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Faced with China, India must scale up its relationships with friends

Dalit

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‘Faced with China, India must scale up its relationships with friends’



The latest map row raised by Islamabad apart, the China-Pakistan alliance is, indeed, becoming a new diplomatic challenge for New Delhi. India, which has shown a tough resolve at the LAC against China, must align strongly with countries like the United States, Japan and the ASEAN nations to neutralise Chinese dominance in the region. Also India must keep a watch on Russia, which is now starting to play the “Great Game”, with the United States’ shrinking role in South Asia after its Afghanistan exit, says Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert and Deputy Director of Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington DC. Excerpts:

Q: China and Pakistan have started working in the open against India? What is the message for New Delhi in this?

A: One of the most immediate manifestations we can expect to see is Pakistan and China expediting plans to develop China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects in disputed areas claimed by India. Already, in recent weeks, there have been announcements of new CPEC investments in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The idea here is to push back against recent messaging in New Delhi about one day taking back these contested areas controlled by Pakistan, but also to telegraph more broadly that Islamabad and Beijing are actively partnering to undermine New Delhi in India’s broader backyard.

Q: How deep is China’s dependence on Pakistan and vice-versa when it comes to countering India’s growing stature and influence in the new global dynamics?

A: The China-Pakistan relationship has always been rather unequal, with Islamabad heavily dependent on Beijing’s largesse—which is not always as forthcoming as Pakistan would like. Pakistan’s dependence on China has only grown in recent months, given an economic crisis that makes Beijing’s financial assistance all the more important and given a period of geopolitical flux as the Kashmir issue has caused problems for some of Pakistan’s key partnerships, most specifically with the Saudis.

Q: Is a strong Pakistan-China alliance more because of growing India-US strong relationship? To what extent do the two countries feel threatened?

A: The Pakistan-China alliance is above all about a shared concern about India, but a growing US-India relationship certainly brings them closer together—and in fact this may have been one of the motivations for China’s provocations in Ladakh in recent months. There are other factors bringing the two closer together—India’s Article 370 repeal, the sense of both countries that they are under siege in a world that is conspiring against them, and the strategic imperative for both countries of CPEC.

Q: What more China can do with Pakistan in defence and security areas to disturb India?

A: I think the main ways that the two can inflict damage is through economics and diplomacy. China and Pakistan can build more infrastructure projects in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir to push back against India’s claims. And they can exploit India’s troubles in its neighborhood by trying to ramp up relations with countries at odds with New Delhi. We’re already seeing this happen with Bangladesh, and Nepal may be next.

Q: Indo-Pacific and the South China Sea are already battle ready. The LAC is still simmering. Your thoughts?

A: Asia is one big powder keg right now. Longstanding flashpoints, such as the South China Sea and Line of Control, are heating up, while new flashpoints, such as the LAC, are coming to the fore. These growing volatilities will amplify, for the United States, the importance of implementing its Indo-Pacific policy to ensure it has significant influence in the region and close ties with its traditional friends. Though in all reality, I doubt we’ll see much forward movement on the Indo-Pacific policy from the Trump administration as it heads into the final intense stretch before the November election.

Q: Is Asia on the boil? What is for India to do in current scenario?

A: Asia is certainly on the boil. At such a volatile moment, it’s important for New Delhi to scale up its relationships with existing friends—especially America and Japan—while doing what it can to strengthen cooperation with newer friends like Vietnam. For India, the key is to build trust and cooperation with countries of the Indo-Pacific that, much like New Delhi, worry about China’s growing power—and this would be most countries that fit into this category. Still, given the extent of China’s influence and footprint in the region, it won’t be easy for India to overcome the dragon’s clout.

Q: Does the US still have more to contain Pakistan to help India?

A: India and the US have both formally and publicly opposed BRI, so any additional progress with CPEC will be sure not to go down well. But Washington isn’t about to push back too hard against Islamabad, given the important role it sees Pakistan playing in Afghanistan as formal peace talks approach. In other words, the US doesn’t want to rock the boat right now, at such a delicate moment for its relationship with Pakistan.

Q: How will Russia play in this entire Great Game?

A: Moscow is a very big part of this story. It remains a key security partner for India, on the one hand. But on the other hand, the Russians have been ramping up their relations with Islamabad—mainly through their cooperation on the Afghan peace process, but there is also potential for cooperation on energy issues. It’s quite significant that one of India’s oldest partners is now reaching out to New Delhi’s bitter enemy. For Russia, its broader game in the region is all about building influence to complement the efforts of its Chinese friend, and taking advantage of a receding US role in South Asia (thanks to its imminent withdrawal from Afghanistan) and an uncertain US role in East Asia. Moscow senses an opportunity in Washington’s unsettled and unclear role in Asia, and it’s determined to seize it.

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/world/faced-china-india-must-scale-relationships-friends

Let's forget the source for a moment. Let's concentrate on the questions. Specifically the answers from a self proclaimed South Asia expert who often claims to be a well-wisher of Pakistan.

What stands out in this Q&A session is the fact that a US deep state asset is openly admitting that the US is eventually going to go hard against Pakistan in the future. It is also VERY clear that CPEC is yet another point of contention for both Hindustan and its ally the US.

When the Afghan peace deal is signed and the US is again about to leave the region, what will the future be of Pak US relations? Is it expected that the US is going to get tough against Pakistan? Are we going to see a similar dumping as we saw after the Cold War? How much time can Pakistan buy and how can it prepare itself against the worst case scenario? FATF blacklisting and economic sanctions are the most immediate sticks which the US can use to hurt Pakistan.
 
