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Dollar price on the rise in Bangladesh

Pak Nationalist

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This will answer your questions hopefully, they are projecting it to exceed 26 Billion next year.


Also see this, (I am no economist however, @Destranator bhai can you comment please?)

My God! I checked your trade and CAD data yesterday. As far as I remember reading, you have never had an over 18 billion USD trade deficit in the past. What is the cause of this big leap in deficit expansion? Is it due to covid related supply disruption? Exports are being hit? The deficit is expanding due to import growth or export contraction? I also came to know that, unlike Pakistan, your remittance inflows are dwindling this year. I suspect ours would start plateauing since the construction-related amnesty package has run its course. Lots of black money was being funneled as remittance for investment in the construction sector here to whiten it. I consider BD a second home. I am deeply interested in the trajectory your nation takes.
 

bluesky

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Dollar needs to go up a bit against Taka.

Will make our exports far more competitive.
Cheaper dollars induce FDI people to invest in a country. A cheap dollar makes the product cheap in the international market and thus competitive. So, it is not actually bad.

But, our GDP will become then lower than now in terms of dollars. However, it is not wise to keep Taka value high artificially.

By the way, BD is expecting a lower volume of remittances in the coming months because of the pandemic. So, the market is reflecting the reality.
 

Bilal9

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My God! I checked your trade and CAD data yesterday. As far as I remember reading, you have never had an over 18 billion USD trade deficit in the past. What is the cause of this big leap in deficit expansion? Is it due to covid related supply disruption? Exports are being hit? The deficit is expanding due to import growth or export contraction? I also came to know that, unlike Pakistan, your remittance inflows are dwindling this year. I suspect ours would start plateauing since the construction-related amnesty package has run its course. Lots of black money was being funneled as remittance for investment in the construction sector here to whiten it. I consider BD a second home. I am deeply interested in the trajectory your nation takes.

There should be a lot of reasons for this but I am not the expert you seek for the answers. My best guess (maybe @bluesky bhai can attest) is industrial input import (fossil fuel) such as HSD, Crude oil to run power plants and cotton or other fiber for processing into textiles. Factories were running during Covid non stop but past Covid, as expected, there will be a huge jump to get back to normal export operations.

I do not believe that our remittances will be dwindling more for any specific reason compared to other countries. In Western countries and in the Gulf, effects of Covid is mostly receding rapidly and work patterns are getting back to normal AFAIK.

I do know that there is about $12 Billion of known Black Money reserves in Bangladesh which is a reliable estimate. My math could be unreliable, the figure quoted in the local press was actually ten lakh crores. The govt. has in principle agreed some of this money to be laundered without question. The way this is done is usually residential and commercial real estate among other things.

Maybe @Destranator bhai or @Homo Sapiens bhai can comment among others. My apologies if I left others out.
 
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salute

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There should be a lot of reasons for this but I am not the expert you seek for the answers. My best guess (maybe @bluesky bhai can attest) is industrial input import (fossil fuel) such as HSD, Crude oil to run power plants and cotton or other fiber for processing into textiles. Factories were running during Covid non stop but past Covid, as expected, there will be a huge jump to get back to normal export operations.

I do not believe that our remittances will be dwindling more for any specific reason compared to other countries. In Western countries and in the Gulf, effects of Covid is mostly receding rapidly and work patterns are getting back to normal AFAIK.

I do know that there is about $12 Billion of known Black Money reserves in Bangladesh which is a reliable estimate. My math could be unreliable, the figure quoted in the local press was actually ten lakh crores. The govt. has in principle agreed some of this money to be laundered without question. The way this is done is usually residential and commercial real estate among other things.

Maybe @Destranator bhai or @Homo Sapiens bhai can comment among others. My apologies if I left others out.
Ten lakh crore taka is actually $120 billion not $12 billion.
One crore is ten million. So ten lakh crores is ten million million Taka, or 10,000,000,000,000 (Ten Trillion) Taka. Or US$12 Billion almost, at current exchange rates.
Who taught you math?
 

bluesky

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This will answer your questions hopefully, they are projecting it to exceed 26 Billion next year.
If the deficit becomes something near $26 billion, the value of Taka may depreciate so that a dollar may become 100 Taka.

The trade deficit so far was covered by remittances received from our citizens working abroad. Now, new people are not getting jobs in the ME, and many workers already there are being retrenched.

I fear the trend will not stop because Bd has so far failed to produce and export non-traditional mechanical or electrical/ electronics goods. I was expecting the country would build mechanical or chemical-based technology industries and would produce them that did not happen.

Instead of using the dollar reserves to heavily industrialize, the country rather borrowed dollars to build a few prestige-enhancing projects. Last year BD borrowed $7 billion and repaid $1.93 billion.

This year the payment will be more than that and in the future, the amount of yearly repayment will only increase when many more loan money will be matured.

However, when Taka depreciates, there is a possibility that FDI people would invest here. If such a thing happens, the trade situation will be under control.
 

bluesky

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Ten lakh crore taka is actually $120 billion not $12 billion.

