• Monday, August 26, 2019

Economist: USA's War on Terror cost Pakistan $252bn while received aid was $33bn

Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by Reddington, Apr 3, 2019.

  1. Reddington

    Reddington FULL MEMBER

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    Economist estimates Washington's war against terror cost Pakistan $252bn

    By Shahbaz Rana
    Published: April 3, 2019
    ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy has sustained a colossal loss of $252 billion owing to the US-led war against terrorism which is nearly eight times more than the financial assistance given by Washington to Islamabad.

    The $252 billion price has been estimated by economist Dr Hafiz Pasha in his book titled ‘Growth and Inequality –Agenda for Reforms’, which was rolled out on Tuesday in the presence of three cabinet ministers including Finance Minister Asad Umar.

    The cost is twice the amount that the Ministry of Finance had earlier published in Economic Survey of Pakistan. The $252 billion loss is equal to 93 per cent of the total size of the country’s economy.

    “The estimated total cost of terrorism to the economy of Pakistan up to 2017-18 is $251.8 billion”, reads the book, sponsored by German Institute Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES).

    The book noted that the aggregate indirect cost due to war against terrorism was $179.1 billion, while the direct cost was $72.7 billion.

    In comparison to this, the total external assistance received from Washington after Pakistan joined the war in Afghanistan is estimated at $33 billion.

    The bulk of $33 billion, over two-thirds, has been security assistance, mostly in the form of reimbursement from the Coalition Support Fund.

    The $252 billion cost is almost eight times the assistance received from the Washington.

    The book also underlines that the finance ministry’s methodology to work out the cost of war against terrorism is “defective”.

    The finance ministry had estimated nearly $127 billion total cost to economy.

    The author of the book noted that the largest cost item is the reduction in tax collection.

    In actuality, the cost is the reduction in the overall tax base and not just in revenues.

    The book also underlines that over 70,000 people have been killed in Pakistan due to war against terrorism.

    It is estimated that over 35 per cent are civilians with 11 per cent being security personnel.

    The remainders, 54 per cent, are terrorists. The highest incidence of acts of terrorism had been in erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas, followed by Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

    There was a large-scale influx of three million refugees into Pakistan after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

    From 2002 onwards the frequency of suicide attacks and bombing increased rapidly, reaching a peak of 76 in 2008 and receded gradually thereafter to 43 in 2013.

    Direct Cost

    Pasha estimates the direct cost on account of higher expenditure on security, both public and private, damage to infrastructure and property and other costs.

    Pakistan’s participation in the war in Afghanistan required an increase in budget allocations for security by the federal government.

    Prior to 9/11, there had been modest growth annually in real defense expenditure of less than one per cent.

    Thereafter, the growth rate rose to 1.3 per cent initially, then to 3.1 per cent and in recent years to as high as 6.1 per cent.

    The cumulative increase in defense spending from 2001-02 to 2017-18 is estimated at $38.5 billion.

    The expenditures on maintaining law and order also grew from 1.5 per cent annually prior to 9/11 to now 7.8 per cent.

    The cumulative extra expenditure under this head is estimated at $18 billion.

    Similarly, the increased expenditure on private security are estimated at $7.7 billion.

    https://tribune.com.pk/story/1942464/2/
     
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  2. That Guy

    That Guy PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    I've said it before and I'll say it again, if the war on terror never occurred, Pakistan's GDP would be $600-700 billion dollars today, and it's debt to gdp ration would be a lot smaller, and the energy and financial crises would have been dealt with quickly.

    The war in Afghanistan has set back Pakistan by at least 2 decades, and has done irreparable damage.
     
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  3. shahbaz baig

    shahbaz baig SENIOR MEMBER

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    And yet yankies wish to do more.

    USA cant favor Pakistan on economical ground instead they are lobbying against Pakistan to weaken the economy. So go to hell with your do more.
     
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  4. Zulfiqar

    Zulfiqar FULL MEMBER

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    WOT inside Pakistan was needed and was going to occur anyhow. You can thank our leaders in 80s and 90s for their short shortsightedness that resulted in it.

    I don't believe in good and bad taliban. The only good taliban is the one who surrenders or who waits long enough to be demolished while we put down other bad talibans. Before anyone accuses me of using a sectarian filter then please note that I am a sunni.