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arjunk

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1. Settle Afghanistan down. Our second longest border will be under our control and terrorism will be nearly 0 since Taliban have a free hand after the USA leaves.
2. Jointly develop Afghanistan with Chinese help to maintain influence and prevent backstabbing
3. We are already shifting towards Iran
4. Border fencing will be complete, with monitoring systems and hopefully UAVs are employed

With this, we have secured our western border for the first time in decades. Now,

1. Massive crackdown on BLA/SRA and fake liberals
2. CPEC completed ASAP; helps development, once positive effects are seen BLA etc have no excuse of Chinese exploitation.
3. Turn to Chinese in case of financial pressure.
4. JF-17 Block III/J-10 should be inducted by now.
5. Al-Khalid-2 should be ready
6. We should've made use of the Brahmos documents we stole by now as well
7. Some of the ships being purchased/built are ready now. Navy should be able to hold itself now.

Now our internal security situation should be massively improved due to development, secure western border, crackdown on terrorists. Time to end the eastern threat once and for all:
1. Train proxies
2. Use Superpower friend's financial assistance if needed
3. ???
4. Profit as artificial state of India collapses on its hundreds of faultlines

Don't even need to use our own army. If we do, even worse for India.

The US realistically can't do shit. If Pakistan withdraws military support from SA and UAE they're fucked so they will be kept in check with that. We can always use proxies on them too.
 

EpiiC

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‘Faced with China, India must scale up its relationships with friends’


What stands out in this Q&A session is the fact that a US deep state asset is openly admitting that the US is eventually going to go hard against Pakistan in the future. It is also VERY clear that CPEC is yet another point of contention for both Hindustan and its ally the US.

When the Afghan peace deal is signed and the US is again about to leave the region, what will the future be of Pak US relations? Is it expected that the US is going to get tough against Pakistan? Are we going to see a similar dumping as we saw after the Cold War? How much time can Pakistan buy and how can it prepare itself against the worst case scenario? FATF blacklisting and economic sanctions are the most immediate sticks which the US can use to hurt Pakistan.
Pakistan should develop its own human capital, 60% literacy rate is appalling, Bangladesh and India are at 75%. Learn from Iran on how they dealt with sanctions. Continue CPEC at full speed. DEVELOP HUMAN CAPITAL and ECONOMY.
 

Arsalan 345

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United States is not putting more pressure on pakistan because of Afghanistan but it's clear that nobody in United States care about pakistan anymore. What they want is strong India who can fight a war against china and who can also destroy pakistan. American Indian relations are now more established. Slowly but gradually,they are isolating pakistan.this Arab policy shift towards israel is just a beginning. India is now a big player,thanks to her master United States. Arabs can no longer listen to Pakistan. Consider Arabs to be hostile towards pakistan in the upcoming years. Basically total isolation with possibly turkey and China the only friends of pakistan. It is also a big failure of Pak foreign policy.
 

CrazyZ

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Micheal Kugelman was on TV saying that Pakistan had no ability to retaliate against India after Balakot.........at the same time the PAF was dropping bombs on Indian military bases. :lol: He also says Afghanistan is a neighbor of India....regional experts should be familiar with the regional map. He is a lobbyist pretending to be a regional expert.
 
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Mugen

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Pakistan should develop its own human capital, 60% literacy rate is appalling, Bangladesh and India are at 75%. Learn from Iran on how they dealt with sanctions. Continue CPEC at full speed. DEVELOP HUMAN CAPITAL and ECONOMY.
This will fix so many of our problems. It is the single most important aspect of country we should be focusing on improving. It will result in fundamental changes that will have a far reaching domino effect in all other sectors of our country.
 

jupiter2007

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Pakistan should develop its own human capital, 60% literacy rate is appalling, Bangladesh and India are at 75%. Learn from Iran on how they dealt with sanctions. Continue CPEC at full speed. DEVELOP HUMAN CAPITAL and ECONOMY.
Massive investment is need in education. Pakistan must provide free technical/vocational training to masses to convert unskilled workers in to skill workers. There are some individuals are already doing that it for free in Karachi.
 
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EpiiC

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Massive investment is need in education. Pakistan must provide free technical/vocational training to masses to convert unskilled workers in to skill workers. There are so individuals are already doing that it for free in Karachi.
Last 10 years which has been a lost decade for Pakistan education wise due to stagnant illiteracy rate. Bro Bangladesh trailed Pak by 8% in 2005 literacy rate, today that are ahead by 15%, WTH! WTH AGAIN! This is just horrible to say the least. Not only has both BD and India overtaken Pakistan NOMINAL GDP and GDP Per Capita but also literacy rate. Pakistan has the most madrassas in the world which is also disturbing cos as long as kids are educated in madarsas, they will not be able to understand the logical reasoning given by anybody. They lack the sense of reasoning. They are made blind followers by the madarsas by closing the doors for reasoning. They are perfectly developed as a herd. I want Pakistan to send 100,000+ students to USA universities.... 100,000+ to European universities, when they come back with great education they can become teachers in Pak and develop the economy. So yh massive spending on education is needed urgently. Pakistan literacy rate is 58%. BD is at 74%, we are being outdone and outperformed, when it comes to development of human capital.
 

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