Who taught you math?
Yes, it is $120 billion approximately and not $12 billion. But, why do you guys have to dishonor others for making a simple mathematical mistake?

It does not make you another Pythagoras, Girolamo Cardano, Leonhard Euler, Paul Erdös, idiot. Or, does it?
 

salute

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Yes, it is $120 billion approximately and not $12 billion. But, why do you guys have to dishonor others for making a simple mathematical mistake?

It does not make you another Pythagoras, Girolamo Cardano, Leonhard Euler, Paul Erdös, idiot. Or, does it?

I wouldn't say anything similar to you. When a conversation happens between two, you can't ignore history. Right now, you are just butting in.
If the deficit becomes something near $26 billion, the value of Taka may depreciate so that a dollar may become 100 Taka.

The trade deficit so far was covered by remittances received from our citizens working abroad. Now, new people are not getting jobs in the ME, and many workers already there are being retrenched.

I fear the trend will not stop because Bd has so far failed to produce and export non-traditional mechanical or electrical/ electronics goods. I was expecting the country would build mechanical or chemical-based technology industries and would produce them that did not happen.

Instead of using the dollar reserves to heavily industrialize, the country rather borrowed dollars to build a few prestige-enhancing projects. Last year BD borrowed $7 billion and repaid $1.93 billion.

This year the payment will be more than that and in the future, the amount of yearly repayment will only increase when many more loan money will be matured.

However, when Taka depreciates, there is a possibility that FDI people would invest here. If such a thing happens, the trade situation will be under control.

In 3 years, Bangladesh will face similar fate as Pakistan if it doesn't diversify its exports.
 

Bilal9

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Yes, it is $120 billion approximately and not $12 billion. But, why do you guys have to dishonor others for making a simple mathematical mistake?

It does not make you another Pythagoras, Girolamo Cardano, Leonhard Euler, Paul Erdös, idiot. Or, does it?

Thanks @bluesky bhai, been a little off lately. My bad.
Ten lakh crore taka is actually $120 billion not $12 billion.

Who taught you math?

And I guess you have never made a mistake in your life?

Nice to know you are so perfect.
 

bluesky

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I wouldn't say anything similar to you. When a conversation happens between two, you can't ignore history. Right now, you are just butting in.
You are trying to be too smart. But thanks, anyway. Because of you, I have re-read Pythagoras and thanked him for creating the most extraordinary geometrical theorem for a right triangle :

This theorem can be written as an equation relating the lengths of the sides a, b and c, often called the Pythagorean equation:

1631400306118.png
 

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bluesky

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In 3 years, Bangladesh will face similar fate as Pakistan if it doesn't diversify its exports.
I have been saying similar things during my years in this forum that borrowing foreign money to build a few prestigious civil engineering projects is no recipe for developing a country and every country has flopped by trying to do so in the last 100 years.

However, I will not directly support your opinion here because you are an Indian and a Hindu. My countrymen will chide me for doing so, especially @leonblack08 who supports BAL love affairs with the Indian govt but disapproves of Indians' making comments on BD in this Forum.

By the way, the concept of ZERO (0) was created by the learned Hindus of India many thousands of years ago, and the Arabs spread it throughout the then known Western world.

Your 3 years is taboo for me to support, but within a period of 10 years, BD would be unable to make repayments to the international lenders. It will have to borrow more money but only to repay the arrears with the borrowed money. Last year, BD repaid $1.93 billion of the borrowed money.

ধার করা পয়সা দিয়া পোলাউ বিরিয়ানি খাওয়ার পরিনাম সবসময়ই খারাব।

However, note one point that a cheaper Taka may encourage the FDI companies to invest in BD. So, things will change outright at that. So, I would expect FDIs after the further depreciation of Taka.
 

leonblack08

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I have been saying similar things during my years in this forum that borrowing foreign money to build a few prestigious civil engineering projects is no recipe for developing a country and every country has flopped by trying to do so in the last 100 years.

However, I will not directly support your opinion here because you are an Indian and a Hindu. My countrymen will chide me for doing so, especially @leonblack08 who supports BAL love affairs with the Indian govt but disapproves of Indians' making comments on BD in this Forum.

By the way, the concept of ZERO (0) was created by the learned Hindus of India many thousands of years ago, and the Arabs spread it throughout the then known Western world.

Your 3 years is taboo for me to support, but within a period of 10 years, BD would be unable to make repayments to the international lenders. It will have to borrow more money but only to repay the arrears with the borrowed money. Last year, BD repaid $1.93 billion of the borrowed money.

ধার করা পয়সা দিয়া পোলাউ বিরিয়ানি খাওয়ার পরিনাম সবসময়ই খারাব।

However, note one point that a cheaper Taka may encourage the FDI companies to invest in BD. So, things will change outright at that. So, I would expect FDIs after the further depreciation of Taka.

Stop tagging me in your nonsense posts.

