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The SC

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IED detectors in Sinai
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Gomig-21

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Anyhows, the dam is of no concern:police:.

So Wedi, this is the same song and dance you folks have been saying to us for the last 5 years and this last round at trying to solve this situation diplomatically has just failed a couple of days ago because Ethiopia refuses to share the results of the impact study done by the French consulting firms, Artelia and BRL. Why is your country refusing to share the results of the study? Is it worried that it does indeed show that there will be quite the impact to downstream countries, especially Egypt? Why are you hiding it from us? Care to explain that?

We even suggested that the IMF arbitrate the deadlocked negotiations as an impartial mediator and Ethiopia refused even that, probably because they would insist on looking at the study. So now we know that Ethiopia -- and now even Sudan -- have been stalling the entire time, instead of finding a common ground solution.

18 times we've met with you and tried to reach a solution and you keep giving us the same song and dance as you just did in your quote.

This is very troubling, especially now that Sudan is jumping into the fray with its cockiness. Now you know why we can't just take your word for it. Maybe @EgyptianAmerican was right when he said he wanted to see that thing blown to smithereens.
 

Harpcore_lover

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So Wedi, this is the same song and dance you folks have been saying to us for the last 5 years and this last round at trying to solve this situation diplomatically has just failed a couple of days ago because Ethiopia refuses to share the results of the impact study done by the French consulting firms, Artelia and BRL. Why is your country refusing to share the results of the study? Is it worried that it does indeed show that there will be quite the impact to downstream countries, especially Egypt? Why are you hiding it from us? Care to explain that?

We even suggested that the IMF arbitrate the deadlocked negotiations as an impartial mediator and Ethiopia refused even that, probably because they would insist on looking at the study. So now we know that Ethiopia -- and now even Sudan -- have been stalling the entire time, instead of finding a common ground solution.

18 times we've met with you and tried to reach a solution and you keep giving us the same song and dance as you just did in your quote.

This is very troubling, especially now that Sudan is jumping into the fray with its cockiness. Now you know why we can't just take your word for it. Maybe @EgyptianAmerican was right when he said he wanted to see that thing blown to smithereens.
We can't blow it to smithereens unless if its gonna clean and without much attention from media outlets, I personally suggest when some protests happen in the country we send a couple of our special ops folks, we blow up the Fucking thing and leave.
 

Gomig-21

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We can't blow it to smithereens unless if its gonna clean and without much attention from media outlets, I personally suggest when some protests happen in the country we send a couple of our special ops folks, we blow up the Fucking thing and leave.

They'd have to carry a lot of heavy duty explosives with them to cause enough damage to that thing. I'm not sure that's possible. If they decide to smack it, they need to put a severe hurt on it to the point where they'd be discouraged from rebuilding it. A couple of holes or a busted section will only make matters worst IMO.

If it was an old, steel bridge or a dam that was under tremendous pressure and they can get to that pressure point and compromise it so the rest will follow, that would work. But this thing looks really solid and it's not yet filled up so it would need to be blasted out with 20 SCALPs followed by 40 GBU-12s and then finished off with 60, 500 kg HAMMERS at the least. If they can drop more on it then the better. If they're gonna do it, they need to do it soon. Enough is enough of this stalling and pussy-footing which is so obvious why they're doing that.

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Harpcore_lover

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They'd have to carry a lot of heavy duty explosives with them to cause enough damage to that thing. I'm not sure that's possible. If they decide to smack it, they need to put a severe hurt on it to the point where they'd be discouraged from rebuilding it. A couple of holes or a busted section will only make matters worst IMO.

If it was an old, steel bridge or a dam that was under tremendous pressure and they can get to that pressure point and compromise it so the rest will follow, that would work. But this thing looks really solid and it's not yet filled up so it would need to be blasted out with 20 SCALPs followed by 40 GBU-12s and then finished off with 60, 500 kg HAMMERS at the least. If they can drop more on it then the better. If they're gonna do it, they need to do it soon. Enough is enough of this stalling and pussy-footing which is so obvious why they're doing that.

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I say we go for it, hit the Fucking place blow it up, would rather see one dam out of business then my country folks dying.
We will have to be careful regarding the westsW response, maybe porvoke ethiopians to go into a fight with egypt, or provoke Sudan to do so.
We need both of em out of business, I don't care how many of both of them we will have to kill but it has to be done
 

Mhmoud

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It looks real to me..And I am not sure it is a bad idea to get close to some target gaining a few hundred kilometers while hiding from long range radars..and then splitting without jeopardizing the civilian aircraft..
I see that international law specifically prohibits the use of civilian airliners and other civilian things to aid one's military objectives, as it will mean that any and every civilian airliner within range of the enemy can and will be shot down. They would have reasonable suspicion and would be given the clear green light by the international community. So the consequences of such an exercise would be frankly disastrous.
 

