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Tomcats

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Tropical Cyclone One-A Develops in Arabian Sea; Potential Danger to India, Pakistan Into Next Week

At a Glance

  • A tropical cyclone has developed and is expected to intensify in the Arabian Sea this weekend.
  • To be named Tauktae, it could scrape up the west Indian coast with heavy rain, winds and coastal flooding.
  • Tauktae could then threaten Gujarat state and eastern Pakistan early next week.

A tropical cyclone has developed in the Arabian Sea and is expected to intensify and could become one of the strongest to threaten parts of western India and eastern Pakistan in more than two decades.

Tropical Cyclone One-A continues to organize in the southeastern Arabian Sea, a couple of hundred miles west of southern India's Kerala coast. Meteorologists refer to this disturbance as Invest 92A, a designation for an area of interest that could develop into a tropical cyclone.

This system is expected to be called Cyclone Tauktae (pronounced TAW-tay).
Given an ample supply of warm – about 88 degrees Fahrenheit – deep ocean water, humid air and low wind shear, Tauktae could rapidly intensify into the equivalent of a formidable hurricane this weekend.
The future Tauktae is expected to track toward the north-northwest, generally parallel to the coast of western India, this weekend. The key is how close to the coast Tauktae's center tracks.

For now, the majority of forecast model tracks suggest the center may stay just far enough off the coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra states to spare the most severe impacts. But a few forecast model tracks keep Tauktae closer to the coast, if not an outright landfall. Mumbai – home to 20 million in its metro area – may have a close brush with Tauktae late Sunday night or early Monday.
After that, Tauktae could eventually threaten India's Gujarat state and perhaps southeast Pakistan next week.

It's still too soon to determine if Tauktae will strike one or both of those areas, but it could reach as far north as Pakistan's most populous city, Karachi, and be the strongest in these areas since a May 1999 cyclone made landfall near the India-Pakistan border.

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Potential Path, Timing
(The area in the red-shaded area is where the cyclone's center may track and the general timing of that track. Note that impacts from a tropical cyclone typically occur some distance from the center.)

Potential Impacts
Rainfall flooding

Even if Tauktae's center remains appreciably off western India's coast this weekend, bands of heavy rain are likely to wrap into southwest India, leading to a threat of rainfall flooding. The best chance of heavy rainbands will be over Kerala and Karnataka states. If Tauktae's center tracks farther east and much closer to the coast, a higher threat of heavy rain will spread to Maharashtra state, including Mumbai.

Heavy rain will also accompany Tauktae into Gujarat state and Pakistan, but exactly where the heaviest rain will fall depends on the exact track of Tauktae, which remains uncertain.

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Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday
(Locally heavier amounts are possible where bands of rain train over the same area for a period of a few hours. Rainfall totals farther north are more uncertain and depend on the exact path of Tauktae.)
Coastal Flooding and Storm Surge

Tauktae will generate swells that will ride up the coast of western India this weekend. This may lead to erosion at beaches and at least some coastal flooding, particularly at high tide.
Where more dangerous, life-threatening storm surge could occur remains uncertain and is dependent on the exact track. This would occur as the cyclone makes landfall generally ahead of and just to the east of its landfall location.


Cyclones in Pakistan are even rarer.

Only four cyclones of at least tropical storm strength have tracked within 70 miles of Karachi, home to about 14 million along the southeast coast of Pakistan, in records dating to 1902. A weakening Cyclone Phet was the last to do so as a tropical storm, then depression, in 2010.

But Pakistan's strongest cyclone was the aforementioned May 20, 1999, landfall southeast of Karachi near the India border at Category 3 intensity. According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, an estimated 6,200 were killed in Pakistan from storm surge and heavy rain, despite warnings from the government.

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Visible satellite image of the May 20, 1999, cyclone making landfall in far southeast Pakistan.
(NOAA)

There have been 14 cyclones of at least Category 3 intensity in the Arabian Sea since 1998, including last November's Cyclone Gati, the first hurricane-strength cyclone to hit Somalia on record.
A 2020 study found that while the number of tropical cyclones hasn't increased globally, climate change has contributed to an increase in Arabian Sea cyclones, as well as in other basins, since 1980.

