What's new

CPEC - stalled and lost momentum?

Indus Pakistan

ELITE MEMBER
May 7, 2012
19,416
188
56,630
Country
Pakistan
Location
United Kingdom
North Western Punjab is being tied into the Western Corridor by the M-14 motorway which is about to be completed this summer. This begins near Islamabad and heads south west joining the Western Corridor in Khyber Pakhtunkwa at Yarik-Dera Ismail Khan.

1612748513499.png


1612748711670.png
 

Ahmet Pasha

BANNED
May 23, 2017
9,007
-5
9,165
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
North Western Punjab is being tied into the Western Corridor by the M-14 motorway which is about to be completed this summer. This begins near Islamabad and heads south west joining the Western Corridor in Khyber Pakhtunkwa at Yarik-Dera Ismail Khan.

View attachment 714480

View attachment 714481
They're reinforcing the Mianwali/DI Khan/Khoshab/Talagang route then which only used to be country dirt mountain roads. Nice. Nato trucks also used this route.
 

The Accountant

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Aug 13, 2016
7,633
19
9,127
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Okay it's been some five years since the launch of CPEC so we can have audit of progress and see if it has lived upto it's expectations. My view is it has delivered some progress but failed to bring substantive change to Pakistan as I would have liked to seen.

Frankly I am disappointed. What could have been has been missed. CPEC offered the possibility to entirely rework the economy of Pakistan. Bring about a revolution in the way the country traded and opened new vistas. Most importantly it offered the possibility of the corrupt, rentier parasite economic linkages that have taken root in Pakistan and are choking competition. What is wrong with Pakistan's economy? everything as it stands. When a economy of 200 million people can only generate $20 billion exports and the country is forced to live on the ex-pat worker remittances of $22 billion it tells us about what type of industry and trading class we have in Pakistan. They are just rent seekers who do not add value but just export basic products. A good example is Pink Salt which as we know is mined and exported raw to India for it to be processed and sold as brand India with 10 times value addition.

The present rent seeking, mafia economy is established along the eastern corridor which runs from Peshawar-Lahore-Multan-Sukker-Karachi. Decades of investment dating even from the British era rail system has laid infrastructure along this corridor. Rail and roads all go along this corridor discharging into the only port Karachi. The entire economic and trading system of 200 million people is hinged on Karachi as it is the port there thatr interfaces with the global economy. You want to import a truck from Japan, a car from Germany, a industrial lathe from France, Swiss clock for any of the 200 million purchasers in Pakistan those products will land at Karachi port and then move along the transport infra of the eastern corridor.

On the other hand whether your a salt miner in Khewra, a Lap;is Lazuli exporter in Peshawar, a sports manufacturer in Sialkot, a tile maker in Multan your goods will travel along that transport infra of the eastern corridor to be exported at Karachi port.

So the entire trading order is lynched on Karachi pivoted on Karachi and geared towards minimum value addition and reliant on subsidies or monopolies. Competition is seen as sin. This is why despite everything Pakistani industry will continue to be feeble and fail to take off like Bangladesh has. The rent seekers will just make excuses come PTI, PPP, PML.

The infographic below sums up the lay of the eastern corridor. Karachi is vital and is the final point where a national level "bhatta tax" is inflicted by various vested interests in that city which tend to be either PPP or MQM controlled. The entire 1,000 mile corridor will be get stuck here unless some money is not exchanged.

View attachment 713009


CPEC however offered a tantalising possibility of breaking this entrenched rent seeking economic order thart has taken root over the decades with chockehold at Karach port that has the entire country hostage. As explained above the economic activity of 200 million people rests at the only port to the outside world.

How so? Gwadar. It offered the possibility of a new port. A possibility of a alternative that would break the chokehold of Karachi. It would offer a chance for a new economic corridor to open up. With it it would bring competition and finally some fresh vigour to the Pakistan economy. This would force change in the eastern corridor as monopoly would be broken with rise of Western economic corridor. Please refer to infographic below.

View attachment 713010


For this to work though it is not enough to build a Port at Gwadar. It also needs the Western corridor built that would mean motorways and railways running north to Quetta-DG-Khan-Islamabad-Peshawar with one spur going to Multan-Lahore. The Chinese role was crucial as it would require at least $25 billion to build up the required infra to link Gwadar with 200 million people of Pakistan along the Western Corridor.

Sadly and tragically this has not happened. Gwadar Port has been built up but the Western Corridor only exists on paper. Some roads are being built but these will never rival the rail and motorway infra of the Eastern Corridor. So all trade will by definition continue rolling along the established eastern corridor, The present monopolies will continue to function as they are.

