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Dutch embrace 'herd immunity' as dire death warning prompts UK to change course

jericho

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By Bevan Shields
March 17, 2020 — 11.13am

London: The Netherlands will embrace a "herd immunity" strategy to combat the coronavirus pandemic, just as Britain backs away from its own plans to manage rather than suppress the disease following warnings of 250,000 deaths.

In remarks that make him the first world leader to publicly back the herd immunity theory, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said a mass lockdown was not feasible and the country had instead opted for a plan that included "controlled distribution" of COVID-19 "among groups that are least at risk".




Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte says the country can't go into total lockdown and has instead turned to the herd immunity theory.CREDIT:AP

Herd immunity is a scenario in which so many people become resistant to a certain disease it becomes much harder for it to spread to the rest of the population.

However mass immunity is typically achieved through vaccinations rather than via exposure and recovery. Experts have warned that allowing coronavirus to sweep through younger and healthier members of the public is a dangerous way of building resistance in the community.

In his speech on Monday, Rutte said his government had ruled out two options: letting the virus spread unchecked, and locking down the country "for a year or even longer".

Instead, the government settled on a third option dubbed "maximum control".


Prime Minister Boris Johnson has escalated Britain's response to the coronavirus outbreak.CREDIT:AP

He said "experts are telling us" that the Netherlands can slow the spread of the virus "while at the same time building group immunity in a controlled way".

"Those who have had the virus are usually immune afterwards - just like in the old days with measles," he said. "The larger the group that is immune, the less chance that the virus will jump to vulnerable elderly people and people with poor health. With group immunity you build, as it were, a protective wall around them.


"That is the principle. But we have to realise that it can take months or even longer to build up group immunity and during that time we need to shield people who are at greater risk as much as possible."

The herd immunity concept has caused alarm among epidemiologists and immunologists.

William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard University, used a blistering opinion piece in The Guardian to warn "nobody should be under the illusion that this is something that can be dodged through somehow manipulating a virus that we are only beginning to understand".

The World Health Organisation has said COVID-19 hasn’t been in the population long enough to understand how it operates and Australian experts have also cast doubt over the idea.

Britain's Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance last week said achieving herd immunity was "one of the key things we need to do" alongside lowering the caseload peak and spreading out infections over a long period.

Having so far resisted some of the more draconian social distancing measures enacted across Europe, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday abruptly changed course and unveiled a series of new measures designed to more aggressively suppress the virus.

Hours after that announcement, a team of Imperial College researchers released modelling that found a middle-of-the-road "mitigation" approach - that up until Monday, London time, had been pursued by the UK - would overwhelm hospitals "many times over". The research is significant as the Imperial College team is advising Downing Street on how to respond to the crisis.

Mitigation focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread, whereas suppression aims to reverse epidemic growth, reduce case numbers to low levels and maintain that situation indefinitely.

The modelling found that tackling the outbreak only through mitigation measures such as case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing for the elderly would exceed "surge limits" for general ward beds and intensive care beds "by at least eight-fold" even under their most optimistic modelling scenario.

"In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in Great Britain, and 1.1 to 1.2 million in the United States.

"We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

However the researchers warned the "social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound".

The suppression measures would have to involve, at minimum, social distancing of the entire population, home isolation and quarantine, and potentially school and university closures.

"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package - or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission - will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed," the researchers said.

Johnson is expected to respond to the modelling's release on Tuesday.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...mpts-uk-to-change-course-20200317-p54arv.html
 

Menthol

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Actually, seeing how coronavirus is already spreading so wide...

Like it or not, Herd Immunity is the best solution.

I know, this is very shocking for the public.


But in the healthcare world, they see and think differently.

Do you know that the so-called seasonal flu around the world is actually an old virus that decades ago killed so many people?

Do you think SARS, MERS, H1N1, etc were gone?

And if you ever got flu in recent years... perhaps and most likely it's SARS, MERS, and H1N1.


I think we ever read that seasonal flu killed tens of thousands of people each year worldwide.

After reading this, you know what killed them.

SARS, MERS, and H1N1 are the so-called seasonal flu.

We just add another new one, NCOV-19.
 

American Pakistani

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Can pakistan use this method.

Sorry if it sounds bad but pakistan have a very high population and very low hospitals and I doubt there are any hospitals or facilities which can take this load. I believe herd immunity is best way forward for country like Pakistan.
 

PakAlp

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UK stated they will use the herd immunity approach as they took their time to close flights and borders. Now the virus is in nearly every city and schools will only close tomorrow. They are still using the herd method, just playing about. How can they use suppression when shops, supermarkets, many schools, clubs, pubs are still open. Dont believe Boris

Pakistan does not have a choice but to use the herd method. In order to control the virus they need to close all cities and borders which they have not done so.
 

Baba_Yaga

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Can pakistan use this method.