 

Tomcats

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  • Pakistan Meteorological Department issues an alert for a cyclone likely developing in the eastern Arabian sea.
  • Low air pressure is expected in the southeastern Arabian Sea on the morning of May 14.
  • Met dept asks fishermen to remain alert and not venture into the deep sea May 14 onwards.

KARACHI: Pakistani Meteorological Department (PMD) on Wednesday issued an alert for a cyclone likely developing in the eastern Arabian sea.

According to the PMD spokesperson, low air pressure is expected in the southeastern Arabian Sea on the morning of May 14.

The weather department said that due to favourable weather conditions, low air pressure may take the form of a tropical cyclone on May 16.

Maintaining that none of Pakistan's coastal areas is under threat from the developing system, the department nonetheless issued directives for fishermen to remain alert and not venture into the deep sea May 14 onwards.
 

Tomcats

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Sindh CM holds meeting to tackle likely cyclone emergency: Wahab

KARACHI: Chief Minister of Sindh Syed Murad Ali Shah on Saturday chaired a meeting over the situation related to the Arabian Sea cyclone, an aide to the CM said.

Murtaza Wahab, Adviser to Chief Minister of Sindh on Information, in a social media statement said that the session reviewed the arrangements to tackle the likely emergency situation due to the Cyclone Tauktae.


Tropical Cyclone Tauktae, is expected to make a landfall at the western coast of India.
The met office has forecast heavy rainfall in Karachi, Thatta, Badin and other eastern districts of Sindh under the influence of the tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea.

The district administration of Badin has declared emergency and red alert in coastal areas in view of the cyclonic situation.
Deputy Commissioner Badin has imposed section 144 and prohibited fishermen to venture into the sea due to the cyclone.

The fishermen already in the sea have been warned about the situation with the help of the Pakistan Navy.
The Rangers, police and other government agencies have been alerted to tackle any emergency situation.

In view of the cyclonic conditions in Arabian Sea district administration Karachi Central has sent warning notices to the owners of the signboards warning them to remove the signboards forthwith, which could cause losses of life and property.

“The billboard owners will be responsible for the losses of life and property in case of non-compliance and would have to face cases,” the district administration warned.
 

AZADPAKISTAN2009

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Hopefully Sindh Government fixed the Nala of Karachi they have been slowly diging a Nala for 1 year with minimum amount of machinery

Otherwise be ready for Dama Dam Must Qalander
 

El Sidd

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this should give ample opportunity to seek more funds to cater for patron saint of Karachi and his residence.
 

Tomcats

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Fishermen in sea advised to return back to land

KARACHI: The Fishermen’s Cooperative Society has advised the fishermen presently in the sea to return back to the nearby jetties in view of the cyclonic conditions, ARY News reported on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae moving towards Gujarat coast and is expected to make a landfall at the western coast of India.


The fishermen’s body has advised the boats’ captains and sailors to anchor their boats at nearby safe places.” Those anchored at jetties should avoid to venture into the sea,” the society announced.

“The boats came into contact on radio or satellite should immediately move towards safer places,” the fishermen’s society announced.

“The boats nearing the Gadani beach should anchor in the area, while those near Hingol to move for anchorage to the hill, while the boats near the Karachi coast should anchor at Ibrahim Hyderi and Ghorabari beaches,” the society communicated to fishermen.

Earlier, the Fisherfolk Forum had announced that the fishermen’s body has contacted the fishermen in the sea and among 1800 fishing boats, 1350 have returned back.

The fishing boats ventured into the sea for fishing five days before the Eidul Fitr.

 

Tomcats

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Cyclone Tauktae: CAA issues alert for Karachi airport

KARACHI: The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has issued an alert for Jinnah International Airport after Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast heavy rainfall in Karachi from May 17 to 20 under the influence of the Arabian Sea Cyclone Tauktae, ARY News reported on Saturday.