    You don't keep the snakes in your own house. You keep them outside. One of the reasons all western countries are revoking citizenship of all daesh militants that were their citizens.

    I am a pushtun and my village was a hill away from being a taliban territory before the army launched operation in buner and malakand in 2009. Heck several extremist mullahs were also caught and liquidated by the army from my village back then.

    This shortsightedness of using proxies while not covering for the reaction is what resulted in current mess that we are in.

    Army learned the hard way and reclaimed all areas that were considered ilaka e gher. PA has fenced its border with Afghanistan because we don't have much trust on the good taliban.

    Once the showdown after peace negotiation occurs then liquidation of ANSF will result in mercenaries for hire in hundreds of thousands.

    This mullah takfeeri brigade has always been a liability. Even KSA has realized so. Syria, Iraq and other countries are perfect example of what these groups will do once they are in power. Our Swat was filled with blood due to people like these.

    There should be no tolerance on these groups and they shall be quashed along with PTM, BLA and the nascent threat in south punjab. They benefit no one.

    Anyone not owning WOT in Pakistan bears ill will for the country.It is time to cleanse the remaining Pakistan of this threat before it leads to breakup of Pakistan into several pieces.
     
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  5. maximuswarrior

    maximuswarrior ELITE MEMBER

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    LOL The writing is on the wall. There cannot be any functioning relationship with such a backstabbing nation.

    We made the right choice. Keep working with China.

    Also remove all militant groups from Pak soil.
     
  6. Khan Kore

    Khan Kore FULL MEMBER

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    Always think twice, before jumping into some one else's war. We could have respectfully refuse US, like the Turkish did, when they were asked, to allow the US forces to attack Iraq from the north. Even though the Turkish govt. was under their influence.
     
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  7. Reddington

    Reddington FULL MEMBER

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    Whatever Musharraf did under pressure was understandable and any other leader would have done the same thing. If we had refused USA's WOT, then USA along with India would have attacked Pakistan.

    India offered USA its bases to attack Pakistan instead of Afghanistan after 9/11. And then that so called Indian Parliament attack happened, just 2 months after 9/11. Then India sent its forces on the border which resulted in a standoff for almost 10 months signalling to the US that they are ready to attack.

    With this decision to enter War on terror, we got to live to fight another day.
     
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  8. VCheng

    VCheng ELITE MEMBER

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    So how was this figure revised and on what assumptions?

    70k*0.54 = 37,900 terrorists (!)

    Didn't the Afghan influx happen after the Russian invasion?
     
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  9. WarKa DaNG

    WarKa DaNG FULL MEMBER

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    Don't forget the mutilated bodies in Sohrab Khan and Green Chowks
     
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  10. Reddington

    Reddington FULL MEMBER

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    I think he is talking abot $120 billion something that economic survey of Pakistan reported officially.
    Here is the link.

    Pakistan suffers $123.1 bn losses in terror war


    ISLAMABAD: Since Pakistan became frontline ally of the United States in war on terror 16 years back after 9/11, the economy of this developing country suffered a whopping $123.1 billion cost on account of loss of lives, economic opportunities and damage to the country’s infrastructure.

    As Pakistan’s current GDP volume is $304 billion, this huge loss is 41 percent of the country’s total economy size. This indicates that two-fifth of the economy not only went in the air but it also further damaged the economic growth of the country.

    According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2016/17, this huge number has been worked out after thoroughly investigating the effects of war on the national economy for the last 16 years. The war on terror has been drastically affecting our economy, exports, physical infrastructure, tax collection and investment and our social fabric. Since the insurgency started in Pakistan following the US invasion of Afghanistan, more than 60,000 Pakistani civilians, security forces personnel and women and children have been killed in gun, bomb and suicide attacks. Besides, thousands of others have been seriously injured or handicapped and are unable to win bread for their children which ultimately also created other social issues in the society.

    On average, every year Pakistan suffered losses of $7.7 billion -- more than the country’s total expenditures on education, health and other social safety schemes.

    In recent years, security situation has improved to some extent, largely due to successful counterterrorism efforts of the government under the framework of the comprehensive National Action Plan, backed by an extensive and highly effective counterterrorism operation Zarb-e- Azb by the armed forces, and actions by other security and law enforcement agencies and intelligence-based operations across the country. After successful completion of Zarb-e-Azb, a country-wide operation Raddul Fasaad has been launched for eliminating any residual or latent threats.