The SC

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I see that international law specifically prohibits the use of civilian airliners and other civilian things to aid one's military objectives, as it will mean that any and every civilian airliner within range of the enemy can and will be shot down. They would have reasonable suspicion and would be given the clear green light by the international community. So the consequences of such an exercise would be frankly disastrous.
I agree.. but in time of war anything goes..besides civilian airliners have been downed before for no reason whatsoever.. A Libyan airliner over Sinai, an Iranian one over the Gulf and a Malaysian one or two.. one over Ukraine and one in the pacific..

So in case of war Egyptian Mirage can hide under El Al with destination Tel Aviv ..hit their targets, accomplish their mission and come back under any El AL coming out of Usrael till they reach a safe distance and then split and return to their base..:lol::tongue::lol:
 
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Mhmoud

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They'd have to carry a lot of heavy duty explosives with them to cause enough damage to that thing. I'm not sure that's possible. If they decide to smack it, they need to put a severe hurt on it to the point where they'd be discouraged from rebuilding it. A couple of holes or a busted section will only make matters worst IMO.

If it was an old, steel bridge or a dam that was under tremendous pressure and they can get to that pressure point and compromise it so the rest will follow, that would work. But this thing looks really solid and it's not yet filled up so it would need to be blasted out with 20 SCALPs followed by 40 GBU-12s and then finished off with 60, 500 kg HAMMERS at the least. If they can drop more on it then the better. If they're gonna do it, they need to do it soon. Enough is enough of this stalling and pussy-footing which is so obvious why they're doing that.

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I'd wonder why it would take 120 missiles and bombs to cause damage to the GRED. TBH, it seems a bit much. Couldn't it hit it with some GBU-12s, then drop a few GBU-89s so that it can't be fixed soon, and then come back the next day to finish the dam off? Another way is to damage the dam and then the other smaller diverter dams so that the water could wash away all the equipment? Or maybe use some C-130s and other transports to carpet-bomb it after SEAD missions? Dropping 120 guided missiles and bombs would be a bit expensive, no?
 

Gomig-21

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I'd wonder why it would take 120 missiles and bombs to cause damage to the GRED. TBH, it seems a bit much. Couldn't it hit it with some GBU-12s, then drop a few GBU-89s so that it can't be fixed soon, and then come back the next day to finish the dam off? Another way is to damage the dam and then the other smaller diverter dams so that the water could wash away all the equipment? Or maybe use some C-130s and other transports to carpet-bomb it after SEAD missions? Dropping 120 guided missiles and bombs would be a bit expensive, no?

From the available pics so far, that dam is massive. Not only in length, but in girth. Damaging it wouldn't be worth it IMO since there will be huge repercussions to Egypt if it does indeed strike it. If they commit to attacking it, then they need to completely destroy it otherwise, it certainly won't be worth it. Egypt will face serious condemnation for provoking an act of war like that and we don't get the luxurious support that Israel would/does, even though this can easily be sold as an existential threat, which it is. Egypt will face a lot of grief from the international community and especially the US, so it has to be done right and maybe even overdone.

I also think it would need to be done in 2, quick, successive strikes. Hit it the first time and then follow through shortly after to finish it off, not wait for the 2nd day. Can't give the any time to regroup or attempt to set up a defensive operation and an extra day would allow them that.

There's also the defensive posture that needs to be taken after the strike. So once it's completed and aircraft returned, the focus then needs to be entirely on securing the southern border and the Red Sea coast. They'll need to be on high alert (especially Aswan). Doing that while still on the offensive complicates things a bit. Personally, I think 2 waves of attack in succession would be the best way.

As far as munitions, if the recent Syrian strike by the US and allies was any indication, then there will be a need for A LOT of weapons dropped on that dam to damage it enough that it is considered destroyed. The research center in Damascus supposedly took 75 Tomahawks and there were still a couple of sections of the building standing. We also didn't get a good sense of what the damage result was of the 7 SCALPs that the French launched from their Mirage 2000's. Factor all that into the size of the GERD, I think it will take a large amount of munitions to really impact it enough. This is assuming we already have 30 SCALPs from the first Rafale delivery (as per the Sipri report) but we don't even know if there's any truth to that. If we don't, then they might have to go with the MiG-35s and use a large bundle of the KH-38. That would complicate things a little bit since we're not sure what the status is of the MiGs in the EAF at the moment (if they're ready to carry out such a mission), and also what the data link/coms situation is and if it's worked out between those jets and the Rafales/F-16s. It's definitely an interesting scenario, but also a bit worrisome.
 

wedi

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So Wedi, this is the same song and dance you folks have been saying to us for the last 5 years and this last round at trying to solve this situation diplomatically has just failed a couple of days ago because Ethiopia refuses to share the results of the impact study done by the French consulting firms, Artelia and BRL. Why is your country refusing to share the results of the study? Is it worried that it does indeed show that there will be quite the impact to downstream countries, especially Egypt? Why are you hiding it from us? Care to explain that?

We even suggested that the IMF arbitrate the deadlocked negotiations as an impartial mediator and Ethiopia refused even that, probably because they would insist on looking at the study. So now we know that Ethiopia -- and now even Sudan -- have been stalling the entire time, instead of finding a common ground solution.