The CAA has directed for taking steps to address an emergency situation and to tackle the strong winds during the tropical cyclone.

“All concerned authorities are advised to remain vigilant and take precautionary measures during the forecast period,” reads the circular issued by the aviation authority.

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The CAA has issued instructions for adding surplus weight with fixed-wing small aircraft and rotary wing (helicopters), Airport Manager Imran Khan said.
Additional Director CAA has issued a notification with regard to precautions during the rough weather.
Moreover, the CAA has also directed for fumigation at the airport to tackle worms during the thunderstorm and deployment of shooters to limit the bird movement in the area.

Read More: Emergency declared in Karachi, coastal belts as powerful Cyclone Tauktae approaches

The Sindh government today declared a cyclone emergency in various districts of the province lying on the coastal belt of the province in wake of Cyclone Tauktae.

The decision was taken in a meeting chaired by Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah today at the CM House. The emergency was imposed in districts as a precaution so that any untoward situation can be avoided.
 
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Bossman

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This is the latest track of the cyclone. It might just skirt Pakistan, but look at its path running parallel to India’s coast and its major population and industrial centers and landing right in the middle of Modi’s country. Another problem on top of the Pandemic. I don’t believe in divine retribution but it seems that the gods are not very happy with India.

BTW it might also impact the monsoons, which are driven by low pressure area over northern India and Pakistan, which develops May/June and pulls in moisture from the South East. The cyclone can compromise the low pressure area as it moves North East

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Tomcats

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Dusty winds blowing in Karachi under cyclonic weather conditions

KARACHI: The weather is changing in Karachi and other coastal districts of Sindh under the influence of Arabian Sea Cyclone Tauktae, ARY News reported on Sunday.

The cyclone’s name ‘Tauktae’ pronounced as TauTe, given by Myanmar. It is a Burmese language word, meaning a lizard.


Dusty winds blowing in the port city and the adjoining areas as the Met Office forecast severe hot and humid weather in the city.

“Presently the winds blowing at 28 KM wind speed that could enhance upto 48 kilometers per hour today,” according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).

PMD Heat Wave Center earlier predicted a hot to very hot weather during next two days. The day time maximum temperature may rise to 40-42 ºCelsius and winds likely to blow from northeast/east especially on 16-17 May (today and tomorrow).

Tropical Cyclone ‘Tauktae’ has intensified into a ‘severe cyclonic storm’ in the Arabian Sea. The storm is expected to make landfall near Dwarka in Indian state of Gujarat near Porbandar around afternoon as a ‘very severe’ cyclonic storm on Tuesday (May 18), according to a weather report.

Based on the existing meteorological conditions, dust/thunderstorm-rain with few moderate to heavy falls with gusty winds of 60-80 Kmph are likely to occur in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot and Sanghar districts during 17-20 May.

Dust/thunderstorm-rains with isolated moderate or heavy falls and gusty winds of 40-60 Kmph are also likely in Karachi, Hyderabad, Jamshoro and Shaeed Banzirabad, during 18-20 May 2021.

Sea Conditions will be rough to very rough and fishermen are advised not to venture in the sea during 16-20 May 2021.

 

Tomcats

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Murad declares emergency in coastal districts of Sindh ahead of Cyclone Tauktae
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FISHING boats are docked at the harbour on Saturday in view of the approaching cyclone.—Shakil Adil/White Star

KARACHI: Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah presiding over a cyclone emergency meeting on Saturday at CM House declared emergency in all the districts located along the coastal belt in order to take precautionary measures to meet any untoward situation.
“A control room should be established at the chief secretary office to keep close coordination with all the districts, in respect of their requirements and giving them necessary instruction on behalf of the government,” he said.
The meeting was attended by Rehabilitation Minister Faraz Dero, Adviser Murtaza Wahab, Chief Secretary Mumtaz Shah and other relevant officials.
A senior meteorologist told the meeting there was a generic term for non-frontal anti-clockwise rotating weather system with surface wind ranging from 34 to 47 knots. He added that it usually caused three types of impacts, including torrential rains, thunderstorms, high-intensity winds and storm surges.

He said that cyclone classification in Pakistan and South Asia caused different kinds of disturbance.
Fishermen advised not to venture into the sea during May 16-20
“Gusty winds and damage in detaching fruit from the tree is caused when a depression develops a pressure of 996 hPa/mb with a wind speed of 22 to 27 knots. When deep depression with a pressure of 986-995 hPa/mb develops with a wind speed of 28 to 33 knots negligible damages are caused to houses, fruit trees, some crops and caravans,” he added.
The Met director said that when the cyclonic storm had a pressure of 971-970 hPa/mb along with a wind speed of 34-47 knots it caused minor damages to houses and significant damage to signboards, trees and small craft.
“Severe cyclone storm emerges when a pressure of 930 to 955 hPa/mb with a speed of 64-89 knots and it causes significant structural damage, caravans blow away. In this way two other categories are extremely severe cyclonic storm and super cyclonic storm, which cause extensive damage to house, power and communication lines,” he said.

Tracks of cyclone
The meeting was told that there were two possible tracks of the cyclone. “If the cyclone crosses Indian Gujarat, then its outer peripheral effect would be on Thatta, Badin, Mirpurkhas, Tharparkar, Umerkot and Sanghar districts. Thatta, Badin and Mirpurkhas would receive heavy rainfall of 70 to 90mm each, Umerkot 80 to 100mm while Tharparkar would receive very heavy rainfall of 230 to 250mm,” he said.

According to the weatherman, in case the cyclone crosses northwest and crosses west of Karachi then its outer peripheral effect would be on Karachi, Hub, Lasbela, Hyderabad and Jamshoro districts. Karachi may receive 60 to 80mm rainfall, Hyderabad 30 to 50 mm, Jamshoro 150-170 mm, Dadu 180 to 200mm, Bela and Sukkur 80 to 100 each and Jacobabad 60 to 80mm.
Another official of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) told the meeting that the depression over southeast Arabian Sea had intensified into a cyclonic storm Tauktae and lay at a distance of about 1,460km south-southeast of Karachi.

He said that the system was likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm (SCS) during the next 12-18 hours and move in north-northwest direction and reach Indian Gujarat by May 18 in the morning.
“Under the influence of this system, widespread heavy to very heavy dust/thunderstorm-rains with gusty winds of 80-100 kilometre per hour (kmph) are likely to occur in Thatta, Badin, Thar, Mirpurkhas, Umerkot and Sanghar districts from May 17 to May 20. Dust/thunderstorm-rains with few heavy falls and gusty winds of 50-70kmph are also likely in Karachi, Hyderabad, Jamshoro, Shaheed Benazirabad, Sukkur, Larkana, Shikarpur, Jacobabad and Dadu during May 18-20. The sea conditions would be rough to very rough and fishermen are advised not to venture in the sea during May 16-20,” he said.

Control room, billboards removal ordered
Keeping in view the presentation given to him, the chief minister directed the administration in Karachi to start clearing all the choking points of nullahs.
He directed the Karachi commissioner and administrator to start removing all the billboards, neon signs and ask the builders to make precautionary measures for security of their under-construction structures.
He directed the PDMA to provide dewatering machines, generators to local administration, where required.
Mr Shah directed fishermen not to go into the deep sea for fishing from Sunday.
He directed the chief secretary to set up a control room in his office and post a BS-19 offer as its head to receive requirements from districts and issue necessary instructions to the administration on behalf of the government.
He directed Tharparkar district administration to take extraordinary measures because it was expected to receive very heavy rains. All the district administrations should make alternative accommodation arrangements, in case shifting of people became necessary.
He directed the chief secretary to seek the requirement of funds from the district administration and ensure timely releases. The district administration was also directed to set up control rooms in their districts.
He also issued directives to the irrigation minister to declare emergency in his department and keep proper monitoring of the embankments of the canals and distributaries.
He also directed the LG and rehabilitation ministers to stay in Karachi and personally monitor each and every arrangement.
Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2021
 

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