Frankly Gwadar Port is like a beached Whale that is not going anywhere. Let us just think from the POV of a exporter in Sialkot. Do you think you will send your products by truck or rail to Karachi and then have them trucked another 200 miles along the Makran Highway to Gwadar? You would be pretty dumb to do that. As you could easily use Port Qasim or Port Karachi. Why would you add another 200 miles of road and all the costs and time that would imply. For sake of using Gwadar? That is ridicalous.

The other possibilty is use the Quetta-Gwadar route or the alignment of the Western Corridior. The problem is the roads are terrible and law/order is not ideal. Why not just use the excellant M2-M3-M4-M5 motorways to Karach Port? So I am afraid as long as the Western Corridor does not recieve at least $25 billion to build proper motorway followed by proper security Gwadar will remain a beached whale and a white elephant with some ships forced to land there just for photo-ops.

Why the Chinese have not continued with CPEC with the gusto they showed at the outset is another subject we need to look at. But as thing stand CPEC has failed to bring transformation to Pakistan's economy. It has however brought some short term benefits. But sadly not the revolution we all hoped it would bring in.

CPEC has stalled.




In short why would you do this and add almost 200 miles transport costs so you can shout "GWADAR"?

View attachment 713014
My friend i am unable to get the jist of the article. What do u think CPEC is all about ? Is it about getting a route alternate to Karachi ? What difference will it make ? The port or transportation charges paid on import or export through karachi are not payable in Gawadar ?

What is real objective of CPEC?

The real objective of CPEC was to connect chinese and Pakistani economy on the lines EU. With the increase in per capita income of china they r become cosyly for low paid jobs such as assembly, packing and basic manufacturing which involves human force i.e. labor intensive.

So idea was to transfer those jobs to Pakistan.

CPEC2.0 was all about this launch in late 2019 but got slowed due to covid19.

Once covid 19 restrictions r minimised we will see a surge in these activities as well.

Wirh respect to gawadar, its just a port which is an alternative to already over crowded karachi. Otherwise it is not going to give any other significant advantage over karachi.

Mqm is long gone. Ppp has no power to effect trading activities.
 

Yankee-stani

ELITE MEMBER
Aug 22, 2018
8,107
1
12,222
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
Never understood why the Western Corridor wasn't the first projects done the East should have been at least 2nd priority what type of de centralized planning mess is this then again it's still wait and see
 

Indus Pakistan

ELITE MEMBER
May 7, 2012
19,416
188
56,630
Country
Pakistan
Location
United Kingdom
My friend i am unable to get the jist of the article. What do u think CPEC is all about ? Is it about getting a route alternate to Karachi ? What difference will it make ? The port or transportation charges paid on import or export through karachi are not payable in Gawadar ?

What is real objective of CPEC?

The real objective of CPEC was to connect chinese and Pakistani economy on the lines EU. With the increase in per capita income of china they r become cosyly for low paid jobs such as assembly, packing and basic manufacturing which involves human force i.e. labor intensive.

So idea was to transfer those jobs to Pakistan.

CPEC2.0 was all about this launch in late 2019 but got slowed due to covid19.

Once covid 19 restrictions r minimised we will see a surge in these activities as well.

Wirh respect to gawadar, its just a port which is an alternative to already over crowded karachi. Otherwise it is not going to give any other significant advantage over karachi.

Mqm is long gone. Ppp has no power to effect trading activities.
CPEC is about many things.

  • Provide the Western half of the country as defined by the north-south axis a port in addition offer Afghanistan, Central Asia the most effective way to sealanes
  • In addition introduce alternative port to Karachi thus bringing competition which is good for all
  • Allowing another economic corridor to develop the neglected western flank of the country
  • improve basic communication thus reduce cost of business
  • attract Chinese investors thus shake up the business regime in Pakistan
  • bring about social and political change so the country is better fit with global trading order.
This is a quick take from my reading.
 

jupiter2007

SENIOR MEMBER
Feb 19, 2007
4,402
-1
3,192
He's not a Karachiite firstly.

Let Gwadar bypass Karachi. We'll happily take it. Just give back us Karachiites control of our city from Sindhi feudal lords from Larkana and Dadu.

Even a post about CPEC has to somehow draw in Karachi some way or the other @PaklovesTurkiye @mikkix @jupiter2007

We live in their minds rent free.
Just the businesses in Lalukhet (commercial area and supper market) pay more taxes than entire city of Lahore. lalukhet, tiny small dot in the middle of the Karachi.
1612765346219.png




Can you imagine if we count the all the business in Karachi, Karachi tax collection will be more than whole Pakistan. But establishment doesn't care about Karachi. They care more about keeping balance of power between MQM-P and PPP.
 

