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Crowd Estimation: Maryam Nawaz Jalsa in Fateh Jang | May 5, 2022

Amaa'n

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Aug 19, 2012
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Alright!!!

Let me start by saying this was not easy as I thought it would be. First I had to spend one hour only to ensure I got the right venue. It’s not like there were so many places to go over in a small town of Fateh Jang, but it was still a tough call to make b/w two venues. I had to confirm if the event took place at Fateh Jang Stadium or at Unique Sports Stadium. Here is how I confirmed that the event took place at Fateh Jang Stadium:
1651876941122.png
1651876967494.png


The Venue

Considering I got the venue to be correct, lets look at the size of the stadium and how much crowd capacity it has.

According to the measurements taken with Google Earth aswell as Mapchecking.com , Fateh Jang Stadium has an area of 358,654 sq ft (that can be used for holding crowd)
1651877005498.png

Using Jacob’s method, according to which in a very densely populated space, an individual takes up space of 5 sq ft or less. The stadium has a crowd capacity of almost 1,30,000 – 1,35,000. However it is to be noted that this based on the calculation for the above mentioned area.

The Setup

Wasn’t an easy job but finally I found some good quality images to show how stage and venue was set up for the Jalsa.

1651877088891.png

Notice how far, stage has been set up from the Tree Line. We will measure the distance from Tree line to the stage and stage to the crowd area using houses as reference
1651877142679.png


1651877167635.png


The Crowd

Using the mosque (which is built in the stadium ground) as reference point, notice how dense is crowd towards the stage area while as you move towards the middle, you start to see empty area

1651877210388.png

Another video shared shows the same that while Ms Maryam safdar was delivering her speech, the area closer to the stage was densely crowded while after the mosque, we start to see all lot of empty space i.e crowd is dispersed / scattered

1651877223331.png

Another video shared by Siasat.pk shows the aerial view while Ms Maryam safdar was taking pledge from the audience:

1651877241560.png

Source

Estimating the Crowd

Jacob’s method demands that in order to measure the crowd it is best to divide the crowd into sector’s based on density.

Let’s see how our venue would look like

1651877322812.png


With that being done, lets look at the area :

In order to omit errors while taking measurement let’s just round up the number and say, area was 130,000 sq ft
1651878470840.png

With a jammed pack crowd density of 4 sq ft / person the calculation would look like this

130,000 sq ft / 4 sq ft = 32,500 individuals

Lets move onto the people who were standing or being seated on the sides of the ground.

Over the area of 16,000sq ft on both sides combined, with crowd density of 6 sq ft / person, number of individuals on the side will be 2500 – 2600

Let’s not forget a crowd of 100 to 200 folks who came just to get their share of chicken pulao …



Hope this puts everything to rest …..

Don’t forget that Fateh Jang has close proximity of Attock, Rawalpindi, Taxila hence it is not difficult to attract such crowd. I know people who traveled 70km to attend this jalsa….most of these folks were following the orders of local Malaks.

I will also add that above crowd was estimated to be present at it's peak and based on all lot of footages available, many started to leave the venue as soon as Maryam safdar was in the middle of her speech:



 
Last edited:

M. Sarmad

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Nice effort ... But based primarily on assumptions

Based on low quality footage and vague photos, You are assuming that 130,000 sq ft was jam packed, and you have again assumed that the density was as high as 1 person /4 sq ft throughout the area you marked as crowded. That clearly is not the case ... Generous assumptions at best
 

khail007

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Mar 25, 2008
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Alright!!!

Let me start by saying this was not easy as I thought it would be. First I had to spend one hour only to ensure I got the right venue. It’s not like there were so many places to go over in a small town of Fateh Jang, but it was still a tough call to make b/w two venues. I had to confirm if the event took place at Fateh Jang Stadium or at Unique Sports Stadium. Here is how I confirmed that the event took place at Fateh Jang Stadium:
View attachment 841577 View attachment 841580

The Venue

Considering I got the venue to be correct, lets look at the size of the stadium and how much crowd capacity it has.

According to the measurements taken with Google Earth aswell as Mapchecking.com , Fateh Jang Stadium has an area of 358,654 sq ft (that can be used for holding crowd)
View attachment 841581
Using Jacob’s method, according to which in a very densely populated space, an individual takes up space of 5 sq ft or less. The stadium has a crowd capacity of almost 1,30,000 – 1,35,000. However it is to be noted that this based on the calculation for the above mentioned area.

The Setup

Wasn’t an easy job but finally I found some good quality images to show how stage and venue was set up for the Jalsa.

View attachment 841584
Notice how far, stage has been set up from the Tree Line. We will measure the distance from Tree line to the stage and stage to the crowd area using houses as reference
View attachment 841585

View attachment 841587

The Crowd

Using the mosque (which is built in the stadium ground) as reference point, notice how dense is crowd towards the stage area while as you move towards the middle, you start to see empty area

View attachment 841588
Another video shared shows the same that while Ms Maryam safdar was delivering her speech, the area closer to the stage was densely crowded while after the mosque, we start to see all lot of empty space i.e crowd is dispersed / scattered

View attachment 841589
Another video shared by Siasat.pk shows the aerial view while Ms Maryam safdar was taking pledge from the audience:

View attachment 841590
Source

Estimating the Crowd

Jacob’s method demands that in order to measure the crowd it is best to divide the crowd into sector’s based on density.

Let’s see how our venue would look like

View attachment 841592

With that being done, lets look at the area :

In order to omit errors while taking measurement let’s just round up the number and say, area was 130,000 sq ft
View attachment 841599
With a jammed pack crowd density of 4 sq ft / person the calculation would look like this

130,000 sq ft / 4 sq ft = 32,500 individuals

Lets move onto the people who were standing or being seated on the sides of the ground.

Over the area of 16,000sq ft on both sides combined, with crowd density of 6 sq ft / person, number of individuals on the side will be 2500 – 2600

Let’s not forget a crowd of 100 to 200 folks who came just to get their share of chicken pulao …



Hope this puts everything to rest …..

Don’t forget that Fateh Jang has close proximity of Attock, Rawalpindi, Taxila hence it is not difficult to attract such crowd. I know people who traveled 70km to attend this jalsa….most of these folks were following the orders of local Malaks.

I will also add that above crowd was estimated to be present at it's peak and based on all lot of footages available, many started to leave the venue as soon as Maryam safdar was in the middle of her speech:




Sir G, salute your unparalleled efforts to separate truth from lies using the modern world's tools and technology.

ALLAH SWT blesses you and your family with his kindness to speak or point out the truth in this era of darkness in Pakistan.

Appreciate your brilliant skills and how logically you explained everything referring to the standards of international rules and regulations.

No doubt left for anyone for ifs and buts.
 

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