18 times we've met with you and tried to reach a solution and you keep giving us the same song and dance as you just did in your quote.

This is very troubling, especially now that Sudan is jumping into the fray with its cockiness. Now you know why we can't just take your word for it. Maybe @EgyptianAmerican was right when he said he wanted to see that thing blown to smithereens.

You'll have to take our word for it:cheers:, not much I can do, I am not the PM.

I'm sure if this was the other way around you wouldn't care one tiny bit. EgyptianAmerican was crazy, the way he responded made it seem he wanted the thing to be blown up regardless whether it does damage to Egypt or not. This other user above seems to be obsessed with the idea of blowing it up too, is that the solution to everything?:cuckoo:

Sorry but the Nile doesn't just belong to you, over 80% of the waters come from us, we are not going to abide by some outdated treaty that didn't even concern us.

The way Egypt uses the Nile too is not exactly very helpful. You could empty the Aswan high dam while the GERD is filling and not deal with water shortages, no evaporation in your lake and restore farming land. Compensate lost electricity with solar or wind energy. But the only thing on peoples mind is blowing a dam up, lol.

As a Sudanese user on a different forum said in response to Egyptian rice farmers moaning about the ban, 'who farms rice in a desert, they need to behave like the desert nation they are':coffee:.

You are ignoring all the benefits of it, harming Egypt is the last thing on our mind.

We can't blow it to smithereens unless if its gonna clean and without much attention from media outlets, I personally suggest when some protests happen in the country we send a couple of our special ops folks, we blow up the Fucking thing and leave.

Lol.
 

The SC

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You'll have to take our word for it:cheers:, not much I can do, I am not the PM.

I'm sure if this was the other way around you wouldn't care one tiny bit. EgyptianAmerican was crazy, the way he responded made it seem he wanted the thing to be blown up regardless whether it does damage to Egypt or not. This other user above seems to be obsessed with the idea of blowing it up too, is that the solution to everything?:cuckoo:

Sorry but the Nile doesn't just belong to you, over 80% of the waters come from us, we are not going to abide by some outdated treaty that didn't even concern us.

The way Egypt uses the Nile too is not exactly very helpful. You could empty the Aswan high dam while the GERD is filling and not deal with water shortages, no evaporation in your lake and restore farming land. Compensate lost electricity with solar or wind energy. But the only thing on peoples mind is blowing a dam up, lol.

As a Sudanese user on a different forum said in response to Egyptian rice farmers moaning about the ban, 'who farms rice in a desert, they need to behave like the desert nation they are':coffee:.

You are ignoring all the benefits of it, harming Egypt is the last thing on our mind.



Lol.

Air too!?

No war but you can not claim that the Nile water belong to you as some of you guys already said why the GCC don't share their Oil resources.. as dumb a claim as that! There are international conventions covering river waters all over the world.. Ethiopia should abide by them..it is as simple as that..
 
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wedi

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Air too!?

No war but you can not claim that the Nile water belong to you as some of you guys already said why the GCC don't share their Oil resources.. as dumb a claim as that! There are international conventions covering river waters all over the world.. Ethiopia should abide by them..it is as simple as that..

I said it doesn't just belong to Egypt, I didn't say the Nile water belongs to us, but most the waters come from rivers in our country...

Yes there are conventions covering river waters but there's also that outdated stupid colonial agreement we were not part of, which we are not going to abide by.
 

The SC

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I said it doesn't just belong to Egypt, I didn't say the Nile water belongs to us, but most the waters come from rivers in our country...

Yes there are conventions covering river waters but there's also that outdated stupid colonial agreement we were not part of, which we are not going to abide by.
What about the scientific studies done by the French expert firm? Why doesn't Ethiopia want to address them?
The waters come mostly from open lakes.. if there was no Mediterranean outflow..Ethiopia would have been a big lake too..It nature my friend..you can not claim rivers flowing through half of a continent as yours or belong to your country.. and you can not change or manipulate them at the expense and survival of others who have the same rivers flows otherwise you'll be violating the basic nature's and conventions and laws governing river flows on the planet..and that is nothing less than playing with fire..
 

wedi

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What about the scientific studies done by the French expert firm? Why doesn't Ethiopia want to address them?
The waters come mostly from open lakes.. if there was no Mediterranean outflow..Ethiopia would have been a big lake too..It nature my friend..you can not claim rivers flowing through half of a continent as yours or belong to your country.. and you can not change or manipulate them at the expense and survival of others who have the same rivers flows otherwise you'll be violating the basic nature's and conventions and laws governing river flows on the planet..and that is nothing less than playing with fire..

The PM of Ethiopia will know the answer to that question not me :lol:.
---
And I'll say it again, I didn't say the Nile belongs to Ethiopia:undecided:... but most of the Nile's water in Egypt is from Ethiopian land.

This is a project started to benefit us and surrounding countries, not to harm Egypt in any way..
 

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