• Thursday, August 22, 2019

Did India overestimate its ‘position’ in Afghanistan?

Discussion in 'Afghanistan Defence Forum' started by Champion_Usmani, Jul 18, 2019.

  1. Champion_Usmani

    Champion_Usmani SENIOR MEMBER

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    By Yasmeen Aftab Ali
    In a positive development for Afghanistan, a four-party meeting on the Afghan Peace Process was held in Beijing on July 10 – 11, 2019. The joint statement issued by the participants of the meeting made two pertinent points.

    First was that “China, Russia, and the United States welcomed Pakistan joining the consultation and believe that Pakistan can play an important role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan.”

    The second was that “the four sides agreed to maintain the momentum of consultation, will invite other important stakeholders to join on the basis of the trilateral consensus agreed on April 25, 2019, in Moscow, and this broader group will meet when intra-Afghan negotiations start.”

    The meetings also emphasized on the fact that the peace framework should “guarantee the orderly and responsible transition of the security situation and detail an agreement on a future inclusive political arrangement acceptable to all Afghans.”

    A very interesting aspect of the meeting was reducing India to the “sub-text”. India is nowhere in the undergoing peace process. Nor is it likely to be anywhere near the peace process anytime soon.

    The blame for this lies squarely on the doorstep of India’s ‘tunnel approach’ policy succinctly summed up by M. K. Bhadrakumar, who writes, “Fundamentally, the Indian policy failure lies in turning Afghanistan into the turf to wage a proxy war against Pakistan. In the zero-sum mindset, Delhi overlooked that Pakistan has legitimate interests in Afghanistan — no less than what India would have in, say, Nepal — and that by virtue of culture, tribal and ethnic affinity or sheer geography and economic and social compulsions, Afghans can never do without Pakistan.”

    India has also reportedly been funding the NDS to use various miscreant groups against Pakistan.

    It seems that India did not come to grips with the new ground reality in Afghanistan.

    It should have!

    Today, the Taliban controls more area than they did in 2001. Taliban attacks on both security and civil setups have inflicted heavy casualties. This has damaged the writ of the government in Kabul, which India has strongly supported in the guise of an “independent regime”. Afghan President Ghani, unfortunately, took a number of wrong decisions that put him out in the cold. These decisions resulted in the isolation of many influential leaders; removing his Senior Adviser Ahmad Zia Masood [Tajik by origin], cutting off relations with a strong Hazara leader Mohammad Mohaqiq and forcing General Abdul Rashid Dostum into a situation where he went on a self-imposed exile [strong leader hailing from Uzbek community]. He then continued to form ties with non-Pashtun leaders. His security advisor Atmar was given decision-making powers and access to resources only allowed to first Vice President.

    India’s support of an apparently “compromised” Kabul regime to gain access to vast energy markets in Central Asia and, in the process, use the Afghan turf against Pakistan has finally led to pulling of the rug from under the Indian feet.

    The Kabul regime has also faced serious pressures due to the Taliban’s denial of acknowledging them as an “independently credible set-up”. Moreover, the regime has also been kept out by Pakistan, Russia, the U.S and China from the peace talks.

    During the U.S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to India, emphasis was laid by Ajit Doval upon holding timely elections in Afghanistan. For India, therefore, it was a double whammy when the US ambassador to Afghanistan, John Bass, stated that the Afghan presidential elections, which were to be held on September 28th, must be postponed until the peace process with the Taliban achieves concrete outcomes.

    America has finally come to the conclusion that any shade of peace in Afghanistan is not possible without Pakistan’s involvement. India is nowhere in the picture in spite of her investments in infrastructure in Afghanistan. Moreover, Pakistan’s decision of airspace closure, thereby cutting away India from Afghanistan, coupled with economic costs drove home in no uncertain terms the importance of Pakistan to the peace talks in Afghanistan.

    Therefore, at this point, in spite of smarting over the cards dealt out to India, any false flag operation to incriminate Pakistan in any adventure will not be looked kindly upon.

    Finally, one country that needs to be taken on board in the peace process is Iran. Tehran has reportedly supported the Taliban to contain the US war on Afghan turf, as its interest is in ensuring zero spillover effects into its territory. Hence, Tehran will likely support a heterogeneous set-up in Kabul.