I am not here to entertain your attention seeking needs. See a therapist if you are in desperate need of attention.
 

leonblack08

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I don't need tagging a BAL stupid like you. But do not respond to my posts because I do not like enemies of Bangladesh with double faces. One face supports BAL overtures towards Indian hegemony and the other face hides itself from being criticized by the Indian posters.

I reserve the right to respond to your ugly posts when you make personal attacks. I have the freedom also to write against your stupid opinions because they pollute the minds of innocent BD posters who wrongly think yours is patriotism while you are essentially an ugly-looking enemy of BD.

Come with one face, idiot!! Do you think your kind of shallow guys with little knowledge can beat me just by Dhamki? Study many subjects for another 100 years before you can contest my opinions. Remember it.

This govt has already ruined the future of the country that makes India and Indian posters here very happy. My only expectation is the arrival of FDI guys.

So you decided to unleash your ill mannered self. Just like you do with every other forum members here. This has to be stopped for good.

Just who do you think you are? We are not your slaves that we are supposed to tolerate your verbal abuse. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but the moment anyone disagrees with you, you start labeling them and of course also start abusing them. Do you expect everyone here to call you "sir" just because you happen to grow some grey hairs? Respect is earned, not given. Learn to respect others if you want it to be reciprocated.

With regards to the post that got you all riled up and you started labelling me as BAL this BAL that, go back and read it again Post#15 Post#23

Show me exactly where I started name calling you. I can for sure show that you started calling me BAL crony because I disagreed with your point of view. Post#30

And here you are talking of freedom of speech. Such a hypocrite.

You either have difficulty comprehending English or you are just an ill mannered and unpleasant individual, just coming to vent your personal life's frustration by picking up fights with every forum member. People like you have driven out knowledgeable and respectful members off this forum. You are literally the epitome of what is wrong with Bangladesh.

I will be reporting your post and every other post you tag me in future because I have absolutely no interest in having a conversation with you.

@waz @The Eagle Please look into this individual as he repeatedly resorts to labeling and calling other forum members "idiot" and "stupid" the moment anyone has the slightest disagreement with him. He has done it many times in the past and this seriously does need to be looked at.
 
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bluesky

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@waz @The Eagle Please look into this individual as he repeatedly resorts to labeling and calling other forum members "idiot" and "stupid" the moment anyone has the slightest disagreement with him. He has done it many times in the past and this seriously does need to be looked at.
This is very usual for a BAL fag to cry loud when he loses a debate. Grow up baby, grow up and answer what I wrote about the dollar depreciation.

It seems a BAL poster like you is trying to disorient the thread by accusing me indecently. You are a very shameless idiot!! Now it is time you say something about Taka / Dollar relationship.

Taka will depreciate further, note this because BAL guys like you believe in the invincibility of BAL economic policies. BAL policy is to borrow and waste money and claim it is superstructure development.

Last year this BAL govt borrowed $7 billion but repaid $1.93 billion. So, tell me about 2021. Will it not be a borrowing of $7 billion and a repayment of $2.5 billion, I guess!!

I will not be surprised if a dollar becomes 100 Taka in a short period of time. Are you angry for saying the truth, idiot!!
 

salute

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I have been saying similar things during my years in this forum that borrowing foreign money to build a few prestigious civil engineering projects is no recipe for developing a country and every country has flopped by trying to do so in the last 100 years.

However, I will not directly support your opinion here because you are an Indian and a Hindu. My countrymen will chide me for doing so, especially @leonblack08 who supports BAL love affairs with the Indian govt but disapproves of Indians' making comments on BD in this Forum.

By the way, the concept of ZERO (0) was created by the learned Hindus of India many thousands of years ago, and the Arabs spread it throughout the then known Western world.

Your 3 years is taboo for me to support, but within a period of 10 years, BD would be unable to make repayments to the international lenders. It will have to borrow more money but only to repay the arrears with the borrowed money. Last year, BD repaid $1.93 billion of the borrowed money.

ধার করা পয়সা দিয়া পোলাউ বিরিয়ানি খাওয়ার পরিনাম সবসময়ই খারাব।

However, note one point that a cheaper Taka may encourage the FDI companies to invest in BD. So, things will change outright at that. So, I would expect FDIs after the further depreciation of Taka.

I actually think in next 5 years, it would be hard to maintain the growth story of textiles for Bangladesh. Unless you diversify the production, I don't see how FDI happens even with cheaper taka. Your consumption numbers also have to improve for others to take notice. BBS statistics can create a narrative in Bangladesh but business are not fools to not see through it. Hence the abysmal FDI.

Right now, your government has no choice but borrow externally to manage a huge budget deficit. It can't borrow much domestically as it would stifle loan growth for your corporates. A lot of borrowing is being done for capital spending like you mentioned. Already your public sector share in external debt is growing because of that.

Of the total foreign debt, the public sector's share rose to $52.2 billion in December last from $ 44.8 billion in March, 2020.

With such high borrowings from the foreign source, Bangladesh might face problems while servicing the debt with its limited resources. Bangladesh really has to improve FDI and improve its tax-to-GDP ratio otherwise I see a lot of trouble ahead. Bangladesh had gone too far with BBS play.
 

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