Sorry if it sounds bad but pakistan have a very high population and very low hospitals and I doubt there are any hospitals or facilities which can take this load. I believe herd immunity is best way forward for country like Pakistan.
This heard immunity is not a "method", it is crap pseudoscience made by so called "experts" who couldn't tell their head from their arse. The people who propose such inhumane methods are basically socially reclusive scientists without families who publish all sorts of research papers that no one reads. You are far better off following what you are currently doing. Herd immunity involves infecting 60-70% of the population quickly. Out of those 2-3% will die. If your hospitals can't cope with few hundred thousand infected, how will they cope with tens of millions infected all at once? With the current approach, it might happen that a large proportion of you do get infected, but at least you will know that you tried your best, and that is all that matters, rest is up to fate.
 

Dual Wielder

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The swines that are proposing this genocide should be used as lab rats for a potential vaccine. I pity the turkeys that voted for christmas last year, much rather have trump as PM then that sociopathic pr1ck
 

49savage

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By Bevan Shields
March 17, 2020 — 11.13am

London: The Netherlands will embrace a "herd immunity" strategy to combat the coronavirus pandemic, just as Britain backs away from its own plans to manage rather than suppress the disease following warnings of 250,000 deaths.

In remarks that make him the first world leader to publicly back the herd immunity theory, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said a mass lockdown was not feasible and the country had instead opted for a plan that included "controlled distribution" of COVID-19 "among groups that are least at risk".




Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte says the country can't go into total lockdown and has instead turned to the herd immunity theory.CREDIT:AP

Herd immunity is a scenario in which so many people become resistant to a certain disease it becomes much harder for it to spread to the rest of the population.

However mass immunity is typically achieved through vaccinations rather than via exposure and recovery. Experts have warned that allowing coronavirus to sweep through younger and healthier members of the public is a dangerous way of building resistance in the community.

In his speech on Monday, Rutte said his government had ruled out two options: letting the virus spread unchecked, and locking down the country "for a year or even longer".

Instead, the government settled on a third option dubbed "maximum control".


Prime Minister Boris Johnson has escalated Britain's response to the coronavirus outbreak.CREDIT:AP

He said "experts are telling us" that the Netherlands can slow the spread of the virus "while at the same time building group immunity in a controlled way".

"Those who have had the virus are usually immune afterwards - just like in the old days with measles," he said. "The larger the group that is immune, the less chance that the virus will jump to vulnerable elderly people and people with poor health. With group immunity you build, as it were, a protective wall around them.


"That is the principle. But we have to realise that it can take months or even longer to build up group immunity and during that time we need to shield people who are at greater risk as much as possible."

The herd immunity concept has caused alarm among epidemiologists and immunologists.

William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard University, used a blistering opinion piece in The Guardian to warn "nobody should be under the illusion that this is something that can be dodged through somehow manipulating a virus that we are only beginning to understand".

The World Health Organisation has said COVID-19 hasn’t been in the population long enough to understand how it operates and Australian experts have also cast doubt over the idea.

Britain's Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance last week said achieving herd immunity was "one of the key things we need to do" alongside lowering the caseload peak and spreading out infections over a long period.

Having so far resisted some of the more draconian social distancing measures enacted across Europe, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday abruptly changed course and unveiled a series of new measures designed to more aggressively suppress the virus.

Hours after that announcement, a team of Imperial College researchers released modelling that found a middle-of-the-road "mitigation" approach - that up until Monday, London time, had been pursued by the UK - would overwhelm hospitals "many times over". The research is significant as the Imperial College team is advising Downing Street on how to respond to the crisis.

Mitigation focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread, whereas suppression aims to reverse epidemic growth, reduce case numbers to low levels and maintain that situation indefinitely.

The modelling found that tackling the outbreak only through mitigation measures such as case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing for the elderly would exceed "surge limits" for general ward beds and intensive care beds "by at least eight-fold" even under their most optimistic modelling scenario.

"In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in Great Britain, and 1.1 to 1.2 million in the United States.

"We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time."

However the researchers warned the "social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound".

The suppression measures would have to involve, at minimum, social distancing of the entire population, home isolation and quarantine, and potentially school and university closures.

"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package - or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission - will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed," the researchers said.

Johnson is expected to respond to the modelling's release on Tuesday.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...mpts-uk-to-change-course-20200317-p54arv.html

Oh man, something is telling me this isn't gonna go well and is a very bad gamble. God bless...

This heard immunity is not a "method", it is crap pseudoscience made by so called "experts" who couldn't tell their head from their arse. The people who propose such inhumane methods are basically socially reclusive scientists without families who publish all sorts of research papers that no one reads. You are far better off following what you are currently doing. Herd immunity involves infecting 60-70% of the population quickly. Out of those 2-3% will die. If your hospitals can't cope with few hundred thousand infected, how will they cope with tens of millions infected all at once? With the current approach, it might happen that a large proportion of you do get infected, but at least you will know that you tried your best, and that is all that matters, rest is up to fate.
Not one lie detected. Im with you on this one..

Actually, seeing how coronavirus is already spreading so wide...

Like it or not, Herd Immunity is the best solution.

I know, this is very shocking for the public.


But in the healthcare world, they see and think differently.