Kabira

BANNED
Jul 12, 2014
14,396
-20
13,643
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Just the businesses in Lalukhet (commercial area and supper market) pay more taxes than entire city of Lahore. lalukhet, tiny small dot in the middle of the Karachi.
View attachment 714536



Can you imagine if we count the all the business in Karachi, Karachi tax collection will be more than whole Pakistan. But establishment doesn't care about Karachi. They care more about keeping balance of power between MQM-P and PPP.

 

ziaulislam

ELITE MEMBER
Apr 22, 2010
15,221
10
14,589
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
ML1 not started yet
Gwadar power plant still no sign of it
Gwadar Port extension nothing happening
Sukuur Hyderabad Motorway no work
Dhabeji Rashakai Gwadar Economic Zone nothing much on it
Havelian Dry port no work
660 MW Thar Coal Power plant work at snail pace
330 MW Thal Nova Thar Coal project not started
1320 MW SSRL Thar Coal project not started
600 MW Quaid-e-Azam Solar power Project still pending
Gwadar Eastbay delayed still under construction
Gwadar Airport working at snail pace
Gwadar hospital no sign of it
Gwadar free zone no work being done
Karachi Circular Railway LOL
Quetta Mass Transit nothing on ground
Peshawar Greater Circular Train Nothing on it
It park worth $1.2 billion in Islamabad nothing on it
Mohmand Marble City no work being done
AJK economic zone nothing being done


If someone says CPEC is still underway and is under construction he should shut up this Government is just not doing anything on CPEC these projects are the short and Medium term projects these doesn't include any long term projects

Yeah some Hydropower projects like Suki Kinari and Karot are under Construction while Kohala Azad Pattan are still pending
Problem is cost..
Chinese are taking a very high rate of return
Making power so expensive that manufacturing cant compete

Also sukkur motorway was remodeled for same reason debt..

Surprisngly on BOT bases the cost will be lower(in $$) and built by a local company rather then chinese(a compulsory thing under chinese financing)

We werent selective ans careful with it..hence the problem


Gawadar will only grow if connections are completed and manufacturing is introduced via cheap land and cheap power

So far gawadar HAS NO ELECTRICITY and NO connections


Govt needs to build 2 more ports in between gawadar and karachi and provide good acess power and free land for manufacturing

Juat building an outpost with nothing isnt going to work

China built multiple new cities on coasts
 

jupiter2007

SENIOR MEMBER
Feb 19, 2007
4,402
-1
3,192
Pakistan must invite other countries to invest in Pakistan and loan interest must low. If Chinese continue to invest in Pakistan, they will eventually own 50% of Pakistan.
 

Verve

ELITE MEMBER
May 15, 2014
10,266
10
14,112
Country
Pakistan
Location
United Kingdom


@Indus Pakistan - another entry route just recently announced by new GB (PTI) govt ... there will be more, likely through Wakhan Corridor when Afghanistan is settled.

This new route will be flatter hence bigger road and far less dangerous than KKH.

CPEC hasn't slowed down, it has geared up!
 
Last edited:

imranyounus

FULL MEMBER
Jan 10, 2010
171
0
112
Gawadar will only grow if connections are completed and manufacturing is introduced via cheap land and cheap power

So far gawadar HAS NO ELECTRICITY and NO connections


Govt needs to build 2 more ports in between gawadar and karachi and provide good acess power and free land for manufacturing
Definitely agreed we need to develop whole coastal areas. it's not too much. Pakistan navy already has base in Ormara and a city with decent port can be deployed similarly passni is also a good location. these three ports along with two in Karachi and additional on in kati bandar can be linked with a larger coastal highway.

as far as links I will again reiterated that what we need was a simple central link. Which was most practical approach. it could have been build faster and is more secure. once this road is build and economic activities start you will get resources to build more roads. and that will be need as traffic grows and more countries join in.

Currently our situation is such that we have started building a mega mall spending our resources without ensuring that we will be left with any resources to fill it with groceries.
 

Turingsage

FULL MEMBER
Sep 28, 2014
1,542
-19
2,388
Country
India
Location
United Kingdom
Gwadar is just a navel observation and possibly R&R for the Chinese navy. Already the Chinese are fenced into their little bit of China with golf courses and hotels while the natives do not even have clean water to drink. Nothing more. All the grandiose fantasies about an Oil pipeline to China or a new Dubai is for the cuckoos
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom