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Decoding Pakistan's Nukes

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by VelocuR, Aug 12, 2013.

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  1. VelocuR

    VelocuR SENIOR MEMBER

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    Decoding Pakistan's Nukes

    Aug. 11, 2013 - 03:11PM |
    By MANPREET SETHI

    Since Pakistan announced the first test of the 60-kilometer Nasr ballistic missile in 2011, there is an implicit assumption in Western writings that India will respond to the Pakistani move toward tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) with similar weapons of its own.

    However, this is precisely what India’s response should not be, and is unlikely to be, if the country and the rest of the international community correctly read the signals from Rawalpindi.

    The primary task of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is not to deter India’s nuclear weapons but to avoid having to engage a superior military capability. Pakistan believes that its low nuclear threshold constrains India from militarily punishing it.

    India, meanwhile, maintains there is space to fight a conventional war despite nuclear weapons. The concept of limited war, a series of quick cross-border strikes whose objective would not be to occupy Pakistani territory but to deliver a punishing blow, has been conceived in this context. This alarms Pakistan because if India can tailor a conventional response to remain below its red lines, then its nuclear weapons fail in their objective.

    Pakistan has to keep its nuclear weapons relevant to deter an Indian conventional response. Pakistan, in fact, is not seeking to redress the conventional balance through the use of these weapons but to deter a conventional war through the threat of their use.


    It has no illusions about the military effectiveness of the weapon but seeks to create an environment that deters India. In fact, Pakistan appears to view TNW as being a more effective deterrent than relying solely on the threat of large-scale, long-range nuclear strikes. The attraction of this option is likely to increase as the conventional military balance with India grows more adverse.

    Pakistani decision-makers well understand that even a single use of a TNW could trigger tragic consequences. But, they believe they would not have to use the TNW because the risk of nuclear escalation would deter. Therefore, Pakistani nuclear strategy, which has always relied on brinkmanship, has found in TNW another tool to keep India, and by extension the international community, on the edge.

    The TNWs are meant to send two messages: One, that their use would be so stunning it would force India to halt hostilities or face the prospect of further escalation; and secondly, that the use of a low-yield battlefield weapon would not be seen as provocation enough by India or the international community to merit nuclear retaliation.

    Pakistan believes India would not have the will, the motivation, the flexibility or the incentive to act. Therefore, Pakistan is not miscalculating India’s capability but its credibility to act.

    Two Pakistani assumptions seem to drive this philosophy. The first is that the international community would stop India — first from conventional retaliation because of the threat of escalation, and subsequently from nuclear retaliation in case Pakistan did use TNW.

    The second possible assumption is that the fractious nature of Indian domestic politics and the “softness of the state” would push India to seek to end the war rather than escalate — not only because India would fear more nuclear strikes, but because it would not want to inflict senseless damage across the border.

    The Indian response to Pakistan’s TNW must address these assumptions. The key is to credibly convey the certainty of retaliation. This requires buttressing its nuclear command and control at both the military and the political levels.

    India must transparently demonstrate certain realities to the Pakistanis. First, that it has redundancies in command-and-control structures and processes that will ensure survivability of the chain of command at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels, as well as communication systems to undertake effective retaliation.

    It must also show that its troops are well-trained to fight in an environment where TNWs are used. Above all, the political resolve to retaliate to cause unacceptable damage must be made absolutely clear.

    Meanwhile, at the diplomatic level, India must highlight to the US and China the dangers of Pakistan’s ongoing development and eventual deployment of TNWs. If Pakistan develops these weapons, deployment will follow, which means delegated command and control, with its obvious challenges of nuclear security and risks of inadvertent, mistaken or unauthorized launch.

    The possible use of the weapon also threatens to breach a long-held nuclear taboo, which could open up the possibility of future nuclear use by other states or nonstate actors. None of this can be a source of any complacency for either the US or China.

    India does not require TNW and neither does it want to engage in a protracted nuclear war. This is the point that should go out loud and clear after decoding the message that Pakistan seeks to convey through its TNWs.

    Manpreet Sethi, ICSSR senior fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi.
     
  2. Hulk

    Hulk ELITE MEMBER

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    So we are saying that we are over eager to use nukes, because even in small scale conflict we do not have confidence to take India conventionally. So lets try to find ways to use nukes. Not sure what their objective is, to use it as defense or to use it at first opportunity presented to us. One big thing is if the world at large see you as a country you is careless in use of nukes it will hurt you more. All this carp is published by them and they also complain of not getting nuke deal. So do you expect world to give nuke deal to a nation itching to use nukes irresponsibly? The biggest enemy of Pakistan is their think tanks.
     
  3. Horus

    Horus ADMINISTRATOR

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    Way too much denialist hypocricy here, which has now come to become the hallmark of any Indian writing on this subject. Looks like every Indian 'analyst' has run out of 'intellectual honesty' , they come up with blatant lies and expect people to believe them.

    India had been developing Parhaar for the past 3 years, and tested that system within 3 months of the Nasr testing. India already was developing the TNW capability, and by no means it was a tit-for-tat for Nasr.


    No no, what we are saying Sir, is that we will finish our rather large Chemical/Biological/Thermobaric/Cluster warhead stockpile on your invading soldiers Before we go nuclear, if anything is left of the Indian IBGs to begin with.
     
  4. Capt.Popeye

    Capt.Popeye ELITE MEMBER

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    Hey aeronut; another "Khayaali Pulao" cooking in the pot, ehh? :azn:

    No less than the Indian National Security Advisor has stated that India's response to "any Nuclear Weapon Attack" will be a complete and unrestrained Nuclear Response from India. Can't be clearer than that, can it? Or do you need a further explanation?

    As for that "supposedly" 'rather large Chemical/Biological/Thermobaric/Cluster warhead stockpile'; that you are attempting to sabre-rattle here; the Indian Military Estt. has already factored that in!
    Hence the trajectory of ever-increasing disparity in Conventional Weaponry that is being pursued.
    In short: TNWs are no "silver bullet" BUT instead are "the ultimate Hara-Kiri Weapon"!

    May be; you ought to consider buying land on the Balochistan-Iran border to find Strategic Depth and to keep yourself as far away from the conflagration? :D
     
  5. ares

    ares BANNED

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    As I have said before, using a low yield nuclear weapon on Indian forces in the hopes that India will not respond with full nuclear retaliation, is the worst possible mistake Pakistan can commit.

    As far as Indian are concerned once it becomes clear to us that Pakistanis are ready escalate the conflict to nuclear level,It becomes a existential danger for India.

    India will do all in its power to destroy Pakistani nuclear strike capaility, even if it means preemptive strategic nuclear strikes seeking to destroy Pakistan nuclear capability, to keep damage to India as minimum as possible(in nuclear terms).

    With induction of SSBNs into Indian Navy is an added bonus in these term, with the ability to launch surprise nuclear strikes.
     
  6. bornmoron

    bornmoron FULL MEMBER

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    HE was the only studios child in Madarsaa,,

     
  7. Foxtrot Alpha

    Foxtrot Alpha STAFF

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    Khayaali pulao in making....damn I love such pulaos, they are akways yummy to eat.
    Will somebody please define Nuclear Deterence for me before going going haywire as if the author has told us something new?....because this write up is nothing but copy paste of definition of Nuclear deterence and hatred towards pakistan with no knowedlge on realities
     
  8. Foxtrot Alpha

    Foxtrot Alpha STAFF

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    Nobody has an itch to use nuke irresponsibly, take it this way, India is the biggest weapons importer, stockpiling on every arsenal they could, should we say the same that Indians have the itch to use their weapons irresponsibly?
    What different is between a terrorist and an Army, both carry weapons and explosives, both kill innocent civilians when invading countries.
     
  9. Black Eagle 90

    Black Eagle 90 BANNED

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    I think we should stop talking about this and talk about something very serious like Nuclear Power Generation?
     
  10. Horus

    Horus ADMINISTRATOR

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    Khiyali Pulao is being cooked by your Generals, Indian Elite and keyboard warmongers, you better worry about that one first.

    Did your NSA tell you about what this 'complete and unrestrained Nuclear Response' will draw from Pakistan? - Ignorant much-are we ?

    What i have stated has been discussed at the highest level of the military,think tanks, NDU circles as well as the policy makers.

    Pakistan will respond conventionally to any invasion FIRST , if it doesn't stop the invasion we'll use all non strategic assets at hand, before opting for TNWs or Neutron devices. Pakistan has a credible stand-off firing capability from Air,Land and Sea to do just that.

    Because the Bhaarti Generals have convinced themselves, by taking refuge in an intelligence defying fallacy that a 'war can be fought under the nuclear threshold.'

    This is a dangerous miscalculation, 'No plan survives at the first contact with the enemy.' - The war will blow out of control and may end up in results your media savvy Generals have not 'factored in.'

    Did you tell that to DRDO, which is busy upgrading Parhaars as we speak, to be able to carry These 'Hara Kiri Weapons' of sub kiloton yield and planning to hand them over to 'Artillery corps'? [Another evidence of Indian Command and Control Immaturity]


    You, may wanna migrate to Sri Lanka the land of 'Rawan' to seek the 'strategic depth' because every Indian stone is within our firing range.


    Peace.
     
  11. Irfan Baloch

    Irfan Baloch SENIOR MODERATOR

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    well lets help Pakistan not to make this unfounded assumption and give up the notion and bravado of quick response and IBGs and that hu ha-... that "mistake" will be in response of that adventurism of crossing the borders enmasse thinking of capturing strategic locations of Pakistan.

    but if using those IBGs is seen very essential and tempting then ... well .. welcome to mutual nuclear wasteland of the sub continent. wont matter who was right or wrong.. there wont be any "matter" anyway.
     
  12. Armstrong

    Armstrong RETIRED TTA

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    Irfan Bhai, bakiii sub kuch chooreiiin....meriii Eidi kidhar haiii ? :azn:
     
  13. Marshmallow

    Marshmallow SENIOR MEMBER

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    Irfan Bhai,whoever dat is,mujeh bi Eidi deyn:tongue:
     
  14. Irfan Baloch

    Irfan Baloch SENIOR MODERATOR

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    and thats what the real "mistake" is. they are risking to loose their multi-billion dollar (give or take) IBGs to nuclear dust hoping that Pakistan wont use the tactical nukes fearing that India would respond with WMDs.. well on the contrary...

    if the tactical nukes are used already then the WMDs will be on the standby already..

    problem is with the assumption that Pakistan will quietly take the beating of IBGs and wont retaliate hence justifying their existence. whereas the potential Pakistani response turns those Surmaa's to critical mass.

    may the God help us all on either side of the border and keep the IBGs exactly where they are. so that their loss doesnt turn into an all out nuclear war
     
  15. Irfan Baloch

    Irfan Baloch SENIOR MODERATOR

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    too bitter to celebrate Eid like before but only on the order of my Holy Prophet Muhammad PBUH I celebrated Eid because its compulsory , although my "fellow" Muslims had turned Ramadan into a funeral month.


    eid Mubarak to you & others and may the victims of TTP, LeJ, BLA etc rest in peace.


    on topic
    looking at the title, I was expecting some sort of a hack or virus attack to deter the Pakistani tactical nuke launch system.
     
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