    After the US invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan saw a huge influx of Afghan refugees as one of the main host countries. There was a sudden rise in the number and scale of terrorist attacks in the country. The cumulative impact of these developments adversely impacted the overall growth rate in all major sectors of the economy. Normal economic and trading activities were disrupted, resulting in higher costs of doing business and significant delays in meeting the export orders around the globe. As a result, Pakistani products gradually lost their market share to their competitors. Economic growth could not pick up as planned.

    In fiscal year 2017, $3.88 billion (Rs407.2 billion) losses to economy were recorded, sharply lower than $6.49 billion in fiscal year 2016, Pakistan’s Economic Survey revealed.

    The survey gives further figures, saying that in 2001/02, the cost was $2.67 billion, 2002/03 $2.75 billion, 2003/04 $2.93 billion, 2004/05 $3.4 billion, 2005/06 $3.99 billion, 2006/07 $4.67 billion, 2007/08 $6.94 billion, 2008/09 $9.18 billion, 2009/10 $13.56 billion, 2010/11 $23.77 billion, 2011/12 $11.98 billion, 2012/13 $9.97 billion, 2013/14 $7.7 billion, 2014/15 $9.24 billion and in 2015/16 it was $6.49 billion dollars.

    Pakistan continues to be a serious victim of terrorism, including foreign-sponsored terrorism from our immediate neighbourhood. A substantial portion of precious national resources, both men and material, have been diverted to address the emerging security challenges and to repair damaged infrastructure during the last several years. In addition to economic losses, cross-border terrorism in Pakistan has also been responsible for untold human sufferings due to indiscriminate, brutal terrorist attacks against civilian population.
    https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/206709-Pakistan-suffers-1231-bn-losses-in-terror-war
     
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  11. That Guy

    That Guy PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    Dealing with the militant backlash was definitely unavoidable, but the war on terror as it is today was a mistake. There were better ways to deal with the problem; let's not forget, the ttp were born as a direct result of the war on terror.

    I actually have a lot more I want to say, but it's 4:00 am here, I just got back from work and I need to sleep. Also, the phone is a terrible way to leave long comments.
     
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  12. Sheikh Rauf

    Sheikh Rauf SENIOR MEMBER

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    Thanks to musharaff and our stablishment who sell themselves very cheaply we are 200 million with nuclear how cud Pakistani elite do this to Pakistanies who they claim that they love the most "In the line of Fire" translation " sab say pehlay Pakistan"
    kab tak Pagal banaingay humain.
     
  13. Zulfiqar

    Zulfiqar FULL MEMBER

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    TTP were born before that. It drew its ranks from the various forces of the 90s such as TNSM and various kashmir and south punjab linked groups.

    TNSM actually blocked kohistan road in order to make government try to enforce "shariah" in the 90s.

    The father of Major Amir was a cleric (Panjpeeri group) whose teachings were directly responsible for radicalization in Swat, Bajaur and FATA.

    There was a time when I saw pamphlets being distributed for crowd funding so called Jihad in 1999-2000. I used to listen to the local mullah's sermons on friday who used to go to Afghanistan for "Jihad" after every few months. The kind of sermons that were then used later on via FM in swat. The kind that resulted in liquidation of two mullahs by the army in my village for their support to TTP elements in 2009.

    It was later that i realized in mid 2005/7 that it was all a sham. The funds were not being used to fund "Jihad" in Chechnya, IOK, Palestine. It was being used to fund their sham operations and extremism inside Pakistan.

    Only the shortsightedness of our leaders has resulted in this hydra of terrorism. TTP was here much before present WOT.

    We just failed to realize that its impact like the syrians in Raqqa until it was too late.

    You can't use proxy warfare without covering your own flanks. Unless you have the political, human and financial capital to bear losses, I think it is time to cut our losses and bug out.

    Focus on what we have, protect our borders and develop our economy and conventional strength. We have too many fault lines in our society and we should reduce them before focusing outwards.


    The others may forget but I remember khooni chowk.
     
  14. WarKa DaNG

    WarKa DaNG FULL MEMBER

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    Hell of a life it was
     
  15. thebaj

    thebaj FULL MEMBER

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    Shouldnt we have pushed the narrative that the Parliament attack was or couldve been an insider attack to create pressure on Pakistan's eastern front so we keep our eyes and efforts off the western front?