Good analysis..Well I have always believed that the 'Battle of Kashmir' is being fought in Afghanistan since 4 decades now. My lame understanding of warfare in Indo-Pak theater is as follows:
- Our military establishment completely knows it that a 'toe to toe' war won't get them Kashmir. The time of high testosterone ridden sword fighting days are long gone. A 5'4" tall guy at a right distance with right weapon/tech can easily take care of a '6 foot tall martial race warrior'.
- The strategy that Pak military used against the USSR and USA/NATO is the 'one stop solution' for fighting a bigger enemy aka India. After the soviets gone from Afghanistan, it was being applied in Kashmir. Such as use local, imported and Kashmiri fighters to grind down India and remain defensively entrenched at LOC/International border, in case India decides to go 1965 way of pushing Pakistan.
- 9/11 screwed it up for Pak military. No wonder they hate Al Qaeeda who brought USA and later India in our backyard.
- Indian security establishment knows the point 2 very well. So they cozy-up with Americans and the anti-Afghan elements.
- Pak security establishment knows very clearly that as long as Americans are in Afghanistan and anti-Afghans are standing tall with Indian support in our back yard, not just the Kashmir dream is over but a lot of territorial integrity issues will arise (e.g., Durrand line). What Pak military establishment aims to do in Kashmir, it will be paid in return by India via Afghanistan. So the 'Battle of Kashmir' has to be won in Afghanistan.
- Now IF (it is a very big & fat & important IF) the Americans leave Afghanistan, a couple of years are going to be very painful for Pakistan and for of-course Afghans in general as well. Once it is over, our military establishment is going to settle a long list of scores with focused concentration of resources towards India and it won't be limited to Kashmir. Thanks to BJP & RSS, there will be ample opportunities in main land India for them at the cost of Indian Muslims and provided by the Indian Muslims.
- Finally, I personally believe that other than the current jingoism, India wants to make LOC a border but it is too much of a loss for Pak military and their wish to settle 1971. So the game is on and it is a game of nerves, patience and strategy
Afghanistan problem must be solved quickly so all attention can be focused on Kashmir..