Do you know that the so-called seasonal flu around the world is actually an old virus that decades ago killed so many people?

Do you think SARS, MERS, H1N1, etc were gone?

And if you ever got flu in recent years... perhaps and most likely it's SARS, MERS, and H1N1.


I think we ever read that seasonal flu killed tens of thousands of people each year worldwide.

After reading this, you know what killed them.

SARS, MERS, and H1N1 are the so-called seasonal flu.

We just add another new one, NCOV-19.

Interesting, I never knew this... I'm gonna read up on this tonight.
 

waz

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Yes not a great idea, we tried and it led us to hell!
The problem is such a method relies on a surge of infected which can literally bring even first world nations to their knees. With that in mind a nation ceases to function and I haven’t even got into the fact many lives will have to be lost, who is prepared to lose their loved ones over a shot in the dark?
Also little is still known of the virus, it can mutate and immunity is not guaranteed. We don’t know if you can become infected again either.
We have empirical data from China, Singapore, South Korea and places in Italy that isolation, leading to suppression of cases is the way forward. In the meantime the world hurries for a vaccine which is on the horizon.
I wouldn’t want to be in the Netherlands now..
 
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Dark1

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Herd immunity = Too lazy to put in the effort or know that the capability and capacity is not their. So book the inevitable deaths to herd theory. Hope all future diseases are also not going to be solved by herd theory. Ebola ! Let's infect 70% of the population and let the immunity develop.
Time to lock in the loser brits in their wet little island.
 

UKBengali

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Yes not a great idea, we tried and it led us to hell!
The problem is such a method relies on a surge of infected which can literally bring even first world nations to their knees. With that in mind a nation ceases to function and the I haven’t even got into the fact many lives will have to be lost, who is prepare to lose their loved ones over a shot in the dark?
Also little is still known of the virus, it can mutate and immunity is not guaranteed. We don’t know if you can become infected again either.
We have empirical data from China, Singapore, South Korea and places in Italy that isolation, leading to suppression of cases is the way forward. In the meantime the world hurries for a vaccine which is on the horizon.
I wouldn’t want to be in the Netherlands now..
The Dutch Prime Minister seems not to have heard of the simulation run by the experts at Imperial College of Science and Technology.
Hope he sees sense very soon!
 

Keysersoze

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Oct 13, 2006
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Actually, seeing how coronavirus is already spreading so wide...

Like it or not, Herd Immunity is the best solution.

I know, this is very shocking for the public.


But in the healthcare world, they see and think differently.

Do you know that the so-called seasonal flu around the world is actually an old virus that decades ago killed so many people?

Do you think SARS, MERS, H1N1, etc were gone?

And if you ever got flu in recent years... perhaps and most likely it's SARS, MERS, and H1N1.


I think we ever read that seasonal flu killed tens of thousands of people each year worldwide.

After reading this, you know what killed them.

SARS, MERS, and H1N1 are the so-called seasonal flu.

We just add another new one, NCOV-19.
Nope you clearly didn't understand anything about SARS or MERS or H1N1 having lower transmission rates (the death rates from MERS were much much higher). COVID19 has 23 times the death rate of flu. This has the potential to kill hundreds of millions
Herd immunity = Too lazy to put in the effort or know that the capability and capacity is not their. So book the inevitable deaths to herd theory. Hope all future diseases are also not going to be solved by herd theory. Ebola ! Let's infect 70% of the population and let the immunity develop.
Time to lock in the loser brits in their wet little island.
Hey I think you need to sort out the huge crisis that's going to hit India very soon. Not testing sick people in India doesn't make you exempt from disease.

Biggest losers in the world: The British & Dutch lab rats.
How's it going in Iran?
 

Menthol

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Nope you clearly didn't understand anything about SARS or MERS or H1N1 having lower transmission rates (the death rates from MERS were much much higher). COVID19 has 23 times the death rate of flu. This has the potential to kill hundreds of millions
H1N1 has a very high transmission rate.

Globally, according to WHO, 2 billion people were infected.

500 thousand were dead.

And that was before WHO stop counting and predicting, it was already beyond the capability to count and pointless to predict.


Not to mention, at the end when H1N1 became a so-called seasonal flu...

It killed thousands of people in a country each year, globally it's still a huge number.

If you ever got flu in recent years, most likely it was H1N1.


But the good news is... the more H1N1 transmitted among humans for years, they will become weaker and not as deadly as the first version.


But psychologically, does it matter to ordinary people like us?

Life goes on and everybody seems fine.


More likely coronavirus will be like H1N1.


Coronavirus has a huge shock effect on the public, psychologically...

Because it happened in China, and USA uses it for anti-China propaganda, part of the trade war.

Not to mention that the Chinese government itself was so paranoid and took a very aggressive solution.


If coronavirus occurred in another country besides China, it will be fine... (psychologically).

Coronavirus can't be conquered and eradicated completely, we just need to decide when we are going to stop to care about it and life goes on...

It can be now or two months or a year from now... it will be forgotten at the end (but not disappear).
 

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