large country like China. The actual growth they predict are close to 7% rather than 9-11% quoted.

There is a wide held belief in economics community that China which had pegged its currency during the currency crisis in 90's is severly stretching the world economics. There is a wide held belief as well that the currency is way undervalued as much as 40% according to some reports. A free floating currency suggestion is up in the works.

The risk to Chinese holding 2 trillion dollars is strategically far too dangerous to US. The current crisis which is adding severe deflation to US currency because of the unwinding of the leverage is also causing the crisis to hit US very badly. Treasury had implemented minor plans to lower the value by increasing the supply of money to sustain and maintain the US economy. US debt is about 14 trillion and is growing. The only viable option which is easiest in a democracy is to decrease the value of the currency. China holds 2 trillion in US dollars, followed by Japan and Europe. This would help US to get out currency crisis issue.

How democracy is better?
-----------------------------
Yes, Having a one-party system has its advantages, like moving on things very fast. But that does not evade corruption. At some point in time, when there is a weakness in the leadership, people will demand the ability to change the ruling class and if there is no alternative in case of one-party system. This can cause crisis within.

So over long periods of time, democracy works. Because people feel that they can change the leaders that rule the country and a sense of ownership.

China as it stands now has very restricted media. Every one knows that it is better not to speak against the government else one could get in trouble.

So over the short run, democracy hinders growth but over the long term, it is a self-sustaining engine. Remember no civil wars/clashes provides better environment for growth. It is only because of continous wars in Indian and Chinese subcontinent which destroyed the country's per capita w.r.t. to the world during 1500-1950.

Upcoming population crisis in China.
--------------------------------------
China's Moa of one-child has reduced the population and brought to complete stand still. China is going to have a rapdily aging population very soon. Rather than normal curve, Chinese population is expected to grow old before they become rich, though the Chinese GDP will be the largest in the world.

Can India do China
--------------------
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/BRICs-Chapter19.pdf

I am tired of typing and so I am cutting it short, sorry guys.


References:
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1. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/...916-1206974192224/Chapter3DancingWith2006.pdf
2. Historical and future expectation for India - http://www.usindiafriendship.net/viewpoints1/Indias_Rising_Growth_Potential.pdf (Goldman Sachs report)
3. http://www.pitt.edu/~tgrawski/papers2001/caveat.web.pdf
4. chinagdpwithROW.jpg (image)


Just get back to see this "economist" troll is still here satuating the thread with his copy&paste here and there, to make believe that he knows something. :no:

Give you guys an example: I know nothing about tech sophistication of F-22A raptor. If I copy and paste some details of it, it seems that I am an expert on that to any untrained eyes. However, in front of a F-22 engineer, he'll know immediately that I am just an amatuer with only 1 or 2 simple exchange on key areas.

Similarly, this guy tried hard to use paste some econimics jargons, some piecemeals from various sources with his illiterate rant and trash talk hidding in between, to make sure he looks like someone knows sth on economics. By just glancing at his arguments, I quickly realises what level he is at. Let me put in this way: my little cousin could have written better on economics matters and he is only at third year of university.

I don't want to waste my time too much on this "economist" troll who spent hours on copy and pasting. Right, I show you an example to quickly debunk this faker during my coffee break now:


e.g. On China/India GDP breakout ratio: Why as a less developed country, India got such a high ratio on service sector? - which is outside economics norms comparing with its peers --- one-of-its-kind in the world? That relates to another deeper question: why China'e service sector / GDP ratio is considerablely smaller depite of her relatively much larger volumn and higher development stage, which logically should generate larger ratio?

A decent third year university stud can answer above questions pretty good with my guidence. And this "economist" was just scatching the surface of the issue, because he pasted some info from here and there, while having no clue himself.


Most of "his remark" was not his indeed , but from various sources - one can easily see. What he did was to paste them and add one or two his own sentences in the conclusions.


On growth projection: with considerablely smaller domestic market and troubled export market in light of recession, where India's growth came from? e.g. China's growth is helped by over $ 580 billion stimulus package spending ; India's one is only tiny $ 8 billion. And its govt bond is probably only one notch away from becoming junk bonds. Organic growth? Domestic spending? :lol: Give me a break. If China's growth were fake somehow, India's growth figure would have been the Mother of all fakes.


On India industries: What industrial base? It is a joke! A media hype! The only examples he can raise are:

1. a steel company ( China is the biggest steel producer and consumer in the world);

2. $1000 Tata Nano car :lol: ( that junk Nano is to be made yet. Also mind you the world is moving towards 21 century full electric techologies with China's BYD being the world leader! Who gives a damn about some early-20th century- level $1000 cheap crap which feeds on fossile fuel? )

3. several software companies who make its names by packaging Western sofware and writing basic codes as cheap oursource partners of the US. ( what's that? Chinese Huawei alone probably own more IP rights than all of them adding together!)

4. And Bollywood "worldwide" movies, of course :lol:( I do hope you have a potential market in Sub-Sahara Africa! To the rest of the world? No thinks, But NO. Oke?)

Now wanna talk about India's $10 computer? :lol:


En fin,

without industrialisation, India's growth is unsustainble apart from dubious since no country in world history has taken its joker "growth model" (to raise peasant directtly from illiteracy to advance service sector skipping entire manufacturing base) ever before, and likely never after;

without building industrail bases, there will be no industrialisation; without decent infrastructure there will be no decent industrail bases;

And with no deep pocket (with India's limited forex reserves and capital market funding potential), India is in no position to build decent infrastructure, let alone other critical factors such as mass education level, energy procurement, technology tranfer. etc. etc. for the industrial base.


...

I won't even bother to go on for the rest of your copy/paste remarks which have filled 2 pages of the thread. Enjoy them with your more illiterate country mates.

Case closed, Junior!
 

shchinese

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the most interesting thing is indians alway claim they have a service based economy. if you look at the entire world, you will see all advanced economies build up their industry first then move to the service sector.

:smokin: anyway, indians are naive people, they should be allowed to make such mistakes. at the end of the day, they are the person who will pay the bill and eat the crap generated by their "service" based economy.

seriously, when you even can't build a 120mm gun used on your MBT, how you are going to tell the world that you are a big regional power?
 

shchinese

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indians are in general lazy, industrialization means hard working for an entire generation, but that is what they will never agree to work on as they are lazy.

look at the following major industrial products, is there anything that can be built in india?

general purpose CPU
DSP chips
jet engine
latest LCD panel
.....

nothing.
 

duhastmish

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Jan 20, 2009
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:Mod Edit:


btw - coming back to topic- i dont think GOI i s clueless on china - we are takign some steps against china ,

more over - we cant really go the china way - because we dont have resource or neither have the need. our aim to defend ourselves from china if need arises and we must keep it that way.
 
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