    It needs wisdom by all involved to read the Afghan Tarot Card. Such an opportunity to finally have some semblance of peace in the war-torn country may not present itself very soon again.

    The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9

    https://www.matrixmag.com/did-india-overestimate-its-position-in-afghanistan/
     
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  2. Indus Pakistan

    Indus Pakistan BANNED

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    • India underestimate geography by deluding themselves. They often believe and act like they have a border with Afghanistan and the British Raj is still intact.
    • India underestimating the historical connections we have in our shared ethnic relations which help Pakistan leverage it ti it's advantage.
     
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  3. newb3e

    newb3e SENIOR MEMBER

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    over estimation, exaggeration, delusional are synonymous with Idia.
     
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  4. Wow

    Wow FULL MEMBER

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    India overestimates its position in the world in general
     
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  5. Stealth

    Stealth ELITE MEMBER

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    I tell you, India had a lot of support from the US (US means USA, UK, France)....

    27 Feb event totally reverse 2 decades of support ... in many factors...

    Americans literally lost hope in India's capability of dealing China... India's deterrence, capability and hegemonic projection bluff-out, in fact raped in the broad day light... lol

    Video and pictures of the raped scene have seen by the entire world but again.... a nation who believes that everything is a victory for them, you can't argue with such mind-set nor you can go for debate against... lol

    I have seen lot of frustration in the western establishment because of India's performance against its farig tareen chuta "Smooollll" oh ya defaulter, worst economic wala neighbor lol...

    Americans put extreme pressure on Pakistan to accept India's hegemony in the region for consecutive 20 years but one thing American realized after 20 years of their useless, non-sense behavior, you can't handle or pressurize Pakistan with respect to India. Pakistan has one policy and that policy "damn care about India and its so-called deterrence". Pakistan will never accept nor China, so that pressure tactics failed and realization of that was actually validate and authenticate by India on 27 Feb episode...

    We must thankful to Modi for that....
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2019
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  6. xyxmt

    xyxmt ELITE MEMBER

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    their firm believe is Afghanis love them

    Like Ghaznavi
     
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  7. TOPGUN

    TOPGUN PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    A pathetic nation that overestimates everything / everywhere and ends up a loser lolz.
     
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  8. Hex0maniac

    Hex0maniac FULL MEMBER

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    Not just in Afghanistan but globally India over estimated its position.
    after kulbushan gangadesh will be a certified state sponsored terror state.
    modi is going to scuttled indian reputation and is dangerously close to civil unrest.
     
  9. Hakikat ve Hikmet

    Hakikat ve Hikmet SENIOR MEMBER

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    The British Raj didn’t have a good memory for the Afgan expeditions either!!! They had to buy out the Afgan war lords - albeit with the taxes collected from the Indians - to get a “Buffer State”.....
     
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  10. M.Bison

    M.Bison FULL MEMBER

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    What does Germany and KSA have to do with Afghanistan? Why are you as an Indian proud to be part of that meeting? WTF will your people guarantee when it comes to Afghanistan? The only thing your people can guarantee is how much cow piss you will ship to Afghanistan and how much cross border terrorism you can do in Pakistan. India is not a major player and if it was it would be invited to the primary meetings. You are being invited to the meeting that is happening after the fact.
     
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  11. Hakikat ve Hikmet

    Hakikat ve Hikmet SENIOR MEMBER

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    Ever since Sultan Mahmut stuffs haven’t gone smoothly for the Indians vis-a-vis Afganistan!!! They have failed to transform the “Last Afgan” into the “Last Mujib” for Afganistan is an arid land unlike the East Pak....
     
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  12. American Pakistani

    American Pakistani ELITE MEMBER

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    India should not be involved in Afghanistan. As the latter is not it's neighbor. Worry about Bangladesh or Bhutan, not Afghanistan.
     
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  13. VCheng

    VCheng ELITE MEMBER

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    So which tenet of international geopolitics says that countries can be involved only with their neighbors?
     
  14. Stealth

    Stealth ELITE MEMBER

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    Built one library or supporting NDS for fueling terrorism in Pakistan won't give you any advantage nor any help in a longer run especially in the state which has hardly 50% of control over its own territory.

    As I said before, arguing with the nation who believe that everything is victory or favoring them is like.... trying to convince mental disorder on something...
     
  15. American Pakistani

    American Pakistani ELITE MEMBER

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    None, but Pakistan's national interests says that.