• Monday, July 6, 2020

Donetsk Warns Ukraine Army Located In The East To "Leave In 48 Hours" Or Face War

Discussion in 'Russian Defence Forum' started by Pakistani-nationalist, May 13, 2014.

  1. Pakistani-nationalist

    Pakistani-nationalist FULL MEMBER

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    http://edge.********.com/80281E/ll_a_s/2014/May/12/********-dot-com-483_1399935583-669840_0203487338546_web_tete_1399935787.jpg.resized.jpg?d5e8cc8eccfb6039332f41f6249e92b06c91b4db65f5e99818bade9f4440d9df3be3&ec_rate=230
    Update: And just to make sure Russia has a catalyst:

    • UKRAINE FORCES ATTACK EASTERN CITY OF SLOVYANSK, INTERFAX SAYS
    [/list]* * *

    With the US having voiced its support for Ukraine's "anti-terrorist" operations, and Russia strongly supportive of pro-Russian people's decisions to regional self-determination, the threats coming from the newly independent regions are a concern (that markets clearly do not care about):

    • DONETSK ARMY SAYS WILL FIGHT UKRAINE FORCES IF DEADLINE IGNORED
    [/list]Ukrainian military forces have 48 hours to leave the region or Donetsk own "anti-terrorist" forces will fight. Of course, with the US already saying the referendums are illegal and not recognizing them, we suspect it will be time for more sanctions soon (despite the lessons below).



    Insurgent group army of so-called Donetsk People’s Republic “will start its own anti-terrorist operation in Donetsk region” against Ukrainian military forces if they don’t heed seperatist army chief Igor Girkin’s 48-hour ultimatum to leave or obey him, head of seperatist group, Denis Pushilin, says by phone.

    So... buy stocks?

    And a different perspective on which the western approach to resolving the Ukraine crisis may not be exactly "working."

    Lessons on Sanctions Based on Past Experience (via PIIE)

    1. Don’t overreach. Policymakers should avoid inflated expectations of what sanctions can accomplish. Sanctions seldom impair the military potential or change the policies of an important targeted power. Modest goals contribute to successful outcomes. Thus it may make more sense to achieve the modest goal of thwarting an impending invasion of Eastern Ukraine than to try to reverse the fait accompli of Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

    2. Russian economic integration with the West is an advantage. Economic sanctions are most effective when aimed against close trading partners with more to lose.

    3. Don’t count on Russian public opinion. It is hard to “bully a bully” with economic measures. Democratic regimes are more susceptible to economic pressure than autocratic regimes like Russia.

    4. Slam the hammer; don’t turn the screw. Economic sanctions are best deployed with maximum impact. Gradually imposed steps may simply strengthen the target national government’s resolve. In the present case, threatening very heavy sanctions if Russian armed forces cross the Ukrainian border has the best chance of deterrence.

    5. International cooperation is not always essential, but in the case of Russia, it probably is. A large coalition of sanctioning countries does not necessarily make the sanctions highly likely to succeed. Financial sanctions against Iran, on the other hand, succeeded in large part because they were backed by an international coalition of countries willing to forgo Iranian oil imports and dealings with Iranian banks. To be sure, the effort to gain international support can dilute their scope. But the United States has little choice but to gain the cooperation of Western Europe in this case.

    6. Choose the right tool. Sanctions deployed in conjunction with other measures, such as covert action or military operations, increase chances of success. So far, the United States has been reluctant to provide substantial military assistance to Ukraine, out of concern that Russia will escalate its own intervention. Instead, the military dimension of US support has been limited to greater assistance to NATO allies in the region, especially Poland.

    7. Don’t be a cheapskate or spendthrift. Sanctioning governments must balance the benefits against the costs borne domestically to sustain public support at home. At present, the United States, but especially Europe, are facing the resistance of major business firms over the possibility of severe energy and financial sanctions.

    8. Look before you leap. Sanctioning governments should weigh their means and objectives against unintended costs and consequences. In the Ukrainian case, all signs indicate that President Obama and his European counterparts (especially Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany) are giving each step of the sanctions regime their carefully guarded attention.
    Source:Donetsk Warns Ukraine Army Located In The East To "Leave In 48 Hours" Or Face War | Zero Hedge
     
  2. American Eagle

    American Eagle MILITARY PROFESSIONAL

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    Here is some data to help you understand how volatile and dangerous the situation is in and over Ukraine:
    Why has Mr. Putin caused all this bloodshed and trouble when before he had a peaceful working production relationship with Ukraine with these contracted out items being manufactured in a free enterprise for profit system for Russia inside soverign Ukraine?


    [​IMG] (Gene Thorp / The Washington Post)

    Every city named in related postings is included in this map of key services or natural resources which Mr. Putin wants ownership of now. These services, resources and cities are the economic heart of Ukraine.

    Shall we return to the time of Machiavelli when we had warring city-states? The so-called leaders of what would be in effect city states are either business failures, government/political failutures, or both types of failures. "Some" leadership. Murdering thugs who call the acting government in Kiev Nazis, but "those Nazis" were in part led by the now ex-President of Ukraine who has fled to Russia where President Putin named him Special Adviser on Ukranian Affairs. Etc.

    Note how Russia's military deployments, never withdrawn as stated to have already been done last week by Mr. Putin, match up with the locations of the services and resources Russia gets or got from Ukraine until now.


    RUSSIA'S BUILD UP ON THE UKRAINIAN BORDER

    By Gene Thorp, Published: May 2, 2014
    Russia has been conducting military exercises with 45,000 combat troops on the eastern border of Ukraine since March 13, destabilizing the eastern part of the country and stoking fears in Kiev of an imminent invasion. The map below is based on a paper released by the Royal United Services Institute in April that details which Russian units have been mobilized and where they are operating. Further analysis by The Washington Post shows where these Russian units have come from and what portion of Russia's regionally available combat forces have been shifted to the Ukrainian border. Related story.


    [​IMG] SOURCE: RUSI, Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Ukraine White Book, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Global Security, National Defense University.
     
  3. Pakistani-nationalist

    Pakistani-nationalist FULL MEMBER

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    Well it,s quite obvious in case of any conflict Ukrainian military stand no chance against the russian military.